Updates on COVID 19

[morriss003]

I've been watching since late March. Very interesting to see the changing differences between Alaska, Hawaii, Wyoming, and Montana.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

I see from worldometers that Georgia has the dubious distinction of passing New Jersey and moving into 5th place total covid infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Total infections, by itself, means virtually nothing. You need to know the percentage of the population tested to produce the results, and the number of positives per 100,000 people.

Belgium, in absolute terms, has a fairly low number of Covid deaths. But on a per capita basis, it's the deadliest country in the world.
The USA has the highest number of total cases, but is far from the highest deaths per capita.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

The USA has the highest number of total cases, but is far from the highest deaths per capita.

I don't know what your definition of "far from" is, but it isn't the same as mine. We are about 8th in the world in deaths per capita. Yes, Belgium has a much worse death rate per capita, but we are not so far from the others in the top 8, and there are a couple hundred countries reporting lower deaths per capita than the US.

 

[Montecfo]

I don't know what your definition of "far from" is, but it isn't the same as mine. We are about 8th in the world in deaths per capita. Yes, Belgium has a much worse death rate per capita, but we are not so far from the others in the top 8, and there are a couple hundred countries reporting lower deaths per capita than the US.

Average age of the country plays a large role in deaths as does the number of cases it has had.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Average age of the country plays a large role in deaths as does the number of cases it has had.

Yes, the US has a relatively young population compared to most of the developed world. Most of the countries with a higher per-capita death rate have an older population.

 

[audreyh1]

Ohio Governor DeWine tested positive for Covid-19. He was tested before a planned meeting with the President. Other politicians have found themselves to be infected because they had to be tested before being with Trump. DeWine is the second state governor to test positive.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ike-dewine-tests-positive-for-the-coronavirus

Wow - so that rapid test was a false positive! Two PCR tests from the same day came back negative.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine tested positive, then negative for COVID. 7 questions you might have about testing. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...estions-covid-19-testing-answered/3317060001/

 

[ivinsfan]

Wow - so that rapid test was a false positive! Two PCR tests from the same day came back negative.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine tested positive, then negative for COVID. 7 questions you might have about testing. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...estions-covid-19-testing-answered/3317060001/

These rapid tests appear to have more false positives then the other tests so hopefully that can be improved. Did you see the NFL announced to the world Matt Stafford was COVID positive on a false positive? His wife was PO'd it got broadcast to the general public.

 

[audreyh1]

These rapid tests appear to have more false positives then the other tests so hopefully that can be improved. Did you see the NFL announced to the world Matt Stafford was COVID positive on a false positive? His wife was PO'd it got broadcast to the general public.

Well, they had to change their testing procedure.

According to a memo sent to all club presidents, general managers and head coaches from NFL chief medical officer Allen Sills, players who test positive and are asymptomatic are to undergo two confirmatory nasal tests the following day.

Obviously they need to change their PR procedure too!

But it’s probably just as well false positives from rapid tests are getting some publicity.

 

[ivinsfan]

Well, they had to change their testing procedure.

That policy there tells you false positives are an issue with the rapid testing. I don't want to wonder if the rapid test gives false negatives...

 

[audreyh1]

That policy there tells you false positives are an issue with the rapid testing. I don't want to wonder if the rapid test gives false negatives...

False negatives are handled by frequent testing. I guess that’s the best that can be done at the moment.

 

[brewer12345]

False negatives are handled by frequent testing. I guess that’s the best that can be done at the moment.

My hunting buddy has been hosting his disabled mother in law for a two week quarantine period before she can move into a new nursing home. Thursday she ended up in the hospital with pneumonia, but tested negative for the Rona. Hospital told them the test is 30 percent false negative, so they will have a second test with results tomorrow night. If the second test has the same false negative numbers, a second negative means she still could have almost a 1 in 10 chance of being positive if she is infected even though she tested negative twice.

 

[cathy63]

Yes, the US has a relatively young population compared to most of the developed world. Most of the countries with a higher per-capita death rate have an older population.

I think it's interesting to look at the U.S. states by median age as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age

California and Texas are lowering the U.S. median age by quite a lot. Our "oldest" states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia and Florida, are in the same age range as the major European countries (except Germany, which is an outlier on the upper end when compared to both the rest of Europe and the U.S.).

Overall, the U.S. death rate by state doesn't correspond very well to the age of the population. Some places with younger populations, like Louisiana and D.C. have suffered a lot of deaths, while those with older populations like Montana, Maine and Vermont are at the bottom of the list. It seems like other factors have as much influence as age -- population density, lack of large cities, getting hit later rather than earlier, etc.

 

[ivinsfan]

My hunting buddy has been hosting his disabled mother in law for a two week quarantine period before she can move into a new nursing home. Thursday she ended up in the hospital with pneumonia, but tested negative for the Rona. Hospital told them the test is 30 percent false negative, so they will have a second test with results tomorrow night. If the second test has the same false negative numbers, a second negative means she still could have almost a 1 in 10 chance of being positive if she is infected even though she tested negative twice.

30% false negative that's unknowable at this point...it looks like you can get a negative test when you are tested too early in the virus stage. However if the MIL already had pneumonia it would imply the virus was pretty well established in her system. So much we don't know about it.

 

[brewer12345]

30% false negative that's unknowable at this point...it looks like you can get a negative test when you are tested too early in the virus stage. However if the MIL already had pneumonia it would imply the virus was pretty well established in her system. So much we don't know about it.

Correct. MIL has a lengthy history of health problems includung pneumonia, so what they saw on her lung x ray could be scarring from a past bout of it. The fact that her oxygen was down to 80% also doesn't necessarily mean anything because she is a flatlander newly moved to a high elevation area and has other comorbidities.

 

[harllee]

It's officially hit home. I just found out that a great uncle died 2 weeks ago from Covid at age 78 in Arizona. Other than age, he was healthy. Prior to this I was 2 or 3 degrees separated from covid deaths.... I didn't know anyone personally.

Up till now I had known several people who had been sick, but survived... but hadn't known anyone who had died of Covid.

rodi, so sorry about your uncle. I know 2 people who have died from Covid but both have been friends, not relatives. To my knowledge no one I am related to has died from Covid yet--but since I have many older people in my family (including my mother) I am afraid it is just a matter of time...

 

[6miths]

I don't know what your definition of "far from" is, but it isn't the same as mine. We are about 8th in the world in deaths per capita. Yes, Belgium has a much worse death rate per capita, but we are not so far from the others in the top 8, and there are a couple hundred countries reporting lower deaths per capita than the US.

Average age of the country plays a large role in deaths as does the number of cases it has had.

What also plays a role is how deaths are classified. Belguim was very liberal in its classifying deaths as COVID related and thus looked much worse compared to its neighbours. Although interestingly, perhaps more close to the reality in the early stages of the first wave. When the numbers are eventually crunched and 'excess death' numbers are looked at (including reduced deaths due to some other causes) it may well be that Belgium's numbers came closest to the truth.

 

[CaliKid]

Why are people so obsessed with raw numbers? That means nothing. Is it shocking that California has the most cases? No, it's the biggest state. So to me if you have to compare population size to the raw number list. So GA is 8th most populous state but 5th most infected. That's not good. Arizona is 14th most populous but 8th most infected. That's not good. Or look at a list of percentage of population that are infected. Also, need to look at percentages of testing being done. Just looking at raw numbers is the most worthless exercise in my opinion.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

^^^
Agree.
A lot of the "news" is just clickbait.

We do have a very serious Covid problem, but all of the press hysteria makes it harder to tell what's really happening.
One group wants us to believe it's just the flu, the other group wants us to believe it's the end of the world. The truth is somewhere in between.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
If you scroll down to the top of "how is my state doing" and wait for that part to load, you'll see that the total cases and positivity rate for the entire USA is actually improving.

300,000 deaths that we can easily reach this year equals a lot of pain and suffering and lives cut short.
But it also equates to less than 1/10 of 1% of our population.
Our primary mission is to avoid being part of that 300k. For most of us, doing that will be inconvenient but doable.

 

[Aerides]

I think most all of us here are well informed and know quite well to factor in a locations population numbers to weigh the case counts. 10000 new cases per day in FL is bad, if we were Wyoming we'd have 95% of the state gone through it by now.

No one here strikes me as obsessed with numbers, we are all parsing them for our local impacts.

I think most of us are also smart enough not to get caught up in what any one or three media sources think we should think.

So let's move past that - it only leads to bacon.

 

[Sunset]

......
300,000 deaths that we can easily reach this year equals a lot of pain and suffering and lives cut short.
But it also equates to less than 1/10 of 1% of our population.
Our primary mission is to avoid being part of that 300k. For most of us, doing that will be inconvenient but doable.

That is an amazing number, and not the end of the story, nothing magical about 2021, so it will simply continue. . . . . . until a solution is possibly found.

 

[brewer12345]

^^^
Agree.
A lot of the "news" is just clickbait.

We do have a very serious Covid problem, but all of the press hysteria makes it harder to tell what's really happening.
One group wants us to believe it's just the flu, the other group wants us to believe it's the end of the world. The truth is somewhere in between.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
If you scroll down to the top of "how is my state doing" and wait for that part to load, you'll see that the total cases and positivity rate for the entire USA is actually improving.

300,000 deaths that we can easily reach this year equals a lot of pain and suffering and lives cut short.
But it also equates to less than 1/10 of 1% of our population.
Our primary mission is to avoid being part of that 300k. For most of us, doing that will be inconvenient but doable.

I think you are ignoring the quite substantial morbidity from this disease. I think that is the much bigger issue and we do not really understand it yet

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

... 300,000 deaths that we can easily reach this year equals a lot of pain and suffering and lives cut short.
But it also equates to less than 1/10 of 1% of our population.
Our primary mission is to avoid being part of that 300k. For most of us, doing that will be inconvenient but doable.

While all those deaths are bad enough, don't overlook the countless (hundreds of?) thousands who survive but suffer afterward as Covid "long haulers."

 

[ivinsfan]

I think most all of us here are well informed and know quite well to factor in a locations population numbers to weigh the case counts. 10000 new cases per day in FL is bad, if we were Wyoming we'd have 95% of the state gone through it by now.

No one here strikes me as obsessed with numbers, we are all parsing them for our local impacts.

I think most of us are also smart enough not to get caught up in what any one or three media sources think we should think.

So let's move past that - it only leads to bacon.

This kind of reminds me of when someone gets lung cancer. It doesn't take long for someone to ask "do they/did they smoke". People aren't mean they are just looking for a way to rationalize bad things so that they can feel "this won't happen to me"..

We all want to think COVID spreads from reckless/bad behavior so that we feel somehow not at risk.

 

[Montecfo]

I think it's interesting to look at the U.S. states by median age as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age

California and Texas are lowering the U.S. median age by quite a lot. Our "oldest" states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia and Florida, are in the same age range as the major European countries (except Germany, which is an outlier on the upper end when compared to both the rest of Europe and the U.S.).

Overall, the U.S. death rate by state doesn't correspond very well to the age of the population. Some places with younger populations, like Louisiana and D.C. have suffered a lot of deaths, while those with older populations like Montana, Maine and Vermont are at the bottom of the list. It seems like other factors have as much influence as age -- population density, lack of large cities, getting hit later rather than earlier, etc.

A lot of factors come into play. But if you look at those who are actually infected, death rates are directly related to age.

If states with older older populations can protect those most at risk, results will be better than those like NY, New Jersey, etc who exposed older populations to virus risk. States with younger populations may have high death rates for similar reasons.

So age of a population by itself is just the beginning of the analysis.

 

[timo2]

While all those deaths are bad enough, don't overlook the countless (hundreds of?) thousands who survive but suffer afterward as Covid "long haulers."

Yes, that's the creepiest part of the whole thing. I love statistics, but when most people that have had COVID-19 say how bad it is, and then we factor in the unknown future hidden virus aspects, I'm going with the anecdotal 'I don't wish this on anyone' comments from people that have had it.

That said, my state's (NM) test positivity rate was at 3.5% yesterday, so I felt OK about going to the PCP yesterday to have wayward hearing aid domes removed from my ears. First visit outside (except to the brewery) for quite a while.