Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[TromboneAl]

It's the "Other Locations" plot that has the expected exponential shape.

And here it is plotted on a logarithmic axis.

 

[KB]

A health care worker in Placerville was diagnosed yesterday which means likely many people have been exposed. Since we aren’t far from there it will be here soon.

The Sacramento news is reporting the person is in Placer county, which is north of Sacramento. Not Placerville.

However, it is still close to the Sacramento area.

 

[Tiger8693]

I opened my fridge today and saw this:

View attachment 34008

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I opened my fridge today and saw this:

View attachment 34008

I took a real risk and drank one last night. I was doing stuff in the basement and knocked one off of a shelf. While the bottle didn't break and shatter, it was fizzing out of the top. I took that as a sign that it wanted to be consumed, so I obliged (after chilling it a bit in the refrigerator).

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by Nemo2 View Post
I recall, in Riyadh, we used to rinse fruits/veggies in Milton.

I think this is the same/similar: https://www.amazon.com/MILTON-STERIL.../dp/B002GP7ZCI

I looked it up...bleach. Probably a rinse is required after using this? I have (for my brewing hobby) an acid based sanitizer (Star San), which is a no-rinse sanitizer. Needs 30 second contact time, but I'm not sure of its effectiveness on viruses. It's great for bacteria, but wouldn't trust it for anti viral.

I have about 3 quarters of a gallon of Star San. .2 ounces of star San yields one gallon of Sanitizer liquid. Items can be soaked in Star San or even just sprayed. So, I have enough for many many many many ... uses.

So I would love to know the effectiveness question in terms of viruses, especially as it is no-rinse.

I do know it can lose its effectiveness, so I just ordered a digital PH meter to test out some sample solution. (I'm sure I have a meter someplace, but who knows where it is.)

I would not expect StarSan to do anything if used on fruits/vegetables. It is designed to be used on clean surfaces. The reason it can be used as a no-rinse sanitizer is that it breaks down (it's acid is neutralized) on contact with 'stuff'. You use it on solid, clean surfaces, and the tiny amounts of matter left are not enough to neutralize it.

I use RO/distilled water to mix mine - it is the minerals in water that will reduce its shelf life after mixing. But it is very concentrated, so I just mix a half gallon at a time (1/2 tsp StarSan), so it's cheap, and 1/2G goes a long way. Just make a new batch if it's been a while.

-ERD50

 

[harllee]

Maybe because they can take basic precautions, not be fearful and enjoy life now?

I am one of the seniors on the Forum--so far no reported cases in my area so I have not stopped going to public events (but I am being more careful with hand washing, trying not to touch objects or my face when out, etc). But once it hits my area I will probably quit going to out in crowds to the extent possible. But the issue is for how long? This could go on for months, maybe even longer until a vaccine is discovered. I am also concerned that a person could have this virus and not develop any immunity and get it again and again (sort of like shingles).

 

[Tiger8693]

I am one of the seniors on the Forum--so far no reported cases in my area so I have not stopped going to public events (but I am being more careful with hand washing, trying not to touch objects or my face when out, etc). But once it hits my area I will probably quit going to out in crowds to the extent possible. But the issue is for how long? This could go on for months, maybe even longer until a vaccine is discovered. I am also concerned that a person could have this virus and not develop any immunity and get it again and again (sort of like shingles).

I think the problem will be, this vaccine will likely be like most virus vaccines (ie the flu shot), and at best 50% effective.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Things are very calm in my area. I went to a hospital this morning for some lab work. No one—staff or patients—was wearing a mask, although the little stand that holds tissues, hand sanitizer, and masks was empty of masks.

Then I went to the grocery store and saw a woman in the parking lit with a mask on. She was loading groceries from her shopping cart into her car and I noticed she was not wearing gloves. In the store, not too crowded but not empty of shoppers, with fully stocked shelves, I did not see anyone with a mask either.

Now I’m washing my hands.... I did order some zinc lozenges from Amazon for the can’t-hurt factor and have been taking elderberry gummies because granddaughter tested positive for flu last week.

 

[stepford]

Showing my archaic tendencies I just voted in person at the local polling place. Probably 6-8 people in the 10x20' room in the local grammar school. I feel a bit silly now not having signed up for absentee balloting - oh well.

Anyway, nobody wearing masks (though I did wear disposable gloves and got some funny looks). Nobody coughing or sneezing, for what it's worth. I was in there doing my civic duty for 3-4 minutes. I wonder if the virus scare will affect turnout. Judging by appearances in my chunk of Southern California it doesn't seem so.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I'm surprised at the seniors on this forum, that are more susceptible to the COVID-19 due to age, putting themselves in harms way by going to crowded public events. Why wouldn't you isolate yourself now and enjoy life when things are back to normal?

I can't speak for others, but I don't think this is going to be a blow over in a few weeks kind of event. An ER doctor on a news show recently was saying we will probably see a lull in summer and then cases will shoot up again next winter. Also, the events I went to last week were before WHO issued their avoid crowds warning for 60+ people, and before we saw the news articles explaining the low case reports in the U.S. were due to almost no testing and not through low outbreaks.

Isolation might mean a year or more with no guarantee of not catching it anyway as long as we see some of our friends and our kids who have jobs and go into the outside world. Plus eye exams, car repairs, vet visits, etc. are pretty unavoidable long term. DH and I are still deciding how much to go out going forward based on the latest news reports. Our main hobbies are (maybe were?) going to club events and going out to dinner, the theater, concerts, and dancing, often with friends. It would be different if we had hobbies like fishing, sewing and woodworking but we don't. We're probably going to transition to more outside events going forward like hiking and walking groups as I can't see sitting home for a year or more.

 

[TromboneAl]

And here it is plotted on a logarithmic axis.

If this trend continues (not saying it will, and just speaking in mathematical terms), we hit 1 billion infected outside China at the end of May).

I certainly may be missing something here. I may have slipped a decimal point—ready to be corrected.

1% death rate means 10 million dead.

It may sound alarmist, but we need to see the numbers.

 

[NW-Bound]

... due to a tornado. That's an awfully high number of deaths. Good thing a tornado is not a long-lasting event.

It is to those who have been hit by one.

True.

However, the survivors could breathe out and say "Phew, that was a close one".

There are other calamities that do not get turned off that quick. Just because you make it today, that says nothing about tomorrow. The odds stay the same, if not increasing each day.

 

[redshift]

They also required masks when away from home:

'Aggressive “social distancing” measures implemented in the entire country included canceling sporting events and shuttering theaters. Schools extended breaks that began in mid-January for the Lunar New Year. Many businesses closed shop. Anyone who went outdoors had to wear a mask.'

We've been skeptical about reports that the disease is waning in China, but the decrease may be real (and related to strict measures).

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

... the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Chinese government that allowed 13 foreigners to join 12 Chinese scientists on a tour of five cities in China to study the state of the COVID-19 epidemic and the effectiveness of the country’s response. The findings surprised several of the visiting scientists. “I thought there was no way those numbers could be real,” says epidemiologist Tim Eckmanns of the Robert Koch Institute, who was part of the mission.

But the report is unequivocal. “China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic,” it says. “This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real.”​

But,

There’s also uncertainty about what the virus, dubbed SARS-CoV-2, will do in China after the country inevitably lifts some of its strictest control measures and restarts its economy. COVID-19 cases may well increase again.​

 

[W2R]

Food and prescription drug preparations

I read on the internet somewhere about food riots and shortages, that seem to be hitting regions that have just got their first COVID-19 cases. We have none here (yet?) so it occurred to me that it is time for me to get my act together.

On Sunday, I read (in some thread here?) that people were having trouble getting powdered milk. I went to Amazon, and it said my favorite brand of it was in stock! But as soon as I ordered some, it was no longer in stock. I am suspicious because it still hasn't been mailed and isn't due for delivery until next week.

So, today I went to the grocery store thinking they would be out of everything, after reading online about the near-riots in some parts of the country. It wasn't one bit crowded, and I got the closest parking space to the store. Inside, I went right to the powdered milk section and picked up 50 oz of nonfat dry milk. I normally drink skim milk or nonfat dry milk so this was exactly what I wanted. They didn't have my usual brand but they had plenty of the store brand. Yay!

Then I bought enough steaks, shrimp, fish, and pork to fill up my entirely empty freezer-on-top type freezer; oh and also some frozen blueberries, cheese, yogurt, and fresh eggs. These are the things I love to eat and I got at least a month's worth, maybe two (well, obviously the cheese and yogurt will not last that long but there is enough frozen stuff to last for 1-2 months). I have another month or two of canned foods from Prime Pantry in my cupboards, so I think I'm all prepared as far as food goes.

All this was at Rouse's, a local chain that evolved out of A&P and is the biggest chain around here. Big store, like Krogers, and the usual offerings. Anyway when it was time to check out, I was only the second in line.

My conclusion? If you have no COVID-19 in your area, now is the time to stock up at the grocery store so that you don't have to battle any crowds or fights over groceries that might develop later on. Even if they don't develop here, and all of this blows over in a few months as somebody on this thread wisely suggested, still it will be nice to not have to go grocery shopping for a long time.

As for prescription drugs, I am on four right now that I have been taking regularly for many years. I just picked up 3 more months worth of all four. It was just plain luck that Walgreen's said it had been long enough for me to purchase more. So, in the unlikely event that we get stuck in our homes like the residents of Wuhan, I'm all set for food and my prescriptions for over 3 months.

 

[Sunset]

We've been skeptical about reports that the disease is waning in China, but the decrease may be real (and related to strict measures).
.....

There’s also uncertainty about what the virus, dubbed SARS-CoV-2, will do in China after the country inevitably lifts some of its strictest control measures and restarts its economy. COVID-19 cases may well increase again.​

It makes total sense, an imposed quarantine on everyone would stop/slow it down a lot.
Unfortunately (or fortunately) we cannot do the same here unless martial law is imposed.

I do think, if China wants to get the economy humming again, that we are going to see a spike in cases as workers return.

Here I'm doing all our per-quarantine shopping along with normal shopping.

Yesterday I picked up 24 cans of green beans at Menards for only 33 cents per can (14.5 oz size).
Just lucky to notice it as we really went in for 40lbs of bird seed.

 

[gwraigty]

I was driving my car to the garage early this morning for maintenance service and noticed a woman driving behind me in my rear view mirror. Here eyes were in tears and she was coughing and sneezing very badly. She either had the flu or a very bad cold. What was disturbing was that her child was next to her in the passenger seat. I assume she was driver her child to school. Observing that scene, I shook my head and thought how many kids in that school will get sick because of this woman's actions.

Just curious, what do you think she should have done? If the child isn't sick, yet, the child is expected to be in school.

 

[Pellice]

I visited my local Costco this morning to join in the general panic, if there were one. Here in NJ, we've been deprived of any of the awful grandeur of a big nor'easter snowstorm this year, so this was my shot.

As a regular Costco customer, I already have too much stuff, so I probably could have skipped everything but the cat litter, which was my main object.

The paper products aisle was completely bare of anything. No paper towels, toilet paper or tissues. I was surprised, as NJ seemed fairly low-key about everything so far. On the other hand, there was plenty of water, and even chlorox wipes were back in stock, though no longer on sale and with a purchase limit (also a limit on rice). My only emergency purchase was canned chicken breast. Never bought it before. I'll try it as chicken salad tomorrow.

 

[gwraigty]

My conclusion? If you have no COVID-19 in your area, now is the time to stock up at the grocery store so that you don't have to battle any crowds or fights over groceries that might develop later on.

Agree wholeheartedly! This morning the bottled water supply at Meijer was quite low, which is unusual. Bags of the cheap rice were low on stock, same as at Walmart last Friday. I needed a few ingredients for homemade Chinese recipes and the sauces section was out of stock in many things and quite low in others.

My chest freezer in the basement is just about full. I still have plenty of room for more shelf stable items. I'm working on making a list of recipes to make sure I have the necessary ingredients.

 

[TromboneAl]

Tried canned green beans last night. Not bad at all.

 

[W2R]

Agree wholeheartedly! This morning the bottled water supply at Meijer was quite low, which is unusual. Bags of the cheap rice were low on stock, same as at Walmart last Friday. I needed a few ingredients for homemade Chinese recipes and the sauces section was out of stock in many things and quite low in others.

My chest freezer in the basement is just about full. I still have plenty of room for more shelf stable items. I'm working on making a list of recipes to make sure I have the necessary ingredients.

I forgot to get bottled water! Thank you for reminding me. Forgetting it was probably a Freudian slip since I keep thinking that there is no reason for tap water to dry up just due to the virus (and I could boil it on the stove to sterilize it). Still, people say to buy it, and it's good to have some around for hurricane season anyway when water availability really IS a concern. Guess I'll have to drop by the grocery store again this afternoon or tomorrow for bottled water. I wonder what else I forgot.

 

[tmm99]

Things seem to be looking pretty crazy over here at Costco's in Canada also from what I understand since the ministry of Health advised to stock up. I think this is happening more at Costos than other stores and probably just in big cities with coronavirus cases though. If you wait long enough for the whole page to load, you see several photos of what things look like at Costco's in different areas.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/coronavirus-canada-stockpiling

I just came back from a local Walmart and there were still a lot of toilet paper, bleach, disinfectant wipes, etc. No more 90% alcohol or hand sanitizers though, but plenty of other things. I did find some pocket-size hand sanitizers at Dollarama although there weren't many. Other grocery stores looked pretty normal too, but this city I live in hasn't had any coronavirus cases.

 

[tmm99]

My only emergency purchase was canned chicken breast. Never bought it before. I'll try it as chicken salad tomorrow.

I bought 30 cans of it last week although I had never had them either myself. It wasn't bad at all IMHO. I was pleasantly surprised.

 

[Midpack]

A health care worker in Placerville was diagnosed yesterday which means likely many people have been exposed. Since we aren’t far from there it will be here soon.

Not sure about drawing that conclusion. Not all, but most health care workers take more precautions, PPE and cleanliness, than the rest of us 24/7/365 to protect themselves from the public - knowing they can't predict what the public will expose them to. And I am sure HC workers were the first/most to take added precautions as soon as it started in Wuhan. I'm way more worried about Joe Q Public than health care workers. YMMV

 

[Kwirk]

most health care workers take more precautions

I'm not sure that the health care system has caught up with the current situation. At this point I think health care workers need to be almost as concerned about infection by their co-workers as by patients, given the long incubation period and transmission with minimal/no symptoms. Current policy in hospitals is typically no gloves worn in hallways or when using keyboards. I can understand the intent of the policy (to force glove changes between patients) but I think it needs to change. Perhaps there should be a different color glove worn when not in a patient room.

 

[sengsational]

It may sound alarmist, but we need to see the numbers.

My very early back of the envelope calculation two weeks ago suggested that several million seniors in North America would succumb. I haven't seen anything to suggest that was completely out of the ball park.
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f38/coronavirus-health-aspects-101852-43.html#post2372370