Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[Car-Guy]

CDC thinks 8x

That would be 1/3 of the population here in the US.

Really? Seems pretty high to me....

 

[audreyh1]

That would be 1/3 of the population here in the US.

Really? Seems pretty high to me....

Agreed. Based on surveys, including blood test surveys, 8x is what they thought at the end of September.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...vid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

 

[Car-Guy]

Agreed. Based on surveys, including blood test surveys, 8x is what they thought at the end of September.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...vid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

This is really interesting... Thanks for that...

Then it makes me wonder (of course ) if the "number of deaths" that are reported as Covid related is accurate.... I would think "that number" would be reasonably accurate although I understand the actual cause of death/certificate often lags a good bit.

 

[Aerides]

Here's an interesting piece on from the covid tracking teams on what to expect for the post-thanksgiving data (tl;dr it's gonna be wobbly for a week or so) given we know that a lot of states test less on holidays/weeknds, as well as delay reporting through county and state sites:

https://covidtracking.com/blog/daily-covid-19-data-is-about-to-get-weird

On average, without holidays, death data reporting has about a 1 week lag, varying by state.
The impacts to all key metrics are expected to be wonky for several days, which might cause some folks to mistakenly think the infection rate is going down when it's just backlogs of data.

 

[Telly]

In Texas, the state rule now is if there are 7 consecutive days where hospitals in a defined area have greater than 15% beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, a level of further restrictions kicks in. In "North Texas" defined as 19 counties for this purpose, we just completed day 4 over 15%. If the next 3 days remain over, then restaurants, stores drop from 75% max occupancy down to 50% max, bars close, elective surgeries postponed. Those who care are expecting it to kick in. Some other areas of the state are already in this phase.

 

[audreyh1]

In Texas, the state rule now is if there are 7 consecutive days where hospitals in a defined area have greater than 15% beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, a level of further restrictions kicks in. In "North Texas" defined as 19 counties for this purpose, we just completed day 4 over 15%. If the next 3 days remain over, then restaurants, stores drop from 75% max occupancy down to 50% max, bars close, elective surgeries postponed. Those who care are expecting it to kick in. Some other areas of the state are already in this phase.

I knew they had opened up further to these limits after the summer surge passed. But I didn’t realize that a criteria had been put in place for returning to the summer restrictions. Thanks.

I wonder if those areas correspond to the established hospital regions.

Yes, it corresponds to hospital trauma regions. Here is the executive order: https://www.dshs.texas.gov/ga32/
And the regions (PDF): https://www.dshs.texas.gov/emstraumasystems/Trauma/pdf/FrontierRuralUrbanbyRAC.pdf
https://www.dshs.texas.gov/emstraumasystems/etrarac.shtm

 

[Old Microbiologist]

Some big misconceptions seem to be pervasive. First, the CDC is a poor collector of data and always has been. They actually guesstimate a lot of their numbers so can be wildly inaccurate.

The problem is health surveillance in the US is not a Federal program. It is a state run set of programs and are often actually managed separately at the county and sometimes city level. Each state is different and whether they report to the CDC or not (even if mandated) depends on workload and staffing which is generally bad. This is very different than in socialized centrally governed countries. The EU, being similar to the US is comprised of 28 individual states with their own rules. At least in the EU they all report separately. The same should be true in the US as well. Considering the CDC to be something significant is a big mistake. I know Robert Redfield personally (I was part of the reason he was forced to retire from the US Army for fraudulent research [GP120 vaccine debacle] and he would be the last person in the world I would trust. All those HIV research guys (like Fauci) are prima donnas and have zero scruples so they rise to the top in the swamp of DC politics. They protect each other.

The next thing I notice is a lack of awareness of the kinetics of a pandemic. Waiting until hospitalizations reach 15% to start mandated distancing, closures, etc. is dangerous as this is late stage after transmission. Hospitalizations are usually 10 days or so after being infected. We assume (but don't actually know for certain) there is a 3-5 (up to 14 days has been observed) prodromal period which the patient is actively transmitting virus and this escalates for another 14 days or so. Roughly 65% of infected never show any symptoms at all but are actively shedding virus. The 5-10% that get critically ill may or may not benefit from hospitalization. Some studies show not being hospitalized increases odds of survival. It depends a lot on the treatment protocol in use in a particular facility. Ventilators are now shown to be a major cause of death and that patients kept of ventilators but placed in a prone position with oxygen fare better. The treatment regimens are all over the map now. Rendizivir is now shown to not only be expensive but useless yet the NIAID is still pushing it. Hydroxychloroquine is effective (debatable) before clinical symptoms are manifested and the same for Vitamin D. Countries that pushed HCQ use plus social distancing, mask use, border closures, and track/trace with firm quarantines now have almost zero COVID deaths.

 

[Old Microbiologist]

https://gizmodo.com/the-cdcs-new-chief-was-accused-of-fudging-hiv-vaccine-r-1824001869

Fudging is a nice way to say fraudulent data. I was the non-human primate guy for BW testing (and a big consumer of rhesus macaques) so I was asked to review the monkey data (I am in actuality an immunologist and in particular a vaccinologist) after not only did the GP120 vaccine not work in a large clinical trial in Indonesia, but it actually caused more deaths. The monkey data was faked completely to show protective response when none actually existed. The vaccine program was big money and a Congressionally mandated research program. The US military has zero interest in HIV as it is a non-battle deployment issue which takes years to manifest yet the fenced money was poured into the program as a political maneuver from the top down thus bypassing normal funding mechanisms (which are dismal in the military). Redfield was prosecuted at the Commander level (Article 15 by the WRAIR commander) and retired. His period of only treating patients was while all the investigations took place. Physicians are generally treated lightly in these situations and he was not alone in the fraud. So, how much do you trust the CDC?

The guy in charge of CDC readiness (the person responsible for managing and stockpiling masks, gloves, respirators, test kits, etc.) was the former commander of USAMRIID who was relieved from command as the anthrax debacle blamed on the scientist working at USAMRIID was ultimately blamed for the anthrax letters. So, of course he becomes the CDC director for readiness.

Soldiers are automatically medically retired if the test positive for HIV which is the simplest way to deal with a force deployment problem. The Army cares nothing about long term care as this is not a combat issue which is what we exist for. Sick and/or injured soldiers are non-deployable and are actually measured negatively in a unit status and can cause a particular combat unit to fall of the deployable list. This is the major concern of COVID and the military as it is dramatically affecting readiness.

 

[eytonxav]

Fort Worth Mayor saw rapid improvement from Covid after receiving IV antibody treatment. When will there be more widespread use of therapeutics like this one?
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronav...ting-new-covid-19-antibody-treatment/2492931/

 

[retire-early]

Might be more accurate to say "haven't had any Covid symptoms". The number of of asymptomatic cases is the mystery..

I don't know if this has been posted elsewhere.

According to the study in Iceland, because they were able to test many of their residents, as many as 40% of people who tested positive for the virus are asymptomatic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3

 

[bobbyr]

I tested positive on Nov 11. I ended up spending 6 days in the hospital due to shortness of breath, pneumonia, low oxygen etc beginning Nov 21.

Even though I had been diagnosed and sick for 10 days already, they put me through Remdesivir for 5 days (which I am happy about as it bought me time in the hospital where I was being well cared for). I never made it to ICU, but every shift taking my oxygen had me breathing deeply so it would be high enough to keep me out of ICU. I felt like ICU was not where I wanted to be. I was lying in bed at night thinking my 91 year old mom was gonna freaking out live me.

Now home and VERY slowly feeling better, with breathing exercises and rest and lots of fluids. i figure it'll be weeks before my lungs are happy.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow, so glad you made it home safely and that you didn’t have to go to the ICU, but got the care you needed. Here’s wishing you a speedy and thorough recovery!

 

[harllee]

I tested positive on Nov 11. I ended up spending 6 days in the hospital due to shortness of breath, pneumonia, low oxygen etc beginning Nov 21.

Even though I had been diagnosed and sick for 10 days already, they put me through Remdesivir for 5 days (which I am happy about as it bought me time in the hospital where I was being well cared for). I never made it to ICU, but every shift taking my oxygen had me breathing deeply so it would be high enough to keep me out of ICU. I felt like ICU was not where I wanted to be. I was lying in bed at night thinking my 91 year old mom was gonna freaking out live me.

Now home and VERY slowly feeling better, with breathing exercises and rest and lots of fluids. i figure it'll be weeks before my lungs are happy.

So glad you are out of the hospital and improving. Can you tell us about the breathing exercises you are doing?

 

[bobbyr]

So glad you are out of the hospital and improving. Can you tell us about the breathing exercises you are doing?

It's the incentive spirometer, where you breathe in, keeping a ball floating to make sure you are taking slow breaths. Then mark how high you made it...and try to hit that mark the next time. Painful at the end of the inhale, but important to have something to use while lying in bed.

https://www.drugs.com/cg/how-to-use-an-incentive-spirometer.html

At home, I am using it, but also walking around the house, working on breathing posture (chest big) etc. Sleeping at night with oxygen running through my cpap.

 

[ABQ2015]

Fort Worth Mayor saw rapid improvement from Covid after receiving IV antibody treatment. When will there be more widespread use of therapeutics like this one?
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronav...ting-new-covid-19-antibody-treatment/2492931/

NM has obtained 750 doses of the Bamlanivinab now "authorized for outpatient treatment of recently diagnosed mild to moderate COVID patients who have risk factor for severe COVID or hospitalization." Should be given ASAP after positive test or within 10 days of onset of symptoms. An example of effectiveness provided in recent NM Governor's briefing was that for 65+ with BMI 35+, risk was 4.2% for hospitalization versus 14.6% in placebo.

 

[W2R]

It's the incentive spirometer, where you breathe in, keeping a ball floating to make sure you are taking slow breaths. Then mark how high you made it...and try to hit that mark the next time. Painful at the end of the inhale, but important to have something to use while lying in bed.

https://www.drugs.com/cg/how-to-use-an-incentive-spirometer.html

At home, I am using it, but also walking around the house, working on breathing posture (chest big) etc. Sleeping at night with oxygen running through my cpap.

The hospital gave me one just like that to take home, use, and keep after my total knee replacement! In my case I had no complications; it was probably something they gave me for CYA since I had general anesthesia for the surgery.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

I tested positive on Nov 11. I ended up spending 6 days in the hospital due to shortness of breath, pneumonia, low oxygen etc beginning Nov 21.

Even though I had been diagnosed and sick for 10 days already, they put me through Remdesivir for 5 days (which I am happy about as it bought me time in the hospital where I was being well cared for). I never made it to ICU, but every shift taking my oxygen had me breathing deeply so it would be high enough to keep me out of ICU. I felt like ICU was not where I wanted to be. I was lying in bed at night thinking my 91 year old mom was gonna freaking out live me.

Now home and VERY slowly feeling better, with breathing exercises and rest and lots of fluids. i figure it'll be weeks before my lungs are happy.

Best wishes to you for a full recovery, Bobby.

 

[audreyh1]

Did they give you supplemental oxygen in the hospital or just have you breathing deeply?

Sounds like a scary experience.

 

[Calico]

I tested positive on Nov 11. I ended up spending 6 days in the hospital due to shortness of breath, pneumonia, low oxygen etc beginning Nov 21.

Even though I had been diagnosed and sick for 10 days already, they put me through Remdesivir for 5 days (which I am happy about as it bought me time in the hospital where I was being well cared for). I never made it to ICU, but every shift taking my oxygen had me breathing deeply so it would be high enough to keep me out of ICU. I felt like ICU was not where I wanted to be. I was lying in bed at night thinking my 91 year old mom was gonna freaking out live me.

Now home and VERY slowly feeling better, with breathing exercises and rest and lots of fluids. i figure it'll be weeks before my lungs are happy.

Thank goodness you are home and recovering, even if it is slowly. It must have been very scary. Good job on staying out of the ICU!

 

[bobbyr]

Did they give you supplemental oxygen in the hospital or just have you breathing deeply?

Sounds like a scary experience.

supplemental oxygen 4 of 6 days I was there...much needed (the thought of not having it gave me huge anxiety).

The last two days, I was able to take it off and be ok...which gave me some confidence. Ok means 92 or 93% withouth o2.

now i am home and off oxygen except at night. my o2 is usually 94 or 95.

weaning off inhaler with steroid in the next few days hopefully - oxygen holding steady, sleeping at night with oxygen and cpap and the rest is doing wonders for me. Also hitting the incentive spirometer tool during the day to assist lung repair.

 

[Rianne]

supplemental oxygen 4 of 6 days I was there...much needed (the thought of not having it gave me huge anxiety).

The last two days, I was able to take it off and be ok...which gave me some confidence. Ok means 92 or 93% withouth o2.

now i am home and off oxygen except at night. my o2 is usually 94 or 95.

weaning off inhaler with steroid in the next few days hopefully - oxygen holding steady, sleeping at night with oxygen and cpap and the rest is doing wonders for me. Also hitting the incentive spirometer tool during the day to assist lung repair.

Please keep us updated. Possibly share if you had pre existing conditions? Your post gives me confidence in fighting this virus.

 

[bobbyr]

Please keep us updated. Possibly share if you had pre existing conditions? Your post gives me confidence in fighting this virus.

i am guessing you mean co-morbidities?
i am 6'1 235 (now 218 from covid). 62 years old, pretty high exerciser including weights when walking
no diabetes
no heart issues
sleep apnea is probably my largest issue.

 

[audreyh1]

supplemental oxygen 4 of 6 days I was there...much needed (the thought of not having it gave me huge anxiety).

The last two days, I was able to take it off and be ok...which gave me some confidence. Ok means 92 or 93% withouth o2.

now i am home and off oxygen except at night. my o2 is usually 94 or 95.

weaning off inhaler with steroid in the next few days hopefully - oxygen holding steady, sleeping at night with oxygen and cpap and the rest is doing wonders for me. Also hitting the incentive spirometer tool during the day to assist lung repair.

Thanks for sharing the details.

 

[CindyBlue]

I tested positive on Nov 11. I ended up spending 6 days in the hospital due to shortness of breath, pneumonia, low oxygen etc beginning Nov 21.

Even though I had been diagnosed and sick for 10 days already, they put me through Remdesivir for 5 days (which I am happy about as it bought me time in the hospital where I was being well cared for). I never made it to ICU, but every shift taking my oxygen had me breathing deeply so it would be high enough to keep me out of ICU. I felt like ICU was not where I wanted to be. I was lying in bed at night thinking my 91 year old mom was gonna freaking out live me.

Now home and VERY slowly feeling better, with breathing exercises and rest and lots of fluids. i figure it'll be weeks before my lungs are happy.

I'm so sorry you got it... So glad you are out of the there!

 

[Chuckanut]

Please keep us updated. Possibly share if you had pre existing conditions? Your post gives me confidence in fighting this virus.

Here's another example of a CV victim:

As I have mentioned at other times, I have a friend who is about 65. He is very fit, HWP, and active. He skies, backpacks, kayaks, for days at a time. If a tree on his lot falls down, he's out there the next day clearing the branches, cutting it up and stacking cords of wood.

He got Covid and was out of commission for a full month. By 'out of commission' I mean - did not go to work, stayed in separate bedroom from his wife, and was flat on his back in bed most of the time.
His wife thinks he is still not mentally all-there. But, IMHO, he's such a character that I don't see how anybody could tell the difference.

Amazingly, his wife (also a fit and active person) never got the virus.

These are two more data points in a very enigmatic situation.

HWP - Height, weight proportional