Hurricane Irma

[rayinpenn]

The last time I spoke to brother Paulinkeywest he said I'm not leaving. Foolish reasons like I may not be able to get back on for a week. I know you can't tell a 60 year old what to do. Then a few minutes ago and right now there discussing how it may not be a survivable event.

I'm dying here but I must come to grips with the fact that I can't control everything... my sister said poor dog (his dog probably would make the right choice)

 

[soupcxan]

In addition was the place framed with screws rather than nails which makes for a stronger structure as it takes a lot more to pull a long screw out than a nail.

Wrong. Screws will shear off while nails will bend and flex with the pressure. Nails are far superior for this while screws will fail catastrophically.

 

[Texas Proud]

Here's a live cam of Duval Street - see for yourself. Live Duval Street

Edit to add - live cam of the highway getting out of Key West http://www.a1aweather.com/florida-keys.php

Looks like everyone is either gone or hunkered down.

LOL... just pulled up the camera and saw 3 people riding bicycles in front of Sloppy Joes....

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

From that Duval street camera it looks like its already raining. Is this the "oh it rains every day In Florida". or is Irma already here?

 

[MRG]

LOL... just pulled up the camera and saw 3 people riding bicycles in front of Sloppy Joes....

I kinda expected Sloppy Joes to be open! With a crowd drinking. Looks like another round of Hurricane specials all around!

Sadly many may try to ride this out. Hopefully they are right.

 

[OnIslandTime]

We don't live there yet, but we own our retirement dream house on Sanibel Island. It is a concrete block ground level house (built in the 70's so obviously not built to new codes) and like bigcmagor we spend a boatload of money to put in impact windows and doors when we bought it. We've watched the predicted track of Irma since last week and as of today we are on the storm surge list (right now it looks to be about 3 feet, but the predicted range is 8 to 12 feet) and the eye looks like it will pass right over our house. The island is also under a mandatory evacuation.

Today at work friends were asking if I was upset/nervous; I think they were expecting me to be in a panic. I shrugged and said, "The place is locked down, my insurance is paid up, my family and (most of our) friend are all safe, and I can't change the weather. Nothing to do now, but watch, wait and pray."

We owned a condo there when Hurricane Charley blew thru. He was supposed to be a Cat 1 heading to Tampa, but jumped to a Cat 4 and took a hard right turn at Sanibel/Captiva and wound up heading up the Caloosahatchee River. Our condo was ok, but the building got a new roof (it stayed on, it was just torn up) and a new elevator. Because Charley took a turn and didn't hit at high tide, there was no storm surge to speak of. We had friends that did not evacuate for that storm and we read in the local papers from down there that just before it was a direct hit, it took a teeny jog to the north (my DH was watching live coverage and remembered the weather guys talking about it). The local papers a few weeks later said that if it had not taken that little jog that "very few structures on the island would have withstood the storm and none of the people who stayed would have survived". We worry that the same friends have not evacuated and that they may not be so lucky this time. DH texted them yesterday just letting them know we're thinking of them and and to stay safe..hasn't heard anything. They are the sort of people who are probably helping everybody else get boarded up, etc, so I don't expect to hear from them until the storm has passed.

Terrible thing for so many folks...still hopeful that it'll shoot thru and burn itself out in the gulf somewhere.

 

[BigNick]

From that Duval street camera it looks like its already raining. Is this the "oh it rains every day In Florida". or is Irma already here?

Still raining right now (6:40 am local time). Quite a puddle forming at the intersection. This is rather compelling viewing, for some strange reason.

The eye of the hurricane is about 200km away, over the north coast of Cuba. Apparently it's expected to make a right turn towards Florida, although I'm not sure how they forecast that. If it continues on its past track it will just cross the Gulf of Mexico...

 

[Sittinginthesun]

Path now looks to nail Marco Island, Naples, Fort Myers and up to Tampa all along the west coast.

 

[MichaelB]

Path now looks to nail Marco Island, Naples, Fort Myers and up to Tampa all along the west coast.

An unexpected shift that means a much different population is now in harms way.

 

[GrayHare]

The later Irma makes the turn the more westward landfall will be. It would ironic if it comes ashore in the panhandle or Alabama, places many Floridians evacuated to.

 

[MichaelB]

The later Irma makes the turn the more westward landfall will be. It would ironic if it comes ashore in the panhandle or Alabama, places many Floridians evacuated to.

Wouldn't be the first time that people have evacuated smack into the eventual path. That's one big reason it is so frustratingly difficult to deal with these, and why Imoldernu is so frustrated. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/dumbing-down-the-weather-news-88377.html#post1934951

 

[Lisa99]

We moved to Florida 2 months ago. We're in The Villages so won't be as bad as on the coast. Our house is brand new with 6" poured concrete walls and the latest in building codes so we feel safe. We're also somewhat elevated so flooding shouldn't be an issue.

That said we have lots of water, batteries, flashlights and peanut butter and bread for the masses.

 

[BigNick]

The awnings on the store across the street from Sloppy Joe's bar on Duval Street are beginning to flap in the wind, as are the pieces of paper that have been scotch-taped to the front of Sloppy Joe's.

 

[NW-Bound]

In many countries homes are built with brick walls, and the floors between stories are poured concrete. That would not be safe in earthquake countries, but may stand up well to the wind.

 

[MichaelB]

Another recorded call from Broward County emergency. They've now declared a tornado warning through late tonight, and a curfew beginning at 4 this afternoon. Probably a smart move. Wilma, back in '05, left all of S. Fl without power for 2 weeks, and after the event analysis showed the damage was not from the hurricane but a series of tornadoes that it produced.

 

[Huston55]

We moved to Florida 2 months ago. We're in The Villages so won't be as bad as on the coast. Our house is brand new with 6" poured concrete walls and the latest in building codes so we feel safe. We're also somewhat elevated so flooding shouldn't be an issue.

That said we have lots of water, batteries, flashlights and peanut butter and bread for the masses.

We have friends there who've not responded to emails.

Are most Villages residents riding it out in place?

 

[socca]

So...the billion dollar (literally) question is whether Irma turns north early (goes up the east coast), middle (goes up the center of the Florida peninsula), or late (goes up the west coast).

Maybe I need to add two more options:
(4) very late turn north - stays offshore in the Gulf
(5) doesn't turn north at all

So far, the path Irma has actually taken doesn't match the consensus estimate of a few days ago. I didn't hear any experts predict that Irma was going to stall on the coast of Cuba and weaken to Cat 3. Does Irma have any more surprises up her sleeve?

 

[Fermion]

It could spin into the gulf and hit Houston again...

 

[haha]

In many countries homes are built with brick walls, and the floors between stories are poured concrete. That would not be safe in earthquake countries, but may stand up well to the wind.

With today's codes brick walls are veneered onto the structure, just like any other siding. Maybe falling brick would present risks to those walking below in a quake, but the structure of reinforced concrete is very strong up to certain moderate heights. Above these, regular skyscraper construction of a steel frame and panels hanging from this is usually found in earthquake country.

A modern skyscraper is very good in wind.

Japan is probably top of the heap in quality earthquake codes and construction.

For SFH or garden apartments normal wood studs with plywood or osb panels to give torsional stability are very good. They sure burn though.

Ha

 

[easysurfer]

Sorry if this was already posted.

Live cams if you want to keep an eye on Florida storms:

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/fortlauderdale/marina/?cam=lauderdalemarina

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/lauderdalebythesea/?cam=windjammer

 

[Aerides]

We have friends there who've not responded to emails.

Are most Villages residents riding it out in place?

Based on where that's located, it would be unnecessary for them to evacuate based on current conditions.

 

[meierlde]

The general rule on the evacuations in Florida seems to be if your in an area that can get storm surge evacuate, if not don't. Note for example Miami has 5 evacuation zones depending on the height of the storm surge, and are fully evacuating 2 of them (A and B and C) plus folks in mobile homes and on barrier islands.

 

[W2R]

Maybe I am just looking for this too intently.... but as of the latest updated position, I think maybe it might be just barely starting the turn. Or thinking about just barely starting the turn. I added a straight line to the NHC graphic.

(EDITED TO ADD: One of our local meteorologists, Bob Breck, posted 3 minutes ago on his blog that the turn has started.)

 

[Moemg]

Trying to evacuate the whole state has been crazy . All the east coast people moved over to the west coast and now the west coast has no where to go . We are going more inland since we live on the water to a hotel that I would never go to except it is available . If it is truly awful we will go to my SO's sons house .

 

[rayinpenn]

Had an unexpected video chat with my brother PaulinKeyWest sitting in the key west high school. I thought I'd share his comments
- The bleachers are rock hard and I'm sore (not verbatim)
- There are some dogs not getting along
- A fellow took off his clothes ran around (kids were present) and had to be rounded up by the police
- a woman came over and asked if he would "join us" he politely asked what would I be joining you with. Praying to some unfamiliar deity for the storm to abate... "I'll join you later"

I hope my brother and all those there are alive tomorrow to laugh about all this...