Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[audreyh1]

Texas posted 174 new deaths today, blowing away any previous days!

 

[Car-Guy]

Well Texas hit a new milestone today. Some quick calculations from the official Texas numbers say we now have had just over 1% of the states population infected or reporting to have (or have had) CV19... Over half of those are estimated to still be active.

Death rate of those confirmed cases is ~1.2143%.

Pretty dang sure we have many, many more "unconfirmed/untested cases" so while the actual death rate will never be known exactly, I'm pretty sure it is really below 1% of total cases if the current trends hold.

Any % of deaths is not good but it's a lot better than some of the estimates I was hearing 3 or 4 months ago.

 

[audreyh1]

Even if the death rate turns out to be a lot lower than thought, and nowhere near the initial NY disaster rate, the death count will still grow substantially, because we have such a huge growth in cases, and no indication of slowing at this point!

If hospitals can’t keep up, then the death rate from everything will increase, not just COVID-19, because people will not be able to get adequate medical care. Unfortunately, we seem to be at that point where hospitals are struggling in the hard hit areas in TX.

 

[Car-Guy]

Even if the death rate turns out to be a lot lower than thought, and nowhere near the initial NY disaster rate, the death count will still grow substantially, because we have such a huge growth in cases, and no indication of slowing at this point!

If hospitals can’t keep up, then the death rate from everything will increase, not just COVID-19, because people will not be able to get adequate medical care. Unfortunately, we seem to be at that point where hospitals are struggling in the hard hit areas in TX.

Of course the death "count" will grow.... Hopefully the hospitals can keep up (or even do better) and the death % rate will go down.

 

[jimbee]

Sorry to mention it, but a very elderly man took off his m* in the small lobby of our bank yesterday, loudly proclaiming that “True Christians” wouldn’t catch the virus. He was very cantankerous, and easily could have been 90. We were waiting to access our safe deposit box, and the place was almost empty. We were able to wait on the other side of the room.

Superstition is powerful.

 

[ejman]

Well Texas hit a new milestone today. Some quick calculations from the official Texas numbers say we now have had just over 1% of the states population infected or reporting to have (or have had) CV19... Over half of those are estimated to still be active.

Death rate of those confirmed cases is ~1.2143%.

Pretty dang sure we have many, many more "unconfirmed/untested cases" so while the actual death rate will never be known exactly, I'm pretty sure it is really below 1% of total cases if the current trends hold.

Any % of deaths is not good but it's a lot better than some of the estimates I was hearing 3 or 4 months ago.

I sure hope the actual death rate is a lot lower. The population of Texas is 29,000,000. If everyone gets infected, 1% of that is 290,000 dead people. even .1% is 29,000 dead the numbers get so overwhelming, particularly if they happen in a short time frame that I sure hope it gets under control on its own because...

 

[Car-Guy]

I sure hope the actual death rate is a lot lower. The population of Texas is 29,000,000. If everyone gets infected, 1% of that is 290,000 dead people. even .1% is 29,000 dead the numbers get so overwhelming, particularly if they happen in a short time frame that I sure hope it gets under control on its own because...

Well I don't think that's going to be the case nor anywhere near it... However, you do have to wonder what the officials here are thinking... ($$$) The big NASCAR race is going to be held in Texas this weekend (FT Worth area) and they are estimating that they will allow up to 25k fans to attend.

 

[audreyh1]

Apparently the speedway can hold almost 130,000 fans! So maybe limited to $25K means ample room for distancing.

Month old article about their planned restrictions. They emphasize that it’s an outdoor venue.https://nascar.nbcsports.com/2020/0...way-to-host-fans-for-july-19-nascar-cup-race/ Daily case counts were a lot lower then.

It will be interesting to see what happens. No pre or post activities, but still, fans travel, fans often celebrate, etc.

 

[Montecfo]

Even if the death rate turns out to be a lot lower than thought, and nowhere near the initial NY disaster rate, the death count will still grow substantially, because we have such a huge growth in cases, and no indication of slowing at this point!

If hospitals can’t keep up, then the death rate from everything will increase, not just COVID-19, because people will not be able to get adequate medical care. Unfortunately, we seem to be at that point where hospitals are struggling in the hard hit areas in TX.

New hospitalizations have been falling in Houston recently. So though there are more cases, it seems like the very recent trend is toward less severe cases.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/infection-rate-in-the-greater-houston-area/

 

[audreyh1]

New hospitalizations have been falling in Houston recently. So though there are more cases, it seems like the very recent trend is toward less severe cases.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/infection-rate-in-the-greater-houston-area/

Unfortunately here in Hidalgo County not so good.

 

[GoodWishes]

Friend lives in California and needs to go to Florida to help out elderly parents. She, her husband and 2 pre teen kids are going to drive via I 10 from California, through Arizona, Texas .... to Florida. We call that the "hot spot route" . The good things is they have a RV and plan to stay within the RV most of the time.

 

[Car-Guy]

Apparently the speedway can hold almost 130,000 fans! So maybe limited to $25K means ample room for distancing.

True enough that they do say they will maintain social distancing and it is outdoors of course.

What's interesting to me is that this is only the second time (I think) that the NASCAR Cup Series has allowed any spectators to be in attendance since they restarted racing about 2 months ago. I think one of the earlier races allowed about 5k in the stands but all of the other races had zero fans in attendance... (not sure about the race in Bristol) So why not start off with crowds in one of the biggest CV hot spot states. $$$

 

[tutan]

+1

Months ago I saw estimates that if no vaccine was forthcoming within the next few years, 70% of the population would eventually get the virus. That would mean 30% would not, and with a US population of 330 milllion, I'm striving to be among those 99 million who don't.

As the infected population exceeds a big percentage, say 40+% , the rest will need to join in unfortunately.

 

[audreyh1]

Friend lives in California and needs to go to Florida to help out elderly parents. She, her husband and 2 pre teen kids are going to drive via I 10 from California, through Arizona, Texas .... to Florida. We call that the "hot spot route" . The good things is they have a RV and plan to stay within the RV most of the time.

They should be fine. RV is a great way to go. Self-contained.

Then what happens when they get to FL

 

[ProspectiveBum]

All the data show getting the kids in class is best and covid risk is small overall based on numerous studies overseas.



I hope we can get as many kids as possible safely into class where they learn better and have access to services including free and reduced lunches, and so we they do not fall behind other countries.

I understand all the conflicting needs at play here, but what about the health and safety of the teachers and administration at these schools? If I were a teacher, I wouldn’t be keen at all to jump back into a closed space with 30 children.

Simply no good answers here.

 

[REWahoo]

I understand all the conflicting needs at play here, but what about the health and safety of the teachers and administration at these schools?

And their families.

No good answers at all.

 

[harllee]

True enough that they do say they will maintain social distancing and it is outdoors of course.

What's interesting to me is that this is only the second time (I think) that the NASCAR Cup Series has allowed any spectators to be in attendance since they restarted racing about 2 months ago. I think one of the earlier races allowed about 5k in the stands but all of the other races had zero fans in attendance... (not sure about the race in Bristol) So why not start off with crowds in one of the biggest CV hot spot states. $$$

Jus this week they had a NASCAR race in Bristol TN with 20,000 fans. Supposedly they required distancing and other precautions but from the pictures I saw the rules were not followed. I predict it will turn out to be a super spreader event.

 

[brewer12345]

Jus this week they had a NASCAR race in Bristol TN with 20,000 fans. Supposedly they required distancing and other precautions but from the pictures I saw the rules were not followed. I predict it will turn out to be a super spreader event.

Bandimere Speedway locally keeps getting in trouble for overcrowding and not following health department rules. I don't understand why all of this idiocy isn't just shut down for the duration.

 

[Corporateburnout]

All the data show getting the kids in class is best and covid risk is small overall based on numerous studies overseas.

Israel's experiment with school reopening was a disaster.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israe...were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

From the article:

On June 3, two weeks after schools opened, more than 244 students and staff were found to test positive for COVID-19.

According to the education ministry, 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have contracted COVID-19, and 28,147 are in quarantine due to possible contagion.

Just in the first two weeks of July, 393 kindergartens and schools open for summer programs have been shuttered due to cases of COVID-19.

 

[brewer12345]

Israel's experiment with school reopening was a disaster.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israe...were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

From the article:

On June 3, two weeks after schools opened, more than 244 students and staff were found to test positive for COVID-19.

According to the education ministry, 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have contracted COVID-19, and 28,147 are in quarantine due to possible contagion.

Just in the first two weeks of July, 393 kindergartens and schools open for summer programs have been shuttered due to cases of COVID-19.

In the US this would be a defcon-5 litigation event.

 

[Sunset]

....
Not sure why this discussion on methodology is taking place. It would be helpful if the State of Florida would disclose more data and daily changes, but they choose not to. The chart of fatalities definitely leads some observers to conclude, erroneously, that the recent rate of fatalities is lower than it really is.

I recall about reading how the creator of some of FL official websites was fired for refusing to falsify the data to make things look good.

"After FLORIDA TODAY first reported Jones' removal from her position in charge of the Florida COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard she created, she confirmed, as reported by CBS-12 in West Palm Beach that she was fired because she was ordered to censor some data, but refused to "manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen.""

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/f...using-to-manipulate-covid-19-data/ar-BB14jG4Y

 

[MichaelB]

A number of posts, all on schools, were moved from this thread to another that is dedicated to that topic. Please post all new thoughts on schools there https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...-online-in-the-fall-104647-2.html#post2458557

 

[Chuckanut]

New hospitalizations have been falling in Houston recently. So though there are more cases, it seems like the very recent trend is toward less severe cases.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/infection-rate-in-the-greater-houston-area/

Here in WA state, my 7 Day rolling average of new infections is now at an all time high. But, the number of deaths stays constant - in the mid to high single digit area. This is consistent with the spread of the virus in the less seriously affected 20-40 age group. Meanwhile, we oldsters are avoiding the crowded bar scene and wild parties at the beaches and parks. My last 'going wild' event was having a beer outside with a buddy who had just retired. We whooped it up to the point of almost having a 2nd beer - Wild and Crazy Guys R Us.

The big issue is the schools. The increased infection rates is crushing the desire of parents to send kids back to school, teachers and other staff to return to schools, and even bus drivers to drive school buses. Starting pay for bus drivers in my district has gone from about $24 an hour to $30 an hour since the previous school year.

 

[yakers]

W2R, problem in NO is you use the wrong kind of masks

 

[Freedom56]

Florida is rapidly catching up to California and New York for the number of infections. At this rate, Florida will pass both states by the end of the month.

Our condo building manager sent out another terse email out this morning to all residents regarding a large party that was held in the common room last night. The building security was called to break it up just after midnight. Now they are closing the common room to all residents. We have a lot of students in our building that attend Palm Beach Atlantic University and rent units in our building. Normally most students and residents head north during July and August, but this year people are staying in Florida despite the heat and humidity.