Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

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sengsational said:
My very early back of the envelope calculation two weeks ago suggested that several million seniors in North America would succumb.
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I may be a senior but I've often been called sophomoric so I figure I have at least some chance. :D
 
We shopped at Costco today, north of Portland. All sold out of toilet paper, rice, paper towels, disinfectant, ground beef and most chicken. They had bottled water but were limiting quantities.

Why the rush on water? :confused:
 
Midpack said:
It is comforting to know 98% of people infected will overcome it easily, the 2% at risk disproportionately older folks in poor health.
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What is your source for that figure? My reading says that 20% are "worse than mild" which means at least mild pneumonia. That requires medical care.

Note that the "atypical" pneumonia caused by the virus does not respond to antibiotics. But if you go into the hospital, you are exposed to bacterial pneumonia, and if there is no more antibiotics available, your risk goes way up. Also if you have severe pneumonia, you require a ventilator, which again might be something in short supply.
 
Zinc Gluconate

travelover said:
Why the rush on water? :confused:
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Yeah. I don't get it. Which takes me to my other "why the rush" question...

Where's the data that says Cold Ezee (zinc glugonate) has any effect on this corona virus?

I have some Cold Ezee in the cabinet (that I grant you, has at least at least some 'evidence' of effectiveness in shortening cold symptoms), but I haven't seen it's effective on anything but cold viruses. Just for yucks, I looked it up on Amazon and it's sold-out. And that aligns with what I've read here about the cold medication isle being, lets say, "less than well stocked" at some stores.

I think it might be that people can't just sit here and wait for the disease to hit, they have got to "do something", which might mean doing something that won't make a lick of difference.
 
Bongleur said:
What is your source for that figure? My reading says that 20% are "worse than mild" which means at least mild pneumonia. That requires medical care.

Note that the "atypical" pneumonia caused by the virus does not respond to antibiotics. But if you go into the hospital, you are exposed to bacterial pneumonia, and if there is no more antibiotics available, your risk goes way up. Also if you have severe pneumonia, you require a ventilator, which again might be something in short supply.
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I'm sure we're all reading the same general info. 20% have a rough time and require medical care (which no doubt will vary), 2% (or slightly less) fatality rate - all based on the info from the initial group which may change as the impacted population grows and moves.

But worrying about ventilators, etc., - which none of us can control - doesn't exactly strike me as helpful information. So continuing to argue for a more pessimistic outlook helps who exactly?
 
travelover said:
We shopped at Costco today, north of Portland. All sold out of toilet paper, rice, paper towels, disinfectant, ground beef and most chicken. They had bottled water but were limiting quantities.

Why the rush on water? :confused:
Click to expand...


I don't get the rush on water either. I was in a local grocery store today and noticed they only had one checker line open since they just weren't that busy. I intentionally walked around the store checking out the pharmacy (looked fully stocked to me) and things like can goods, rice, other non perishables, fresh meat/chicken/fish, TP, paper towels, etc.... Everything was fully stocked. However, when I was checking out the guy in front of me had a basket full (5 or 6 cases) of bottled water and nothing else. I don't get it unless he just can't drink the local water for some reason.
 
Aerides said:
I'm sure we're all reading the same general info. 20% have a rough time and require medical care (which no doubt will vary), 2% (or slightly less) fatality rate - all based on the info from the initial group which may change as the impacted population grows and moves.

But worrying about ventilators, etc., - which none of us can control - doesn't exactly strike me as helpful information. So continuing to argue for a more pessimistic outlook helps who exactly?
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Actually the WHO is not quoting a 3.4 percent mortality rate.
 
HTML:
Here's a scenario that requires planning and does not have an easy answer. If you live alone and have a pet, like me, suppose you get symptoms bad enough that you have to go to the doctor. You are diagnosed with -IT- and you are not allowed to return home.

You could line up a caregiver ahead of time but will that person want to go into your home to care for the pet? And would there be fear that the pet itself could contaminate them even if they took it somewhere else? You could bring the pet to a facility beforehand since you don't really know what you have yet ... hmmm.

To me this situation would be worse than having to evacuate with a pet for a hurricane. My plan for that is just to pack up and leave beforehand. Stay in another state until it is over. With this there is no place to go.
 
JDPascale said:
Read this on another forum.

From the eminent pathologist Dr James Robb:
Date: February 26, 2020

Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.

<snip>

I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us! Jim
James Robb, MD FCAP
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Some of the content content and tenor of that including its inconsistencies with what I've heard elsewhere comes across as being completely fake. I would prefer a legitimate source/reference than some email circulating the internet with "share me".
 
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sengsational said:
My very early back of the envelope calculation two weeks ago suggested that several million seniors in North America would succumb. I haven't seen anything to suggest that was completely out of the ball park.
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f38/coronavirus-health-aspects-101852-43.html#post2372370
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Are you really saying that you expect several million in NA to die from this? There are ~1.3 Billion people, in much more tightly compact areas in Asia and they by all accounts are on the downslope with NO WHERE NEAR that loss of life. :facepalm:
 
MichaelB said:
Just a reminder that the primary purpose of this thread is preparedness. Specific suggestions or recommendations are most helpful. There’s no need or benefit to just repeating what is being reported elsewhere.
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How about a separate threads for "COVID-19 reports on store crowds & out of stock items?"

And people should state the geographic region - sometimes the username area is not informative.
 
We talked to our neighbor today, and the subject of Covid-19 came up. Neither of us is stockpiling supplies, but we made a pact that if either household gets sick, the other will gather necessary items and deliver to the sick household. It was good for a chuckle, but there is an element of truth. We tend to help each other out during big storms, power outages, etc.

I just returned from the local Wegmans. I didn’t notice any shortages and there were no crowds. I bought more than I normally do, but if you didn’t know my habits it wasn’t obvious. I figure that we won’t eat out as much if there’s an outbreak locally so I wanted to have some options around.
 
Here’s the web site for the daily WHO situation report for COVID-19. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports. Today’s report (3/3) is here https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0303-sitrep-43-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=2c21c09c_2

The numbers of confirmed cases and deaths are there, for those interested in that sort of thing. Not sure how much value there is in making projections based on those numbers, but it certainly doesn’t add anything to the discussion here.
 
We just got our first confirmed coronavirus case in Wake County, NC. They flew in from Washington. I live in Raleigh.

I went to Walmart early this morning to stock up. Had everything I needed (out of sanitizer) but noticed certain areas were starting to get empty. Lots of employees stocking shelves. Now that we have our first case it will be interesting to see how people react.

I was supposed to go to lunch with a former coworker on Thursday but the business is shutting down Thursday and Friday and testing if employees can work from home. They have over 500 employees. Not sure if all of them will be able to work from home but many can.
 
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sengsational said:
Where's the data that says Cold Ezee (zinc glugonate) has any effect on this corona virus?

I have some Cold Ezee in the cabinet (that I grant you, has at least at least some 'evidence' of effectiveness in shortening cold symptoms), but I haven't seen it's effective on anything but cold viruses. Just for yucks, I looked it up on Amazon and it's sold-out. And that aligns with what I've read here about the cold medication isle being, lets say, "less than well stocked" at some stores.

I think it might be that people can't just sit here and wait for the disease to hit, they have got to "do something", which might mean doing something that won't make a lick of difference.
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Snopes says the James Robb letter is real, but overstated. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/zinc-lozenges-coronavirus/

We reached out to Robb to ask if he was the author of this letter. Via email, he told us that he did indeed write it, but that it was never meant to be for anyone besides family and close friends, and that it was not intended to be an advertisement for any specific product:
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There is more detail at the link. The way I understood that letter, zinc does not prevent coronavirus, it prevents it’s growth in the throat.
 
My conclusion after reading some of this thread (who has the patience for all) the best preparation beyond common sense and washing hands is to NOT read this thread... extrapolating 10 million deaths.

Please. Get. A. Grip.
 
sengsational said:
I have some Cold Ezee in the cabinet (that I grant you, has at least at least some 'evidence' of effectiveness in shortening cold symptoms), but I haven't seen it's effective on anything but cold viruses. Just for yucks, I looked it up on Amazon and it's sold-out. And that aligns with what I've read here about the cold medication isle being, lets say, "less than well stocked" at some stores.

I think it might be that people can't just sit here and wait for the disease to hit, they have got to "do something", which might mean doing something that won't make a lick of difference.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's right.

I used to think zinc helped, but after more research, I decided it definitely does not. Colds are so misleading because often you're sure you're getting one (happened last week for me), but it doesn't develop. If you tried zinc when you felt that tickle, and you didn't get a cold, you're convinced it works.

If I think I'm getting COVID will I take zinc? Probably.

BTW, a noted pathologist recently recommended zinc.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/zinc-lozenges-coronavirus/
 
travelover said:
We shopped at Costco today, north of Portland. All sold out of toilet paper, rice, paper towels, disinfectant, ground beef and most chicken. They had bottled water but were limiting quantities.

Why the rush on water? :confused:
Click to expand...

Because people don't want to be thirsty? :)

Common people don't know much about the virus outbreak, other than it's a scary thing. And they have been taught to stock drinking water for storms, hurricanes, earthquakes, and they simply do the same thing now.
 
Why the rush on bottled water?


I believe this is a spillover from a general disaster plan for pandemic flu I've seen that was put together a few years ago. The assumption was that EVERYONE was going to get sick and personnel might be unavailable to run water treatment facilities.

As far as I can tell this is NOT likely to be the case with COVID-19. Even if the outbreak is quite severe it seems likely that the majority of working age Americans will either be unaffected or have mild forms of the disease. I don't see a scenario where basic utility services break down.

I think the greatest risk is overloading of our medical facilities and so it behooves us to try to delay our exposure to the virus as long as possible. So stocking up on supplies so that we don't have to shop much for several weeks is probably a good idea. Stocking up on water (if you currently use tap water for drinking) seems like a waste of time.
 
sengsational said:
Where's the data that says Cold Ezee (zinc glugonate) has any effect on this corona virus?

I have some Cold Ezee in the cabinet (that I grant you, has at least at least some 'evidence' of effectiveness in shortening cold symptoms), but I haven't seen it's effective on anything but cold viruses.
Click to expand...

Good point. This is a "lower respiratory tract" virus, right? I know there is evidence that zinc is helpful for _upper_ respiratory tract viruses. I don't know if this virus establishes itself in "upper" tissues, or just comes up from the lungs with phlegm. But it is found in nasal swabs, right?

But its really cheap (at least generics), and taking mega-doses for 10 days should not hurt you, and it doesn't taste too bad.
 
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