Dire situation in New York State

[Teacher Terry]

Reno has opened up the event center for our homeless so they could scrub down the shelters. They are trying to get everyone off the streets.

 

[audreyh1]

And suddenly Bill Gates is a pandemic expert

He’s been working with disease experts on public health issues for years and years, so yes I give him credit for being knowledgeable on the subject and informed by experts.

 

[ivinsfan]

Agree, the testing has been a complete debacle. Many people in this country don't believe in science and that's not going to change. You can't BS your way out of a pandemic. What is more disturbing is that many are talking about accepting the casualties among the elderly and frail and just open things up again. Some are talking about the pandemic as a way of getting people off social security. Opening up everything too early will make things worse.

With respect to the homeless, social distancing is already going on. People stay away from them even before this pandemic. Ironically, their immune systems are much stronger than the average person as they survive in less than sterile environments.

Who are these "Many" talking about it's a way to get old people off of SS, come on now..

 

[ivinsfan]

He’s been working with disease experts on public health issues for years and years, so yes I give him credit for being knowledgeable on the subject and informed by experts.

He certainly knows more then the average Joe, sometimes I just feel like there are too many" experts" adding to public's panic. There is just an overwhelming amount of noise going on with COVID..it's hard to filter anything.

 

[ivinsfan]

Yeah, seriously? I think he is pretty well informed on this sort of thing based on all the work his foundation has done on health, hygiene, and infectious diseases. They've given grants in the multi billions of dollars to fight just this sort of situation. You don't give that kind of money and focus your foundation on that without having interest and developing a lot of at least high level knowledge about the subject.

He's the face of his foundations definitely, so does one assume he studies this himself or is repeating info he gets from experts in his foundation?


You don't have to fund a foundation to know that infected people wandering at will in public will cause huge spikes in cases. 24 hours news cycles are hard to fill . I wonder how many times people will need to be told to stay at home before they actually realize it applies to them and not just other people.

 

[CRLLS]

Interesting data point that I just found that makes me curious. https://covidtracking.com tracks individual states' data. Illinois has a 14% positive result in testing while NY has a bit over 30%. I would expect that the results should be closer. And yet their death rates are very similar, 1.1% vs 1.2% respectively. Are they using different tests? Is NY only testing those really, really symptomatic? I know that both NY and IL have very limited testing capacity. Is there anywhere that tabulates the number requested vs the number actually tested?

 

[Sunset]

.... I wonder how many times people will need to be told to stay at home before they actually realize it applies to them and not just other people.

Perhaps the message going out needs to be fixed.
I watched a commercial by the CDC, in it they said young folks need to shelter in place to protect from infecting old folks....

Tell those young folks that they need to shelter in place to avoid getting it and dying and then they might listen.

 

[USGrant1962]

Perhaps the message going out needs to be fixed.
I watched a commercial by the CDC, in it they said young folks need to shelter in place to protect from infecting old folks....

Tell those young folks that they need to shelter in place to avoid getting it and dying and then they might listen.

Where did you see this commercial? Because AFAIK CDC is not recommending shelter in place for anyone except older and at-risk people, anyone feeling sick, and anyone with a positive COVID-19 result in the family.

I just looked again on CDC's website and they are not recommending universal shelter in place anywhere I can find.

 

[Aerides]

[Mod Note]

Several posts here are attempting to bring politics and homelessness issues into the thread. In a normal situation, we'd allow a little reasonable leeway, but I don't think anyone would think these days are normal.

Given the gravity of the current situation in NY, the mod team very much wants to be able to keep this thread open, but let's please stick very strictly to covid specifics here and not bring in any distractions which will quickly and easily derail this topic.

***********************

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I just caught up on this thread (had a couple days of posts to read), and it has been disappointing to say the least. The finger pointing is incredible.

So many people think (including people here) that things can just instantly happen from nothing. Why aren't there enough tests? Why is there no canned food in a super market? And so on. In the mean time how many of you had to rush out and buy things because YOU weren't prepared.

Looking at the actual REPORTED testing numbers, there are now over 107K test RESULTS PER DAY in the United States, and that does not include all private labs (with the legislation signed last night they too will be required to report their results). This is up 3 times the rate of a week ago.

There is also positive news on test turnaround, now that Abbott's in facility test can do screening in 5-10 minutes: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere. These machines are already in tons of hospitals and other medical facilities. I see this as especially important for front line workers who will likely need repeated testing.

All I am saying is that there are many, many people working on a variety of fronts to fight this thing. There will be plenty of time afterwards to look back at what might have been done better and who should have done what. Quite frankly, I'm disappointed in my fellow ER.org travelers...perhaps we should all settle down a bit.

ETA: As I was crafting this, the moderator posted. I hope my post wasn't out of line - in fact Aerides pretty much is stating my feelings in a much more succinct way.

 

[Boho]

What I think should have happened is in the couple of weeks before the panic buying the government should have reminded people of the pre-existing recommendations to keep a couple of weeks of...

Well, I looked at the top few results for the search term site:.gov preparedness canned and text searched the pages for weeks and days and there was no match. I know I've at least seen official recommendations for keeping bottled water that will last a certain amount of time in an emergency. So, another thing that should happen is these federal government webpages on food related disaster planning should be more complete.

I was going to say that considering the possible pandemic the recommendation should have been to keep food that will last even longer than the normal recommendation, but I couldn't even immediately find the normal recommendation so I guess I have to lower my expectations of government competence even further.

 

[Gumby]

Why do we need the government to tell us this? It seems fairly easy to figure out on our own that we should have a little extra food on hand in case of an emergency..

 

[NW-Bound]

And suddenly Bill Gates is a pandemic expert

Bill Gates gave a talk on TED 4 years ago, saying that the world was not ready to handle a pandemic. That was prescient.

Yeah, seriously? I think he is pretty well informed on this sort of thing based on all the work his foundation has done on health, hygiene, and infectious diseases. They've given grants in the multi billions of dollars to fight just this sort of situation. You don't give that kind of money and focus your foundation on that without having interest and developing a lot of at least high level knowledge about the subject.

I used to dislike Bill Gates and Microsoft for their underhanded tactics to hurt smaller competitors. Then, I read more about Gates' effort in his humanitarian aids, and he just did not give out billions of dollars without trying to achieve maximum effectiveness for that money. He's smart enough to listen to experts. I figure a lot of people come to him for money, but you cannot BS him.

I do have to agree with Bill Gates on this one. About the exponential growth. One day is 10 infections, then multiply by say, 30% the next day, then by 30% the next day, and so on.

People with a rudimentary knowledge of math understand this. Maybe 6th grade?

What is mind-boggling to me is the CEO of a car company did not understand this at all. Maybe he does now, because he recently bought some ventilators from China to donate.

I am wondering if the early reports of people under 40 being asymptomatic or only getting a very mild version of CV19, let many younger people to think they had some sort of hall pass when it came to taking preventive action.

So, being more careless than we old folks, who got the FOG rammed down our throats, the youngsters took more risks and now are paying the price. I don't know for sure. It's a possibility.

What is also perplexing is the death counts in Italy vs. Germany. Many of the deads in Italy were of old age, although younger Italians die too.

People do not realize that the median age is higher in Germany vs. Italy. It may be that German elders are more careful than their Italian counterparts. If they get infected, they may just die at the same rate.

We have to look at the death rate vs. the hospitalization rate for each age group. Young people below 60 die too, with a lower rate. But if they get infected at a higher rate due to their care-free attitude, their death count will be high.

The media and politicians should have stressed again and again that young people do get sick and some die. Young and dump people need that. Again, not just Americans but young Europeans are also dumb.

 

[11522914]

+1. We have a "union" of states, for a reason. Governors are supposed to act as the "President" of their state. Anyone with any sense would understand that the very density of population in NYC/5 Burroughs would lead to high transmission rate, so instead of waiting for Feds to issue nationwide lockdown, they should have acted for themselves. Even before the postmortem of "who shot JR" that will ultimately happen at the end of this, Governors are jockeying to be able to point the finger away from where true responsibility lies. Until our Constitutional Republic is changed to another form of government, the 4 fingers pointing back are most correct. Once it was more of a national issue, the Feds did what they should do from our system which is support from national strategic reserves, where and what is available, and ratchet aid and support from there. The question of whether we should have been more prepared for a national (worldwide) pandemic, is the one that should be asked in the postmortem of this situation. That certainly will be reflected in multiple administrations failures (if it is a failure), not just one.

Very well written. Thanks

 

[Winemaker]

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Daily Data Summary

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths.pdf

While it does show that under 50 range is getting hospitalized more than other areas, the footnote shows they have underlying health conditions.

We also have to realize that because of the health care system in the US is better here, we have a lot more of the general population that are "walking wounded". My son for the first 18 years of his life was a severe allergic asthmatic, hospitalized over 10 times. He has "outgrown" his condition, but I think it's the availability of more preventative drugs. Had he been in another country such as China, would he even be alive today to suffer Corona?

 

[Sunset]

Where did you see this commercial? Because AFAIK CDC is not recommending shelter in place for anyone except older and at-risk people, anyone feeling sick, and anyone with a positive COVID-19 result in the family.

I just looked again on CDC's website and they are not recommending universal shelter in place anywhere I can find.

You are correct the commercial I saw didn't say shelter in place.
Although this CDC one does which is not the one I saw on TV at the 18 second point, they say stay inside, and didn't limit it to old folks:

https://www.cdc.gov/cdctv/diseaseandconditions/outbreaks/covid-19-stop-the-spread-of-germs.html


The one I saw was telling young folks to Social Distance, or they will hurt old folks:

I guess young folks not social distancing cannot hurt each other so all is fine

 

[USGrant1962]

You are correct the commercial I saw didn't say shelter in place.
Although this CDC one does which is not the one I saw on TV at the 18 second point, they say stay inside, and didn't limit it to old folks:

https://www.cdc.gov/cdctv/diseaseandconditions/outbreaks/covid-19-stop-the-spread-of-germs.html


The one I saw was telling young folks to Social Distance, or they will hurt old folks:

I guess young folks not social distancing cannot hurt each other so all is fine

Thank you. People here and in the press are using terms very loosely. Shelter-in-place =/= social distancing =/= quarantine =/= self isolation for infected/vulnerable. These are different things.

And I agree with the bolded sentiment.

 

[sheehs1]

Why do we need the government to tell us this? It seems fairly easy to figure out on our own that we should have a little extra food on hand in case of an emergency..

+1000

Agree. As soon as the WHO declared a global pandemic and the US closed its borders to China around January 31st, I started to quietly prepare with every grocery store run buying what I knew I would use regardless. I tend to do preparedness..even with hurricanes.

Praying for New York and all of us.

 

[Boho]

If there was less fear of panicking people and people were told earlier to buy backup food, some would listen and fewer would have to stand in grocery lines later in the game with more infected people, and the infection rate would be lower. I guess you could fault people for not figuring it out on their own, but I care enough about even them to have the government suggest what they should do.

From a selfish point of view, maybe with the lower coronavirus rate I wouldn't have to remove my mid-century hamper to make room for a wash basin out of fear I'll catch coronavirus from the laundry room in my building. A lower infection rate is better for all of us.

 

[Winemaker]

+1000

Agree. As soon as the WHO declared a global pandemic and the US closed its borders to China around January 31st, I started to quietly prepare with every grocery store run buying what I knew I would use regardless. I tend to do preparedness..even with hurricanes.

Praying for New York and all of us.

WHO didn't declare a worldwide pandemic until March 11th.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-pandemic/

 

[youbet]

And suddenly Bill Gates is a pandemic expert

He's only one of many celebrities putting themselves into that role. And of the group of them, he's likely the most informed and knowledgible.

 

[iloveyoga]

Why do we need the government to tell us this? It seems fairly easy to figure out on our own that we should have a little extra food on hand in case of an emergency..

I got the two weeks worth of food idea from this board. I always keep plenty of supplies on hand, but I did start buying a bit more ahead of the curve. It makes sense that you should be able to feed your household for a while if needed.

 

[aiken]

We don't have a clue what the actual infection rate is in the USA because of the testing debacle. It's likely that the infection rate figures for Germany are much more accurate than here because of their aggresive testing. Therefore I would not assume that the infection rate per capita is necessarily lower in the USA than in Germany.

I believe it's blatantly obvious that the lack of health insurance (and exorbitant deductibles for many who have health insurance), is a serious disincentive for millions of Americans to promptly seek medical care when they get sick, especially those merely mildly sick. Add the high number of homeless in America, and you've got a recipe for the quick spread of an infectious disease.

Too many people are allowing their political leanings to blind them to a consistent message, based on science and data, that is coming from

physicians and epidemiologists.

Well, if you have the mild flu, they're going to tell you to stay home, drink plenty of water, and get some rest. If you have mild COVID, they're going to tell you the same thing.

 

[NW-Bound]

People here and in the press are using terms very loosely. Shelter-in-place =/= social distancing =/= quarantine =/= self isolation for infected/vulnerable. These are different things...

If people did what they were supposed to do, we would not need draconian lockdown. The disease spread could be tamed with less severe measures.

The problem is they didn't. They either said it was no big deal, or maybe they could go a bit more than mandated and it would still be safe. There have to be deaths with gruesome photos or videos in order for them to understand. Visuals are more striking and the images stay imprinted on the brain for longer than written words.

 

[Bigdawg]

Sadly, people have already resorted to finger pointing for something, as you said, would have made it difficult in this country to approach the success rate of S. Korea. Even on this forum, which has more level-headed individuals than just about any other website I visit, the implied political and social blame I'm seeing has been a disappointment. I had hoped for better, but it looks like politics has become a great divide in this country. Hopefully this forum survives that. I suspect this is going to cause a good amount of friction in the country as we try to work our way back into something resembling a normal lifestyle after dealing with COVID-19.

++++1000. I am seriously disappointed in this forum.