Super Committee Jeopardy

[eytonxav]

Any guesses on where the DOW will end up if the Super Committee fails to come up with a substantive deficit reduction plan? My guess is about 9500

 

[ziggy29]

I was imagining some politician saying "I'll have deficit reduction for $1200, Alex"...

 

[ripper1]

Any guesses on where the DOW will end up if the Super Committee fails to come up with a substantive deficit reduction plan? My guess is about 9500

Sounds like a buying opportunity.

 

[HFWR]

I have no idea what the Dow will do, beyond go up and down...

As for the committee, not expecting much if anything to emerge. I think the participants were chosen for their partisanship, and given the false dichotomy that is our politics these days, it seems unlikely we'll get much more than stalemate...

I'd like to be wrong, though.

 

[Texas Proud]

I don't think any major thing will happen... not many people thought they could come to an agreement and the already agreed cuts would happen... for awhile there, I was thinking they might actually come to an agreement, but my faith is being restored....


Now, the question is what will happen if we fail to cut $4 TRILLION from the budget over the next 10 years.... and IMO it needs to be $9 trillion..

 

[ripper1]

I have no idea what the Dow will do, beyond go up and down...

As for the committee, not expecting much if anything to emerge. I think the participants were chosen for their partisanship, and given the false dichotomy that is our politics these days, it seems unlikely we'll get much more than stalemate...

I'd like to be wrong, though.

We have the best government money can buy.

 

[pb4uski]

.....

Now, the question is what will happen if we fail to cut $4 TRILLION from the budget over the next 10 years.... and IMO it needs to be $9 trillion..

I'm hoping that they realize the political fallout that would accompany not striking a deal and that their cushy jobs would be in peril. If they fail to strike a deal and the stock market and economy go in the tank as a result there will be an even madder electorate that will (hopefully) crucify any incumbent at the polls in November of 2012.

 

[Texas Proud]

I'm hoping that they realize the political fallout that would accompany not striking a deal and that their cushy jobs would be in peril. If they fail to strike a deal and the stock market and economy go in the tank as a result there will be an even madder electorate that will (hopefully) crucify any incumbent at the polls in November of 2012.

I have not looked, but I would bet money that the people on the committe do not have to worry about getting re-elected...

You don't want to put your 'weak' players in this game....

I also think that calculus is that Obama and the dems will be blamed more than the repubs, so they can pick up seats and do more of what they want in a couple of years...


Another possibility is that after these mandatory cuts go into effect, there will be some votes to restore some of them...

 

[Packman]

Not only will the USA fail to be able to agree on a debt reduction plan, Greece and Italy will not do very well either.

 

[pb4uski]

I have not looked, but I would bet money that the people on the committe do not have to worry about getting re-elected...

You don't want to put your 'weak' players in this game....

I also think that calculus is that Obama and the dems will be blamed more than the repubs, so they can pick up seats and do more of what they want in a couple of years...


Another possibility is that after these mandatory cuts go into effect, there will be some votes to restore some of them...

None of the senators on the committee will be up for reelection in 2012, but all house members are. But the senators will be putting their colleagues in play if they don't strike a deal.

 

[eridanus]

Congress will either extend the deadline or wipe out the "automatic" cuts.

 

[jebmke]

Congress will either extend the deadline or wipe out the "automatic" cuts.

I agree. I suspect that investors have discounted any likelihood of an agreement yet this quarter. However, there is enough other silliness in the market that anything goes.

 

[pb4uski]

Congress will either extend the deadline or wipe out the "automatic" cuts.

If so, will Moody's or Fitch then be forced to downgrade and we get to start all over again?

 

[chinaco]

Look at the PIIGS. Their issues are politically related. So are the countries providing the Euro Bailout.

The solution is going to be: GWB tax cut sunset on the tax side. That gets the people who signed up with Grover Norquist off the hook on their pledge. The sad part is they all know it and are letting the drama play out for appearances.

For spending cuts (related to the super committee recommendation).... It may turn out that only part of the cuts are identified (specifically) by the super committed and the remaining cuts are across the board!

The rest of it will happen after the election.

 

[obgyn65]

My thoughts exactly.

As for the committee, not expecting much if anything to emerge. I think the participants were chosen for their partisanship, and given the false dichotomy that is our politics these days, it seems unlikely we'll get much more than stalemate...

 

[eytonxav]

My thoughts exactly.

Before the super committee was formed, I was hoping they would appoint moderates from both sides. Silly me

 

[MichaelB]

I don't think we'll get a stalemate or a solution, but we will get something that no one can understand, everyone will see differently, and could best be used to fertilize most pastures.

 

[REWahoo]

I don't think we'll get a stalemate or a solution, but we will get something that no one can understand, everyone will see differently, and could best be used to fertilize most pastures.

And both parties will blame the other for the outcome.

 

[MichaelB]

And both parties will blame the other for the outcome.

Right. Blame each other for producing fertilizer but take credit for growing the produce...

 

[RHLnFLA]

Before the super committee was formed, I was hoping they would appoint moderates from both sides. Silly me

Should have had one party pick the other party's participants. Or at least one or two of the players from the other party. Maybe we would have ended up with a couple of moderates.

I'll cut the pie into two pieces but you have first choice of which piece you want.

That would have kept it fair(er).

 

[TromboneAl]

But 10 days before their deadline, members of the so-called congressional "super committee" created to forge a deficit reduction deal indicated Sunday that they remain hung up on basic issues of tax and entitlement reform that have previously stymied agreement.

 

[MichaelB]

But 10 days before their deadline, members of the so-called congressional "super committee" created to forge a deficit reduction deal indicated Sunday that they remain hung up on basic issues of tax and entitlement reform that have previously stymied agreement.

Just so it's not a naked link,

Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the panel's Republican co-chair, told CNN's "State of the Union" that the only solution possible might be a two-step process in which the bipartisan committee sets a figure for increased tax revenue that congressional committees would then implement through legislation.

It is probably better that they get hung up on basic issues. I'd hate to think they could agree on the basic stuff but then trip over minor details.

 

[HFWR]

Just so it's not a naked link.

And what's wrong with naked?

[-]And, please, no Kathy Bates hot tubs pics...[/-]

I was going to comment about the "silly season" being upon us, but these days the silly season never seems to end.

There haven't been that many "landslide" elections, and the populace is relatively evenly divided between so-called conservatives and liberals, so rather than one party or the other assuming they have some sort of blank-check mandate, why not find some sort of common/middle ground?

Which brings us back to the perpetual silly season...

 

[TromboneAl]

The situation is often phrased like this: "If they fail to agree, automatic across-the-board cuts that no one wants will be enacted."

Would these automatic cuts really be that bad?

 

[HFWR]

The situation is often phrased like this: "If they fail to agree, automatic across-the-board cuts that no one wants will be enacted."

Would these automatic cuts really be that bad?

Only to those protecting their "turf"...