Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[REWahoo]

Well if the day totals don't match over time or at least they don't match by week, one or both aren't very believable.

You think the state website numbers are incorrect and the worldmeters website is accurate?

 

[Chuckanut]

Thank you. On Memorial Day there were 529 new cases in TX. Today there were over 9K new cases in TX or about 17x cases today vs. MD. Yet hospitalizations are double. Is that increasing hospitalization correspondingly?

The state of Washington has just hit a record high for new daily infections. Part of this is no doubt a doubling of testing.

My county's rolling 7 Day Average was 34 a month ago. Today it is 153. I calculate that myself using the county's daily figures on new cases.

 

[Chuckanut]

Well if the day totals don't match over time or at least they don't match by week, one or both aren't very believable.

I've compare my county's daily figures that I get in an email versus the ones that are online for the previous day. More often than not they differ, often by a dozen or more infections. I attribute this to 'updates' as the day goes on. Regardless of the cause, the number of cases has increased almost 5x, and only part of that increase can be attributed to a doubling of the testing in the last month to six weeks, IMHO.

To the best of my knowledge nobody has done a statistically valid random sampling of citizens to determine how widespread this disease was and is.

 

[Olbidness]

But our board cheerleader says we can just fly them in. No?

Or sail a military hospital ship into Houston. Just like they did in NY.

 

[audreyh1]

The state of Washington has just hit a record high for new daily infections. Part of this is no doubt a doubling of testing.

My county's rolling 7 Day Average was 34 a month ago. Today it is 153. I calculate that myself using the county's daily figures on new cases.

Do you have a way to see the % positive in the tests? If it is increasing, then it's not due to more testing. Some hard hit areas are seeing big increases in positivity rates - for example, in Houston area it has reached 25%!5% of

The WHO guidelines are that if the %positive is above 5%, the area is not doing nearly enough testing to keep up with the spread.

 

[audreyh1]

I've compare my county's daily figures that I get in an email versus the ones that are online for the previous day. More often than not they differ, often by a dozen or more infections. I attribute this to 'updates' as the day goes on. Regardless of the cause, the number of cases has increased almost 5x, and only part of that increase can be attributed to a doubling of the testing in the last month to six weeks, IMHO.

To the best of my knowledge nobody has done a statistically valid random sampling of citizens to determine how widespread this disease was and is.

Well they had with some small populations several months ago and got some ideas of the exposure in those specific areas. The answers would be vastly different today I imagine.

Unfortunately, due to the antibodies usually dropping after 60 days, it's not that easy to measure supposed herd immunity right now.

 

[ivinsfan]

Do you have a way to see the % positive in the tests? If it is increasing, then it's not due to more testing. Some hard hit areas are seeing big increases in positivity rates - for example, in Houston area it has reached 25%!5% of

The WHO guidelines are that if the %positive is above 5%, the area is not doing nearly enough testing to keep up with the spread.

I wonder if there are any large work outbreaks in Houston? That can really skew the positive rates upwards. In MN the only time our rate breached 5% was when we had almost simultaneous outbreaks in 3 separate meatpacking plants and they were testing all the workers.

 

[brewer12345]

Or sail a military hospital ship into Houston. Just like they did in NY.

I suspect the navy will be reluctant to do that again. All it did was cause a cluster on board the ships when they sent them to NYC.

 

[Olbidness]

Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas!

I suspect the navy will be reluctant to do that again. All it did was cause a cluster on board the ships when they sent them to NYC.

I think the admissions to the ship were mismanaged. They were to accept non-COVID cases to open up beds on shore.
Hopefully if called into service they will have learned from that experience.

The military doesn’t have the luxury of being reluctant . They go wherever they’re ordered, always have always will.

Having spent a good deal of time in the Houston Medical Center, it is a sight to behold. If I have a choice to be anywhere when the SHTF it’s Houston.

 

[audreyh1]

I suspect the navy will be reluctant to do that again. All it did was cause a cluster on board the ships when they sent them to NYC.

Also - there are large outbreaks inland which are not accessible by ship.

 

[audreyh1]

I wonder if there are any large work outbreaks in Houston? That can really skew the positive rates upwards. In MN the only time our rate breached 5% was when we had almost simultaneous outbreaks in 3 separate meatpacking plants and they were testing all the workers.

I have heard no mention of any specific business linked to the outbreak. Harris County has a population of over 4.6 million - I'm not sure some specific business is even going to register. All mentions have been of social gatherings related to holidays, of bars reopening and inside restaurant dining reopening. Nobody has mentioned any particular business or hospital. It's not driven by nursing homes at all. I think it's pretty much community spread affecting younger folks mostly, some in the workplace, but lots from social contact as well, and of course bringing some of the exposure back to parents and grandparents.

 

[Olbidness]

Also - there are large outbreaks inland which are not accessible by ship.

For every solution there is a problem.

 

[Freedom56]

Florida reports 7347 new infections and 63 deaths.

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20200707/7347-new-covid-19-cases-in-florida-on-tuesday

We were considering returning to our condo since our Europe trip was cancelled. I saw business class fares from LAX to FLL selling for as little as $722 return. However given the restrictions they imposed in our building with respect to pool access, the fitness center, and number of people that can be in the elevators simultaneously, we'll wait. I expected Florida's numbers to drop as people leave South Florida and head north starting June. July and August are normally low season as it is so hot and humid. This year may be different.

 

[REWahoo]

Since the announcement Monday that San Antonio hospitals would, at the current admission rate, be at capacity in a week, a 250 bed field hospital is being set up:

San Antonio field hospital set up at Freeman Expo Hall

 

[GravitySucks]

Not sure why some think there would be a lack of volunteers to help in Texas.
NYC had more volunteers than spots available.
Two of the four hospitals in my county laid off 400 employees this week, imagine some of those would be willing to volunteer.

 

[brewer12345]

For every solution there is a problem.

Teleportation?

As for the notion that any deployment would be better managed, I think that is a fantasy. This plague is extremely contagious, so once they start accepting patients of any kind on the ship it is just a matter of time before it spreads like wildfire on board.

 

[audreyh1]

Not sure why some think there would be a lack of volunteers to help in Texas.
NYC had more volunteers than spots available.
Two of the four hospitals in my county laid off 400 employees this week, imagine some of those would be willing to volunteer.

I think the concern is that we no longer have a concentrated outbreak in one part of the country, but rather a widespread set of outbreaks happening simultaneously.

We'll just have to see how this plays out.

 

[Olbidness]

Not sure why some think there would be a lack of volunteers to help in Texas.
NYC had more volunteers than spots available.
Two of the four hospitals in my county laid off 400 employees this week, imagine some of those would be willing to volunteer.

Complex problems are often overcome by series of imperfect solutions. We have not yet brought the full weight of this country to bear on this problem. While the current state of infection, hospitalization, and deaths is concerning, it is not quite like people dropping dead in the streets.

...If you can keep your head when those about you are losing theirs and are blaming it on you....RK

 

[audreyh1]

Their cumulative data has been pretty good, but their "last 24 hours" numbers are often missing; I noticed this because I kept checking for Florida's record-breaking numbers and I never saw them listed on Worldometers. Right now, only two states have new cases, and only three list new deaths.

Worldometers just posted today’s numbers from Florida which were released at noon.

 

[Olbidness]

Teleportation?



As for the notion that any deployment would be better managed, I think that is a fantasy. This plague is extremely contagious, so once they start accepting patients of any kind on the ship it is just a matter of time before it spreads like wildfire on board.

I think most Texans could find Houston.

 

[JoeWras]

Do you have a way to see the % positive in the tests? If it is increasing, then it's not due to more testing. Some hard hit areas are seeing big increases in positivity rates - for example, in Houston area it has reached 25%!5% of

The WHO guidelines are that if the %positive is above 5%, the area is not doing nearly enough testing to keep up with the spread.

25% is clearly an alarm, but the WHO guidance of 5% is suspect. The WHO has let us down on many accounts.

Finally, just in the last few hours, they've agreed to consider the airborne angle of transmission only after pressure from a range of scientists. Their closed mindedness to emerging issues has been alarming.

 

[audreyh1]

25% is clearly an alarm, but the WHO guidance of 5% is suspect. The WHO has let us down on many accounts.

Finally, just in the last few hours, they've agreed to consider the airborne angle of transmission only after pressure from a range of scientists. Their closed mindedness to emerging issues has been alarming.

Yes, I know there are issues. But it still seems to be a reasonable guideline/goal. States were advised not to open (or go very slow?) until they had gotten testing up enough to see a positivity rate of 5% or lower for 14 days, which indicated that the disease might be manageable while slowly reopening, and that contact tracing could keep up with new outbreaks.

 

[brewer12345]

I think most Texans could find Houston.

Yes, let's have more of the infected pour into a city that is already being overwhelmed. That will be great.

 

[Olbidness]

Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas!

Yes, let's have more of the infected pour into a city that is already being overwhelmed. That will be great.

Not close to being overwhelmed at the moment.

There are many regional medical facilities that are capable of handling COVID cases. My choice is Clear Lake where several of my doctors have treated astronauts. If they’re good enough for the NASA folks they’re good enough for me.

I’m neither a cheerleader or Eeyore, I choose a middle road.

 

[Chuckanut]

Do you have a way to see the % positive in the tests? If it is increasing, then it's not due to more testing. Some hard hit areas are seeing big increases in positivity rates - for example, in Houston area it has reached 25%!5% of

The WHO guidelines are that if the %positive is above 5%, the area is not doing nearly enough testing to keep up with the spread.

Percent positive is 5.9%. Our Rt number has been over 1.0 for over a month It is currently 1.22. We are definitely going backwards.