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Recycles dryer sheets
There are so many uncertainties with regard to the future that it's difficult to know how to plan.
Even the worst case scenario in FIRECalc may not be bad enough to reflect what the future may hold.
U.S. dollar index is at new lows and heading lower. Interest rates held artificially low into the foreseeable future. Inflation and higher taxes almost certain.
I've had a large percentage of my savings in gold and gold funds since 2001, and the rest in foreign currencies. At that time it was easy to foresee what was going to happen economically. It's much more difficult now, the question being, how much worse will it get?
Hate to sound pessimistic, but I'm sure others have similar concerns. I'm skeptical of the various asset allocation models I've seen (e.g., X% stocks, Y% bonds). What happens if both go bad?
The strategy I'm considering is to cash in gold and gold funds, hold on to the cash, and then invest in bonds when interest rates inevitably rise. Didn't 30 year bonds hit 15% back in the late 70s or early 80s? At some point, especially when inflation kicks in, I'd expect interest rates would have to move up significantly.
All thoughts appreciated!
Even the worst case scenario in FIRECalc may not be bad enough to reflect what the future may hold.
U.S. dollar index is at new lows and heading lower. Interest rates held artificially low into the foreseeable future. Inflation and higher taxes almost certain.
I've had a large percentage of my savings in gold and gold funds since 2001, and the rest in foreign currencies. At that time it was easy to foresee what was going to happen economically. It's much more difficult now, the question being, how much worse will it get?
Hate to sound pessimistic, but I'm sure others have similar concerns. I'm skeptical of the various asset allocation models I've seen (e.g., X% stocks, Y% bonds). What happens if both go bad?
The strategy I'm considering is to cash in gold and gold funds, hold on to the cash, and then invest in bonds when interest rates inevitably rise. Didn't 30 year bonds hit 15% back in the late 70s or early 80s? At some point, especially when inflation kicks in, I'd expect interest rates would have to move up significantly.
All thoughts appreciated!