How long to wait

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That is what is being said.

I am generally not that skeptical, but I'm in the "yeah sounds good, will believe it when I see" camp. So I'm not pinning my hopes on anything panning out on the vaccine front. I do think therapeutics will evolve and incrementally improve, so part of my wait-it-out strategy includes, A) being late to the crowded-hospital-party, and, B) getting better meds If I do end up there.

These are good ideas, in case there will be no effective vaccine. I hope things about vaccine(s) will become more clear in late September or October. I certainly don't want to stay home forever if there is no vaccine.
 
If we find out by the beginning of 2021 that a fairly effective vaccine exists, great. If it takes a few more months for effective distribution, I can wait for that too. Even if a vaccine isn't 100% effective, I'll take what I can get. A 75-80% effective vaccine will give me a lot more confidence about resuming traveling.

If on the other hand we get to the first of next year and all the vaccine candidates that have trials this year are deemed ineffective, and by next year it seems that we are no closer to an effective vaccine than we are this year, I'm not sure exactly what I'll do but I will be very hesitant about traveling (and other group activities). What I think now is, I'll still want to get back to a little bit of traveling but not anywhere near as much as I would have planned; I will try to avoid sightseeing that is likely to be crowded; etc.

+1

From everything I've read and heard recently, there is a good chance an effective vaccine will be available within the next year. IMHO, with so much intensive effort being focused on vaccine development by so many independent companies/groups/teams, the odds are in our favor. Assuming it will take about a year, I feel like I can wait that long before getting on an airplane again. In the meantime, road trips will have to suffice, and that's OK. I would rather accept that inconvenience and minor quality-of-life downgrade than unnecessarily increase my risk of becoming (potentially very) sick with COVID-19.

In the unlikely event that neither an effective vaccine nor substantially improved treatments are widely available by next summer, I'd have to start doing some soul-searching. What things would I be missing so much that the risks of resuming them would be outweighed by the rewards? I love traveling, and miss it, so I'd likely be tempted to do some limited air travel and probably resume staying in hotels and AirBnB's again. Maybe also start dining out at restaurants occasionally, too. I can't see myself not doing those things at all for years and years to come, even if an effective vaccine proves to be elusive. I'd just have to figure out ways to be extra, extra careful and use the most effective, highest quality PPE I could find.

One thing is for sure, though. Until this virus becomes about as innocuous as the seasonal flu—if that ever happens—I can't envision myself ever doing things like grocery shopping or attending a festival or going to a movie theater again without wearing an N95-type mask.
 
Muirwannabe, everyone has to assess his or her own risks and the risks of the ones they love and make their own decision about Covid. You are age 58, I am age 69 so of course my risk is higher than you and I am going to act accordingly. In your original post you asked for the opinions of others on this Forum on this topic. Now you have gotten our opinions, but it seems you don't really want our opinions. Maybe you just wanted us to tell you what you plan to do is OK but we can't do that--you have to make your own decisions. I wish you the best with what you decide.
 
Yea, I’m not in the predicting business about vaccines or meds. My question was simply, how long would you wait for it?

Thanks for the replies so far. Most seem to be saying they’d basically wait forever if necessary. My answer is different. I’m not willing to wait forever. Maybe another 6- 12 months. But at some point I’m gonna say no more. And be willing to carry on living my retirement life with much more risk I guess. That is, if I have a choice. Things still have to be open to enjoy them. And people have to be willing to see you.

I am going to wait until late September or October. Two of the activities that I want to do most are casinos and travels, both are impacted heavily. I have visited a casino in June when it reopened and did several local travels. But long distance travels cannot be determined by my will, they are restricted by the governments. However, by early next year, if there is no vaccine available, I think the governments (of many countries) will realize that they cannot lock people down forever and will relax the restrictions on travel. I hope by early next year, there will be enough people with immunity and the virus becomes weaker and the treatments become more effective, the danger of the virus will be largely mitigated.
 
Muirwannabe, everyone has to assess his or her own risks and the risks of the ones they love and make their own decision about Covid. You are age 58, I am age 69 so of course my risk is higher than you and I am going to act accordingly. In your original post you asked for the opinions of others on this Forum on this topic. Now you have gotten our opinions, but it seems you don't really want our opinions. Maybe you just wanted us to tell you what you plan to do is OK but we can't do that--you have to make your own decisions. I wish you the best with what you decide.


Well, that’s odd. What makes you think I don’t want members opinions? That’s exactly what I requested and have largely received. And I have also stated a couple times in this thread that everyone must make their own decisions.

So your post above is incongruent with what I’ve posted. Anyway, I too wish you the best on what you choose.
 
I'm just worried that the activities we really love (live theater, especially) will either never come back, or will be so watered-down that they won't be worth the trouble of going.
 
If the recreation/entertainment activities enforce social distancing/masks and sanitary actions, had a track record of at least stability, in a area with a low rate of infection, I would be willing to take a chance now. It might take us a little more work to find that out, but we would do it.
 
If the recreation/entertainment activities enforce social distancing/masks and sanitary actions, had a track record of at least stability, in a area with a low rate of infection, I would be willing to take a chance now. It might take us a little more work to find that out, but we would do it.

Yes, I would be more open to them under those conditions.
 
ivinsfan said:
it's a fine line....



Sometimes I feel more paranoia after reading here, we definitely trend to the cautious side.



We tend to be LBYM kind of people. And now the ‘Live’ part is taken quite literally.
 
I will wait another year if I have to do so. IMO, there is to much at stake (billions and billions of dollars) in areas such as travel, sports, entertainment, education, dining etc. to not find a vaccine or easy treatment. And then there is the very human need to be close with friends and family. We will find a way out of this mess. The consequences of living isolated for many years are just not acceptable.
 
I'm just worried that the activities we really love (live theater, especially) will either never come back, or will be so watered-down that they won't be worth the trouble of going.

So am I. I live in a HCOL area, and the cultural performances were what let me justify that expense. So far they're all still canceled. It's not clear what will make it safe for the performers. For the audience, suggestions include spacing out separate parties and everyone wearing masks. I often go alone and enjoy interacting with others there, so being separate from others there is a negative. And I wear masks as required when in a store and walking outside, but wearing one for the entire length of a performance is something I don't think I want to do.

I have actually started thinking about where I would move if theater etc doesn't come back to normal in another year.
 
I would rather spend the rest of my life in my house and yard than 6 feet under or suffer chronic and life long disabilities.

This. Frankly, the disabilities scare me much more than dying. Dying only happens once. Disabilities drag on and on and on....
 
I am am simply optimist and confident that if I get it I will be fine.

There are many fun things in life. Hiking in our national parks, biking around town. You can always grab some carry out sandwich. I can wait much much longer :)

I feel bad for small business owners, seniors so I social distance and wear mask. It is terrible thing for lot of people, but I myself don't worry much about it. It is what it is.
 
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We are betting on a vaccine by the end of the year. In anticipation of that, we booked an 18 day trip to Kauai in early March.
Using miles, it is costing $22 for the two of us to fly Business Class:D
It is costing us far less than that 15 day cruise that was cancelled.
 
Forever if necessary for things like non-RV travel, indoor dining, indoor entertainment. Where it gets muddy is desiring to see family and friends. They are what make life worth living, so it won't be forever.

Looking elsewhere, and with proper safety provisions, we have started taking private golf lessons, are taking outdoor yoga classes, including yoga on SUPs, are kayaking more than ever before, bicycling, doing weekly beach picnics, and have returned to RVing with a vengence. So other than the limitations on seeing our family and friends, life is feeling pretty ok at this point.
 
How long are you willing to wait for Covid to be conquered before returning to doing things you enjoyed pre-Covid? Things like restaurant dining, travel, seeing family, sports, conferences, stadium events, casinos, etc.


Good question and one that has been on our minds.

As someone said, the calculus is not binary. There is no one “right” answer. Even for one individual or couple, there may be multiple “acceptable” answers. Many local maxima / minima.

As someone else said, it’s fundamentally a risk / reward assessment. However, risk and reward are multifaceted.

Risk includes the obvious (death), the less obvious (possibility of lingering sequelae), and the even more subtle (possibility of forgoing the last remaining chances for certain activities, in a limited lifespan; or the cumulative emotional impact of remaining physically “alive and healthy” while forgoing “what makes life worth living,” which is different for everybody).

So to answer the original question - our data point is that we’re considering, with heavy precautions, air travel later in the year. DW has a progressive condition, we know that our remaining time may be limited anyway, and we know our own priorities and precautions and emotional timbre.

And of course, stating our own data point is no pronouncement about what is too much or too little risk for anyone else. Everyone’s circumstances, priorities, etc. are different.
 
I'm just worried that the activities we really love (live theater, especially) will either never come back, or will be so watered-down that they won't be worth the trouble of going.
Us too. Every show in our season tickets has already been cancelled or postponed until December. We’re hoping that will hold, and we’ll be comfortable going back then too. Don’t know. I wonder how long theater, orchestra, ballet can survive with zero revenue? Fortunately many have large corporate and individual benefactors?
 
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I'm just worried that the activities we really love (live theater, especially) will either never come back, or will be so watered-down that they won't be worth the trouble of going.

I think a lot is riding on how effective the future vaccine(s) are.

If a workable one is available in early 2021 (which seems like a safer bet than in 2020), early 2021 still isn't that far off. I don't mind just chillin' out at home doing nothing for another 8 months or so since I've already gone this far :popcorn:.
 
Normalization of risk has begun.
Three months ago it was too dangerous for Mom to visit the doctor, today I received an email saying they want her to do an in person visit next week.
 
Us too. Every show in our season tickets has already been cancelled or postponed until December. We’re hoping that will hold, and we’ll be comfortable going back then too. Don’t know. I wonder how long theater, orchestra, ballet can survive with zero revenue? Fortunately many have large corporate and individual benefactors?
We have season tickets to the Goodspeed Opera House, which stages 3 musicals per year. All the shows for this year were cancelled. We elected to just make a charitable contribution of the subscription price rather than receive a refund. I suspect most of the other subscribers did the same. Where they're really losing money is on the individual ticket sales. We are hopeful that they can hang in there with a skeleton crew for now and come back next year.
 
We are currently booked to fly ATL-DEN in late August to see our oldest son. We understand this is relatively risky. We are flying DL, which is getting the best marks of the big domestics (no middle seats). Last flight out of ATL on the day of travel and first flight out of DEN for the return. We will quarantine upon return. We hope we dodge a bullet, but we feel like the trip needs to be done.

We thought about postponing to the Fall, but I think things will be worse not better.
 
Our local numbers are rising. There's enough information out there to know how to live safely. We had a small wine party in our backyard last night. Everyone distanced. Maybe I'm letting my guard down, but I'll stay away from anything (indoors) aside from home without a mask and constant hand sanitizing. It will be challenging this winter.
 
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We are currently booked to fly ATL-DEN in late August to see our oldest son. We understand this is relatively risky. We are flying DL, which is getting the best marks of the big domestics (no middle seats). Last flight out of ATL on the day of travel and first flight out of DEN for the return. We will quarantine upon return. We hope we dodge a bullet, but we feel like the trip needs to be done.

We thought about postponing to the Fall, but I think things will be worse not better.

That's not a bad drive that time of year...did you have that discussion at all? Everyone has their own comfort level. Just asking, as the fly/drive discussion is picking up a lot of interest.
 
How long are you willing to wait for Covid to be conquered before returning to doing things you enjoyed pre-Covid? Things like restaurant dining, travel, seeing family, sports, conferences, stadium events, casinos, etc.

Having just retired, and all things considered, very glad I did, I've given this a bit of thought.

For me it is somewhat conditional. If there is a hope of a vaccine and/or remedial drugs, I can wait a year or two for one or the other. I don't think the economy can wait that long.

If there were no hope for an effective treatment, I would start today. The rational is that we will all get it eventually and if the dice roll is the same today as it is a year from now, I'll take my chances sooner with the hope of surviving. However, I might try to time it with low IC loading, just in case.
 
We have season tickets to the Goodspeed Opera House, which stages 3 musicals per year. All the shows for this year were cancelled. We elected to just make a charitable contribution of the subscription price rather than receive a refund. I suspect most of the other subscribers did the same. Where they're really losing money is on the individual ticket sales. We are hopeful that they can hang in there with a skeleton crew for now and come back next year.
We'd do that too at those prices. Our season tickets were 20X the price Goodspeed starts at, so we'll donate a portion.
 
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