Thoughts on TESLA

[Mr. Tightwad]

I am neutral about Tesla cars or the company. I have said the cars are not bad (but may not be as great as the fans say). It does not really matter to me anyway, because I do not care about cars.

What I am negative about is its CEO. Way too much BS, particularly about engineering things that I know a bit about. I have not worked in these fields, but understand enough to listen to other engineering experts with hand-on experience in these fields, and I can tell BS from the truth.

If Tesla the company goes down the tube, I will feel bad for the many engineers who work there. They are the ones who actually deliver, not the guy who tweets and claims all the credit.

Yes, you are neutral. Always have been.

I'd hate to see Tesla fail. Getting away from GM and Ford is a good thing to me.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have always been one who likes to cheer for the underdogs, someone who challenges the status quo, and to dare do something different.

But, but, but all those tweet things are just awful, particularly all the names calling. Good grief! If you want to be a leader, act as a leader, not as a little kid. And keep down the hubris.

And even leaders cannot know everything. They know to surround themselves with experts in different fields, and know to seek advice.

 

[Totoro]

I haven't had any trouble with it. I haven't heard any complaints from anybody I know with one.

I've heard quite a few. Of the few owners (Model S) I've talked to, all of them had issues that required going back to the shop. Not in the battery, nor the engine. Everything else basically has issues, from door hinges to software glitches.

The biggest "buyer beware" item though is the interior quality: it's not up to Mercedes or BMW standards, while priced at that level.

From the news articles I've read that seems to be consistent. Still think they should have gone OEM for bulk production and focus on battery technology only, with a small luxury lineup as 'flagship' products.

 

[kcowan]

I have always been one who likes to cheer for the underdogs, someone who challenges the status quo, and to dare do something different.

But, but, but all those tweet things are just awful, particularly all the names calling. Good grief! If you want to be a leader, act as a leader, not as a little kid. And keep down the hubris.

And even leaders cannot know everything. They know to surround themselves with experts in different fields, and know to seek advice.

yes and I think their look at the next quarter with no mention of the impending cash crunch is downright irresponsible, reminiscent of pump-and-dump CEOs tactics, i.e. pump the stock price to make financing cheaper.

 

[kcowan]

I'd hate to see Tesla fail. Getting away from GM and Ford is a good thing to me.

yup I understand your feelings. But I am confused. Why did you not keep an ICE vehicle for long distance driving? There has to be something unique about your circumstances that enables you to have 2 EVs?

 

[Zathras]

yes and I think their look at the next quarter with no mention of the impending cash crunch is downright irresponsible, reminiscent of pump-and-dump CEOs tactics, i.e. pump the stock price to make financing cheaper.

What “cash crunch” is that?

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Consumer Report just releases its reliability ratings for Tesla cars.

Model S: below average
Model 3: average.

Originally Posted by ERD50
And the EV fans keep pointing out that the EV drive train is so much simpler than an ICE and transmission, so many fewer moving parts. That should mean much higher reliability for an EV, no? Umm, I guess "no".

So the reliability of the common parts (suspension, doors, windows, accessories, etc) must really be awful in the Tesla, to bring the overall average reliability down?

-ERD50

... I haven't had any trouble with it. I haven't heard any complaints from anybody I know with one. ...

I don't doubt that, but I'll take CRs imperfect rating system, based on data, over anecdote.

... There is one thing I can guarantee. The negative headlines about Tesla will continue in the media. ...

The flip side of that is Tesla also gets tons and tons of positive headlines in the media. The greenies are falling all over themselves praising the car for being "pollution free" and "saving the planet" (neither of which are true).

They are different, so will attract more headlines, positive and negative.

... Now, in closing, who among those that have bashed Tesla and negatively wrote about them in this thread( I'm referring to the 2 or 3 that do so with every comment), will admit that for the 3rd quarter at least, they were wrong?

You should name names, we're all 'friends' here.

I don't consider myself a Tesla 'basher', do you? I do challenge statements that I feel don't add up, like the environmental claims. We haven't heard from poster Zathras in a while (edit - hah! and then I cross post with him!) , he once claimed that "range anxiety" was a thing of the past, because Tesla improved their algorithm for determining remaining miles, and would provide directions to the nearest charging station. Now that's a stretch if I ever heard one. With that logic, I could have a 3 gallon tank in my car, since I'm never more than 60 miles from a gas station - no problem!


-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's some more info on the reliability rating of the Model S from Consumer Report. Tesla as a brand is rated at 27, out of a list of 29 that CR rated. Volvo gets to wear the dunce cap, followed by Cadillac, then Tesla.

It was said that most of the problems were with the car suspension system. Tesla claimed that it has been fixed.

See: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/tes...-third-worst-in-us-consumer-reports-says.html.

 

[aja8888]

Here's some more info on the reliability rating of the Model S from Consumer Report.

It was said that most of the problems were with the car suspension system. Tesla claimed that it has been fixed.

See: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/tes...-third-worst-in-us-consumer-reports-says.html.

Suspension parts are wear items. They include, but are not limited to, ball joints, sway bar bushings, control arm bushings, tie rod ends, struts, shock absorbers, power steering racks, etc. All conventional sedans and other similar cars have these and they all need replacement after so many miles. Sometimes, manufacturers buy cheap OEM parts and you can expect failures sooner.

Brake pads, rotors, wheel bearings, etc are also wear items as are door open/close mechanisms, window track and openers, etc, etc.

With the exception of the driveline, Teslas are no different than any SUV or sedan made today.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

yup I understand your feelings. But I am confused. Why did you not keep an ICE vehicle for long distance driving? There has to be something unique about your circumstances that enables you to have 2 EVs?

If I were to take a long distance drive, there are Tesla superchargers. There are other charging stations. Volkswagen is installing chargers at 100 Wal Marts in 34 states (they claim by 6/30/19).

I live near Pasadena, CA. Maybe 260 miles from Vegas. My range is 310. I could get there without stopping if I tried. (haven't done it, if I do I will report back). But who does that? Sitting for so long is bad whether its at w*rk, home or in a vehicle. I'm 56, I need to pee. So I could stop at Barstow or Baker, get my In n Out, hit the boys room, do whatever else I need, all while I'm charging, and be off.

When I drove to Vegas in my Prius, I'd stop 2-3 times each way. With moving my legs a priority.

True, a Leaf or Bolt wouldn't work with just what I discussed. Those vehicles are for staying 75/120 miles within home. Those vehicles pair well with what you said, keeping an ICE to give you the two options.

Yet, when my Vegas drive gets discussed here, its met with accusations of insanity, that how could anybody have such a miserable drive, etc.

I think I answered your question. If I didn't let me know.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I don't doubt that, but I'll take CRs imperfect rating system, based on data, over anecdote.




The flip side of that is Tesla also gets tons and tons of positive headlines in the media. The greenies are falling all over themselves praising the car for being "pollution free" and "saving the planet" (neither of which are true).

They are different, so will attract more headlines, positive and negative.



You should name names, we're all 'friends' here.

I don't consider myself a Tesla 'basher', do you? I do challenge statements that I feel don't add up, like the environmental claims. We haven't heard from poster Zathras in a while (edit - hah! and then I cross post with him!) , he once claimed that "range anxiety" was a thing of the past, because Tesla improved their algorithm for determining remaining miles, and would provide directions to the nearest charging station. Now that's a stretch if I ever heard one. With that logic, I could have a 3 gallon tank in my car, since I'm never more than 60 miles from a gas station - no problem!


-ERD50

1) Tesla gets way more negative press than positive in the media. The media understands it needs the bills to be paid. Tesla isn't contributing to that. Hence, negative headlines galore.

2) You are a Tesla basher. You can be relied upon to write negative comments about Tesla. Thats fine, we all have our likes and dislikes. I dislike cars that emit disgusting fumes. We all go our separate paths.

3) Acknowledging your status as a Tesla basher is necessary for recovery, just like alcoholism.

 

[NW-Bound]

Suspension parts are wear items...

Sometimes, manufacturers buy cheap OEM parts and you can expect failures sooner...

With the exception of the driveline, Teslas are no different than any SUV or sedan made today.

Indeed.

Tesla acknowledged the problem, and said "The suspension issues that some Model S customers experienced primarily in 2017 were due to a supplier-related issue that did not pose any threat to vehicle safety or drivability, and presented itself only when the car was parked. The issue has already been addressed for customer vehicles in the field and resolved at the source with fundamental design improvements."

But it already got a black eye for the problem. Maybe next year, its reliability rating will improve.

 

[ERD50]

1) Tesla gets way more negative press than positive in the media. The media understands it needs the bills to be paid. Tesla isn't contributing to that. Hence, negative headlines galore. ...

How do you come to that conclusion? I see negative and positive, not sure how I'd measure the relative weights, I'm curious how you do this. I follow a lot of renewable energy news (always the optimist), and those sites strike me as overwhelmingly positive on Tesla. If I go to a site run by a Tesla short, I'll see negative. How to weight all this?

A headline is a headline. On any subject, the press often does positive one week, negative the other. We see it in the financial magazines.

...
2) You are a Tesla basher. You can be relied upon to write negative comments about Tesla. Thats fine, we all have our likes and dislikes. I dislike cars that emit disgusting fumes. We all go our separate paths.

3) Acknowledging your status as a Tesla basher is necessary for recovery, just like alcoholism.

Show me a few posts from me that you consider 'bashing'.

I don't dislike Teslas. I don't know what you are talking about. I do dislike false claims about EVs, or anything, for that matter.

-ERD50

 

[JoeWras]

Ah, the old "supplier problem."

Good manufacturing practice means the corp has to go through a lot of pain and testing to qualify their suppliers, both initially, and ongoing.

 

[beowulf]

If I were to take a long distance drive, there are Tesla superchargers. There are other charging stations. Volkswagen is installing chargers at 100 Wal Marts in 34 states (they claim by 6/30/19).

I know I cut out a lot of your post and I don't know a whole lot about Teslas. So I went to a site called Plug In America that purports to show every Supercharger in the US plus planned ones. Not sure what the difference is between a Tesla Supercharger and an Exxon (or other brand one), but most of the non-Teslas charge for the service. And it's not that low - some are $9.00 for the connection and then either some amount for each KWh or minute. Can you charge a Tesla at any of these and vice versa? Meaning a non Tesla at a Tesla site. While I'm sure the future will make EV charging stations as common as gas stations, however, I think that time is several years away.

I drive cross country twice a year. I can't imagine having to plot a route, between charging stations and motels based on what I see on the Plug In site. I can see the attraction for a Tesla, but I just don't see that as a choice for everyone, even if they can afford one. As soon as you leave a major population center, there are some pretty long gaps, even on major interstates. And worse, quite a few of those stations are at places where I wouldn't want to stay overnight. Route 10 across southern Texas is my preferred route to the west coast, especially in the winter. 40 is a bad choice when there is a possibility of snow. It take me 2 days to traverse Texas and each leg is about 400 miles. That's about 2 1/4 tanks of gas for me. And I can cover it with about 2 10 minute gas stops. Not to mention, where would I find a Tesla repair station if I needed one. Please don't say they don't break down. My good friend Murphy tells me that his law is still in effect. And I'm sure John at the local Stop and Gas wouldn't have a clue how to fix one. He'd probably spend 10 minutes looking for the engine.

I guess it's the same as being an early adopter of any new technology. You have to take the good with the not so good.

 

[aja8888]

Ah, the old "supplier problem."

Good manufacturing practice means the corp has to go through a lot of pain and testing to qualify their suppliers, both initially, and ongoing.

Exactly, In a previous life, the plant I was Manager of plant that supplied exhaust connection components (flex couplings) to a major auto manufacturer. We were sole supplier due to our welding technology. The manufacturer went so far as to pay a third party QC engineer to sit in our plant and witness and review our test acceptance procedures and test runs of the flex assemblies. No junk here!

 

[JoeWras]

Exactly, In a previous life, the plant I was Manager of plant that supplied exhaust connection components (flex couplings) to a major auto manufacturer. We were sole supplier due to our welding technology. The manufacturer went so far as to pay a third party QC engineer to sit in our plant and witness and review our test acceptance procedures and test runs of the flex assemblies. No junk here!

Yeah, and in my opinion, it is not good form to blame a supplier. That's the company's problem and should not be of any concern to the customers.

Then again, the response was to CNBC, so I suppose it is to the investing audience. In that case, as an investor I'd wonder what kind of controls does Tesla have on the supply chain quality.

Edit: the whole airbag issue kind of has set a bad precedent of blaming suppliers I suppose.

 

[aja8888]

Yeah, and in my opinion, it is not good form to blame a supplier. That's the company's problem and should not be of any concern to the customers.

Then again, the response was to CNBC, so I suppose it is to the investing audience. In that case, as an investor I'd wonder what kind of controls does Tesla have on the supply chain quality.

Edit: the whole airbag issue kind of has set a bad precedent of blaming suppliers I suppose.

In my case, which was decades ago, OEM suppliers had to meet buyer standards, and that typically meant the warranty period (cycles, life, etc). Back then, non-OEM parts were real junk and met no standard of OEM quality. EX: Our connector was stainless steel, had double wall, 9 different welds and was $80. Non OEM (aftermarket) was not stainless, single wall and had 4 poor welds; $25.

Today, I bet we have a different problem with OEM quality since most parts are made overseas and OEM inspection stuff is harder to implement. Top that off with various manufacturers wanting to cut weight and costs, you may end up with inferior materials being used in place of higher strength and durability. This is especially true with synthetic parts in suspensions (bushing materials) and interior fabrics and plastics.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I know I cut out a lot of your post and I don't know a whole lot about Teslas. So I went to a site called Plug In America that purports to show every Supercharger in the US plus planned ones. Not sure what the difference is between a Tesla Supercharger and an Exxon (or other brand one), but most of the non-Teslas charge for the service. And it's not that low - some are $9.00 for the connection and then either some amount for each KWh or minute. Can you charge a Tesla at any of these and vice versa? Meaning a non Tesla at a Tesla site. While I'm sure the future will make EV charging stations as common as gas stations, however, I think that time is several years away.

I drive cross country twice a year. I can't imagine having to plot a route, between charging stations and motels based on what I see on the Plug In site. I can see the attraction for a Tesla, but I just don't see that as a choice for everyone, even if they can afford one. As soon as you leave a major population center, there are some pretty long gaps, even on major interstates. And worse, quite a few of those stations are at places where I wouldn't want to stay overnight. Route 10 across southern Texas is my preferred route to the west coast, especially in the winter. 40 is a bad choice when there is a possibility of snow. It take me 2 days to traverse Texas and each leg is about 400 miles. That's about 2 1/4 tanks of gas for me. And I can cover it with about 2 10 minute gas stops. Not to mention, where would I find a Tesla repair station if I needed one. Please don't say they don't break down. My good friend Murphy tells me that his law is still in effect. And I'm sure John at the local Stop and Gas wouldn't have a clue how to fix one. He'd probably spend 10 minutes looking for the engine.

I guess it's the same as being an early adopter of any new technology. You have to take the good with the not so good.

I've never seen an Exxon charger. Yes the chargers do cost money. Far less than gasoline costs. I get free supercharging for my Model X. Tesla's can charge on 110, level 2 (240) or on superchargers. meaning they can use any option. Other EV's can't use the Tesla system. A year or two from now, Tesla chargers and Volkswagen's will be far more common.

Your second paragraph is the reason some people will never transition to an EV. Or will have one of each. Also those in colder climates will reduce their range in an EV, so they might not find an EV suitable. There are reasons to keep an ICE. I just don't have any.

 

[NW-Bound]

... Not sure what the difference is between a Tesla Supercharger and an Exxon (or other brand one), but most of the non-Teslas charge for the service. And it's not that low - some are $9.00 for the connection and then either some amount for each KWh or minute. Can you charge a Tesla at any of these and vice versa? Meaning a non Tesla at a Tesla site. While I'm sure the future will make EV charging stations as common as gas stations, however, I think that time is several years away...

I did a quick look on the Web to get some info to share with non-EV users.

There are 3 levels of chargers for EVs.

Level 1 - This is limited to what a standard 115V outlet can deliver. Every hour of charging may get you 5 to 6 miles of driving.

Level 2 - This is what a 230V outlet can deliver, the same as what your dryer or oven plugs into. You can get 30 miles of driving per hour of charging. Public charging stations are Level 2. Any EV can be charged at Level 2 stations.

Level 3 - I believe Tesla Superchargers are in this class. There is yet no standard at this level. Tesla Superchargers supply 480V DC current directly to the EV battery, and only work for Tesla cars. A car can be charged to full in 1 hour.

So, it looks like cross-country trips are doable only with Tesla cars, and very painful with non-Tesla EVs at this point. Tesla cars can be charged at standard Level 2 charging stations, but the wait time is awful.

Tesla gave lifetime free charging for early car buyers. Later buyers only get so many kWh/year, and have to pay beyond the free kWhs.

 

[NW-Bound]

There was a story about a guy who bought a Tesla that was totaled. He was able to have the car repaired and re-registered with his state vehicle division. He took his family on a cross-country vacation, and visited a Tesla service station for some work. Tesla found out that the car was repaired by a 3rd party and said the owner had to pay for Tesla to certify the repair.

The owner refused to pay. He then discovered that his car was no longer chargeable at Tesla Supercharger stations, and he had to use public Level 2 chargers. It was so painfully slow, he abandoned his road trip, flew his family back, and had the car towed back home.

 

[ScottS]

There was a story about a guy who bought a Tesla that was totaled. He was able to have the car repaired and re-registered with his state vehicle division. He took his family on a cross-country vacation, and visited a Tesla service station for some work. Tesla found out that the car was repaired by a 3rd party and said the owner had to pay for Tesla to certify the repair.

The owner refused to pay. He then discovered that his car was no longer chargeable at Tesla Supercharger stations, and he had to use public Level 2 chargers. It was so painfully slow, he abandoned his road trip, flew his family back, and had the car towed back home.

Link to the article about the situation referenced above:

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/05/t...eatures-salvaged-model-without-telling-owner/


The skinny on this - Car was bought at a salvage auction, made roadworthy by replacing a door. Owner went to service center later for warranty work. Center found out about salvage status. As a by-product of this the vehicle was no longer "certified" by Tesla, and due to this Tesla no longer provides service, updates, and access to superchargers. The owner stated he was not informed of this by the service center.


BTW, to have a Tesla re-certified by Tesla will cost $10K or more.

 

[kcowan]

I think I answered your question. If I didn't let me know.

That is great. I understand. Many years ago I began taking the train 25 miles away from home. I suffered separation anxiety being so far away without a car. After a year, I was converted.

I think it is the same with EVs. Until there is an experience base with driving between charging stations, there will be separation anxiety. Granted the trip from San Diego to Bellingham is unique but many other routes are catching up.

Also, being retired is much different. I can read my epub for 20 minutes while enroute (on a bench under a tree) rather than hurrying to the destination and then reading it.

 

[kcowan]

What “cash crunch” is that?

This one.
Tesla status 10/24/18
Try to forecast the next quarter free cash on this sequence:

 

[Zathras]

This one.
Tesla status 10/24/18
Try to forecast the next quarter free cash on this sequence:

Thanks for the link!
How unusual is it for a company growing globally to have debt?
1Q Tesla does have convertibles on the order of 930 Million. Cash in 3Q grew to 3 Billion. So, with cash now flowing in, and 3 Billion cash on hand, for the short term, I see no issues.

I'll spend more time on the link you sent, but if you know how much debt is 'normal' I'd be interested.