Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

OK so let me see if I have this right?
- Tesla makes great EVs (Model 3 yet to be proven?)
- Tesla has interesting strategies such as free charging stations, better battery technologies
- Tesla has negotiated government subsidies for EVs (soon to end)
- there are issues with Tesla repairs out of warranty (skills, parts availability, costs)
- there are severe issues with management (high turnover, unstable CEO)
- Tesla has problems with managing the public market (SEC investigation)
- Tesla will run out of money within a year needing billions (at what price)
- there is a growing need for a facelift of existing models
- the resale market for Tesla models (residual values) is largely unknown
- the battery life/replacement cost/availability is not well-known
- does the software driven auto suffer inevitable issues as it matures
- there is growing competition from traditional vendors in hybrids
- the existing electrical grid has known limitations for widespread EV acceptance

Pretty much true. All of it must be weighing down the stock, yet many say the stock is overvalued! Imagine a 2019 when Tesla will have made progress on all of the headwinds you have addressed while introducing a new Model Y SUV and still having a two year jump on any serious competition in the battery/charging arena.

Are you impressed with any of the EV offerings from the other car makers? Do you really think hybrids will be more than a short-term solution while the EV market develops? Why have a hybrid if the range and charging issues become a non-factor in the buying decision?

Regarding electric generation; this administration is very friendly to new gas and coal electric generation. I think the transition to highly efficient gas powered plants is the near-term solution and they will be permitted and built, as needed, over the next several years. Eventually RE will become a reality, but that may be decades away. Individual states may be less friendly, but they will be forced to get the power somewhere. In my state (WA) we have cheap hydro electric. We actually export electricity.

One thing you miss (perhaps the most relevant) is that the world is in an accelerating process of switching to EVs from ICEs. However many faults Tesla may have they are still the dominant leader in this transition and in new battery tech (with Panasonic). If they maintain the current trajectory they will continue to be.

This is a relatively new tech. Of course there will be many issues to work through during the transition and beyond. This is true for all of the manufacturers, not just Tesla. The question isn't how much Tesla is struggling to grow, the question is can anyone do better in the near future. I will continue to buy Tesla unless the balance shifts.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Oneill, you mentioned the Model Y suv. I am waiting to see how many reservations they get for it, whether it tops model 3's numbers. There was 500,000 reservations for the 3, with about 23% cancelling, leaving roughly 380,000 orders. All for a vehicle that buyers hadn't even text drove.

Has there been 500,000 reservations for any product in this country before I wonder?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

"test drove"

 

[oneill225]

Oneill, you mentioned the Model Y suv. I am waiting to see how many reservations they get for it, whether it tops model 3's numbers. There was 500,000 reservations for the 3, with about 23% cancelling, leaving roughly 380,000 orders. All for a vehicle that buyers hadn't even text drove.

Has there been 500,000 reservations for any product in this country before I wonder?

I can tell you that I will be interested if the price is below $60,000 (fully optioned). I usually switch out cars every 7 or 8 years and I am about there, now. The Jaguar iPace looked interesting, but too much money when options are actually added.

 

[NW-Bound]

... there are issues with Tesla repairs out of warranty (skills, parts availability, costs)

... the resale market for Tesla models (residual values) is largely unknown

I think the cannibalizing for parts perversely helps the resale value of used Tesla cars, even the ones that have been totaled by roll-over accidents or being flooded.

Earlier, I told the story of a guy who bought a flooded Tesla for $14K, and another Tesla totaled by a frontal impact for $14.5K. Would you pay that much for a totaled car?

He opened up the battery of the flooded car, saw that 4 of 16 modules were damaged by flood water. He was able to sell the remaining 12 modules for $10K to people who bought them to build DIY powerwalls. The flooded motor, he sold in non-working condition for $3K.

Similarly, when he merged the two cars into a working one, he sold off the parts he did not need such as doors, non-deployed airbags, even seatbelts, door mechanisms, etc... and made good money.

People now bid up totaled Teslas to unbelievable prices. He recently had to pay $20K for a flooded Tesla, and about the same for one that was rolled-over several turns.

Yes, there's a demand for used Tesla parts. Stock up now.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by kcowan
OK so let me see if I have this right?
- Tesla makes great EVs (Model 3 yet to be proven?)
- Tesla has interesting strategies such as free charging stations, better battery technologies
- Tesla has negotiated government subsidies for EVs (soon to end)
- there are issues with Tesla repairs out of warranty (skills, parts availability, costs)
- there are severe issues with management (high turnover, unstable CEO)
- Tesla has problems with managing the public market (SEC investigation)
- Tesla will run out of money within a year needing billions (at what price)
- there is a growing need for a facelift of existing models
- the resale market for Tesla models (residual values) is largely unknown
- the battery life/replacement cost/availability is not well-known
- does the software driven auto suffer inevitable issues as it matures
- there is growing competition from traditional vendors in hybrids
- the existing electrical grid has known limitations for widespread EV acceptance

Imagine a 2019 when Tesla will have made progress on all of the headwinds you have addressed ... .

For impact, bold & underline mine:

"Imagine a 2019 when Tesla will have made progress on all of the headwinds you have addressed ..."

Well, that would take some imagination indeed! Might even need to be a drug fueled imagination!

Subsidies return or are extended? Tesla won't need to raise money? Oh heck, I'm not gonna go through each one, but geez, stop being such a fanbois, it works against anyone taking you seriously (and you do make some good points from time to time).

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

For impact, bold & underline mine:

"Imagine a 2019 when Tesla will have made progress on all of the headwinds you have addressed ..."

Well, that would take some imagination indeed! Might even need to be a drug fueled imagination!

Subsidies return or are extended? Tesla won't need to raise money? Oh heck, I'm not gonna go through each one, but geez, stop being such a fanbois, it works against anyone taking you seriously (and you do make some good points from time to time).

-ERD50

You got me; Tesla cannot control the tax incentives (of which there will still be many from both state and fed). But then again, the tax incentive reductions will also apply to any Tesla competitor, so really a non-issue in the longer run beyond 2019. Aside from that, I will stand by my statement; even on the need to raise money.

 

[jazz4cash]

Tesla, Musk pay $40 mln to settle Tweet charges, Musk to resign as chairman https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-musk-pay-40-mln-213220846.html

Note: Musk gets to retain CEO title so that doesn’t seem xtoox very harsh to me.

 

[Fedup]

Ouch, that’s not small sum.

 

[oneill225]

Tesla, Musk pay $40 mln to settle Tweet charges, Musk to resign as chairman https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-musk-pay-40-mln-213220846.html

Note: Musk gets to retain CEO title so that doesn’t seem xtoox very harsh to me.

More settlement details, here:

https://electrek.co/2018/09/29/elon-musk-settles-sec-lawsuit-resign-tesla-board-million-fine/

Should have bought more shares on Friday.

 

[Ready]

So it would seem that the SEC, which initially sought to punish Musk for attempting to manipulate the stock price with a misleading tweet, now may end up having the greatest impact to shareholders by forcing him out of the chairman position. I suspect it's going to be a wild ride for the stock on Monday.

 

[Fedup]

I suspect, it will not be much up or down. But I’m glad I got out. It will go down if Elon Musk is not there, aka dead. No, I’m no wishing him dead. Just saying there is a cult out there following TSLA stock.

 

[oneill225]

So it would seem that the SEC, which initially sought to punish Musk for attempting to manipulate the stock price with a misleading tweet, now may end up having the greatest impact to shareholders by forcing him out of the chairman position. I suspect it's going to be a wild ride for the stock on Monday.

The stock should go up. They will also be reporting that they have met the Q3 Model 3 production goals.

 

[corn18]

One thing you miss (perhaps the most relevant) is that the world is in an accelerating process of switching to EVs from ICEs. However many faults Tesla may have they are still the dominant leader in this transition and in new battery tech (with Panasonic). If they maintain the current trajectory they will continue to be.

Looks like a 0-60 time of 10 years to me.

 

[Oz investor]

I suspect, it will not be much up or down. But I’m glad I got out. It will go down if Elon Musk is not there, aka dead. No, I’m no wishing him dead. Just saying there is a cult out there following TSLA stock.

+ 1

yes i have been burnt elsewhere with companies that have 'rock star ' directors

 

[Aerides]

The stock will go up a little, because now the "will they won't they" is removed. The market loves certainty, and hates unknowns.

 

[oneill225]

Looks like a 0-60 time of 10 years to me.

Not clear why it would take that long, but more recent articles admit that it is happening faster than expected just a couple of years ago.

No one can predict the impact of advances in battery tech over the coming years. Battery cost, storage capacity, and safety should all improve over time. A big leap in the technology would, no doubt, further accelerate the switch to EV.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/planes-trains-automobiles-electric-remake/

 

[Fedup]

After hours, it went up $1 plus change. Small potato to TSLA share.

 

[aja8888]

Not clear why it would take that long, but more recent articles admit that it is happening faster than expected just a couple of years ago.

No one can predict the impact of advances in battery tech over the coming years. Battery cost, storage capacity, and safety should all improve over time. A big leap in the technology would, no doubt, further accelerate the switch to EV.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/planes-trains-automobiles-electric-remake/

Don't you realize there are scores of millions of people driving 10 year old Camrys and Hondas because they make less than $25k per year and can't afford to buy a $30 - $50k electric car? Many of these people work on their own cars and have families to feed. Millions live in apartments with no provision to charge an electric car, let alone afford one. None of this is going to change overnight, especially when our nation is losing its middle class rapidly. And the middle class and up are the ones buying Teslas.

When an electric car is under $20K and the used market is overflowing with $5K used ones, and power is as available as gasoline, then it may make sense.

 

[oneill225]

Don't you realize there are scores of millions of people driving 10 year old Camrys and Hondas because they make less than $25k per year and can't afford to buy a $30 - $50k electric car? Many of these people work on their own cars and have families to feed. Millions live in apartments with no provision to charge an electric car, let alone afford one. None of this is going to change overnight, especially when our nation is losing its middle class rapidly. And the middle class and up are the ones buying Teslas.

When an electric car is under $20K and the used market is overflowing with $5K used ones, and power is as available as gasoline, then it may make sense.

Do you realize that the chart is a 25 year projection? Do you really think it will take more than 5 or 10 years before electric cars will be price competitive with the future version of a Camry?

I cited an article that refers to multiple analysts having to revise their 2016 predictions regarding EV growth. Most had to triple their estimates from just a couple of years ago. It will happen faster than that chart.

 

[jazz4cash]

Ouch, that’s not small sum.

Actually it is kinda small I think. It’s 20M from Musk and 20M from TMC (I guess for not having adequate controls in place to disclose properly).

 

[Fedup]

Actually it is kinda small I think. It’s 20M from Musk and 20M from TMC (I guess for not having adequate controls in place to disclose properly).

Yeah, but not compare to what the British cave divers want to sue him for, $75k. That’s peanuts.

 

[Oz investor]

LOL

it's only money , maybe they can take it out of the profits they are making


( poor share-holders )

 

[Popeye]

The Illinois Tollway may add infrastructure to charge electric vehicles along I-294.

Starting to look at EV infrastructure including charging while you drive. Does this lead to man-sized slot car racing? One can only hope!



“Additions could include conventional charging stations, “super-charger” stations that work more quickly and “smart-powered lanes” that charge electric vehicles as they drive along the road. The smart-powered lanes would have charging technology placed under the pavement, which would then transfer power to a receiver on the bottom of electric vehicles.“

https://wgntv.com/2018/09/29/i-294-could-soon-include-smart-powered-lanes-to-charge-electric-cars/

 

[Texas Proud]

Do you realize that the chart is a 25 year projection? Do you really think it will take more than 5 or 10 years before electric cars will be price competitive with the future version of a Camry?

I cited an article that refers to multiple analysts having to revise their 2016 predictions regarding EV growth. Most had to triple their estimates from just a couple of years ago. It will happen faster than that chart.

Yes, I think it will take more than 5 or 10 years for all electric to become price competitive with ICE vehicles...


And the chart shows that by 2040 all electric will be about 50% of the market... also do not know if that chart is done by someone who has an agenda... as an example they predicted ridership on rails here in Houston to be at a much higher level than it really is... there was an agenda to get funding and real ridership made it look bad...


BTW, where is the graph that shows that car ownership is going to go down because of ride share or whatever will happen with self driving cars making ownership a thing of the past?