National Housing Market Update

[Tiger]

National Housing Market Update



2nd Quarter Analysis of Home Prices and Appreciation Rates
From www.ofheo.gov

_____________________

U.S. home prices were 3.2% higher in second quarter compared with a year earlier, the slowest price gains in 10 years, according to a quarterly index released by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
A year ago, the year-over-year gain was 10%.
After adjusting for inflation of about 2.1%, real home prices rose 1.1% nationally in the past year.
Five states showed lower prices over the past year: Nevada, Michigan, California, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Utah had the best gains at 15.3% in the past year, followed by other states in the West and Southeast.

The 20 best performing areas for home price appreciation are shown below. Next, the bottom 20 metro areas are shown.

TOP 20 Metro Areas For Price Appreciation
MSA National Ranking 1- Yrs. Qtr. 5-Yr.
Wenatchee, WA 1 23.54 5.09 79.17
Provo-Orem, UT 2 18.21 3.48 49.32
Salt Lake City, UT 3 16.03 2.90 58.22
Ogden-Clearfield, UT 4 15.22 3.19 40.41
Grand Junction, CO 5 14.30 3.80 65.24
Longview, WA 6 13.60 3.75 59.25
El Paso, TX 7 12.49 3.08 55.39
Salem, OR 8 11.98 2.72 58.48
Mobile, AL 9 11.26 4.77 44.64
Asheville, NC 10 10.90 1.20 55.53
Austin-Round Rock, TX 11 10.76 2.87 29.58
Lynchburg VA 12 10.65 1.2 48.25
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 13 10.62 3.41 32.50
Gulfport-Biloxi, MS 14 10.05 -0.96 53.41
Myrtle Beach-Conway-N. Myrtle Beach, SC 15 9.98 .075 68.62
Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA 16 9.92 1.62 42.20
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (MSAD) 17 9.89 1.80 66.79
San Antonio, TX 18 9.63 1.52 39.70
Tacoma, WA (MSAD) 19 9.34 1.23 75.58
Spokane, WA 20 9.30 1.35 68.51


Bottom 20 Metro Areas For Price Appreciation

MSA National Ranking 1-Yr. Qtr. 5-Yr.
Bay City, MI 268 -4.21 -3.35 9.56
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA 269 -4.24 -2.08 73.64
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 270 -4.31 -1.39 86.2
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA 271 -4.4 -1.22 63.98
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL (MSAD) 272 -4.51 -2.46 100.27
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA 273 -4.58 0.16 51.63
Port St. Lucie, FL 274 -4.59 -3.13 99.47
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 275 -5.33 -1.88 97.58
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 275 -4.64 -1.76 97.35
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 277 -5.35 -1.59 54.1
RENO-SPARKS, NV 278 -5.37 -2.43 79.19
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA 279 -6.07 -2.25 69.59
Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 280 -6.19 -3.22 87.95
Yuba City, CA 281 -6.29 -3.92 88
Modesto, CA 282 -6.51 -2.58 84.62
Salinas, CA 283 -6.95 -3.07 80.7
Punta Gorda, FL 284 -7.12 -2.96 84.97
Stockton, CA 285 -7.2 -2.84 77.99
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA 286 -8.1 -4.06 69.16
Merced, CA 287 -8.65 -3.75 89.3

 

[ESRBob]

OFHEO has a great data series. It only tracks sales of the same exact home over time, which is a lot better for comparing apple and apples. The only question we've been able to throw up on this one is whether it accounts for home improvements and additions in the same home -- they probably check square footage and dump out any that changed, but home improvements happen, especially on homes that sell, so these appreciation numbers may be a bit higher than the true appreciation of the core home and land itself.

 

[twaddle]

Case/Shiller is slightly better in that regard:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/sp...hiller_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

But both of them lag the market by several months, so they're kind of backward looking.