Hurricane "Ian" may be heading for us here in Florida

[Mark1]

..and besides Andrew haven't seen a storm surge in more than 50 years.

If the risk is small then private insurance should handle this situation nicely.

Something tells me, FL will be coming to the federal government shortly for assistance in subsidizing home owner insurance.

 

[SecondAttempt]

If the system were that you get one hand out from the government, but then you have to move, I think that would mitigate the effect on current home values. If you want to stay, rely on your own insurance and don't take the government's money. In economic terms, this is properly internalizing the externalities so that the price will be correct.

A few years ago they tried to raised flood insurance premiums to rates that match expected payouts. But the Congress was pressured to limit increases to 18% per year.

I would limit flood claims to once a lifetime. Once you make a claim, that's it. If you choose to stay then the taxpayers are never going to bail you out again on that or any other property.

It boggles my mind how we ignore science in this country and then are surprised when the predictable happens. Barrier islands and coastal wetlands are known to significantly mitigate hurricane damage. And yet, we let people buy the land, clear vegetation, build on it, then expect the rest of us to pay for their stupidity.

I'm not talking about the vast majority of people who just bought a house and are now enduring hardship. I'm talking more about the politicians that allow this crap.

 

[SecondAttempt]

But if we target floods/hurricanes, then do we also include Fires (much of CA), Tornado Alley (the midwest) - and whatever other repeat-disaster-prone areas there are?

The difference is that flood insurance is taxpayer subsizied. Fire and tornado insurance are a private market and insurers can adjust rates as needed.

I am not opposed to FEMA or the federal government helping out with recovery and cleanup efforts. But I don't think the government should be in the insurance business.

 

[SecondAttempt]

Taking this thought further, should people be allowed to live in areas prone to earthquakes or other natural disasters?

Millions of people live in these areas now. Some are densely populated urban areas. Should they all be relocated?

These are difficult issues with no easy answers.

I don't subsidize earthquake insurance. I am forced to subsidize flood insurance. There is a huge difference.

 

[mpeirce]

The difference is that flood insurance is taxpayer subsizied. Fire and tornado insurance are a private market and insurers can adjust rates as needed.

I am not opposed to FEMA or the federal government helping out with recovery and cleanup efforts. But I don't think the government should be in the insurance business.

There is private flood insurance available - at least here in Ohio, maybe not in Florida. It’s a better deal than the government insurance.

 

[SecondAttempt]

There is private flood insurance available - at least here in Ohio, maybe not in Florida. It’s a better deal than the government insurance.

And I am completely fine with private flood insurance.

 

[street]

Private insurers can do as they please, but I would suggest that receipt of government assistance be conditioned on moving out of the danger zone. Up here in my town, a bunch of houses that were built right down on the beach were

I agree with that. The only way to minimize damage is to not allow building back.

Pay for loss and move on.

 

[dm]

Well we just got our internet connection back so yay. We left before the storm, but the eye passed over our house.

Like most our house was built to newer standards, but still had some damage. But with wind deductible being $10,000 we probably will be just short of needing insurance.

As to fema flood insurance, thankfully we didn’t get water into the house. The max insurance you are allowed to purchase is $250,000. That amount has not been raised in years. And as to rebuilding in a flood plain, I get a report from fema every year stating that I’ve never filled a claim, so they are evidently keeping track. And if you have a certain amount of damage you have to rebuild to the current building standards.

We were much more fortunate than most. We were watching the news from a hotel room in Alabama. I was expecting my boat to be gone, the roof and pool cage totaled, and lots of other damage.

Our pool cage will need some repair, some roof tiles will need to be replaced, and some soffit. A window in the garage broke, even behind a hurricane shutter, food spoiled, and some other small stuff.

 

[dm]

I agree with that. The only way to minimize damage is to not allow building back.

Pay for loss and move on.

Where does everyone move to that there is no risk?

 

[dm]

And I know several that self insure, it’s not like insurance is cheap down here. Mine has doubled in the last three years and I expect that trend to continue.

 

[JoeWras]

Watch the weather very carefully right now

To my FL and southeast friends, please watch the hurricane forecast very carefully. Yes, as of today (November 6), there is no tropical storm. Yet, many of the models are converging on an idea of an Andrew-like storm that pops up fast and moves directly West in the East coast of FL in the Wed to Fri timeframe.

Models are just models, but please be aware.

My disaster response team and I were supposed to go to Ft. Meyers today, but we're all too broken down from our previous work to do it. Turns out if this pops up, we'd probably turn around when we got there anyway.

GFS model as of now: https://weatherstreet.com/models/gfs-slp-clouds-precip-forecast.php

Screenshot. Remember, just a model, not reality. Be prepared. This may not happen:

 

[NW-Bound]

Where does everyone move to that there is no risk?

True. We have no natural disasters here in the Southwest such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, snow storms, tsunamis. But there's that pestering drought.

Perhaps people should just rebuild small homes that can be made tougher to stand up against future hurricanes. Or build cheap ones that can be disposable.

 

[Irishgirlyc58]

True. We have no natural disasters here in the Southwest such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, snow storms, tsunamis. But there's that pestering drought.

Perhaps people should just rebuild small homes that can be made tougher to stand up against future hurricanes. Or build cheap ones that can be disposable.

No floods?

 

[NW-Bound]

Flood here in AZ? It does not even rain.

Oh, some small rural areas get flooded after a rare rain, but these are close to a dry wash that gets heavy run-off from upstream.

 

[JoeWras]

Flooding in Arizona, courtesy of the National Weather Service.

https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-states-az

Spring, 1978
As a result, a huge volume of water rushed down the normally dry Salt River bed and became a raging torrent through the Phoenix area and western Maricopa County. Volume at the peak was 138,000 cubic feet per second on March 2. In the Phoenix area, approaches to eight street bridges were washed away, leaving only three intact to handle the daily movement of tens of thousands of vehicles. Traffic was backed up for miles during the rush hours for about a week until the flow of water was contained in the reservoirs and approaches were filled back in on some of the crossings. The water broke about 2,000 feet of the east end of the main runway at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport into large chunks and damaged airport radio and radar facilities. Thousands of homes were damaged and more than 100 homes were destroyed.

 

[NW-Bound]

Flooding in Arizona, courtesy of the National Weather Service.

https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-states-az

^^^ Hah hah hah...

I was living here then. Yes, the Salt River was a mile wide or something like that. It cut the metropolitan Phoenix in half, and there were only 3 bridges left to connect the east and west parts. And unfortunately, I had to go cross town to get to work.

But some people blamed the problem on the Salt River Project, who managed the reservoir system on the Salt River watershed. I don't remember the details, but they said the SRP did not discharge the water gradually beforehand. They wanted to be sure that there would be enough water in the reservoirs for summer use. When heavy rain came, they had to discharge A LOT to make room, and hence the problem.

It was called the 100-Year Flood. I forgot to buy a T-shirt to commemorate this event.

Ever since, there was no water flowing in the Salt River, the part that goes through Phoenix. I repeat, none. Water was diverted from the lowest reservoir to go to the distribution channels. There was no spare water to let flow down the river bed, which has been bone dry for the last few decades.

Phoenix has grown so much since then, every drop was spoken for. There's little chance of water even getting wasted down the Salt River to recharge the aquifer under the desert soil, let alone causing a flood.

But if we had enough rain to cause a flood, a lot of people, myself included, will be dancin'. Bring on the rain, please.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't remember the flood in 1978, or 1979, but the one that cut Phoenix in half was in January 1980.

See: History Adventuring: Living through the 100-year flood in Tempe, Arizona 1980

 

[Irishgirlyc58]

I thought AZ got flooding during-is it monsoon season?
I’m in Northern California and we flooded bigly in 1986 which was technically a drought year. [emoji2356]

What about fires? I’m lucky to live in a “low” fire risk area but I know anything is possible.

 

[bigcmagor]

To my FL and southeast friends, please watch the hurricane forecast very carefully. Yes, as of today (November 6), there is no tropical storm. Yet, many of the models are converging on an idea of an Andrew-like storm that pops up fast and moves directly West in the East coast of FL in the Wed to Fri timeframe.

Models are just models, but please be aware.

My disaster response team and I were supposed to go to Ft. Meyers today, but we're all too broken down from our previous work to do it. Turns out if this pops up, we'd probably turn around when we got there anyway.

GFS model as of now: https://weatherstreet.com/models/gfs-slp-clouds-precip-forecast.php

Screenshot. Remember, just a model, not reality. Be prepared. This may not happen:

After spending the last five weeks picking up the pieces after Ian, this is too much to contemplate.

 

[NW-Bound]

I thought AZ got flooding during-is it monsoon season?
I’m in Northern California and we flooded bigly in 1986 which was technically a drought year. [emoji2356]

What about fires? I’m lucky to live in a “low” fire risk area but I know anything is possible.

As mentioned earlier, the 100-Year Flood of 1980 happened in the winter. Some fluke storms.

Monsoon rains in late summer often bring sudden water rushing down normally dry beds of desert washes. These are unpredictable and lethal to hikers who get caught in them. However, these are not the kind of flood that open the perennially dry Salt River to a mile wide, as happened in January 1980.

Regarding wild fires, yes, there have been forest fires up in the AZ high country, where I have my 2nd home. These areas are nowhere as populated as the metropolitan Phoenix or Tucson. The property destruction and casualty number are insignificant compared to wild fires in other states.

 

[JoeWras]

The NWS hasn't come out with a new opinion on the possible storm, yet. However, the models are converging more on a SE FL hit. Please follow local news and you can also geek out here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#98L

As for flooding, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc... It is a complex topic that many people try to distill to a simple issue, and then inject it into political discussions.

We all live on this little blue-green ball covered by this thin coating of atmosphere that we are abusing, and we're all vulnerable to *something*. Nobody is safe. It has always been that way.

Climate change is one issue. But one needs to study historical weather events to get an appreciation for smaller cycles. Cycles that go on 2, 10, 30, 200, 10k and 100k year periods. There was good work being done on a lot of that until it became "all climate, all the time," and it is really a damn shame. There's little benefit to studying shorter cycles now because you get defunded and ignored by the world for having the audacity to think outside of The One Issue.

It would be in our best interest to understand the 10k to 100k cycle of glaciation. There still are theories, but it is somewhat a dead topic these days. We're not that far away from glacier times. The Great Lakes are ephemeral on the scale of time, a mere blip. They WILL go away or get iced over, no matter what we do with our carbon belching. After I learned of the enormity of time when I was studying astronomy (age 12), I would dig up sand in my back yard (2 miles away from Lake Michigan) and wonder what it was like a mere 15,000 years before, when my back yard was the shore of the nascent "Lake Chicago", with the ice sheet in view a few miles north. What an amazing sight that must have been! But poof! It will all be gone soon no matter what.

As for 30 year cycles: this is well known in hurricane studies. There is an approximate 30 to 50 year cycle of activity that waxes and wanes among the various basins. Florida was particularly vulnerable from the 20s through the 50s. And then things calmed down, until about 2000. We're currently probably at the end of this cycle, but who knows? Can't study it because the focus is instead on The One Thing.

 

[W2R]

NHC says 90% chance of developing in 5 days, 80% in 48 hours:

 

[Montecfo]

To my FL and southeast friends, please watch the hurricane forecast very carefully. Yes, as of today (November 6), there is no tropical storm. Yet, many of the models are converging on an idea of an Andrew-like storm that pops up fast and moves directly West in the East coast of FL in the Wed to Fri timeframe.

Models are just models, but please be aware.

My disaster response team and I were supposed to go to Ft. Meyers today, but we're all too broken down from our previous work to do it. Turns out if this pops up, we'd probably turn around when we got there anyway.

GFS model as of now: https://weatherstreet.com/models/gfs-slp-clouds-precip-forecast.php

Screenshot. Remember, just a model, not reality. Be prepared. This may not happen:

Andrew-like in what way?

Andrew made US landfall as a Cat 5 hurricane, an exceedingly rare occurrence.

i see the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm.

 

[Dtail]

NHC says 90% chance of developing in 5 days, 80% in 48 hours:

Could be heading for Tampa, then back across FLA.
Currently, highest prediction is a Cat 1, so we will see.

 

[JoeWras]

Andrew-like in what way?

Where it develops and the path it takes until landfall. Andrew came up very fast and didn't have a long track.

Sorry to alarm, I'm not saying it is a cat 5. I should have been clearer.

Latest official forecast doesn't even bring it to cat 1. The highest I've seen is cat 2 by one forecaster.