Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[gerntz]

You think the state website numbers are incorrect and the worldmeters website is accurate?

No idea. But if they don't agree reasonably then one or both are unreliable.

 

[Montecfo]

I think the concern is that we no longer have a concentrated outbreak in one part of the country, but rather a widespread set of outbreaks happening simultaneously.

We'll just have to see how this plays out.

I recall multiple hotspots earlier: NY, NJ, Washington state, etc. And earlier there were far higher rates of hospitalization and deaths were close to 10 times higher than today's rate a month ago.

So the severity is far lower and spreading it over more hospitals is a plus not a negative.

1.4M healthcare workers lost jobs during the lockdown. Pretty sure many of them are still seeking employment.

 

[brewer12345]

Fugly numbers in Texas today. +10,028 cases, +588 hospitalized. 60 deaths.

 

[MichaelB]

I recall multiple hotspots earlier: NY, NJ, Washington state, etc. And earlier there were far higher rates of hospitalization and deaths were close to 10 times higher than today's rate a month ago.

So the severity is far lower and spreading it over more hospitals is a plus not a negative.

1.4M healthcare workers lost jobs during the lockdown. Pretty sure many of them are still seeking employment.

The death rate is far lower. We don't yet know if there are other permanent or long term health impacts.

Do you have any data or hard sources that show hospitals in Houston hiring trained health care employees to deal with the sudden increase in hospitalizations?

 

[REWahoo]

Fugly numbers in Texas today. +10,028 cases, +588 hospitalized. 60 deaths.

^ Both are records.

The only positive I can see is the previous two days case and death numbers, coming of the 4th of July holiday, were abnormally low. Average the three days together any you get ~6,300 daily cases and the previous few days had been running just shy of 8,000/day.

Similarly, the three day average of deaths is [-]52[/-] 36/day vs. the ~45/day average reported the previous few days.

Yes, I'm grasping at straws to keep the latest numbers from totally bumming me out.

Edit: I'm happy to say my average daily death number for the past three days was wrong. Corrected above.

 

[MichaelB]

^ Both are records.

The only positive I can see is the previous two days case and death numbers, coming of the 4th of July holiday, were abnormally low. Average the three days together any you get ~6,300 daily cases and the previous few days had been running just shy of 8,000/day.

Similarly, the three day average of deaths is 52/day vs. the ~45/day average reported the previous few days.

Yes, I'm grasping at straws to keep the latest numbers from totally bumming me out.

I calculate a rolling 7 day average for Florida numbers. They're still fugly, but the reporting uneveness is minimized.


No way to help the Texas hospitalization and fatality numbers. Hopefully they will peak and decline soon.

 

[candrew]

1.4M healthcare workers lost jobs during the lockdown. Pretty sure many of them are still seeking employment.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...kers-laid-off-furloughed-during-pandemic.html

"Most of those job losses were in ambulatory healthcare services and included offices of dentists (503,300), offices of physicians (243,300), and offices of other healthcare practitioners (205,100). However, 134,900 of the April job losses were in hospitals."

I'm venturing a guess that of those job losses in ambulatory health (dentist offices, physicians offices) many of those staff do not have the skill set necessary for an acute care hospital environment.

Regarding layoffs in hospitals, most of those are the direct result of lower elective procedure volumes as health systems in many states were ordered to suspend those. Granted, *some* of those ambulatory care nurses could be redeployed to inpatient units, provided there is a willingness on their part to do so. Many nurses begin their careers in acute care and later transition to ambulatory care as it is less stressful and less physically demanding.

 

[Montecfo]

The death rate is far lower. We don't yet know if there are other permanent or long term health impacts.

Do you have any data or hard sources that show hospitals in Houston hiring trained health care employees to deal with the sudden increase in hospitalizations?

I have not seen a widespread call for it yet but they are already being hired, and recruited if needed:

Such as (all within past 2.weeks):

"Texas seeking volunteer help from medical professionals amid covid19"

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/06/25/texas-seeking-volunteer-help-from-medical-professionals-amid-covid-19-pandemic/

NYTimes reports Houston Methodist "hiring traveling nurses to bolster its staff"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/us/coronavirus-hospital-houston.html

Nurses Journal reports hospital nursing JOBS
(Not nurses) getting harder to find. Suggests Texas markets (Including Houston) for job seekers.

https://nursejournal.org/community/could-hospital-jobs-be-getting-harder-to-find-for-nurses/

 

[Montecfo]

https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...kers-laid-off-furloughed-during-pandemic.html

"Most of those job losses were in ambulatory healthcare services and included offices of dentists (503,300), offices of physicians (243,300), and offices of other healthcare practitioners (205,100). However, 134,900 of the April job losses were in hospitals."

I'm venturing a guess that of those job losses in ambulatory health (dentist offices, physicians offices) many of those staff do not have the skill set necessary for an acute care hospital environment.

Regarding layoffs in hospitals, most of those are the direct result of lower elective procedure volumes as health systems in many states were ordered to suspend those. Granted, *some* of those ambulatory care nurses could be redeployed to inpatient units, provided there is a willingness on their part to do so. Many nurses begin their careers in acute care and later transition to ambulatory care as it is less stressful and less physically demanding.

Hospital nursing jobs becoming harder to find?

https://nursejournal.org/community/could-hospital-jobs-be-getting-harder-to-find-for-nurses/

 

[Dtail]

^ Both are records.

The only positive I can see is the previous two days case and death numbers, coming of the 4th of July holiday, were abnormally low. Average the three days together any you get ~6,300 daily cases and the previous few days had been running just shy of 8,000/day.

Similarly, the three day average of deaths is [-]52[/-] 36/day vs. the ~45/day average reported the previous few days.

Yes, I'm grasping at straws to keep the latest numbers from totally bumming me out.

Edit: I'm happy to say my average daily death number for the past three days was wrong. Corrected above.

I think your total number of posts on this forum is in line with roughly the average new daily case rate for the USA.
Just another fun fact to ponder.

 

[candrew]

Hospital nursing jobs becoming harder to find?

https://nursejournal.org/community/could-hospital-jobs-be-getting-harder-to-find-for-nurses/

There are jobs to be had for nurses willing to work in an inpatient acute care environment. The key is having enough of them with the required experience and skill set. Depending on travelers and volunteers may be fine over the short term, but it looks as though we'll be in for a longer haul than just a seasonal epidemic.

 

[ejman]

Sorry to see Texas seems to be "winning" the race with Florida. According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Texas at 218,300 cases, Florida at 213,794. Texas has some catching up to do on total deaths but sad to say they are working hard at it. I went to college in Texas and lived many years there. It's really sad to see this happening and hope they can get a handle on this pestilence. (and Florida, and the whole country too.). Also very sad to see total deaths seems to be starting the up ramp to the incredible growth in cases. 866 today vs. 379 yesterday.

 

[audreyh1]

I recall multiple hotspots earlier: NY, NJ, Washington state, etc. And earlier there were far higher rates of hospitalization and deaths were close to 10 times higher than today's rate a month ago.

So the severity is far lower and spreading it over more hospitals is a plus not a negative.

1.4M healthcare workers lost jobs during the lockdown. Pretty sure many of them are still seeking employment.

We’ll see. No, we probably won’t see the New York peak daily deaths for several reasons, but it’s going to be bad enough. The Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Fort Worth mayors are already reporting they expect to run out of hospital beds in two weeks or less. The Rio Grande Valley looks to already be there. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/05/texas-coronavirus-hospitals-houston-san-antonio-austin/

 

[audreyh1]

^ Both are records.

The only positive I can see is the previous two days case and death numbers, coming of the 4th of July holiday, were abnormally low. Average the three days together any you get ~6,300 daily cases and the previous few days had been running just shy of 8,000/day.

Similarly, the three day average of deaths is [-]52[/-] 36/day vs. the ~45/day average reported the previous few days.

Yes, I'm grasping at straws to keep the latest numbers from totally bumming me out.

Edit: I'm happy to say my average daily death number for the past three days was wrong. Corrected above.

Monday numbers are usually low. But yes it’s really shocking to see over 10,000 new cases after trending at 8000 for a while.

 

[audreyh1]

I calculate a rolling 7 day average for Florida numbers. They're still fugly, but the reporting uneveness is minimized.


No way to help the Texas hospitalization and fatality numbers. Hopefully they will peak and decline soon.

I have no idea what the delay is between some measures taken and a decline in cases and hospitalizations. New York went into full shutdown. How long did it still take them to get past the peak? Texas has reimposed some restrictions and mandated masks for most counties (counties with 20 cases or more), but there is not going to be a shutdown/stay-at-home. So I’m not sure how much the spread will slow, or how quickly. It’s like slowing a tanker - there is already a huge amount of momentum.

 

[NW-Reader]

To the best of my knowledge nobody has done a statistically valid random sampling of citizens to determine how widespread this disease was and is.

Right here in Seattle, the SCAN study (Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network) is doing such a sampling. They were temporarily shut down by the FDA but are now back at it, doing at-home sampling. If you live in King County you can sign up to participate.

https://scanpublichealth.org/

This is an article from STAT News describing the FDA shutdown: https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/27/coronavirus-testing-seattle-bill-gates-fda/

 

[NW-Reader]

A really fascinating and distressing story highlighting asymptomatic spread among young people. There is a Covid outbreak among fraternities at the University of Washington, and a big testing push is showing lots of cases in asymptomatic people, who would never have been tested otherwise. As of the weekend, something like 1300 tests and 121 positive, so almost 10%.

I live about 2 miles away. I’m so glad I stopped getting my groceries in person at the Safeway where those boys go to buy their beer. Since March I’ve been doing curbside pickup at a different location.

I was going to post a link but I see it’s made several national news outlets.

 

[brewer12345]

The local school district has decided that they will have the kids back 5 days a week, which boggles my mind. This puts me in a real hard place. My kids very much want to go back, but I cannot see how crowded high schools will not become a petri dish very quickly. Have 5 weeks to figure out what I am going to do.

 

[harllee]

The local school district has decided that they will have the kids back 5 days a week, which boggles my mind. This puts me in a real hard place. My kids very much want to go back, but I cannot see how crowded high schools will not become a petri dish very quickly. Have 5 weeks to figure out what I am going to do.

I am normally not a fan of home schooling but in this case most of my extended family is considering home schooling with online classes this upcoming year and I think it is a good idea. Even though young kids don't seem to be getting sick from the virus they could bring it home and get everyone else in the family sick. I just don't see how public schools are going to work.

 

[brewer12345]

I am normally not a fan of home schooling but in this case most of my extended family is considering home schooling with online classes this upcoming year and I think it is a good idea. Even though young kids don't seem to be getting sick from the virus they could bring it home and get everyone else in the family sick. I just don't see how public schools are going to work.

For one thing, the class action lawsuits are going to be epic.

 

[RobbieB]

I do. We all have to be exposed at some point and that point is coming.

We tried to delay it but hey, how did that work out?

It's coming!

 

[audreyh1]

I’m using all my procrastination skills on this one!

 

[audreyh1]

Fugly numbers in Texas today. +10,028 cases, +588 hospitalized. 60 deaths.

More details here: https://theweek.com/speedreads/9242...e-than-10000-new-coronavirus-cases-single-day

On Tuesday, Texas reported 10,028 new coronavirus cases — the first time the state has recorded more than 10,000 new cases in a single day. Texas also reported 60 new coronavirus deaths, a daily record.

Looking at data released by the Texas Department of State Health Services, The Texas Tribune has determined there are 210,585 coronavirus cases in Texas, with the death toll at 2,715. There are now 9,286 Texans hospitalized for the coronavirus, 2,753 more than a week ago.

 

[W2R]

More details here: https://theweek.com/speedreads/9242...e-than-10000-new-coronavirus-cases-single-day

On Tuesday, Texas reported 10,028 new coronavirus cases — the first time the state has recorded more than 10,000 new cases in a single day. Texas also reported 60 new coronavirus deaths, a daily record.

Looking at data released by the Texas Department of State Health Services, The Texas Tribune has determined there are 210,585 coronavirus cases in Texas, with the death toll at 2,715. There are now 9,286 Texans hospitalized for the coronavirus, 2,753 more than a week ago.

Texas has reimposed some restrictions and mandated masks for most counties (counties with 20 cases or more), but there is not going to be a shutdown/stay-at-home.

Even if there is not a mandated shutdown/stay-at-home, you might want to consider whether or not you want to stay at home and away from others. Nobody is saying you can't. When our daily new cases curve peaked so suddenly back around April 2nd, I did more than what was required, because it made sense to me at that time.

It sounds like Texas is ahead of Louisiana on this second wave, so I'm watching and trying to think ahead for our situation as well. I guess I'm sort of thinking out loud in this post.

 

[Sunset]

Complex problems are often overcome by series of imperfect solutions. We have not yet brought the full weight of this country to bear on this problem. While the current state of infection, hospitalization, and deaths is concerning, it is not quite like people dropping dead in the streets.

...

I have not seen anybody drop dead on the street.

On the other hand in a mere 6 months this virus has killed a lot more Americans than:
War in Afghanistan + Iraq War + Korean War + Vietnam War + 911 combined.

I think the way the bodies are hidden, unlike the Vietnam war, contributes to large numbers of the public not taking this seriously.