Not So Fast-Here We Go Again

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According to a German news podcast I follow, there's a second wave in Beijing.:facepalm: No, I don't think we're out of the woods.

I'm in a suburb of Kansas City and the numbers look pretty decent- number of deaths has leveled out and the number of cases is increasing but the one county where I can get test counts is doing 300-400 per day. Rate of positive results was at 6.7% in mid-May; it's now down to 3.8%. Of course, it's likely that the most vulnerable and obvious cases got the early tests.

Having said that- I'm still being somewhat cautious. I still wear a mask indoors in public buildings. Haven't been to a restaurant except 2 trips for takeout when I visited DS and DDIL last week. Haven't had a haircut although I took my 2 granddaughters to Shear Madness- their first trip out in months. We got cake pops at Starbucks but enjoyed them in the car after an application of hand sanitizer. My church is open for services but is taking all the proper precautions, including no wine at communion and no congregational singing. Gym is finally open but I'm going to stick with long bike rides for now.

My attitude is that I need to apply my own brain to what the experts are saying- if I get this disease or (heaven forbid) pass it on, I'm the one who has to live with the consequences.
 
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I thought this chart from ritholtz.com summarized it nicely :)

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Rianne said:
Thanks, Audrey very informative. The article is updated and the graphs give a telling picture of the country. Maybe I'll move to northern Wyoming. I hear it's beautiful.
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I thought the Bighorn Mountain area near Sheridan was quite lovely.
 
Golden sunsets said:
I live in a small northeastern state that has opened by county depending on the degree of infections. My county will be the last to open fully as it is the most populous and has had the greatest infection rate. I find though that nearly everyone I see in my county is compliant with regard to distancing and face masks. Nearly everyone seems to take this seriously.

In the rest of the state(mostly rural), where the infections have been lower and where the phased openings are ahead of our county, there seems to be less tolerance for the phased in rules. Lots of ignoring of the rules,and resulting enforcement actions revoking liquor and food licenses followed by lawsuits against the governor.

Unfortunately I see a direct correlation between hostility against the restrictions and politics.

As a further observation, DH and I have determined that the drive to reopen fully is a force that few local and state administration's will be able to stop regardless of how intense the infection rate reversal is, and it will be up to us to protect ourselves by continuing our social distancing and self isolation until there is a proven safe vaccine.
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BeachOrCity said:
I thought this chart from ritholtz.com summarized it nicely :)

View attachment 35315
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That second chart looks pretty much like what has happened here in NC.
By the way, I love Leave it to Beaver! I wish I could get reruns somewhere.
 
Rianne said:
Thanks, Audrey very informative. The article is updated and the graphs give a telling picture of the country. Maybe I'll move to northern Wyoming. I hear it's beautiful.
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That page is updated every day. It’s an excellent view of the state of the virus in the US including history.
 
Everyone needs to just calm down. Larry Kudlow recently reported that there is no second wave and will probably not see one. :cool:
 
Nationwide new cases have been fairly flat for a month while deaths continue to drop at a moderate rate. I'm surmising the new cases today are in an average lower age group than before & thus the odds of passing are lower. We're not sending people with the virus to nursing homes anymore - I don't think. And those of higher age are being more cautious than the overall population.
 
gerntz said:
Nationwide new cases have been fairly flat for a month while deaths continue to drop at a moderate rate. I'm surmising the new cases today are in an average lower age group than before & thus the odds of passing are lower. We're not sending people with the virus to nursing homes anymore - I don't think. And those of higher age are being more cautious than the overall population.
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I believe the overall death rates are dropping for several reasons - a lot more testing of course, but also better care, no longer stressed hospitals in hot spots, more immediate isolation of those likely infected, better protections for those vulnerable.

But I don’t think the averaged national statistics are particularly useful. I think it’s far more useful to look at states numbers, and clearly there are numerous states with increasing infections, increasing hospitalizations, higher percentages testing positive. These are on their way to major outbreaks again. There is nothing really to stop it now other than individual behavior.
 
gerntz said:
Nationwide new cases have been fairly flat for a month while deaths continue to drop at a moderate rate. I'm surmising the new cases today are in an average lower age group than before & thus the odds of passing are lower. We're not sending people with the virus to nursing homes anymore - I don't think. And those of higher age are being more cautious than the overall population.
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And let's not forget that we are testing many more people now than we were before...more testing leads to more confirmed cases.
 
cbo111 said:
Everyone needs to just calm down. Larry Kudlow recently reported that there is no second wave and will probably not see one. :cool:
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Plus originally stating it is all under control. He should stick to being an economic advisor (just barely).
 
JustCurious said:
And let's not forget that we are testing many more people now than we were before...more testing leads to more confirmed cases.
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Yes, this is of course true. But the trends about the individual states are true also when taking this effect into account, and when looking at one of the best measures, which is the number of hospitalizations in those states that provide those data. Another measure that is better than mere positive tests is the percentage of positives among those tested, which in the states in question is also usually going up.
 
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Gumby said:
I thought the Bighorn Mountain area near Sheridan was quite lovely.
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As an aside, I recommend the Joe Pickett book series by CJ Box. I’ve really enjoyed it. The stories are good fun, but it’s probably his descriptions of the Wyoming wilderness, and in particular the Bighorn area that really draws me in.

I’ve never been. But very much intend to go someday.
 
audreyh1 said:
But I don’t think the averaged national statistics are particularly useful. I think it’s far more useful to look at states numbers, and clearly there are numerous states with increasing infections, increasing hospitalizations, higher percentages testing positive. These are on their way to major outbreaks again. There is nothing really to stop it now other than individual behavior.
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A major outbreak (increasing cases, hospitalizations, and more positive tests) appears to be underway here. Over the past week cases are up by a third, hospitalizations have doubled, and the percentage of tests returning positive have increased from 3-4% to 10-11%. The resulting numbers are significantly worse than the first "wave" - which never actually receded.
 
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Record number of new cases in FLA today. Lots of increases % wise in rural counties. hmm.
 
REWahoo said:
A major outbreak (increasing cases, hospitalizations, and more positive tests) appears to be underway here. Over the past week cases are up by a third, hospitalizations have doubled, and the percentage of tests returning positive have increased from 3-4% to 10-11%. The resulting numbers are significantly worse than the first "wave" - which never actually receded.
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Right - clearly, looking at the NY Times graphs, TX is still in its first wave which was simply slowed by the shutdowns, but dropped very little a couple of times before taking right off again to new highs. And now climbing even faster.
 
JustCurious said:
And let's not forget that we are testing many more people now than we were before...more testing leads to more confirmed cases.
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Hence, we need to look at hospitalization numbers which have increased for some States. We are not out of the wood, far from it. People need to take this into their own hands and do the smart thing. Too many of us are totally ignoring precautions, CDC guidelines, etc.. I go by a popular fruit stand every day and the employees are not wearing masks. It will be a matter of time before they get infected. My county has the most infections in the Bay Area and it is not decreasing.
 
We had better get this under control before flu season plugs up the hospitals even without Covid.
 
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