Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

No if you buy a $100,000 car for $70,000 and get the government to pay $7,500 of that cost in US, or in the EU to not pay any extremely burdensome car taxes you will be pretty happy, so owners are good with the product. This is exactly my problem with Tesla as Musk formed, it is designed to make great cars to be the impetus for government action to fund his vision of TESLA running the electric infrastructure of the world. This is not a business plan this is a long term dream and Musk views the stock market as a necessary short term evil to implement his plan, he is totally unconcerned about his shareholders other than as founders of a global vision. This is why he took in Solar City even though it was bankrupt and made no sense from a financial view, he needs to keep together the whole in order to expand when he can through government funding.

I see Tesla spiked today to 307 on a single trade before falling to a new daily low of 267 was that you getting in?

Not yet. The hysteria is still flowing.

 

[NW-Bound]

The initial deal was Musk steps down for 2 years. I'd say the deal doesn't get better in that regard, but could be wrong.

The initial offered deal was that Musk to pay a nominal fine, and to step down for 2 years from the chairmanship of the board, and to bring in 2 independent directors. This implies that he would still had the title of CEO. In addition, he would not have to admit wrong doing.

Nope. Musk always had his way, and refused which many pundits said was a good deal. Now, the SEC is seeking to ban him forever from any public company.

He still has SpaceX, but I doubt the other partners in this private company would want him around.

Musk should have known to turn off his smartphone, and concentrate on producing more cars. But as I said, when someone enjoys the limelight so much, he's simply addicted, and wants to see his name on the Web headlines everyday. He has succeeded.

 

[Running_Man]

Best line on Tesla I have heard today on CNBC, talking about board backing Musk in rejecting SEC deal,

"The best autonomous driving Musk has created is the Tesla Board of Directors, they just let Musk run the company on cruise control"

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Tesla owner here. Bought the X in March of this year, liked it so much I bought the 3 in August...sold a Prius to make room

Tesla vehicles are amazing. Quiet. Touchscreens are easy to use. The $10,450 per car credit doesn't hurt.

I'm not long or short the stock. Couldn't tell you whether it goes to 100 or 500 next.

If any of you have questions about the vehicles PM me or ask me here. I'd rather you get correct answers from an actual owner

 

[Texas Proud]

Lots of people were happy with K-Mart too... how'd that work out for the company?

Happy customers is not a defining trait of a profitable and sustainable business. While it's preferable to have happy customers over unhappy customers, that customers are happy doesn't mean the business is solid. If McDonald's sold all their food for a penny, customers would go there and smile a lot more, but the business would fail.

Yea, and on a different note take a look at Comcast and other cable companies.... some of the most hated companies in America and they are doing great financially....

 

[Texas Proud]

The initial offered deal was that Musk to pay a nominal fine, and to step down for 2 years from the chairmanship of the board, and to bring in 2 independent directors. This implies that he would still had the title of CEO. In addition, he would not have to admit wrong doing.

Nope. Musk always had his way, and refused which many pundits said was a good deal. Now, the SEC is seeking to ban him forever from any public company.

He still has SpaceX, but I doubt the other partners in this private company would want him around.

Musk should have known to turn off his smartphone, and concentrate on producing more cars. But as I said, when someone enjoys the limelight so much, he's simply addicted, and wants to see his name on the Web headlines everyday. He has succeeded.

According to CNBC the other part of the terms were he could NOT admit that he was correct... IOW, no admission of guilt or innocence... and the last was the sticking point... he wants to be able to say he is innocent... to me the best he will get going forward is he can get a 'not guilty'... not the same....

 

[ERD50]

.... If any of you have questions about the vehicles PM me or ask me here. I'd rather you get correct answers from an actual owner

I've got one (one question that is, not one Tesla!) - I recently saw some posts somewhere about the maintenance agreements for Teslas. Not sure if prices are set for the 3. IIRC, it was a fixed annual price for years 2-5, and included tire rotations, inspections, brakes if needed (probably not with regen), and I think there was mention of a battery coolant change at year 5 or something?

Anyway, I didn't take the time to sort through all the chaff, if you know the numbers, could you share? Thanks.

- ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Never heard of a maintenance agreement, haven't read about one or heard about it with my discussions with other owners..The car tells you when to bring it in for its annual check-up, thats all I've heard about.

You are correct about the regen...not only do I rarely use the brakes (taking your foot off the accelerator slows the car immediately) the energy used in slowing the vehicle feeds energy to the battery, extending your range...

Not having to deal with fixing transmissions, head gaskets, oil changes, and other engine maladies is quite a relief

 

[Oz investor]

I thought so, but many readers want the direct answer to the question: Tesla is going down the chute or not? And the answer is not easy to find. I never bought Amazon, because I did not think a retailer could become that big. What do I know?

We may have forgotten the OP, who asked if he should buy more Tesla. I don't think he has made another post to this thread since that post #1 in April 2017.

The stock market is weird. People can make money if they guess correctly how the "other guys" value the stock. And Tesla/Musk has so many supporters. This is so interesting to watch, as so many headlines of financial Web sites are about Tesla and Musk.

I have no interest in cars, not just EVs, and I am now hooked.

Amazon is much more than a digital retail player ( it offers immense data storage services and more )

my relative invested in an auto retailer ( which disguised a smart property investor within ) and that 100 year old business has done much better than many of the manufacturers whose products it has sold in those 100 years .

sometimes to wheel doesn't need re-inventing , just sensible adaption will do

Musk has huge plans ( and cash burn ) will established businesses adapt to the change better

 

[aja8888]

Not having to deal with fixing transmissions, head gaskets, oil changes, and other engine maladies is quite a relief

Today's ICE cars will easily go 100K without much more than periodic oil changes. Transmissions are very stout and rarely need any attention. Most ICE cars come with 100K mile drivetrain warranties in case a part fails. We have two in the driveway that have seen nothing but oil changes and air filters for the last 80,000 + miles each. They have never been in the shop and I do the oil and filter tasks. Quite simple.

Tesla's have a suspensions, brakes, door parts, glass and plastic parts that are exactly like ICE cars have and also are subject to wear and failures. I don't buy the "we won't be spending big maintenance and repair dollars on our Tesla's because they are electric" story.

Watch the video a few pages back of the guy tearing his hair out trying to get parts for his Model S.

Things break, admit it. Parts wear out too.

 

[NW-Bound]

This thread is about the stock, not the cars, but as we divert to the latter...

As mentioned earlier, I saw on Youtube an interesting story of a guy who bought two salvaged model S's, one a flooded car and the other a wrecked. He was able to merge the two to get a running car. By selling parts that he did not need, he said his cost of the now running Tesla was less than $7K. He is now trying to do another resurrection of two other Teslas.

It was a lot of work, and this guy's work was amazing. Basically, he had to transplant the electronics and motor from the wrecked car to the flooded chassis. This means he had to tear down both cars, disassembling every wiring harness, every part.

He showed a lot of interesting internal parts of the Tesla. It was a lot more complicated than most people would imagine. As Tesla does not sell replacement parts to third parties, only Tesla service centers can do repairs, and it is expensive once out of warranty.

Because this guy knows the model S inside out, he shows a few cars that were declared totaled while they could be fixed for a few thousand dollars if parts were available. Very interesting even though I do not care about any car, not just Teslas, and I did a bit of binge watching. Cheap entertainment, and I learned a few things.

 

[Oz investor]

but the stock ( company) makes cars

and regardless of how wonderful the car is they still have to make enough of them at a profit to stay in business ( for a long time )

i doubt the government would bailout Tesla ( not enough votes in it )

and of course the repair issue MIGHT impact on customer loyalty ( another important factor for many businesses )

 

[mistermike40]

I have a feeling that you are wrong.

Maybe... time will tell.

FWIW, I think Musk is a visionary, brilliant - possibly a genius - and I hope he succeeds. But he's his own worst enemy. If Tesla succeeds it will be because of him, but also in spite of him.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Today's ICE cars will easily go 100K without much more than periodic oil changes. Transmissions are very stout and rarely need any attention. Most ICE cars come with 100K mile drivetrain warranties in case a part fails. We have two in the driveway that have seen nothing but oil changes and air filters for the last 80,000 + miles each. They have never been in the shop and I do the oil and filter tasks. Quite simple.

Tesla's have a suspensions, brakes, door parts, glass and plastic parts that are exactly like ICE cars have and also are subject to wear and failures. I don't buy the "we won't be spending big maintenance and repair dollars on our Tesla's because they are electric" story.

Watch the video a few pages back of the guy tearing his hair out trying to get parts for his Model S.

Things break, admit it. Parts wear out too.

So far I haven't needed any parts, I'll let you know if I do.

I'd rather have a vehicle that has few parts that will need to be replaced/repaired, rather than many.

When people take their car to Tesla service centers, they give you a Tesla loaner vehicle. Perhaps this is only done in Southern California where I'm at. But I don't know why that fellow you mentioned didn't just go that route

I'm not trying to convince anyone to buy an EV or a Tesla...there will always be some who prefer ICE vehicles. There's 31 flavors at Baskin Robbins for a reason

 

[NW-Bound]

Yep, do a search and you can find video of a Tesla fanboy that is now experiencing issues with his car. No longer under warranty Tesla doesn't care about him any more and repairs are expensive. He's turned to repairing his car, buying parts off the internet. Yep, that sounds like a car I want to drop some $$$$$ to buy.

... Watch the video a few pages back of the guy tearing his hair out trying to get parts for his Model S...

I linked to that video of a CNBC broadcast segment on post #783.

It's here: Post #783.

 

[ERD50]

Never heard of a maintenance agreement, haven't read about one or heard about it with my discussions with other owners..The car tells you when to bring it in for its annual check-up, thats all I've heard about.

You are correct about the regen...not only do I rarely use the brakes (taking your foot off the accelerator slows the car immediately) the energy used in slowing the vehicle feeds energy to the battery, extending your range...

Not having to deal with fixing transmissions, head gaskets, oil changes, and other engine maladies is quite a relief

Today's ICE cars will easily go 100K without much more than periodic oil changes. Transmissions are very stout and rarely need any attention. Most ICE cars come with 100K mile drivetrain warranties in case a part fails. We have two in the driveway that have seen nothing but oil changes and air filters for the last 80,000 + miles each. They have never been in the shop and I do the oil and filter tasks. Quite simple.

Tesla's have a suspensions, brakes, door parts, glass and plastic parts that are exactly like ICE cars have and also are subject to wear and failures. I don't buy the "we won't be spending big maintenance and repair dollars on our Tesla's because they are electric" story.

Watch the video a few pages back of the guy tearing his hair out trying to get parts for his Model S.

Things break, admit it. Parts wear out too.

I did some googling, they seem to have the maint plan behind the "owner" sections, and I'm not sure I'm finding good numbers (maint plan versus extended warranty), but to aja8888's point, I found this:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/maintenance-plan-or-extended-service-agreement.106304/

I opted not to buy the$4,000 extended warranty for my 2013 Model S, primarily due to high milage so would hit 100k at less than 5 years.

Here is my out of pocket repair costs that I had after 50k miles:
12v Battery replaced $195.07
1st Door Handle replaced by Tesla $895.74
2nd door handle replaced (by me DIY) for $1 part cost
L front suspension Control Arm $235.60
Touchscreen bubbles $983 (parts only, labor was goodwilled)
MCU failure at 95 k miles $2535
Roof rack cover latch broken $17.50

Grand total $4861.91
Since each of those repairs would have also had a $200 deductible, that would have been another $1,200 on top of the $4,000 warranty cost. So I came out ahead by $5,200-$4,861.91=338.09

His $4,862 would have been an added $895 if he didn't fix the 2nd door handle himself. That's a lot more than I ever spent in the first 5 years of ownership of any ICE vehicle. And ICE and transmissions are so reliable these days, I've only had a couple repairs associated with those areas in the past 25 years or so with 2 vehicles owned the whole time.

I get it, the apparent simplicity of EV versus ICE is appealing, but bottom line, there's really very little difference, considering most repairs and maintenance (outside of oil changes, which are no big deal) fall into areas outside the engine/trans. And maintenance things like serpentine belt, or maybe spark plugs at 50,000 miles (100K on many cars now), can be done along with the oil change and tire rotation, so not really a big deal.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Maybe... time will tell.

FWIW, I think Musk is a visionary, brilliant - possibly a genius - and I hope he succeeds. But he's his own worst enemy. If Tesla succeeds it will be because of him, but also in spite of him.

I agree; he is different. I have heard him say that he does not consider himself a business man and does not like that aspect of what he does. He thinks of himself as an innovator and engineer. Like many, he also seems to be a bit of a control freak who thinks he needs to do it all. This experience may teach or force him to stick to the visionary side over the business/legal side. Then again, I am not a psychologist and have never met the guy.

 

[Fedup]

I knew someone who interviewed with Elon Musk at SpaceX, but he only stayed there one year. Maybe too much stress.

 

[aja8888]

When people take their car to Tesla service centers, they give you a Tesla loaner vehicle. Perhaps this is only done in Southern California where I'm at. But I don't know why that fellow you mentioned didn't just go that route

Around here, when people take their $50K - $75K + BMW, Lexus, Audi, MB, etc in for warranty work or service, they get a loner also. It's really not a unique practice.

We have very few Tesla's running around here and I don't know anyone that has one. The one's I see are generally being driven by women (grocery getters?). I don't even recall seeing a service center in these parts.

 

[mpeirce]

Is Elon Musk the new Preston Tucker?

 

[oneill225]

Is Elon Musk the new Preston Tucker?

Don't think so.

No comparison by volume, alone (Tesla is producing hundreds of thousands of vehicles vs the handful from Tucker). The real difference, though, is the technology.

EVs really come down to battery technology, not car technology. Also, different fueling infrastructure, different taxation, different competition. Tesla also seeks to lead autonomous vehicle development which is largely software driven. A major change from the last 100+ years of car development.

 

[misanman]

It's relatively rare to see a Tesla in our mid-western state (I've seen the "S" and the "X" but haven't seen a "3" yet) but there seem to be a lot of them in southern California where my son lives. Maybe this is just a reflection of the fact that Teslas have been around for a number of years now, but, on a recent trip to visit son, it seemed to me that the Tesla styling is getting a little "dated". I suppose others will disagree but I think they could use a "face lift".

 

[bobandsherry]

It's relatively rare to see a Tesla in our mid-western state (I've seen the "S" and the "X" but haven't seen a "3" yet) but there seem to be a lot of them in southern California where my son lives. Maybe this is just a reflection of the fact that Teslas have been around for a number of years now, but, on a recent trip to visit son, it seemed to me that the Tesla styling is getting a little "dated". I suppose others will disagree but I think they could use a "face lift".

Yep, dated is good word to use. Just look back at how long the S and X have been around without any change. Just wonder how much it would cost for Tesla to redesign and retool their factory to update the looks.

 

[kcowan]

OK so let me see if I have this right?
- Tesla makes great EVs (Model 3 yet to be proven?)
- Tesla has interesting strategies such as free charging stations, better battery technologies
- Tesla has negotiated government subsidies for EVs (soon to end)
- there are issues with Tesla repairs out of warranty (skills, parts availability, costs)
- there are severe issues with management (high turnover, unstable CEO)
- Tesla has problems with managing the public market (SEC investigation)
- Tesla will run out of money within a year needing billions (at what price)
- there is a growing need for a facelift of existing models
- the resale market for Tesla models (residual values) is largely unknown
- the battery life/replacement cost/availability is not well-known
- does the software driven auto suffer inevitable issues as it matures
- there is growing competition from traditional vendors in hybrids
- the existing electrical grid has known limitations for widespread EV acceptance

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Half of Tesla sales are in California. The poster above is correct, there are plenty of them in Southern California. The weather is ideal for the batteries. My 3 has a range of 310 miles.