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Old 10-13-2020, 03:39 PM   #41
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I confess that I am not at all diversified and we have fallen in love with one stock. UNP. We have other mutual funds but they annoy us when they create tax gains we never see and which are pretty unpredictable. I really need to sell it and diversify, but the gains over three decades will mean a big state and fed tax bite if we sell it. And dang. It just keeps going up and paying dividends!
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Old 10-13-2020, 04:12 PM   #42
Recycles dryer sheets
 
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I hold mostly index ETF’s. VTI being the largest holding.

Have only two individual stocks: MSFT and AAPL
Microsoft would be my favorite.
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Old 10-13-2020, 04:20 PM   #43
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OK, one more try. The seller has lost the appreciation that you gained. Net change = zero. Had you not bought, he would have retained the appreciation and you would have gained nothing. Net change = zero.

Now done.
OldShooter,

I am usually with you but you have me puzzled here.

Every stock anyone has ever owned (even by an index manager) was bought by someone else, who sold it. It sounds like you are suggesting that one of these folks "wins" and one "loses".

If true, it suggests that our ever rising stock market has produced offsetting gains and losses which net to zero.
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Old 10-13-2020, 04:56 PM   #44
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Well, I am not a game theory guy and I know that there are some subtleties having to do with costs, IPOs adding stocks to the market, and buy-backs removing it. So I am mostly repeating what I have read, which makes sense to me. Here are a couple of clips from IMO credible sources:
"The initial way to view the stock market is as a zero-sum game. With any stock trade, one side wins, because it buys a security that increases in price, or because it sells one that declines. The other side loses, by the same amount. In aggregate, then, the stock market's collective trades amount to nothing at all." https://www.morningstar.com/articles...-zero-sum-game

" ... financial markets, options and futures are examples of zero-sum games, excluding transaction costs. For every person who gains on a contract, there is a counter-party who loses." https://www.investopedia.com/terms/z/zero-sumgame.asp

HTH
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Old 10-13-2020, 07:57 PM   #45
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About a decade ago I sufficiently proved that I sucked at stock picking and went 100% onto the broad, low-cost index fund wagon

However, I have slipped with teeny bits of FB, AMZN, AAPL(sadly sold to buy real estate). Lately, seduced by the return multiples, I'm thinking of SNOW.
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Old 10-14-2020, 05:29 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Blue531 View Post
Do you have a favorite growth stock? Or any favorite stock?
IMO, Individual stocks:
MSFT = Microsoft
TSLA = Tesla

"Safest"; also what Warren Buffet and Our Rich Journey (YouTube vloggers that retired around 39 years old from federal jobs) encourage:
S&P500 Index
Vanguard = VTSAX
Schwab = SWTSX
Fidelity = FZROX

Above index info from URL:
(above URL is not an affiliate link and only knowledge base for readers)
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Old 10-14-2020, 10:23 AM   #47
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Vanguard’s Total Stock Market is my favorite investment. A little of everything.
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Old 10-14-2020, 12:30 PM   #48
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Right now, I'm for NVAX - the safest covid vaccine, and now approve for Phase 3 in the UK. US and India are also in the process of approving them for Phase 3, and they have a coming deal with EU. JNJ, Astra, INO - all their vaccines have been halted. Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines need to be stored at minus -100 F, so difficult for distribution. NVAX vaccine can be stored in any refrigerator. The US has awarded them $1.6 Billion. Current revenue for 2020 is $50 million. Projected Revenue for 2021 with their covid vaccine and their nanoflu = $3 Billion - $4 Billion .. that's a jump from 50 million to billions. The New England Journal of Medicine has a publication on their vaccine as safe and effective.
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Old 10-14-2020, 12:48 PM   #49
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Right now, I'm for NVAX - the safest covid vaccine, and now approve for Phase 3 in the UK. US and India are also in the process of approving them for Phase 3, and they have a coming deal with EU. JNJ, Astra, INO - all their vaccines have been halted. Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines need to be stored at minus -100 F, so difficult for distribution. NVAX vaccine can be stored in any refrigerator. The US has awarded them $1.6 Billion. Current revenue for 2020 is $50 million. Projected Revenue for 2021 with their covid vaccine and their nanoflu = $3 Billion - $4 Billion .. that's a jump from 50 million to billions. The New England Journal of Medicine has a publication on their vaccine as safe and effective.
This is stuff that no one else knows, so it couldn't possibly be already reflected in the current stock price? See post #15.
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Old 10-14-2020, 02:14 PM   #50
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Well, I am not a game theory guy and I know that there are some subtleties having to do with costs, IPOs adding stocks to the market, and buy-backs removing it. So I am mostly repeating what I have read, which makes sense to me. Here are a couple of clips from IMO credible sources:
"The initial way to view the stock market is as a zero-sum game. With any stock trade, one side wins, because it buys a security that increases in price, or because it sells one that declines. The other side loses, by the same amount. In aggregate, then, the stock market's collective trades amount to nothing at all." https://www.morningstar.com/articles...-zero-sum-game

" ... financial markets, options and futures are examples of zero-sum games, excluding transaction costs. For every person who gains on a contract, there is a counter-party who loses." https://www.investopedia.com/terms/z/zero-sumgame.asp

HTH
In this context it makes no sense. Indexing would have no way to defeat this if it were in fact true.

It does make sense in the context of options.
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Old 10-14-2020, 02:36 PM   #51
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In this context it makes no sense. Indexing would have no way to defeat this if it were in fact true. ...
I think the problem is that it is a useful model but it is not exact. indexing (or pretty much any broad buy and hold strategy) works because the market price distribution center is not exactly at zero -- the usual simplification for Gaussian distributions. Depending on whether you want constant dollars or nominal dollars and depending on the time period you measure, you get maybe a 5-10% upward drift per year. Then there are the other factors those linked articles mention which also mean the zero-sum model is not exact.

It's like saying that market prices are random. It's a very useful model but it is not exactly correct. For example, complete randomness would not allow momentum -- which exists.

So assuming zero-sum and randomness is IMO a practical way to look at the market and is highly consistent with the data but the assumption is not accurate to lots of decimal places. That is before we even start talking about price noise.

Works for me, anyway. Maybe not for everyone.
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Old 10-14-2020, 06:50 PM   #52
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CPRT. Copart Inc. Bought at $45 closed at $115.00 today.
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Old 10-20-2020, 07:10 PM   #53
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As I said, not sure I have a single favorite stock but SNAPCHAT (SNAP) has been one that I like a lot. I just began buying this Jan/Feb/Mar (Most between 10 and 14 in March). I added more in July at 22.

It is trading at 35 (up 24% just today ) after hours reflecting blockbuster earnings. I still like it.
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