There is plenty of hard data, certainly enough to make credible comparisons and present informed analysis. Estimates of premium prices, however, need to include basic elements such as levels of coverage, actuarial value and cost sharing. Otherwise the numbers used (and conclusions) have little meaning. The data is out there and available today, but it's not being used. That's why I look at sources such as KFF.
If there's plenty of reliable "hard data" out there I, (along with many, many pundits from both Parties), have yet to find it.
KFF states a result run in their HI "Subsidy Calculator" is NOT definitive, but only "..illustrates how families in varying circumstances MAY (emphasis added) be affected by the tax credits and limits on age rating included in the law". Premiums noted by KFF are CBO estimates, not actual premium prices. This caveat appears in Notes section below the results after you run a scenario in the KFF calculator.
Subsidy Calculator | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Clarity is also lacking in Gov't's own ACA website, (Healthcare.gov). Follow the site to ' Health Insurance Basics..Your Insurance Company and Costs of Coverage'. There is a search function for rate increase filings in any state you select, (BTW-most rate reviews are already completed). We all know there will only be 3 basic policy levels under ACA- Bronze, Silver, & Gold. But there is still a big range of rate increases listed for private carries in most states. I have not run searches for all 50 individual states, but for Midwest states the increases for 2014 range from ~10-40+% ...for largely the same specific HI products (policies) offered in 2012. And as referenced earlier, it is still not clear that enough big carriers will indeed enter the Exchange market to provide much-needed price competition. From what I hear this is NOT a 'negotiating tactic' by carriers but deliberate corporate decisions to stay out until the dust settles. Even if it means remaining on sidelines for 2014 Exchanges. And, IIRC, HHS has still not yet issued final interpretive reg's on precisely how certain critical issues will be implemented (e.g.actual Medical Loss Ratio calculation).
Your Insurance Company & Costs of Coverage | CompanyProfiles.Healthcare.gov
As many have reported, the gross costs of HI coverage under ACA continue to be raised by CBO with each new analysis.
http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/03-13-Coverage Estimates.pdf
Curiously,this CBO report projects increases in Medicaid/CHIP spending, but decrease in subsidies due to DEcrease in private HI premiums (which is contrary to data from Healthcare.gov noted above).
Obviously ACA is the law & unlikely to be repealed. IMHO- all have an interest in as smooth a transition as possible- if only because the health of millions is potentially at stake. Unfortunately, today no one seems able to even ballpark what a specific person or family will pay for their 2014 HI under their state Exchange (exc for MA which already has an approved Exchange). This uncertainty makes it easy for pundits to keep selling headline-grabbing editorials on the subject
But very difficult for ER's to budget accurately for HI costs