Updates on COVID 19

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I think you are ignoring the quite substantial morbidity from this disease. I think that is the much bigger issue and we do not really understand it yet

While all those deaths are bad enough, don't overlook the countless (hundreds of?) thousands who survive but suffer afterward as Covid "long haulers."

I am not ignoring the unknown long term effects, I said "we have a very serious covid problem." That doesn't mean just for today, and it doesn't mean just for the long haulers.

My point is that too much of today's news is slanted to get us excited that either covid isn't serious (yes I actually know people who think that way), or that we're all bound to soon get the disease and die (and I know people who think that way also).

As previously said, the truth lies somewhere toward the middle.
 
As previously said, the truth lies somewhere toward the middle.

Of course and as almost always. Compare the view of someone that living in Vermont versus someone living in Puerto Rico.

The Sturgis Rally event is interesting. I don't think any spread will be from the locals, it will be from the bikers hanging out with each other. If there are different strains of the virus, they will all get mixed up there!!
 
Yes, that's the creepiest part of the whole thing. I love statistics, but when most people that have had COVID-19 say how bad it is, and then we factor in the unknown future hidden virus aspects, I'm going with the anecdotal 'I don't wish this on anyone' comments from people that have had it.

That said, my state's (NM) test positivity rate was at 3.5% yesterday, so I felt OK about going to the PCP yesterday to have wayward hearing aid domes removed from my ears. First visit outside (except to the brewery) for quite a while.

That’s a great positivity rate and indicates that New Mexico, unlike the hot spot states, has adequate testing going on. Hopefully you are getting test results back quickly too, and so contact tracing is working well and you can maintain containment. I know that generally New Mexico is a pretty poor state, so it’s great that you are doing so well. You are sandwiched between two states that are having a really tough time of it!
 
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That’s a great positivity rate and indicates that New Mexico, unlike the hot spot states, has adequate testing going on. Hopefully you are getting test results back quickly too, and so contact tracing is working well and you can maintain containment. I know that generally New Mexico is a pretty poor state, so it’s great that you are doing so well. You are sandwiched between two states that are having a really tough time of it!

tracing in NM is a little behind where the health folks want it to be. But considering our neighboring states, we are OK with that.
 

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Texas deaths have been accumulating quickly. It’s been averaging 200 per day for a while. I predict TX is going to join CA and cross the 10,000 mark before too long.

Oh, and TX became the 3rd state to cross the 500,000 cases mark.
 
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sure, but they are also about 36% of the population, with about 120m people in those 5 states.

Right. And it fits with Gearhead's point. The news emphasizes pure numbers for click and eyeball impact. They rarely get into the deeper story.
 
Michael Levitt, Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, predicts that the US will reach herd immunity level by the end of the month.
 
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Michael Levitt, Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, predicts that the US will reach herd immunity level by the end of the month.

Michael Levitt told us in March that the pandemic was peaking in the US and most other countries around the world, including Iran, and was “winding down” (his choice of words).

He is a very bright guy but does not have expertise or credentials in epidemiology.
 
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Fantastic. So the news that CA case data is buggy has been out for a while. Now the state's top public health official is falling on her sword over this. I presume that means we will hear of massive undercounting and that the gubnor has been making decisions based on fluff.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...wake-of-questions-about-coronavirus-test-data

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s director of the California Department of Public Health resigned on Sunday, an abrupt departure of a key advisor in the state’s coronavirus battle just days after the discovery of a computer system failure that resulted in the undercounting of COVID-19 cases.
Dr. Sonia Angell, who held the position for less than a year, announced her resignation in an email sent to department staff that was released by the California Health and Human Services Agency.
 
Fantastic. So the news that CA case data is buggy has been out for a while. Now the state's top public health official is falling on her sword over this. I presume that means we will hear of massive undercounting and that the gubnor has been making decisions based on fluff.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...wake-of-questions-about-coronavirus-test-data

From today's update:
Note: The issue with the state’s electronic laboratory reporting system has been addressed and the system is now performing as expected. The entire backlog has been completely eliminated, and new cases attributed to the backlog will be reported over the next few days.

There were 300K records in the backlog and the positivity rate has been under 8% for quite a while, so at most there should be 24K new cases to add back. They've already said that some of those records are not Covid related because this system is used for all reportable illnesses, and some are duplicates, so hopefully the actual number is much less.
 
From today's update:


There were 300K records in the backlog and the positivity rate has been under 8% for quite a while, so at most there should be 24K new cases to add back. They've already said that some of those records are not Covid related because this system is used for all reportable illnesses, and some are duplicates, so hopefully the actual number is much less.

We will find out for real if the case numbers shoot up in the next few weeks.
 
Our county in GA is not looking too good. It has a small population, of just under 13,000 and one small city. The rest is rural - no other towns. GA DPH site shows a map of counties by cases per 100K occurring in the last 14 days, and our county is one of very few dark brown, i.e. worst. 54% of the county cases occurred in the last 14 days. Browsing the map and only looking at the handful of dark brown counties, that seems to be the highest recent increase rate As the remainder are ~1/3 or less.

Other than Walmart with their strict prevention measures, few other places seem to be observing precautions. I think people here feel safe, and simply don’t recognize their risk as many have lived here all their lives and know almost everybody. I think people were careful at first, especially the older ones, but eventually decided they were safe enough.

I notice the county next to us, where DF was in assisted living, and has a similar size, population and one major small city, is doing much better. It hasn’t seen a recent jump in cases, and is way better overall even though it started out much worse in March. I notice more people taking precautions there.

There is a small state university in our county city, but in person classes have not started yet, and students returning to campus is too recent to account for the recent spike in cases IMO. Also, unless a student is a resident of our county they won’t show up in the county case numbers. The university has been under strict mask wearing and social distancing rules since July 15.
 
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Michael Levitt told us in March that the pandemic was peaking in the US and most other countries around the world, including Iran, and was “winding down” (his choice of words).

He is a very bright guy but does not have expertise or credentials in epidemiology.

I opine that the sound you hear from Michael Levitt is an ax grinding.....
 
Reposted from a different thread:
Texas went from an average of 36k tests a week to 14k tests this past Saturday.

Positivity rate jumped up to 20% on fewer tests.

So hope that infections are declining because they're declining, not because they're drastically cutting back testing.

Wow, that’s really bad. This article indicates that
In the week ending Aug. 8, an average 36,255 coronavirus tests were administered in Texas each day — a drop of about 42% from two weeks earlier, when the average number of daily tests was 62,516.

At the same time, the percentage of tests yielding positive results has climbed, up to 20% on average in the week ending Aug. 8. Two weeks earlier, the average positivity rate was around 14%.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/10/coronavirus-testing-texas/

It’s a bit hard to understand why, but the article reports:
The decline in tests may be driven in at least some places by a drop in demand. In Austin, health officials say fewer people are seeking tests through the city’s online portal and at local events. Local officials had been forced in late June to limit testing only to people who were showing symptoms of the coronavirus. Now, they are opening it back up to asymptomatic people.

I also wonder about the role of antigen tests. Texas does not count positive antigen test results in the state cases. But a drop of 40% in two weeks is not likely explained by a sudden ramp up switch to antigen tests instead. There are still far fewer antigen tests conducted than PCR tests in TX - like maybe ~5%.
 
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This is very frustrating. I guess due to the crazy long turn-around times, a lot of people have given up on tests. In Texas, positivity rate got down below 12% by the end of July, but has now doubled to 24%. Why? Because the number of daily tests has dropped in half over the past two weeks. So on the surface it appears that daily cases are coming down, but what is actually happening is that we are no longer doing enough tests to detect them. This is very discouraging.
Accuracy of U.S. coronavirus data thrown into question as decline in testing skews drop in new cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/acc...cline-in-testing-skews-drop-in-new-cases.html
 
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That article unfairly threw NC into the mix. NC's positivity rate is going down, even though tests are going down. I don't know what's going on in TX, but we are not in the same boat. The experts all along have said positivity rates are most important. TX clearly has an issue.

That said, the turn-around time in the south is still ridiculous. Also, Labcorp and the state of NC had issues in data collection which they claim are fixed as of today. NC is opening more testing sites in rural areas, an area they feel is under-served. Since the state and Labcorp fixed the data collection problem, test numbers are up again, at least for today.
 
Many states are in different stages and trajectories. Glad NC’s positivity rate is going down - that’s a very good sign.
 
Many states are in different stages and trajectories. Glad NC’s positivity rate is going down - that’s a very good sign.

Yes, I'm glad to read this, for all North Carolinians. The forum has quite a few NC residents and it's nice to know this aspect is looking better there.
 
Yesterday Florida and Georgia reported highest single-day death tolls since start of coronavirus pandemic. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/11/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...-georgia-see-record-one-day-deaths-2020-08-12

Today Texas reported a whopper well over 300 fatalities, the 4th highest number.

It’s not just Florida, Georgia and Texas either:
The US reported the highest single-day COVID-19 death toll since mid-May https://www.businessinsider.com/us-reports-highest-single-day-covid-death-toll-mid-may-2020-8

U.S. reports highest number of covid-19 deaths in one day since mid-May
On Wednesday, the country reported its highest number of deaths in a single day since mid-May, at nearly 1,500. The country has now seen its seven-day average of newly reported deaths remain above 1,000 for 17 consecutive days.

Georgia reported 105 deaths Wednesday, marking its second triple-digit day in a row. North Carolina reported an additional 45 deaths Wednesday, tying its highest daily number, from July 29. Texas reported 324 additional deaths from the disease.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...afe146-dcae-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html
 
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Yes, I'm glad to read this, for all North Carolinians. The forum has quite a few NC residents and it's nice to know this aspect is looking better there.
We're not out of the woods. If people stupid it up, we can become a surge state fast fast. So, we have to keep our guard up.

I'm not sure why that news article had a paragraph that grouped us with TX and FL. We had an increase, for sure, but we never have matched their trajectories. It is one of my frustrations with news because, frankly, it appears political (we're a "purple" state).

Our state health director had a comprehensive 1/2 hr interview last night. She's glad we are making progress. However, the big thing right now is the start of schools and university programs. The governor extended the pause for bars and gym openings partly to allow us to see the effect of school openings. Even though I lean towards "open everything," I still support this closure and our governor. Too much stupid at bars.

They are currently pressing to do a LOT of testing at the universities. Let's see how that goes. So far, so good. 4 positive out of 3000 at Duke. But, we've just begun. If they stay on top of it, contract tracing in that community might actually work.

One more thing she said about testing: the wait time has dropped back to 2 to 3 days from the 7 to 9 we were experiencing over the last few weeks. Tests were useless for a while there.
 
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Today Texas reported a whopper well over 300 fatalities, the 4th highest number.

It’s not just Florida, Georgia and Texas either:
The US reported the highest single-day COVID-19 death toll since mid-May https://www.businessinsider.com/us-reports-highest-single-day-covid-death-toll-mid-may-2020-8

400 people in one day! My state would have to up its deaths over 10x to equal Texas on a per-capita basis. The top five states in current deaths per day are truly in a class by themselves. :(

They gotta get a handle on this.
 
Today Texas reported a whopper well over 300 fatalities, the 4th highest number.

I once thought the daily death count was a good indicator of current virus activity but since date of death information may be two or more month old, I no longer see how it is of any real use in helping us understand what is happening NOW.

Example: Bexar County (San Antonio) reported 26 deaths yesterday, one of the highest single day totals ever. However, many of those deaths have been "under investigation" dating back as far as early June, rendering the info meaningless as a measure of current Covid 19 activity.

The only statistic I monitor is Covid 19 hospitalizations.
 
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