Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[JoeWras]

ivinsfan is correct about car deaths. I retract my postulating statement.

lower miles <does not equal> lower fatalities. Turns out NC's deaths are up too despite known lower miles. Authorities postulated that the wide open roads lead to reckless behavior. Who knows?

The point is the data is complicated. Behavior is complicated.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

One thing that's pretty easy to compute is 273,000 deaths/13.9 million positives = about 2% mortality. That's close to the 2.5% worldwide mortality rate from the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, according to the NiH. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/#:~:text=An%20estimated%20one%20third%20of,pandemics%20(3%2C4).

 

[Car-Guy]

One thing that's pretty easy to compute is 273,000 deaths/13.9 million positives = about 2% mortality.

Yes, it's easy enough to compute the reported numbers but is that the real story? Try running the numbers of what happens to that mortality percentage if you add in the CDC estimates of asymptomatic/mild or just other unreported cases of the illness.... Of course there is probably some under reporting of covid related deaths too but I suspect that's a much smaller number.


I know some folks here are tired of hearing these numbers sliced and diced yet again, but clearly there is still some interest by a few.

 

[MichaelB]

OK, but everyone can draw their own conclusions, as the CDC's 269K Covid coded deaths could also be misleading and there is no way to assure otherwise.

We are all entitled to our opinions, but at least here on ER Forum we choose to present and discuss views based on credible sources and data that has been peer reviewed, subject to professional scrutiny or in some other way meets the test of legitimacy.

The Johns Hopkins report is not credible, as previously pointed out was withdrawn, and doesn’t meet forum standards or deserve our consideration.

A new COVID wave of infections is surging and hospitalizations have surpassed their previous highs. Let’s talk about measures, impacts to us, new developments, vaccines, and staying healthy.

 

[USGrant1962]

Going to keep beating this dead horse...I already mentioned your point about car deaths is misleading as well.

It's like the Titanic is sinking and you want to know exactly how big that iceberg was...

2/3 of the people on the Titanic died. Not "like".

 

[Gumby]

Going to keep beating this dead horse...I already mentioned your point about car deaths is misleading as well.

It's like the Titanic is sinking and you want to know exactly how big that iceberg was...

+1 And the number of lifeboats depends on your personal behavior. We know what to do to be safe. Everything else is noise.

That's not the reasoning, as far as I can see. Rather, one begins with desired result and "reasons" backward. That is, first I decide that I don't want to wear a mask or socially distance or otherwise restrict my activities at all. Then, I go looking for a reason why I can do what I want. I have two possible roads to get there. First is denial -- COVID doesn't exist, and if it does it's not that bad, deaths are overstated, those old people were going to die anyway. Second is fatalism -- there's nothing we can do, masks and social restrictions don't work, everybody is just going to have to get it. Either way, I don't have to wear a mask and I can go to the bar. Yippee!

 

[Chuckanut]

ivinsfan is correct about car deaths. I retract my postulating statement.

lower miles <does not equal> lower fatalities. Turns out NC's deaths are up too despite known lower miles. Authorities postulated that the wide open roads lead to reckless behavior. Who knows?

The point is the data is complicated. Behavior is complicated.

The Law of Unanticipated Consequences strikes again!

Between the above law and the Dunning-Kruger Effect there is plenty of opportunity for mortals on all sides of an issue to mess up. And we do.

 

[W2R]

OK, but everyone can draw their own conclusions, as the CDC's 269K Covid coded deaths could also be misleading and there is no way to assure otherwise.

+1 Who knows? I sure don't. Seems like every day something is contradicted or reversed and it's hard to know what to believe, one way or the other.

[...]Either way, I don't have to wear a mask and I can go to the bar. Yippee!

Oh I LIKE that! I wanna join that club, sign me up. I'm ready to party. YEE-HAH! WAHOO! PARTY ON!

(Getting back to reality, I utterly detest/despise/hate wearing a mask!! I always do so as mandated, but as soon as TPTB tell us we may stop wearing masks I'll be the first to stop).

 

[eytonxav]

Going to keep beating this dead horse...I already mentioned your point about car deaths is misleading as well.

It's like the Titanic is sinking and you want to know exactly how big that iceberg was...

Maybe your memory is better than mine, but I do not recall making a post here about car deaths. Please point out that post or correct your accusation.

 

[braumeister]

Mod Note:
Enough with the claims, counterclaims, assertions, and refutations.

Please read post #1904 above and stop the nonsense.

 

[Alan]

This thread has been closed after numerous posts containing suspect data. Please remember the rules of the road in this section of the forum:

All Community Rules will be strictly enforced in this forum. Posts in violation of the rules may be deleted without notification based on the judgment of the moderators. In addition, posts that exhibit fear-mongering or other anti-social behavior may result in the author’s posting privileges being restricted.

There has been a lot of very useful information and perspective shared here on this topic, but unfortunately also a good bit that does not meet our standards. Please respect your fellow members by thinking through this before posting:

- Is it true?
- Is it helpful?
- Is it kind?

Now go wash your hands!