Preferred Stock Investing-The Good , The Bad and The In Between 2015 - 2020

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Well since most utility preferreds are around 5%, I dont see it happening soon, lol... But I have tightened the fence on my never sells...Gonna ride CNIGO, CNIGP, FIISO, and AILLL into the sunset. The others are still just outside contract workers for me begging to become full time employees like the above.
 
An update on my flipping...



Had a bad Aug... 4 flips for a loss just under $400... one small loss and one big one... held on to one flip for my max 30 days and then kept dropping the price daily until sold...


YTD is est at $4500 for 35% on weighted invested or 25% of you go by starting balance at beg of year (without interest I earned on the MM account)...
 
An update on my flipping...



Had a bad Aug... 4 flips for a loss just under $400... one small loss and one big one... held on to one flip for my max 30 days and then kept dropping the price daily until sold...


YTD is est at $4500 for 35% on weighted invested or 25% of you go by starting balance at beg of year (without interest I earned on the MM account)...
Dont give me your percentage gains and losses tell me the damn tickers ya played in! And dont say JBN or KTP or I am personally going to pull the paddle out myself!
 
Dont give me your percentage gains and losses tell me the damn tickers ya played in! And dont say JBN or KTP or I am personally going to pull the paddle out myself!


I am all over the place... but my big loss this past month was JBR... I have made money on it before, but also lost...


Just checked... with JBN and JBR I have made $578 over the past two years... not too bad.. but all of that was an $800 gain from JBN in late 2017...



My last 2 were LTSF ($138 gain in 7 days) and CDMOP ($199 in 5 days, both invested about $15K)... holding right now C-J and PIY... C-J is not recovering as fast as I would like and PIY is going ex tomorrow...


Since I am not sure how long I have to hold I do not go after the same ones... I look at Dividends.com to see ex divis on all of them and see which has the largest divi and yield...



I try and keep half the divi... just checked and avg is 48%... I have decided to drop the price after a couple of weeks and then more after that... and when I hit 30 I start to drop a lot... need to keep the money moving to another one instead of just sitting in a dead one... since I started this new process my avg holding is 11 days...


I am not getting rich on this as I only started with $24K this year... but getting close to $29K total...


It is a fun hobby... and gives me something to do...
 
The LTS trades this past week were good ones...I stayed on sidelines because have an unhealthy emotional hate for the outfit. The JCP bonds have just been rocked this year.
 
Preferred Stock Investing-The Good , The Bad and The In Between

The LTS trades this past week were good ones...I stayed on sidelines because have an unhealthy emotional hate for the outfit. The JCP bonds have just been rocked this year.


BTW Texas, ...Your hobby pays better than crossword puzzles do, also! [emoji4]
 
Preferred Stock Investing-The Good , The Bad and The In Between

Unfortunately I had to sell off a few of my oversized NSS position today. I bought 200 shares of CNTHO at 49.80 today. A low yielder but I needed more safer shares as I had drifted to far...And snagged one I have chased for 4 years. AWRY, the Allegheny and Western Railroad, at $108. Its really not a preferred but it listed as one. Its not even a railway company anymore but its “guaranteed dividend” was assumed by what is now CSX, many a moon ago. A 6% $100 par common stock...Go figure that out. But that is what they did back in the old days as it hasnt missed a $3 semi annual payment since it was issued in the 1890s. Not getting rich on this I just wanted it because it had been an impossible chase for me between getting jumped and it flat not trading. Prior to this week only about 500 total shares had traded in past several years.
 
With a 1/2 percent increase by the Fed by December the expected amount, and the economy doing so well, interest rates are moving towards new recovery highs. My fear is these 6 percent preferred will become 6.5% preferred moving toward 7 % preferred and a 8-16 percent decline could hit in the next 6 months in the share price of these, not enough return for me to offset the risk I see right now.

The differential between competing rates is rapidly closing in on many of these preferreds, which have held up pretty well to date.

And today we have broken through rate resistance on 5,10,and 30 year US treasury bonds as economic new continues to be good. Public Storage after being over par in July has fallen to 22.19 right now, I would think about buying at around 6.5% interest which would be around 19.


FRTC is down to $22.40 has been bouncing around 22 in the month of September. MNRC is down to 23+ so it appears to me a panic has not yet hit the preferreds but the downtrend has had a significant impact. A few more weeks of increasing rates could spark a panic in the selling of these securities.
 
And today we have broken through rate resistance on 5,10,and 30 year US treasury bonds as economic new continues to be good. Public Storage after being over par in July has fallen to 22.19 right now, I would think about buying at around 6.5% interest which would be around 19.





FRTC is down to $22.40 has been bouncing around 22 in the month of September. MNRC is down to 23+ so it appears to me a panic has not yet hit the preferreds but the downtrend has had a significant impact. A few more weeks of increasing rates could spark a panic in the selling of these securities.



When you stick with “why the hell havent they been called” issues like I do, one doesnt see that....But hopefully your premise bears fruit and I will rotate out of some of those into the beaten down ones...But they need to get beat down a helluva of a lot more first.
 
GLP-A is seeing a big drop in past few days, not sure why since it has a pretty healthy rate (coupon 9.75%) and 8/2023 turns into a floating rate security at LIBOR + 6.774%.
 
GLP-A is seeing a big drop in past few days, not sure why since it has a pretty healthy rate (coupon 9.75%) and 8/2023 turns into a floating rate security at LIBOR + 6.774%.



That is the only one I have to see a drop...Not really concerned...Bought 1000 at 24.80, flipped 600 at 26, but back 200 at 25.50. I do expect some sagging overall to come though even in what I own. I reinvest all proceeds anyways, so long term if I am not flipping I am better off for them to drop to increase my yield going forward. Just dont want a 50% drop or dividend suspension, lol.
 
Just dont want a 50% drop or dividend suspension, lol.

Don't think that's at risk. But is is cumulative and common div being paid so room to run, hopefully :) Decided to buy a few more at the bargain price. Super sized div coming up within a month!

Big volume on GLP-A today, running 3x average. Hmmmm....
 
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Maybe the ol buy/sell imbalance game here....I am not a player. I am way too close to my UBTI limit in my accounts for K-1. So I will just sit.
 
Maybe the ol buy/sell imbalance game here....I am not a player. I am way too close to my UBTI limit in my accounts for K-1. So I will just sit.

Ended up down 3% today at $24.80 and 6x the average volume. Dunno what's up. Someone had to unload for some reason.
 
Ended up down 3% today at $24.80 and 6x the average volume. Dunno what's up. Someone had to unload for some reason.
The common didnt move a lot...Either just a dump or another preferred is being offerred up soon. DCP preferred has sagged on that happenning. Its cheaper to offer preffereds than to do a common stock offerring. Tempting but UBTI will keep me in check. Will hold what i got with no concern.
 
The common didnt move a lot...Either just a dump or another preferred is being offerred up soon. DCP preferred has sagged on that happenning. Its cheaper to offer preffereds than to do a common stock offerring. Tempting but UBTI will keep me in check. Will hold what i got with no concern.
Yeah, I saw the common down just 1%. If new preferred I'd expect the common to take a hit with concern over it's dividend (over 10%). It's almost acting like it was being called, but then should be below par and pro-rata dividend, but don't know why they'd call so soon. I bought these to hold for a while as it has a nice return. Considering what I might sell off and flip in.
 
It cant be called for almost 5 years. It was just issued. I guess I should check SEC filings but not really concerned for now.
 
OK an interesting thing in the preferred arena, the bonds all broke to new multiyear lows, PFF broke to a new multiyear low, but most of the preferreds I like have not gotten to a new low which I find interesting and puzzling at the same time.

Most people on this forum have lived their adult lives in a world where interest rates bounce in a gradual decline over a prolonged period, which I believe we are in the early stages of reverting in the other direction. I am not sure most people will understand the impacts as the costs of borrowing continue to increase not decrease. I think logically over the next 12-18 months the interest rate at the long end will increase another 1.25 - 1.75 percent. This is a death knell for weaker players in the economy and opens up opportunities for the well funded company.

In any case I am always cautious when a market is making a new multi year high reversing in a major way off a very favorable long term trend. At the same time stocks and oil are also rallying lending further credence to a growth in the real economy. Interesting times..........
 
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There is no doubt quality preferreds have not felt the punch yet...If you look at issues like the KIM 6% preferred and IPL-D that were alive in 2013 you will see them still $3-$4 above where they were at in late 2013 when 10 year last sniffed 3.15%... The retail panic is not here yet. I want a shot at $20.50 with IPL-D again like in 2013.
 
There is no doubt quality preferreds have not felt the punch yet...If you look at issues like the KIM 6% preferred and IPL-D that were alive in 2013 you will see them still $3-$4 above where they were at in late 2013 when 10 year last sniffed 3.15%... The retail panic is not here yet. I want a shot at $20.50 with IPL-D again like in 2013.

My IPL-D cost basis doesn't even sniff $20.50:blush:
 
Most people on this forum have lived their adult lives in a world where interest rates bounce in a gradual decline over a prolonged period, which I believe we are in the early stages of reverting in the other direction. I am not sure most people will understand the impacts as the costs of borrowing continue to increase not decrease. I think logically over the next 12-18 months the interest rate at the long end will increase another 1.25 - 1.75 percent. This is a death knell for weaker players in the economy and opens up opportunities for the well funded company.

Heh.... started my career working in Banking and saw Prime/Fed Fund rate hit 20% and along the way dead-end to almost 0%. Yes, more costly as rate rises, but rates we were at were artificially low as recovery effort. Fed needs to push rates higher so they have some dry powder available if another recovery is needed. I think the greatest fear the Fed has had of late is what would have have done if they needed to further stimulate the economy for a recovery, pushed Prime to negative? Interestingly, the Fed could be the cause of needing a recovery if they overshoot, and history has seem to indicate that the pendulum always swings too far in either direction, never perfectly in the middle..... Prime/Fed Funds in 4-5% range seems reasonable level to get back to.

That's why I've been cautious on pref's with low coupon rates, especially those without a maturity date. Those things will most likely sit out there forever as those will be cheap compared to newer borrowings. If you bought just for income then no issue, but if you counted on them holding value to sell at some future date, well..... could be interesting.
 
What I think is not understood is that interest rates have been rising for 2 years, and yet we are only at the beginning of the interest rate increase. My nibbling would begin when preferreds like IPL-D and PSA-D are both trading under 19. Then the dividend flow would in an increasing interest rate environment fund even more purchases should rates continue to fall, it is the advantage as rates rise well above the 4 percent level, the amount of interest to apply to reinvestment grows.
 
Heh.... started my career working in Banking and saw Prime/Fed Fund rate hit 20% and along the way dead-end to almost 0%. Yes, more costly as rate rises, but rates we were at were artificially low as recovery effort. Fed needs to push rates higher so they have some dry powder available if another recovery is needed. I think the greatest fear the Fed has had of late is what would have have done if they needed to further stimulate the economy for a recovery, pushed Prime to negative? Interestingly, the Fed could be the cause of needing a recovery if they overshoot, and history has seem to indicate that the pendulum always swings too far in either direction, never perfectly in the middle..... Prime/Fed Funds in 4-5% range seems reasonable level to get back to.

That's why I've been cautious on pref's with low coupon rates, especially those without a maturity date. Those things will most likely sit out there forever as those will be cheap compared to newer borrowings. If you bought just for income then no issue, but if you counted on them holding value to sell at some future date, well..... could be interesting.

Part of what I think the federal reserve has gotten wrong is the amount of income that is provided to everyday people as interest rates rise. The decline in interest rates is basically pro-business, allowing for investments and replacement of human capital with mechanical capital, the increase in interest rates is pro-spending it creates it's own cycle in the opposite format. It becomes cheaper to higher a person than to finance equipment, slowly at first but it creates a momentum and it feels like the economy is gathering momentum. The Fed seems to have no intention of ending the interest rate increase for the next 3-6 months anyway.

So in total in US we are talking about 26 trillion in debt a 2 percent increase in interest rates as we have seen as it works through the debt means 520 billion in additional income. That is about 3 percent of GDP and has a larger impact on the economy to the upside than the investment cost has on the down side. The only problem a company has when it borrows is when it can no longer borrow.
 
Those investment grade bank preferred stocks from JP Morgan, Capital One, Wells Fargo are slowly creeping down to the buy zone. This December may be a good time to jump back into those issues if their yields start approaching 6.5-6.75% like they did in late 2013.
 
CHSCM (CHS) is at a 5 week low of $25.61. Right there it yields about 6.5%. I am add to my position tomorrow.
 
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