Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[Bongleur]

But worrying about ventilators, etc., - which none of us can control - doesn't exactly strike me as helpful information. So continuing to argue for a more pessimistic outlook helps who exactly?

I'm looking at the odds of getting sub-standard medical care if you need care. The higher those odds, the more justification for taking preventive measures.

Trying to get the best data for "running the numbers" on whatever may be important to someone is not optimism or pessimism. Neither is listing potential items of concern. Its just data.

 

[Tiger8693]

I couldn't find the post where someone did a mathematical calculation.

I'm waiting for someone to tell me that 10 million dead by June is crazy.

See post #444

 

[Rusa]

Spice

If you really think it's the end of the world, stock up on spices, chocolate/cocoa powder, sugar, hard candies, and coffee/tea. Advice from long-time reader of end-of-the-world novels LOL.

 

[TromboneAl]

Here's a rough test of that graph. It predicts that we'll hit 100,000 infected (outside China) on March 20.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

My conclusion after reading some of this thread (who has the patience for all) the best preparation beyond common sense and washing hands is to NOT read this thread... extrapolating 10 million deaths.

Please. Get. A. Grip.

I'm curious why you think 10 million would be a crazy number? Webmd had a recent article that stated the 1918 flu claimed 50 million lives worldwide, in an era when there was limited commercial air travel, less people on the planet and less urbanization. I have no idea what will happen with the coronavirus, but 10 million doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility.

 

[brewer12345]

Stopped in a Costco for a hundred pounds of sugar to feed bees. Holy cow. Store was quiet but there were no paper goods of any description, not a grain of rice, almost no flour and lots of out of stock food. They moved some skinny back stock in the areas with sold out stuff, but the store still looked half empty.

 

[Bongleur]

Here's a rough test of that graph. It predicts that we'll hit 100,000 infected (outside China) on March 20.

Not realistic for population analysis. Look up "the logistic curve" which is an S shaped curve. That is the way populations behave when perturbed. The hard part is the time scale (x axis) on that S shape.

Realistically, one cannot shelter forever. So if you have say 10 days of supplies, you would want to time your use of them to avoid the 10 days where there are the largest number of infectious people wandering around.

 

[Bongleur]

Misc replies:

1) use a soft nail brush or surgical prep brush/sponge when washing your hands, to "scrub."

2) a light plastic face shield protects your face from being sneezed on. Might be as good as a badly fitting mask. Who knows.

3) take off gloves when returning to car BEFORE touching door handle.

4) A logical system for going to the doctor would be to arrive at appointment, call to tell them you are outside, and have them call you back when they are ready for you - while you wait in your car. Publicize the concept...

5) when giving a link, please quote the title & date of publication.

 

[gwraigty]

I forgot to get bottled water! Thank you for reminding me. Forgetting it was probably a Freudian slip since I keep thinking that there is no reason for tap water to dry up just due to the virus (and I could boil it on the stove to sterilize it). Still, people say to buy it, and it's good to have some around for hurricane season anyway when water availability really IS a concern. Guess I'll have to drop by the grocery store again this afternoon or tomorrow for bottled water. I wonder what else I forgot.

You're quite welcome.

I already posted this, but since so many are asking why stock up on bottled water...Right now I can drink our tap water without ill effects. When it starts getting warmer, not so much, especially when it gets that strong algae taste. It can make me sick. I've used the Brita filters that you attach to the faucet and a Brita pitcher. Each has their cons. I don't have either one now, but if I had to go back to those, I'd pick the pitcher. Maybe that info will help someone with similar tap water issues, just in case bottled water can't be found for awhile in the short term.

 

[TromboneAl]

Not realistic for population analysis. Look up "the logistic curve" which is an S shaped curve. That is the way populations behave when perturbed. The hard part is the time scale (x axis) on that S shape.
.

Right. We're nowhere near the limit of the population (7.5 billion). So maybe we're still in the exponential growth phase of the S curve.

 

[Gumby]

Do you all remember how this thread started? It exists to provide useful information, not to push each other's fear buttons. If you are not one of the fatalities, arguing over whether the mortality rate is 2% or 3.4% is pointless, as is predicting the total number of potential fatalities. There is absolutely nothing any of us here can do about that.

Take whatever personal precautions you think are reasonable, but, for God's sake, knock it off with the hysteria. The world is not going to end. If you have useful, actionable information, post it. If all you want is for others to fear as much as you do, I suggest there are better uses for your time.

 

[Another Reader]

Do you all remember how this thread started? It exists to provide useful information, not to push each other's fear buttons. If you are not one of the fatalities, arguing over whether the mortality rate is 2% or 3.4% is pointless, as is predicting the total number of potential fatalities. There is absolutely nothing any of us here can do about that.

Take whatever personal precautions you think are reasonable, but, for God's sake, knock it off with the hysteria. The world is not going to end. If you have useful, actionable information, post it. If all you want is for others to fear as much as you do, I suggest there are better uses for your time.

I do think knowing the correct death rate helps in decision making. If there is a 20 percent chance, I'm staying home with my stockpiles until the pandemic is over. If it's 0.1 percent and most people that die are already compromised, I will be back to the normal winter flu precautions. Those are the extremes, but knowing who is likely to die and how likely is useful for planning.

 

[Tiger8693]

I do think knowing the correct death rate helps in decision making. If there is a 20 percent chance, I'm staying home with my stockpiles until the pandemic is over. If it's 0.1 percent and most people that die are already compromised, I will be back to the normal winter flu precautions. Those are the extremes, but knowing who is likely to die and how likely is useful for planning.

So, you think you can get information on something like that from this Forum? I would re-think this as your source for making that kind of decision.

 

[Gumby]

I do think knowing the correct death rate helps in decision making. If there is a 20 percent chance, I'm staying home with my stockpiles until the pandemic is over. If it's 0.1 percent and most people that die are already compromised, I will be back to the normal winter flu precautions. Those are the extremes, but knowing who is likely to die and how likely is useful for planning.

And what, exactly, will you do differently if the rate is 1.7%, or 2.1% or 3.4%? Those are the types of rates involved in the earlier dispute, not 20%. Moreover, how do you think anyone will know the correct mortality rate? Ever.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Do you all remember how this thread started? It exists to provide useful information, not to push each other's fear buttons. If you are not one of the fatalities, arguing over whether the mortality rate is 2% or 3.4% is pointless, as is predicting the total number of potential fatalities. There is absolutely nothing any of us here can do about that.

Take whatever personal precautions you think are reasonable, but, for God's sake, knock it off with the hysteria. The world is not going to end. If you have useful, actionable information, post it. If all you want is for others to fear as much as you do, I suggest there are better uses for your time.

I can't speak for others, but I'm interested in statistics and projections, not hysteria. If you don't want us to talk about the statistics, then you're the admin and that is your call.

 

[Gumby]

I can't speak for others, but I'm interested in statistics and projections, not hysteria. If you don't want us to talk about the statistics, then you're the admin and that is your call.

I appreciate your post and quite understand your interest. You might recall that I was actually the one who made an effort to predict for T-Al when we might reach the peak of the epidemic in the US (over on the travel related thread). But I invite you to consider carefully the tenor of some of the earlier posts and tell me that they evidence an honest interest in statistics and methods of extrapolation and not just a projection of the author's fear.

 

[garyt]

Are you really saying that you expect several million in NA to die from this? There are ~1.3 Billion people, in much more tightly compact areas in Asia and they by all accounts are on the downslope with NO WHERE NEAR that loss of life.

IF the 14% mortality rate for 80 year olds holds true here, plus the 8% rate for 70's and IF 60% of that population gets the virus, 2 million will die. And that's just 70+people. There will be some younger than that, also.

 

[TromboneAl]

Knowledge is power. It's needed to make informed decisions.

The people on this forum are smarter and more thoughtful than the average bears, no question.

I'm honestly unclear on whether my extrapolation of the Johns Hopkins curve is considered hysteria. I will say that I'm not afraid.

 

[Gumby]

IF the 14% mortality rate for 80 year olds holds true here, plus the 8% rate for 70's and IF 60% of that population gets the virus, 2 million will die. And that's just 70+people. There will be some younger than that, also.

And?

 

[garyt]

And?

The guy I quoted was "slapping his head" at the fact someone posted that millions could die as if it's some crazy idea. It's not crazy at all as I showed with the statistics. Will it happen? Who knows? But it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

 

[Another Reader]

So, you think you can get information on something like that from this Forum? I would re-think this as your source for making that kind of decision.

I don't think at this point I'm getting accurate and complete information anywhere. I have to hunt down sources, triangulate, discount some sources, and go through all sorts of analysis to get to a reasonable understanding of the situation. For now, my decisions and actions are based on likely to worst case scenarios based on the information that seems to be the most reliable. Not a happy situation.

 

[Gumby]

The guy I quoted was "slapping his head" at the fact someone posted that millions could die as if it's some crazy idea. It's not crazy at all as I showed with the statistics. Will it happen? Who knows? But it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

How is that helpful to me or anyone else? What should I do differently because of your information?

 

[garyt]

How is that helpful to me or anyone else? What should I do differently because of your information?

Do whatever you want with it, I don't care. I find it interesting, and frightening. YMMV. I think other people may find it interesting also. My Dad is 95 and inlaws are mid 80's. I'm worried about them.

 

[Fermion]

How is that helpful to me or anyone else? What should I do differently because of your information?

Mass hysteria is not so helpful but neither is sticking your head in the sand thinking there is just nothing you can do.

It does make a difference if the mortality rate is 3.4% instead of 0.5%. I might risk some things at 0.5% that I would not at 3.4%...a 7x more likely chance of dying is pretty big.

 

[Tiger8693]

I believe this thread may have run it's course. Supposition about world wide decimation just isn't in my thought process. On the bright side, until I came here, I never knew I was such an optimist!