Evidence warmer temperatures slows coronavirus?

[REWahoo]

Chart shows the coronavirus spreading slowly in tropical countries

One common refrain is that many of these tropical countries are less developed, particularly in regards to their health-care systems.

“However, with the outbreak running for more than 3 months, one might expect that there should have been anecdotal data by now relating to a growing number of fatalities from a respiratory-type illness,” said Simon Powell, equity strategist at Jefferies.

A research paper came up with a similar finding. Looking at 100 Chinese cities, it found that high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19.

“This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19,” the study found.

Scientists are not yet sold there’s a link.

 

[Sunset]

Time to move to FL

 

[JoeWras]

Time to move to FL

Florida coronavirus update for Wednesday: Almost 100 new cases across state

 

[GravitySucks]

SARS was a Corona virus. It petered out by end of June. I'm still expecting the same.

 

[Rianne]

SARS was a Corona virus. It petered out by end of June. I'm still expecting the same.

But will it come back. My understanding this virus is mutating. Read there are 2 strains now. One called SARS-Covid-2, I think, I should have paid better attention in science class.


https://qz.com/1820422/coronavirus-why-wont-who-use-the-name-sars-cov-2/

 

[JoeWras]

The Southern Hemisphere is entering fall and winter. So, it won't be warm everywhere.

 

[NW-Bound]

Florida coronavirus update for Wednesday: Almost 100 new cases across state

I dunno. Considering that FL is full of geezers who dance cheek-to-cheek in The Villages as they say, that number is not that bad. Plus it's not too hot there yet. Gotta give it another month.

 

[NW-Bound]

The Southern Hemisphere is entering fall and winter. So, it won't be warm everywhere.

Travel industry will bounce back, when snowbirds have to travel a lot further to look for safety.

 

[aaronc879]

It's in the mid-80's every day in most of Florida and cases are increasing rapidly so I doubt it matters.

 

[donheff]

According to this map Florida may be a hot zone of virus. This is from the temperature tracking thermometer company that was able to beat the CDC by weeks on flu hot spots.

 

[VanWinkle]

The amount of direct ultra violet light is higher where the climate is warmer. From my understanding, the sunlight is what impedes the virus, so the warmer the climate, the more direct sunshine. Northern locations will receive the same benefit as the spring changes to summer. A science teacher here in Florida explained it that way to me. Who knows if he is right!!

 

[NW-Bound]

According to this map Florida may be a hot zone of virus. This is from the temperature tracking thermometer company that was able to beat the CDC by weeks on flu hot spots.

I have not seen a detailed report on the demographics of Covid-19 patients in Florida. I wonder if the higher rate of infection has anything to do with the socializing activities of seniors there. That alone can trump any temperature effect.

PS. Here in Arizona, where we have some recent cases, not much has been given out regarding the circumstances. I think they do that to prevent the frenzy that happened when the info about the very 1st case in the state was released. There were demos and protests and all the drama.

 

[Gumby]

This article explains why the regular flu is more prevalent in winter. I would assume that these factors also apply to COVID 19, but I don't know for sure. Of interest to me, it also explains the derivation of the word "flu".

The Reason for the Season: why flu strikes in winter - Science in the News

 

[audreyh1]

SARS was a Corona virus. It petered out by end of June. I'm still expecting the same.

That sure would be nice, even if it does come back later.

It’s been early warm and humid around here.

 

[Dtail]

That sure would be nice, even if it does come back later.

It’s been early warm and humid around here.

Same here.
Currently, there is a cluster of cases in FLA around Miami and Ft Lauderdale.
We heard that one town Pembroke Pines is effectively on lockdown.

 

[sengsational]

But will it come back. My understanding this virus is mutating. Read there are 2 strains now. One called SARS-Covid-2, I think, I should have paid better attention in science class.


https://qz.com/1820422/coronavirus-why-wont-who-use-the-name-sars-cov-2/

I won't comment about your aptitude in science class, but I would like to quote a bit of the article. For those who have followed closely, this will be no surprise:

To be clear, Covid-19 refers to the disease. The virus that causes the disease is SARS-CoV-2

So that's not 2 strains. The article doesn't use the word "strain".

There are 4 or 5 strains, based on reporting by Peter Attia (who is an MD clinician with a staff of researchers concentrating on this pandemic). I've been keeping up on reports from this source as my primary evidence-based consolidator. To date, there has been no reports (not even hints) that higher temperatures will affect the spread. I hope they're missing it, of course. That would be a nice surprise.

 

[Aerides]

Same here.
Currently, there is a cluster of cases in FLA around Miami and Ft Lauderdale.
We heard that one town Pembroke Pines is effectively on lockdown.

I don't believe P-Pines is any different than the rest of Miami/Broward right now. I'm an hour from there, and have friends there not reporting anything different than we have in Boca. Across the SE-Fla area though: schools, parks, beaches, some malls, many retail outlets, closed or closing.

But lockdown implies officials staying do not leave your home - and that hasn't been reported.

ETA: Until the past week, it hasn't been particularly warm in SE-Fla. We've had cooler temps off and on that went well into the early part of March. Of course, by cooler, it means maybe 50 overnight - nothing lower than that since earlier in Feb iirc.

 

[Spock]

There is no evidence of anything yet with this new virus. It's brand new so it hasn't been studied and understood yet.

It's said (rumored?) that it can hang in the air for 20 minutes (another said hours) after somebody sneezes and survive on surfaces for days (one article said 9 days) which is much longer than other coronas.

Personally I doubt that warm weather will do anything to it... its not like Australia (opposite season of the US) is better off.

 

[NW-Bound]

This article explains why the regular flu is more prevalent in winter. I would assume that these factors also apply to COVID 19, but I don't know for sure. Of interest to me, it also explains the derivation of the word "flu".

The Reason for the Season: why flu strikes in winter - Science in the News

The article talks about an experiment with temperatures of 41F, 68F, and 86F. However, there is no chart for the 86F case.

And it would be difficult to find guinea pigs that can survive 110F, but that's what we will have here in the SW in a few months.

 

[Gumby]

The article talks about an experiment with temperatures of 41F, 68F, and 86F. However, there is no chart for the 86F case.

And it would be difficult to find guinea pigs that can survive 110F, but that's what we will have here in the SW in a few months.

As I understood the charts and explanation, it was the humidity level that was key, rather than temperature. It would have been nice to see that borne out by a chart for the 86F experiment.

 

[Helen]

The source of the study this article was based on:

Funding: This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFB2102100 to Jingyuan Wang) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61572059 and 71531001 to Jingyuan Wang and U1811463 to Weifeng Lv).

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767&mod=article_inline

 

[candrew]

Whether warmer temperatures will slow down this virus is a big maybe right now. And let's hope that the public health response to Covid-19 is not predicated on such a theory.

The 1918 influenza pandemic had a resurgence in August and into the fall. The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much deadlier than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much deadlier form. October 1918 was the deadliest month of the whole pandemic.

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic lasted through August of that year.

 

[teejayevans]

Same here.
Currently, there is a cluster of cases in FLA around Miami and Ft Lauderdale.
We heard that one town Pembroke Pines is effectively on lockdown.

The cases in Florida could be snow birds who caught the virus up north and brought it with them. We should close the Florida border!

 

[NW-Bound]

Whether warmer temperatures will slow down this virus is a big maybe right now. And let's hope that the public health response to Covid-19 is not predicated on such a theory.

The 1918 influenza pandemic had a resurgence in August and into the fall. The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much deadlier than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States, the virus had mutated to a much deadlier form. October 1918 was the deadliest month of the whole pandemic.

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic lasted through August of that year.

Even if temperature has an effect, it would be foolish to presume the virus will be all gone when summer comes. A rebound would catch people off guard, and it starts all over again.

If we are fortunate, the disease spread will be slowed down to allow life to come back to some semblance of the past, provided people still maintain awareness, hygiene standards, and social distancing. Expecting people to do that may be unrealistic though. On the other hand, we cannot stay indoors perpetually, and we need some reprieve from the lockdown so that people can go to work and to produce.

 

[Markola]

I don't believe P-Pines is any different than the rest of Miami/Broward right now. I'm an hour from there, and have friends there not reporting anything different than we have in Boca. Across the SE-Fla area though: schools, parks, beaches, some malls, many retail outlets, closed or closing.

But lockdown implies officials staying do not leave your home - and that hasn't been reported.

ETA: Until the past week, it hasn't been particularly warm in SE-Fla. We've had cooler temps off and on that went well into the early part of March. Of course, by cooler, it means maybe 50 overnight - nothing lower than that since earlier in Feb iirc.

I’ve been talking with relatives in the Tampa Bay area and have been shocked at the state’s lackadaisical attitude, especially given its demographics of many more vulnerable people. Minnesota workplaces sent everyone home last Thursday. Bars, restaurants and schools and nearly everything retail closed by Monday. At that point, Florida still had college kids all over the beaches. I talked to my engineer dad AT WORK today in St. Pete, who said his management told them they could “work from home if they feel uncomfortable”. Cluelessness pervades that it’s not about one’s comfort, because asymptomatic coworkers can be transmitting this virus. Whoever is dragging their feet with slow decision-making in Margaritaville is not serving your fine state well. Good luck with whatever is coming, which will likely be worse than it needed to be.