I vote to call it a Bear Market!

[atmsmshr]

+1 or -1 depending on what Running Man says.

 

[Maenad]

+1

This bear has been / continues to be forecast by many previously-reliable signals.

Yeah, for years now.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Getting there +1. I think like when one gets a disease or ailment, the first reaction is denial. I do not think it is just the USA. There is so much geopolitical uncertainty, all markets are somewhat volatile. As for the USA, 10 years of a rally has to end at some point. The market cannot just go up ad infinitum.

I just looked at the 100 DOW year chart, with respect to 3 bear markets, '82, '02, '09

The drops in Rough numbers were: 5k, 5k & 8k respectively.

Again these numbers are NOT exact just a very rough average. So based on this one can reasonably expect a ~40% to ~50% drop in the near future from the 2018 high. This is pure speculation on my behalf.

 

[CRLLS]

Bear is just a name. Whether it is called a Correction or a Bear market, I picked the wrong year to start retirement withdrawals.

 

[street]

WOW! I beleive a 40% haircut would take us back to Oct. 2014. I hope it doesn't drop that far but if it does will have to ride it out. My savior is I just need to not do anything it will come back.

 

[revhappy]

WOW! I beleive a 40% haircut would take us back to Oct. 2014. I hope it doesn't drop that far but if it does will have to ride it out. My savior is I just need to not do anything it will come back.

The crash is one thing and what happens after that is equally important. In 2008, the market didn't take too long to bounce back so if you closed your eyes for 2 years you won't notice anything. I hope this time too the bounce back is as swift.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

+1...but I'm biased as I'm rooting for Mr. Bear to arrive.

I will be a net buyer of securities for at least the next 10 years, probably more like 15 years. I'd rather buy them cheaply.

My next tranche of stock options would lock at a lower price. (Tactical problem would be that my restricted shares would vest at a lower price, but those aren't levered while options are.)

A good bear that knocks my assets back will also stiffen my spine a bit on ensuring I'm really financially ready to FIRE.

C'mon Mr. Bear. Papa wants to see Dow 19K!!

 

[USGrant1962]

Everyone knows that -16% is an antelope market.
-17% is an otter.
-18% is a zebra.
-19% is a garden slug.
-20% is a bear.
-21% is a donkey.

As others have said - the market doesn't care, but there is a generally accepted definition of bear, and we are not there. Yet.

 

[MichaelB]

It’s a vomiting camel

According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

 

[Chuckanut]

I try to be happy and think of all the money my children are going to make investing into a falling market that lets them buy lower.

 

[Chuckanut]

According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

No doubt the Vomiting Camel was named by the same guys who named the constellations.

 

[RenoJay]

+2

I think much of the investing world is in denial. In 2008 - 2012, I could barely find anyone who thought stocks made sense. They gave plenty of reasons. In the press it was labeled, "the most hated bull market in history." Now, AFTER an amazing 10 year run, it seems everyone I talk to is suddenly a believer in buy and hold, indexing, etc. Generally euphoria comes at the end of a bull market and it takes a long time for The Euphoric to acknowledge things have changed. (I have Bitcoin friends who keep telling me how they're staying the course, LOL! I wonder what would have happened if they challenged their own beliefs a year ago??) Anyway, I'm mostly out of this market and will get back in when I start seeing threads where virtually no one can say anything positive about the future of stocks.

 

[OldShooter]

I try to be happy and think of all the money my children are going to make investing into a falling market that lets them buy lower.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

– Warren Buffett
​

 

[street]

Good stuff! Even in bad times we have to find the good and be able to laugh. The bad times go by faster that way. LOL

 

[SumDay]

I looked up the "longest bear market" for myself, and thought I'd share. I'm getting ready to make my first withdrawal in 2019, after retiring this summer. Worried about SORR, realizing there's nothing normal about the current situation.

"The average bear market lasted 1.4 years." Nice little PDF to accompany this: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common...tentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

 

[GravitySucks]

-1.
Probably next week though ...
I don't care as much if the market gets labelled Correction or Bear as much as I stay labelled Eccentric rather than Crazy.

 

[Lsbcal]

According to the Financial Times, it’s a Vomiting camel. See here for details.

This gets my vote for the best response so far. And yes, looking at my portfolio I do feel like vomiting too.

Regarding that grizzly photo that NW-Bound put up, he really needs to brush his teeth.

On the bright side, we did a kitchen remodel and most of that money came out before the markets had a chance to loose it.

 

[NW-Bound]

Regarding that grizzly photo that NW-Bound put up, he really needs to brush his teeth...

I hope the "he" in your post refers to the bear and not myself.

And the bear's teeth need more than brushing at this point. A dentist would have recommended some deep cleaning.

 

[Lsbcal]

I hope the "he" in your post refers to the bear and not myself.

And the bear's teeth need more than brushing at this point. A dentist would have recommended some deep cleaning.

I would never propose you brush that bear's teeth.

 

[audreyh1]

I looked up the "longest bear market" for myself, and thought I'd share. I'm getting ready to make my first withdrawal in 2019, after retiring this summer. Worried about SORR, realizing there's nothing normal about the current situation.

"The average bear market lasted 1.4 years." Nice little PDF to accompany this: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common...tentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

So figure we can "lift our Hedges" in time for Xmas 2019! Now, what can I do to occupy my time next year? Oh right, I can do my 2020 stagflation preparation!

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

+1


I am calling this a bear market. The Nasdaq is already there. Plus I see absolutely nothing that is going to change things around anytime soon. The Fed wants to keep raising interest rates, twice penciled in next year, which is subject to change up or down. Trade with China doesn't look hopeful and we have a government shutdown looming.


The Fed thinks the economy is doing fine, the stock market thinks it's slowing down. So many issues out there, and not much hope anything gets fixed anytime soon. So while we are not officially there in all three major U.S. indexes, I think a Bear market will happen soon across the board.

 

[steelyman]

I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.

 

[W2R]

I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.

After reading that, I just checked and at yesterday's close my portfolio (not including my bank account) was down 6.7% from my all time high which was last January 28th. If you include my bank account it's down even less. And this is before getting a good chunk of my December yield.

Not a Bear Market for me.... just a huggable Teddy Bear market.

Just 6 days after my infamous "Wheee!!!" post in October of 2008, my portfolio had dropped 7.4%.

And even with recent drops, my total yesterday was 40% higher than on that Wheee!!! day.

 

[steelyman]

After reading that, I just checked and at yesterday's close my portfolio (not including my bank account) was down 6.7% from my all time high which was last January 28th.



Not a bear for me....

Excellent! You can watch all the doom and gloom headlines and let them roll off.

My recent high point was later in the year, probably July or August. I withdrew some not long after so would have to adjust to get a real reading. I think it helps to keep things in context (vs get too swept up by headlines).