Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ransil]

I signed up, couldn't seem to log in yesterday, in now.


100K is too low, playing with someone else's money gotta go big, I ran out of money too fast, I like the 1M .


trades should go in most are market orders we will see how it goes after that.

 

[ransil]

I have an account and made trades but not showing up in the rankings, and the game only shows 3 players,.

 

[Boho]

All of my below buy and sell orders were market orders (I know this for sure about yesterday's orders). The buy/sell times and the transaction times are a day apart. I guess this means they weren't executed until this morning but I didn't check prices at those times to confirm that. DIA is an ETF. IBM is a stock. I don't know if this is OK with me. How about you? Has anyone else experienced this?

Symbol · Order Date/Time · Transaction Date/Time · Type · Amount · Ex. Price

DIA · 1/23/19 · 1:27p · 1/24/19 · 9:31a · Sell · 50 · $245.45
DIA · 1/23/19 · 1:25p · 1/24/19 · 9:31a · Sell · 100 · $245.45
IBM · 1/23/19 · 12:03p · 1/24/19 · 9:30a · Buy · 111 · $132.57
DIA · 1/22/19 · 2:28p · 1/22/19 · 2:28p · Buy · 200 · $243.03
DIA · 1/22/19 · 2:22p · 1/22/19 · 2:22p · Sell · 200 · $243.14
DIA · 1/22/19 · 2:10p · 1/22/19 · 2:10p · Buy · 400 · $243.23

 

[Boho]

Also, they didn't show up in the pending orders list yesterday. But now I see three of yesterdays orders, for the mutual fund VFINX, in my pending orders. I think mutual funds orders are supposed to be executed at the end of the day on which they're ordered, which would have been yesterday.

 

[ransil]

All my market orders went in at the open, i thought i had some limit orders in not sure if they executed or disappeared, will check when i get to a computer, im in the rankings now guess it just took til the end of the day.

 

[sengsational]

I tried to sign up with a spam gourmet email, and they're apparently blocking that. I like to use a throw away email since these guys might spam you relentlessly, sell your email address, or get hacked and lose your info to bad guys. But if the real contest starts, I might relent.

 

[Boho]

I tried to sign up with a spam gourmet email, and they're apparently blocking that. I like to use a throw away email since these guys might spam you relentlessly, sell your email address, or get hacked and lose your info to bad guys. But if the real contest starts, I might relent.

One of the addresses that you could check through mailinator will probably work. Try [anything] at tradermail dot info

Then to check your mail, go to mailinator.com and enter the [anything] that you used.

I tried PMing you that but I couldn't.

 

[sengsational]

The PM's worked, and so did the mailinator email. I fiddled around with it. So far so good except I got a duplicate buy somehow. I'll chalk that up to user error. The lower starting money means we'll run into fewer volume issues, but the $5 commission hits harder. There are people at Robin Hood and many other places that pay much less. I pay $2 at Vanguard.

 

[ransil]

the trade information doesn't seem to be as detailed, I made a market order and a limit order and I have no idea which is which or how much I paid or have paid for the stocks.


Ivestopidea nailed me with a triple trade again on a market order today, I thought I had that figured out on how to avoid it.

 

[Boho]

To do: determine what to measure my performance against. We've been using nunnun but easysurfer is pretty balanced too, with more attention to foreign stocks. Maybe several measures are appropriate. I'm about equal with easysurfer at the moment.

 

[ERD50]

To do: determine what to measure my performance against. We've been using nunnun but easysurfer is pretty balanced too, with more attention to foreign stocks. Maybe several measures are appropriate. I'm about equal with easysurfer at the moment.

It's "stock picking", so the nunnun approach is best. Stick it 100% into total stock market funds/ETFs, like VTI or VFINX. Then hibernate for a year.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

To do: determine what to measure my performance against. We've been using nunnun but easysurfer is pretty balanced too, with more attention to foreign stocks. Maybe several measures are appropriate. I'm about equal with easysurfer at the moment.

The contest is called "Beat Boho", so in my humble opinion, the only statistic that matters is how many people are ranked above you at the end of the contest period.

A secondary metric of casual interest is how many [-]explanations[/-] excuses you will provide to explain why you can win at Rock Paper Scissors but not in stock-picking contests.

Oh, I guess there's also the number of alternate statistics that you claim to win. I'm less interested in that one but it's still mildly amusing.

 

[Boho]

It's "stock picking", so the nunnun approach is best. Stick it 100% into total stock market funds/ETFs, like VTI or VFINX. Then hibernate for a year.

-ERD50

I was too lazy to look up exactly what he had before. Yeah, he has more bonds than is usually recommended. I'm not that interested in comparing my performance against that, but I do want to compare against a few alternatives for index investors. I know some indexers think international stocks are unimportant but others don't. Bonds, cash, commodities, and whatnot, if they're recommended by respected indexers, count IMO. I think bonds are and commodities aren't, but I'll let Bogle and the like be the judge. I haven't defined "the like" yet.

 

[Boho]

The contest is called "Beat Boho", so in my humble opinion, the only statistic that matters is how many people are ranked above you at the end of the contest period.

You can be the legal department for the contest. Personally, I'm interested in whatever meaning the results have even aside from win or lose.

 

[SecondCor521]

You can be the legal department for the contest. Personally, I'm interested in whatever meaning the results have even aside from win or lose.

Sounds too much like w*rk. No thank you. I'm only here for my own amusement.

 

[ERD50]

I was too lazy to look up exactly what he had before. Yeah, he has more bonds than is usually recommended. ...

Go back and look. I'm almost positive nunnun was 100% equities, 0% bonds. IIRC he had to buy two similar total market (or S&P500) funds, the contest would not allow him to put 100% in a single fund.

(edit) Found it, yes 0% bonds (Maybe my memory is not so bad for an old guy?).

I ran into the "diversification rule" so I could only buy $500k of VTI.....I just bought VOO with my remaining $500k.

VTI (total market) and VOO (S&P 500) track very well, no real difference. Move the slider back to March 2017:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,vti,voo

... I'm not that interested in comparing my performance against that, but I do want to compare against a few alternatives for index investors. I know some indexers think international stocks are unimportant but others don't. Bonds, cash, commodities, and whatnot, if they're recommended by respected indexers, count IMO. I think bonds are and commodities aren't, but I'll let Bogle and the like be the judge. I haven't defined "the like" yet.

As I said, since it is a "stock picking" contest, I think a total market index is the best yardstick. You can always go back and look up how these various index combos would have worked, we don't actually need any of them in the contest. But I like having the one total market B&H there as a goalpost.

But the contest is "Beat Boho", not "Beat the market". So far, "Beat Boho" has been easier

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Go back and look. I'm almost positive nunnun was 100% equities, 0% bonds. IIRC he had to buy two similar total market (or S&P500) funds, the contest would not allow him to put 100% in a single fund.

(edit) Found it, yes 0% bonds (Maybe my memory is not so bad for an old guy?).

I meant easysurfer has too much bonds so I won't compare myself against him. Maybe it'd good for an old-person portfolio but I'm more interested in comparisons with people who want to make money, not protect it like a retired person.

As I said, since it is a "stock picking" contest...

Maybe the official description should be "investment contest" or "market timing contest." I don't want to limit myself to stocks. I don't claim that's good in real life and I want the contest to be realistic.

 

[ERD50]

I meant easysurfer has too much bonds so I won't compare myself against him. Maybe it'd good for an old-person portfolio but I'm more interested in comparisons with people who want to make money, not protect it like a retired person.

...

I specifically mentioned nunnun in the post you replied to.

Ummm..... nunnun is making money - more money than you!

I recommend B&H broad-based index funds for people in the accumulation phase as well as in the retirement phase. Just adjust the AA if you wish.

I need to ask again, are you delusional, or trolling us? The only other option I can think of is less kind, so I will hold back. Seriously.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I need to ask again, are you delusional, or trolling us? The only other option I can think of is less kind, so I will hold back. Seriously.

I'm still winning though.

 

[jimbee]

I'm still winning though.

I just checked, you're in twelfth place.

 

[Boho]

I just checked, you're in twelve place.

"Twelve is a sublime number"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_(number)#Mathematical_properties

 

[MichaelB]

You can be the legal department for the contest. Personally, I'm interested in whatever meaning the results have even aside from win or lose.

What meaningful conclusions do you have so far? I’m sure many here are interested to learn.

 

[Boho]

What meaningful conclusions do you have so far? I’m sure many here are interested to learn.

They don't know exactly how I pick stocks and I won't say but if I win maybe they'll start thinking "maybe stock picking works for some people." And I'll know that what I've been doing for the last two years of the contest works.

 

[ERD50]

They don't know exactly how I pick stocks and I won't say but if I win maybe they'll start thinking "maybe stock picking works for some people." And I'll know that what I've been doing for the last two years of the contest works.

You have not been listening. If that happens, we would not have learned anything at all.

I know I've said many times that stock picking can (and will) work for some people, some of the time. It will work for some monkeys and darts some of the time. I fully expect ~ half of the players to beat the market, and half to be beaten by the market, but the small sample size and time frame may allow for significant variation from that. And I'm pretty sure I have lots of company, but I won't pretend to speak for others.

We do know that what you've been doing hasn't worked.

-ERD50

 

[jimbee]

"Twelve is a sublime number"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_(number)#Mathematical_properties

Twelve is an interesting number, but I don't think it is equal to one.