I vote to call it a Bear Market!

[NW-Bound]

And even with recent drops, my total yesterday was 40% higher than on that Wheee!!! day.

It's 20% after accounting for inflation.

Still OK though, considering the 10 years of WR for living expenses.

 

[NW-Bound]

Please realize that that time period is from peak to trough in a bear market, and says nothing about the much longer period it takes to recover.

Okie dokie. We should all prepare ourselves for one more year of pain.

Where's that button that Jim Cramer has for sound effects?

"The house of pain!"

 

[W2R]

It's 20% after accounting for inflation.

Still OK though, considering the 10 years of WR for living expenses.

Well, I was working for the first thirteen months after Wheee!!! day (retired on 11/9/2009). So an increase of 40% is not as great as it sounds. Still, I have no complaints about the market since then, as a whole.

One great thing about the market falling like this - - - FINALLY we may be spared the endless predictions of an imminent crash, by both forum members and mass media financial analysts, that we have been enduring constantly for the past decade.

 

[dtbach]

I've gone through a number of corrections and bear markets and even though I know they will end and the sun will come out after, it's still a painful experience! Not a fun time for any investor.

 

[Dtail]

Hard to imagine this market going anywhere near the 2008 results. The economy and credit environment is nowhere near as bad.
The psychology just needs to find the bottom.

 

[W2R]

I've gone through a number of corrections and bear markets and even though I know they will end and the sun will come out after, it's still a painful experience! Not a fun time for any investor.

I know this probably sounds sick, but TBH I am so glad the waiting is over! Everyone has been expecting this for ages. It's been reminiscent of The Pit and The Pendulum by E.A. Poe.

I am SO ready for this. I have a paid off house and car, no debt, low expenses, and claimed Social Security based on my own employment last July, at age 70. Love those big SS deposits! Not only that, but I have extra cash in the bank that I was going to use to buy that SUV that I never did buy, plus cash that is actually 2018 money that I never spent since no big unexpected expenses came up this year.

 

[Moemg]

I just find this market annoying.We need one good day between all the gloom.It is dampening my Christmas mojo.

 

[steelyman]

I wonder whether I (my portfolio) am in a “personal correction or bear market”, using the typical 10-20% guidelines from highs. My guess is correction.

I went ahead and did a rough, not laser-precise, calculation using my data with a weekly granularity.

My recent high occurred during the first week of September. Since then, down ~11.85% so I call a personal correction. Of course, who knows if that will become a bear?

 

[NYEXPAT]

Hard to imagine this market going anywhere near the 2008 results. The economy and credit environment is nowhere near as bad.
The psychology just needs to find the bottom.

I am thinking more like the 2007 highs!

 

[MichaelB]

How far off the high is something I don’t track. Right now we’re down around 3.5% and I recall us being up around 4.5% earlier this year, so I guesstimate we’re about 8% off this high. Not sure what significance that has, if any.

Stocks outside the US are all down 20% or more (from their high earlier this year). They didn’t run up nearly as much as the US.

 

[Chuckanut]

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

– Warren Buffett
​

Hopefully, the transfer of money will go from the Nervous Nellies and GetRichQuick crowd to my kids. Not from me!!

 

[Chuckanut]

FWIW, since I have no special or secret knowledge relating to the stock market, I think many investors are a bit freaked out by the interest rate increases. They have to think that the [-]war on savers[/-] very low interest rates are normal, the way things should be. OTOH, I remember my father being overjoyed to get a 5.8% mortgage. He considered under 6% mortgages back then to be a deal.

Combine the interest rate increase effect with the trade issues and tariffs that might damage economic growth, and I can see a case for a lower market. But, I don't expect a Bear market because the economy is still strong, interest rates while higher are certainly not historically high, and unemployment is very low. Lower oil prices can't hurt either, unless one lives in an area that depends on high oil prices. Sorry about that Alaska, Texas, and the rest.

At some point people will remember or learn that somewhat higher interest rates for mortgages, t-bills, etc. are normal. And, one way or the other this tariff/trade conflict will end. The only question is when.

My 2¢ from a guy who knows no more than you do. Take what you wish and leave the rest.

 

[JoeWras]

There's something about a trillion. Every time companies near it, or touch it, the market bounces off. Happened in 2000 too, except then the number was $500B. About equivalent to now.

Feels to me that a bear bit my butt.

 

[zaqxsw]

Hey! Most dividends are going UP! In at least half of my portfolio holdings.

No expert here, but my reinvested dividends are buying more stock. Isn't that what counts in the long run?

I know, easy to say being retired, and not needing anything more. It's just numbers, right? I will comfortably sleep and eat tonight and tomorrow...

How can I be hurting

It's numbers for me. I like W2R's posts.

 

[retired1]

+1 Already seeing -10% drop in my portfolios

 

[foxfirev5]

Yep she's a bear. As a retiree living on dividends etc I see no need to overreact, yet. However, past experience indicates that dividends will fall as well. This quarters dividends reflect the past not the future.
Buckle up. It could get bumpy.
Heaven forbid I may have to fly coach next year.

 

[O2Bfree]

Bear market? Are layoffs coming?? I want to go out with a severance package!

 

[Lsbcal]

I think the next 12 months are going to be very profitable.

 

[zaqxsw]

I sure hope it doesn't rebound before the first of the year. I've still got two more years of ROTH conversions to do.

Another positive about all of this, but it is a selfish thought...

 

[easysurfer]

What? I ain't afraid of no bear!

Gulp .....

 

[O2Bfree]

All I want for Christmas is some VTSAX, some VTSAX, some VTSAX...

 

[steelyman]

How far off the high is something I don’t track. Right now we’re down around 3.5% and I recall us being up around 4.5% earlier this year, so I guesstimate we’re about 8% off this high. Not sure what significance that has, if any.



Stocks outside the US are all down 20% or more (from their high earlier this year). They didn’t run up nearly as much as the US.

It’s just another way of looking at your general trend but in a non-competitive way (vs YTD-type stuff) and not bracketed by specific calendar dates.

I agree about internationals, they’ve been a monkey on the back.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Another 900 points to go down on the S&P till I consider getting in... Only another ~18 or so more full trading days give or take.

 

[joeea]

I didn't realize this was something that could be voted on! Is there an electoral vote, or just a popular vote?

Can I get an absentee ballot? To be honest, I'll probably just throw it away, since I don't care at all what you label it.

 

[corn18]

Yeeeeehah! Ride 'em, cowboy!