Dire situation in New York State

[brewer12345]

Results from 48,600 tests in California are still pending. So the results are still under-reported.

https://calmatters.org/health/2020/03/california-coronavirus-test-results-delayed-backlog/

The only state that has been testing on a large scale and reporting results is New York. California went into lock down a week ago and San Francisco two weeks ago due to a lack of test kits and recommendations by local public health officials to stop the spread. This was a wise move. They mayor of Los Angeles has told people to expect the lock down to last into May. He has taken action to close down locations where people were still gathering in large numbers. Officials in this state are taking the matter seriously and this state will get through this with minimum casualties.

There are 150,000 test kits that California acquired from Hong Kong that should allow a ramp up of testing. The statements made by federal officials about "millions of test kits being distributed" are about as real as the Google website for scheduling your test.

In about 6 weeks things should be back to normal in this state. But the issue is that without a national lock down, we will be faced with returning waves of infections.

I also have to wonder how effective a lockdown will be when you are in an area with a large homeless population. Could easily serve as a reservoir of virus for recurring infection waves even if there is no influx from other states/abroad.

 

[Freedom56]

I also have to wonder how effective a lockdown will be when you are in an area with a large homeless population. Could easily serve as a reservoir of virus for recurring infection waves even if there is no influx from other states/abroad.

Officials have been moving the homeless off the streets to hotels and motels that were otherwise empty. Hospitals here are not being overrun with cases so far. Officials here started to take actions after the infections at the senior home in Washington state. Many companies in the San Francisco Bay area started to lock down weeks before the city lock downs. This was the same for Los Angeles.

 

[brewer12345]

Officials have been moving the homeless off the streets to hotels and motels that were otherwise empty. Hospitals here are not being overrun with cases so far. Officials here started to take actions after the infections at the senior home in Washington state. Many companies in the San Francisco Bay area started to lock down weeks before the city lock downs. This was the same for Los Angeles.

That is good to hear. I have a funny feeling that all of this is just buying time/flattening the curve. As soon as lockdowns are relaxed no doubt case numbers will go back up.

 

[Tiger8693]

I agree 100%.
Finger points because some of those leaders from other states have to blame someone so they look good. They aren't much of a leader if they keep blaming someone else for what is happening. We need to listen and get through this thing together.

The one thing that stands out for me in NY issue they as a state were slow into shutting down and keeping people at home. A lot of the finger pointers need to look at what they didn't do to make some difference also.

+1. We have a "union" of states, for a reason. Governors are supposed to act as the "President" of their state. Anyone with any sense would understand that the very density of population in NYC/5 Burroughs would lead to high transmission rate, so instead of waiting for Feds to issue nationwide lockdown, they should have acted for themselves. Even before the postmortem of "who shot JR" that will ultimately happen at the end of this, Governors are jockeying to be able to point the finger away from where true responsibility lies. Until our Constitutional Republic is changed to another form of government, the 4 fingers pointing back are most correct. Once it was more of a national issue, the Feds did what they should do from our system which is support from national strategic reserves, where and what is available, and ratchet aid and support from there. The question of whether we should have been more prepared for a national (worldwide) pandemic, is the one that should be asked in the postmortem of this situation. That certainly will be reflected in multiple administrations failures (if it is a failure), not just one.

 

[anethum]

FWIW, according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, Germany has 2x the infection rate per capita as the USA. Those European countries that have higher infection rates are( in decreasing order): Netherlands, France, Luxembourg, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Monaco, Austria Belgium, Norway, Germany, France Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal, Denmark, Slovenia

I see no relationship between universal healthcare and infection rate. Drs and hospitals have no influence on one's social and personal health habits.

We don't have a clue what the actual infection rate is in the USA because of the testing debacle. It's likely that the infection rate figures for Germany are much more accurate than here because of their aggresive testing. Therefore I would not assume that the infection rate per capita is necessarily lower in the USA than in Germany.

I believe it's blatantly obvious that the lack of health insurance (and exorbitant deductibles for many who have health insurance), is a serious disincentive for millions of Americans to promptly seek medical care when they get sick, especially those merely mildly sick. Add the high number of homeless in America, and you've got a recipe for the quick spread of an infectious disease.

Too many people are allowing their political leanings to blind them to a consistent message, based on science and data, that is coming from physicians and epidemiologists.

 

[JoeWras]

Too many people are allowing their political leanings to blind them to a consistent message, based on science and data, that is coming from physicians and epidemiologists.

Oh please.

 

[Sunset]

That is good to hear. I have a funny feeling that all of this is just buying time/flattening the curve. As soon as lockdowns are relaxed no doubt case numbers will go back up.

My impression is the same, just looking at China, they are not back to normal.
They have had about a 2 month lockdown (and people here complain about 2 weeks) , and even now are only slowly opening it back up.
Movie theaters there are still ordered shutdown.

 

[Tiger8693]

I believe it's blatantly obvious that the lack of health insurance (and exorbitant deductibles for many who have health insurance), is a serious disincentive for millions of Americans to promptly seek medical care when they get sick, especially those merely mildly sick. Add the high number of homeless in America, and you've got a recipe for the quick spread of an infectious disease.

Too many people are allowing their political leanings to blind them to a consistent message, based on science and data, that is coming from physicians and epidemiologists.

Like yours? Sorry, but this pandemic is not going to drive the country to the universal government run healthcare some think will solve the "worlds" problems. Using this crisis to push agendas was tried and failed (mostly) in the exorbitant spending bill.

 

[Chuckanut]

Quite a contrast from what originally came out of Wuhan. In NY, almost 1/2 are under 50.

I am wondering if the early reports of people under 40 being asymptomatic or only getting a very mild version of CV19, let many younger people to think they had some sort of hall pass when it came to taking preventive action.

So, being more careless than we old folks, who got the FOG rammed down our throats, the youngsters took more risks and now are paying the price. I don't know for sure. It's a possibility.

 

[Gumby]

MOD NOTE - arguing politics will get your posts deleted and may result in loss of posting privileges.

 

[braumeister]

I am wondering if the early reports of people under 40 being asymptomatic or only getting a very mild version of CV19, let many younger people to think they had some sort of hall pass when it came to taking preventive action.

Quite possible.
I drove across town yesterday to drop off a bunch of masks at a donation point. On the way I went through several different residential neighborhoods and since it was a beautiful afternoon there were lots of people out walking and jogging. I was struck by the fact that every group of teenagers looked completely normal (all bunched up together) while the older folks were keeping a reasonable distance from one another. So I think there must be some degree of either denial or ignorance involved.

 

[easysurfer]

My impression is the same, just looking at China, they are not back to normal.
They have had about a 2 month lockdown (and people here complain about 2 weeks) , and even now are only slowly opening it back up.
Movie theaters there are still ordered shutdown.

Watched a video conference interview on CNN's website with Bill Gates. He was saying a sustained shelter in place is the way to go. Not the mentioned start getting some people back to work sooner. The funny part of the interview I thought was when Anderson Cooper asked Bill Gates why a phasing in return to work based by county wouldn't work (as some counties only have a few cases), Bill Gates when on geek mode and pointed out, "The cases grow exponentially."

 

[ivinsfan]

Watched a video conference interview on CNN's website with Bill Gates. He was saying a sustained shelter in place is the way to go. Not the mentioned start getting some people back to work sooner. The funny part of the interview I thought was when Anderson Cooper asked Bill Gates why a phasing in return to work based by county wouldn't work (as some counties only have a few cases), Bill Gates when on geek mode and pointed out, "The cases grow exponentially."

And suddenly Bill Gates is a pandemic expert

 

[Fermion]

Surprisingly, the majority of hospitalizations are under the age of 50.

Maybe not so surprising? People in their 50s to 80s have been hearing for weeks that this is worse in their age group so perhaps they took the warnings more seriously than the under age 50 group?

 

[Fermion]

And suddenly Bill Gates is a pandemic expert

Well, it is quite easy to shelter in place for months when your house is 63,000 square feet and includes a bowling alley.

 

[CardsFan]

This one?

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary

Am I missing something? That looks like total number of cases for NYC, not hospitalizations.

 

[easysurfer]

And suddenly Bill Gates is a pandemic expert

I do have to agree with Bill Gates on this one. About the exponential growth. One day is 10 infections, then multiply by say, 30% the next day, then by 30% the next day, and so on.

However, a good Bill Gates joke I saw someone comment is "Bill Gates has been fighting viruses since Windows 95" .

 

[ivinsfan]

I do have to agree with Bill Gates on this one. About the exponential growth. One day is 10 infections, then multiply by say, 30% the next day, then by 30% the next day, and so on.

However, a good Bill Gates joke I saw someone comment is "Bill Gates has been fighting viruses since Windows 95" .

I didn't say his comments were wrong just wondering why he's on cable news talking about this stuff.

 

[easysurfer]

I didn't say his comments were wrong just wondering why he's on cable news talking about this stuff.

I think maybe because his life after Microsoft with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Just my hunch.

 

[Freedom56]

We don't have a clue what the actual infection rate is in the USA because of the testing debacle. It's likely that the infection rate figures for Germany are much more accurate than here because of their aggresive testing. Therefore I would not assume that the infection rate per capita is necessarily lower in the USA than in Germany.

I believe it's blatantly obvious that the lack of health insurance (and exorbitant deductibles for many who have health insurance), is a serious disincentive for millions of Americans to promptly seek medical care when they get sick, especially those merely mildly sick. Add the high number of homeless in America, and you've got a recipe for the quick spread of an infectious disease.

Too many people are allowing their political leanings to blind them to a consistent message, based on science and data, that is coming from physicians and epidemiologists.

Agree, the testing has been a complete debacle. Many people in this country don't believe in science and that's not going to change. You can't BS your way out of a pandemic. What is more disturbing is that many are talking about accepting the casualties among the elderly and frail and just open things up again. Some are talking about the pandemic as a way of getting people off social security. Opening up everything too early will make things worse.

[Mod Edit]

 

[sengsational]

They are importing serologic test kits from South Korea. (snip) The problem is that some say it is not 100% reliable. (snip)

The US test has sensitivity 89% (19% think they've had it and are safe, but they're not) and specificity at 91% (9% are told they haven't had it, but they really have recovered from it). The first one is troubling...one in five waltz out into the world and either spread it or get it. I'd like to see sensitivity MUCH higher![https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/]

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Daily Data Summary

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths.pdf

What I took-away from those NY death statistics is the underlying condition rates. After removing the ones where they don't know if there were underlying conditions, the split between no underlying conditions fatalities and total fatalities is lower (2%) in the two older cohorts, and higher (6% to 8%) in the younger cohorts. So if you're young AND have a an underlying condition, you're at greater risk than old and with an underlying condition. Hmmm.

I didn't say his comments were wrong just wondering why he's on cable news talking about this stuff.

Maybe because Bill Gates has been directing world health foundation for, what, 20 years? I'm not a member of the Billy fan club, but he's got a solid background in global health due to having to decide where and how to dole out his billions to global health needs.

 

[garyt]

Am I missing something? That looks like total number of cases for NYC, not hospitalizations.

It does say this: These data include cases in NYC residents and foreign residents treated in NYC facilities. Does that mean hospitalizations or out patients too?

 

[garyt]

I wouldn't think yesterday's deaths would say anything about flattening the curve. Those people could've been sick for weeks, hanging on till now.

 

[harley]

I didn't say his comments were wrong just wondering why he's on cable news talking about this stuff.

I think maybe because his life after Microsoft with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Just my hunch.

Yeah, seriously? I think he is pretty well informed on this sort of thing based on all the work his foundation has done on health, hygiene, and infectious diseases. They've given grants in the multi billions of dollars to fight just this sort of situation. You don't give that kind of money and focus your foundation on that without having interest and developing a lot of at least high level knowledge about the subject.

 

[CardsFan]

It does say this: These data include cases in NYC residents and foreign residents treated in NYC facilities. Does that mean hospitalizations or out patients too?

Well, the graph clearly says "Positive cases of COVID-19 in New York City". So, I think we are NOT looking at hospitalizations, but rather everyone that has been tested.

Does any one know for sure?