Cuba

[Major Tom]

I see Cuba as a very strong contender for many many retirees from Canada and the U.S. It is cheap, stable, best medical system outside of developed economies, highly educated population, one of the safest countries in the world (even while being very poor), a stone's throw from the U.S., and many more advantages. It is definitely on my radar.

Maybe Cuba would be a good place to ER?

If we'll be able to use US credit cards there, how long before we can receive our SS payments there also, as well as set up bank accounts?

Cuba as a retirement destination is indeed an interesting thought.

 

[MichaelB]

Cuba still needs some infrastructure before it becomes a viable option for us ER types, but it does have potential. A ferry ride away makes it even better.

 

[frayne]

Politics aside, it's about time we get along with our neighbors.

 

[REWahoo]

From an online Time article, "Witness Cuba's Evolution in 39 Photos".

Notice anything unusual in this picture?

 

[Senator]

Notice anything unusual in this picture?

Ricardo's wife must be in the back? Or do you have to watch what well you are drinking water from?

 

[pb4uski]

Or perhaps they are progressive and allow gay marriage.

 

[audreyh1]

They're bundled up as if the weather is cold? ?

 

[2B]

Politics aside, it's about time we get along with our neighbors.

There seems to be two views of the situation.

One is "lets all get along." The possibilities of new tourist or ER destinations trump anything else.

The other is that in a few years the whole purpose of the embargo may be realized and a regime that has seized millions of dollars of US privately owned property and tyrannized their people will undoubtedly be replaced when the Castros finally die. It''s like grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.

I suspect that if we did a poll we'd look a lot like the Cuban exile/fled community. The older members would be more likely to think this move as a "surrender" than the younger members who are not as emotionally tied to the original issues.

Bottom line, I expect Cuba to become another poor Caribbean nation that will look a lot like Haiti in a few decades unless the US takes over financial support. Tourism by itself won't cut it. Venezuela has been propping them up with low cost/free oil in exchange for military and medical support. They are still in a desperately poor condition. I can't see Venezuela keeping up the support without someone (China?) making them a fully owned client state. It's possible but then there's the possibility of the US dusting off the Monroe Doctrine.

 

[truenorth418]

There seems to be two views of the situation.

One is "lets all get along." The possibilities of new tourist or ER destinations trump anything else.

The other is that in a few years the whole purpose of the embargo may be realized and a regime that has seized millions of dollars of US privately owned property and tyrannized their people will undoubtedly be replaced when the Castros finally die. It''s like grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.

I suspect that if we did a poll we'd look a lot like the Cuban exile/fled community. The older members would be more likely to think this move as a "surrender" than the younger members who are not as emotionally tied to the original issues.

Bottom line, I expect Cuba to become another poor Caribbean nation that will look a lot like Haiti in a few decades unless the US takes over financial support. Tourism by itself won't cut it. Venezuela has been propping them up with low cost/free oil in exchange for military and medical support. They are still in a desperately poor condition. I can't see Venezuela keeping up the support without someone (China?) making them a fully owned client state. It's possible but then there's the possibility of the US dusting off the Monroe Doctrine.

My understanding is that after the fall of the USSR, in the early 1990s Cuba liberalized somewhat and invited foreign businesses to come in and invest, especially in the tourism industry. Of course US companies were not among them. Many big Canadian and European companies jumped in. (Imagine the opportunities they anticipated being able to invest in a new market with zero US competition!)

If I understand the situation correctly, many of these companies withdrew their investments and/or lowered their expectations within a few years as the Cuban regime remained overly controlling and it was difficult to do business there.

It will be interesting to see if improved relations with the US will finally lead to free market reforms that attract investment, improved economic conditions, and political freedom for the Cuban people, or if this is just another ruse to prop up the communist regime even longer.

As a retirement venue, I can't imagine that the day to day conveniences that we all take for granted - Internet, banking, shopping - will be on line anytime soon, but it should be interesting to watch it all unfold.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[mpeirce]

Cuba still needs some infrastructure before it becomes a viable option for us ER types, but it does have potential. A ferry ride away makes it even better.

Ferry? If Cuba hadn't taken such a sad historical wrong turn in history, we'd have nice bridge or tunnel to there already.

With a little luck there will be one in a decade or two.

 

[MichaelB]

Ferry? If Cuba hadn't taken such a sad historical wrong turn in history, we'd have nice bridge or tunnel to there already.

With a little luck there will be one in a decade or two.

An interesting question for the forum engineers. Is a bridge or tunnel financial feasible if the traffic is mostly passenger? The length would probably be a bit over 100 miles and the route subject to lots of hurricanes.

 

[REWahoo]

The length would probably be a bit over 100 miles and the route subject to lots of hurricanes.

And thousands of ships...

 

[Senator]

If you think about it, Cuba has the potential to be a solid manufacturing base, as well as tourism.

I am sure labor is cheap, and they have plenty of land to expand factories. Importing things is a lot shorter and easier than bringing it in from China. I am sure as bad as Cuba might have been for the original embargo, or still is, China is no better.

So, as much as there is a demand for tourism, this could be a major boon for US Companies too. And it will promote competition with other out-sourced labor to provide cheaper goods to everyone that gets goods from there. Even the fruits and vegetables should be easier to import.

I would suspect that the price of Cuban cigars would drop almost immediately, so do not count your stash of Cuban cigars as an asset you can sell as you get older...

 

[2B]

An interesting question for the forum engineers. Is a bridge or tunnel financial feasible if the traffic is mostly passenger? The length would probably be a bit over 100 miles and the route subject to lots of hurricanes.

The problem I see with a tunnel is you have to drive from Miami all the way to Key West to get in it. That's a pretty limited road to add the Cuba traffic to. You need a 100 mile tunnel and over 100 miles of serious road improvements. I think your original ferry idea is the best approach. Ultimately, the question is how much traffic is there? You'd need a massive amount to justify a tunnel. I'm sure the residents of Key West would come out in droves to widen all the roads so people can go by at 70 mph through their small island homes.

 

[2B]

If you think about it, Cuba has the potential to be a solid manufacturing base, as well as tourism.

I am sure labor is cheap, and they have plenty of land to expand factories. Importing things is a lot shorter and easier than bringing it in from China. I am sure as bad as Cuba might have been for the original embargo, or still is, China is no better.

So, as much as there is a demand for tourism, this could be a major boon for US Companies too. And it will promote competition with other out-sourced labor to provide cheaper goods to everyone that gets goods from there. Even the fruits and vegetables should be easier to import.

I would suspect that the price of Cuban cigars would drop almost immediately, so do not count your stash of Cuban cigars as an asset you can sell as you get older...

The biggest problem I see with China is they effectively steal any technology transferred to them. Knock offs are almost immediately available and patents/copy rights are effectively ignored. I personally wouldn't move anything to China unless it was open source technology. I also hate buying industrial materials from China because they cut corners and short specs without hesitation. Without true "rule of law" Cuba will be no better.

Fruits and vegetables are a possibility. Unfortunately, they are barely feeding themselves.

 

[samclem]

There are only 12 million people there. Just too small to justify a tunnel or even a causeway. As far as being good site for mfg or anything else-- it will need to show some competitive advantage over the glut of other low cost places to do that in the same neighborhood. People are reluctant to invest where private property isn't protected.

 

[Independent]

My interest in Cuba is as a vacation destination.
It must have more sea coast than any other Caribbean island - some of that should be appealing.
They've got mountains right next to a deep ocean trench.
But, I can't see them getting the infrastructure up for ordinary US travelers in my traveling lifetime.

 

[FUEGO]

It's doubtful a tunnel would work financially even if it was possible to build it technically (and make it safe enough if it were to fill with smoke or a truck caught on fire, for example).

Let's say a billion per mile. That's $100 billion for the tunnel. Assume a 6% cost of capital to finance it. You would need $6 billion per year of revenue just to service the interest on the debt. Say $10 billion total to cover a little debt repayment, operations and maintenance and renewal and rehabilitation over the years.

If you charged every vehicle that used it $200 per one way trip (roughly the cost of a ferry?), you would need 137,000 vehicles per day every day (even Sundays and holidays) to cover the $10 billion annual cost. For reference, 137,000 vehicles per day is what you would see on a busy 8 lane freeway.

I'm not even sure you could build an 8 lane tunnel for "only" $1 bn per mile when you factor in all the ventilation, safety, and redundancy required for a 100 mile length. And there isn't 137,000 vehicles per day that would want to make that trip. Maybe a few percent of that number. It's a long drive from Miami (the nearest population center of any significance).

I would think a ferry from Key West or near there or from Miami would be a more reasonable alternative for those wanting to travel with a car and not wanting to ship the car. Miami already has a good port and maritime workforce, so adding a ferry terminal (if it was financially reasonable) wouldn't be a huge stretch. I doubt it would make money though, given how cheap it would be to fly from MIA to Havana or elsewhere in Cuba.

 

[Sunset]

Maybe Cuba would be a good place to ER?

That thought was what I was thinking so many years ago as I stood in the all included resort as it was so cheap, I figured I could afford the monthly rate all year (was about 12K-15K).

Course later I found out they shut down over part of the year as it was not good for tourism. Too hot in summer without AC

 

[Lakewood90712]

The US embassy re-opens on Monday . I wonder who got evicted from the building to make this happen.

 

[meierlde]

The US embassy re-opens on Monday . I wonder who got evicted from the building to make this happen.

It was the US interests section of the Swiss Embassy since the breaking of diplomatic relations, and as I understand it was the US embassy before this.

 

[Rick_Head]

I was in Cuba about 18 months ago and on a tour of Havana the guide pointed out the "US Embassy". It appeared to be one of the few "functional" buildings. I guessed that another country "managed" it for the US.

 

[FUEGO]

Too hot in summer without AC

And A/C won't work when the power is out, which happens a lot apparently.

 

[explanade]

almost as bad as unreliable power would be unreliable Internet.

 

[Lakewood90712]

almost as bad as unreliable power would be unreliable Internet.

I read somewhere on the Internet , that Cuba only has AOL dialup service