Dire situation in New York State

[aja8888]

I wish funerals would go away. If people want to get together to talk about how great somebody is, why can't they do it while the person's alive and can enjoy?

Yeah, and the person that really would appreciate hearing the praise is dead.

 

[NW-Bound]

Why pick on this funeral? It could have been a wedding, a rally, a sports game, a cruise ship, an airplane load.

The question is, knowing what we know now, how can anyone still compare it to a flu?

I read the story about the funeral in Albany on another free Web site. And it was not recent, but back in Feb 28. This could have happened to anybody.

There were only 63 cases in the entire US on Feb 28. There are almost 187,000 cases now on March 31.

There were no cases in the entire state of Georgia on Feb 28. Back then, this was called a hoax. Who brought the virus to the funeral? The following article has the answer. It's free access.

See: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--reg...cts-heavy-toll-albany/xC9NO677gfDQSaGEQDXSAN/

Albany’s closest interstate is I-75, some 40 miles to the east. And the local regional airport gets just a few Delta Connection flights from Atlanta each day...

The service was for 64-year-old Andrew J. Mitchell, an Albany native who worked in custodial services and who died from what his family believes was heart failure. Mitchell came from a large family, and on Feb. 28 as many as 100 people came by the funeral home for visitation. The next day, seven of his siblings attended the funeral, along with dozens of his nieces, nephews, cousins and their own families. Some guests traveled in from as far away as Louisiana, Washington, D.C., and Hawaii. They greeted each other with tight handshakes, long embraces and kisses.

“The minister, he was shaking pretty much everybody’s hand, just giving the family comfort and condolences,” Mitchell’s niece Chiquita Coleman said. “The funeral home officiants, they were kind of doing the same thing. That’s kind of their job, to give comfort. So there was a lot of touching and hugging and hand-shaking.”

...

When reports of the virus first came out of China late last year, Phoebe CEO Steiner said the hospital tried to prepare by building up a six-month store of supplies. The hospital burned through that stockpile in seven days when the virus hit, he said...

 

[Just_Steve]

Anyone else in Dutchess County might find this new county dashboard of interest.

https://dcny.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8905f4428f3148d0bffd50a2f3e4db11

 

[NameRedacted]

I'm rereading World War Z. If you haven't read it, the book is based on stories from individuals telling about the progression of a virus. The stories are interesting, because it fills in gaps on how it was originally found, to how it spread globally and various societal reactions along the way. Of course it's all fiction, but I can see that in a couple of years, we might have similar content available for the coronavirus based on examples like this. That'll be interesting reading.

And thanks for the follow-up on these old cases.

Sounds like it would be an interesting book.


"What did you do during World War C?"
"Oh - I stayed home and watched Netflix."
"Well I fended off hordes of rabid Coronavirus zombies with a catapult that I constructed from excess toilet rolls!"
"Really!"
"Nah - just kidding - I stayed home and watched TV."


mmm - on second thoughts, maybe not.

 

[Fermion]

Sounds like a comment I read today on yahoo.

Guy on date: "So what do you do for a living?"

Girl on date: "I am an instagram model"

Girl on date: "What do you do?"

Guy on date: "I am a soldier in Call of Duty"

 

[GravitySucks]

Yeah, and the person that really would appreciate hearing the praise is dead.

Give flowers to the ones you love now.
Trust me on this one.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Give flowers to the ones you love now.
Trust me on this one.

That's a good point. I imagine florists are being HAMMERED right now. No weddings, funerals with no attendees, just a bad deal for them.

 

[Alan]

That's a good point. I imagine florists are being HAMMERED right now. No weddings, funerals with no attendees, just a bad deal for them.

It was Mothers' Day in the UK last Sunday. On Monday our son told us that the grocery store he went to was giving away free bunches of flowers rather than destroy them.

 

[Chuckanut]

Give flowers to the ones you love now.
Trust me on this one.

My guess is the florist shops are not on the approved list of businesses that don't have to shut down. But, I agree. Do something now for your loved ones.

 

[NameRedacted]

Not much new from today's conference call.


At current levels of usage the State will run out of ventilators in 6 days. They are looking at using BIPAP machines for the less critical cases. It's also unclear if the 'running out' assumes no splitting of ventilators. They have 2200 unused ventilators at the moment but are putting them into use at the rate of 350 a day.

 

[dd564]

Not much new from today's conference call.


At current levels of usage the State will run out of ventilators in 6 days. They are looking at using BIPAP machines for the less critical cases. It's also unclear if the 'running out' assumes no splitting of ventilators. They have 2200 unused ventilators at the moment but are putting them into use at the rate of 350 a day.

Looking at some of the projections the need for ventilators will peak on the 8th or 9th as you said.
But those same projections project they need 75k beds and that currently they need 50k beds.
Well, right now they have a total of 83k cases.
50k of the 83 cases need hospital beds? I don't believe that.


Hopefully the period at which they don't have enough ventilators is a short period of only a couple days. The shortage aligns with the peak and being short only for a period of 2-3 days as the peak comes and goes would be good.

 

[ivinsfan]

Not much new from today's conference call.


At current levels of usage the State will run out of ventilators in 6 days. They are looking at using BIPAP machines for the less critical cases. It's also unclear if the 'running out' assumes no splitting of ventilators. They have 2200 unused ventilators at the moment but are putting them into use at the rate of 350 a day.

And here is where the rubber meets the road..What happens if someone has been on a vent for an extended period and shows no sign of recovery. Do you just leave them on the vent endlessly and deny some new a chance to recover? Either way someone is going to die.

 

[jim584672]

I read there is a 80% chance of dying once you need a ventilator with this virus.

 

[dd564]

I read there is a 80% chance of dying once you need a ventilator with this virus.

If you are infected, your rate of death is between 2% (in Germany) to 15% (in Italy).

With projections showing about 12% of infected need ventilators, those stats would seem consistent with current fatality rates.

 

[dd564]

And here is where the rubber meets the road..What happens if someone has been on a vent for an extended period and shows no sign of recovery. Do you just leave them on the vent endlessly and deny some new a chance to recover? Either way someone is going to die.

I would assume it's first in get them and new patients don't.
Horrible situation if it comes to this. Hopefully the curve stays low enough where it's not a common occurrence.

 

[Boho]

I read there is a 80% chance of dying once you need a ventilator with this virus.

Here's how that compares with non-coronavirus patients, from a June 2018 New York Times article.

After intubation, 31 percent of patients ages 65 to 74 survive the hospitalization and return home. But for 80- to 84-year-olds, that figure drops to 19 percent; for those over age 90, it slides to 14 percent.

 

[cathy63]

I would assume it's first in get them and new patients don't.
Horrible situation if it comes to this. Hopefully the curve stays low enough where it's not a common occurrence.

That's an incorrect assumption. States and hospitals have triage plans for what to do when supplies get low.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...-triage-could-look-like-in-u-s-hospitals.html

In Michigan, the guidelines suggest hospitals could prioritize care and access to ICU beds and ventilators for those performing “essential social functions” — like doctors, nurses, police, military members, and firefighters. In Minnesota, the guidelines detail the determinations doctors must take to decide if patients should be placed on a ventilator, including likelihood of death and underlying conditions. In a crisis, palliative care “may be the only care that is able to be provided due to the patient’s prognosis and available resources.”

New York’s ventilator guidelines do not prioritize by profession, but do recommend that hospitals list conditions based on “immediate or near-immediate mortality even with aggressive therapy.” Patients would then be ranked according to likelihood of survival and the level that they would benefit from a ventilator. In cases of equal need, age would be used as a tiebreaker. Dr. Patricia Powell, a bioethics director at Montefiore Health System, a major provider in southern New York, told NBC News that “you might not get access to a ventilator if you get a prognosis that no matter what, you probably won’t get better.”

 

[NameRedacted]

Looking at some of the projections the need for ventilators will peak on the 8th or 9th as you said.
But those same projections project they need 75k beds and that currently they need 50k beds.
Well, right now they have a total of 83k cases.
50k of the 83 cases need hospital beds? I don't believe that.


Hopefully the period at which they don't have enough ventilators is a short period of only a couple days. The shortage aligns with the peak and being short only for a period of 2-3 days as the peak comes and goes would be good.

Not sure what numbers you're actually looking at. I'm no expert on this by any means but let me try and guess at an explanation.

• Most people that get the disease don't show up in the stats, it's only the most critical that get tested in most cases.
• They need hospital beds for people that have other life threatening conditions too - not just Covid.
• The number of available beds usually quoted is for the whole of New York State whereas the disease is concentrated downstate.

He said that the hospitals have managed to increase existing capacity quite impressively. The Javits center and the hospital ship USNS Comfort have come online but we still need permission from the Federal Government to treat Covid-19 patients in them. They are building two new temporary hospitals in Brooklyn and on Staten Island. (I don't remember exactly when he said they would be ready - I think it was 1-2 weeks or so). They have already started shifting patients to existing upstate facilities.



The Governor did say today that beds weren't his number one concern and the greatest need was for ventilators. If they need more beds they would just use hotels or dormitories or whatever it takes, but without ventilators people just die.


That's all I really remember on the subject of beds from today's call _ I'm sorry I don't remember the numbers. I think the maximum was still 140,000 state wide.

 

[NameRedacted]

Yep Governor Cuomo quoted that exact figure today. That's terrible when you think about it.

 

[Amethyst]

By the time you need a ventilator, are you not at death's door to begin with?

I read there is a 80% chance of dying once you need a ventilator with this virus.

 

[NW-Bound]

In Wuhan, the news leaked out very early from the residents that many COVID-19 patients died at home, or before they got admitted to hospitals to be tested for confirmation. These deaths did not get counted in the statistics.

And as expected, Italy now recognizes that there have been deaths at home, and the cause of death is listed as "respiratory illness". The number is significant, but it is not exactly known. It makes sense that in a crisis like this when there's not enough manpower to take care of the patients still breathing, nobody has time to make a nasal swab and run test on dead bodies.

There have been reports of people dying either at home or at a hospital in NYC before any test was made. I don't know if we have a procedure to take a swab anyway to test.

 

[Aerides]

By the time you need a ventilator, are you not at death's door to begin with?

Depends. I've read a couple stories from Covid survivors who have made it off them. Really depends on if you are able to fight the virus and whether your lungs can hang in there. Over 20 years ago, I spent a day on one when a lung collapsed from an unrelated surgical issue.

I don't believe any stats that say "covid patients survival rate after going on a vent" because it's just too soon right now for the data to be strong enough. Maybe in another month.

 

[Sunset]

And here is where the rubber meets the road..What happens if someone has been on a vent for an extended period and shows no sign of recovery. Do you just leave them on the vent endlessly and deny some new a chance to recover? Either way someone is going to die.

Bring your checkbook

 

[Sunset]

That's an incorrect assumption. States and hospitals have triage plans for what to do when supplies get low.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...-triage-could-look-like-in-u-s-hospitals.html

In Michigan, the guidelines suggest hospitals could prioritize care and access to ICU beds and ventilators for those performing “essential social functions” — like doctors, nurses, police, military members, and firefighters. ......”

New York’s ventilator guidelines do not prioritize by profession,......”

Sounds like Michigan is a bad place to be a lawyer ...

 

[jim584672]

New York extended the open enrollment period for ACA to May 15, 2020.