OK so let me see if I have this right?
- Tesla makes great EVs (Model 3 yet to be proven?)
- Tesla has interesting strategies such as free charging stations, better battery technologies
- Tesla has negotiated government subsidies for EVs (soon to end)
- there are issues with Tesla repairs out of warranty (skills, parts availability, costs)
- there are severe issues with management (high turnover, unstable CEO)
- Tesla has problems with managing the public market (SEC investigation)
- Tesla will run out of money within a year needing billions (at what price)
- there is a growing need for a facelift of existing models
- the resale market for Tesla models (residual values) is largely unknown
- the battery life/replacement cost/availability is not well-known
- does the software driven auto suffer inevitable issues as it matures
- there is growing competition from traditional vendors in hybrids
- the existing electrical grid has known limitations for widespread EV acceptance
Pretty much true. All of it must be weighing down the stock, yet many say the stock is overvalued! Imagine a 2019 when Tesla will have made progress on all of the headwinds you have addressed while introducing a new Model Y SUV and still having a two year jump on any serious competition in the battery/charging arena.
Are you impressed with any of the EV offerings from the other car makers? Do you really think hybrids will be more than a short-term solution while the EV market develops? Why have a hybrid if the range and charging issues become a non-factor in the buying decision?
Regarding electric generation; this administration is very friendly to new gas and coal electric generation. I think the transition to highly efficient gas powered plants is the near-term solution and they will be permitted and built, as needed, over the next several years. Eventually RE will become a reality, but that may be decades away. Individual states may be less friendly, but they will be forced to get the power somewhere. In my state (WA) we have cheap hydro electric. We actually export electricity.
One thing you miss (perhaps the most relevant) is that the world is in an accelerating process of switching to EVs from ICEs. However many faults Tesla may have they are still the dominant leader in this transition and in new battery tech (with Panasonic). If they maintain the current trajectory they will continue to be.
This is a relatively new tech. Of course there will be many issues to work through during the transition and beyond. This is true for all of the manufacturers, not just Tesla. The question isn't how much Tesla is struggling to grow, the question is can anyone do better in the near future. I will continue to buy Tesla unless the balance shifts.
Last edited: