Thoughts on TESLA

[Hamlet]

https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/03/end-tesla-stock-the-standard-range-model-3/

Some as our veteran Wall Street scribe has posted here are died in the wool defenders of Elon and his visions, I see the outcome as similar as described by Whitney Tilson here and view the recent Tesla actions as all in for a short term cash grab, it is hypothesized that the requirement to buy Panasonic Batteries is fueling the money losing campaign by Tesla. It certainly makes no sense to me to delete your entire sales force and then send out a communication asking owners to be willing to let their cars be used by random individuals for a test drive.

As is stated in the article and could likely be true @ 250 Elon has borrowed against his shares, if the bank gets nervous it will take and sell them and that is the end of the TESLA story.

The thing that jumped out at me was the purchase obligations for Panasonic batteries. From the 10-K, it looks like they have $4.8 billion in purchase obligations for 2019. That implies selling close to 500k cars by my math. If volume slips, those obligations could squeeze Tesla's cash dramatically.

 

[kcowan]

Record OSHA Violations

OSHA Violations

 

[Ronstar]

^ I don’t know what is more telling - Tesla number of violations/fines, or the excessive number of employees per capacity

 

[bobandsherry]

Guess those who paid more just weeks ago aren't big fans of recent price cuts.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/tesla-owners-protest-price-cuts/

 

[bobandsherry]

Sounds too good to be true, but if 300 mile range battery can be charged in 5 minutes this would be a game changer and create real challenge to Tesla. Have doubts, and no price or other info.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/electric-gt-piech-mark-zero-mysterious-battery/

 

[bobandsherry]

Early adopters feeling foolish, paid more for feature they never had chance to use and now Tesla offers to new buyers for less. Wonder how the "happy" meter will turn out in next survey of Tesla owners.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/teslas-autopilot-bait-and-switch/

 

[ERD50]

^ I don’t know what is more telling - Tesla number of violations/fines, or the excessive number of employees per capacity

I'm willing to cut them some slack here. I think it is fairly normal for a start up, in the growth phase they have been in, to have these sorts of issues. Compliance and efficiency come through experience. But I guess you could say it also goes to show that Tesla/Musk are not some sort of super-humans-machines that are beyond all this.

Since they are talking 2019 run rates about in line with with their Q4-2018, these things should get taken care of. But will they?

Early adopters feeling foolish, paid more for feature they never had chance to use and now Tesla offers to new buyers for less. Wonder how the "happy" meter will turn out in next survey of Tesla owners.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/teslas-autopilot-bait-and-switch/

I dunno. Early adopters should expect prices to come down, it is the price they pay to be first in line. You can't please everybody - would they be happy if prices went up? No!

Though a few years ago, Apple had a bunch of what I will call "whiners" about their price drop, and Apple did something for them. I don't really get it - if it was worth it to you at the time you paid for it, a price drop should be taken in stride.

Sounds too good to be true, but if 300 mile range battery can be charged in 5 minutes this would be a game changer and create real challenge to Tesla. Have doubts, and no price or other info.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/electric-gt-piech-mark-zero-mysterious-battery/

Sure sounds vague and 'vapory'. And if they can charge in 5 minutes versus 30, that means 6x the power delivery, which means 6x the cable size, etc. The chargers would likely need battery packs to buffer that sort of surge. Possible, but it seems like a stretch.

Those batteries, if real, would be great for hybrids. A hybrid has a smaller pack, so being able to take a higher relative burst in/out for regen breaking and acceleration would be a good thing.

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Just found out that the Pasadena city council is set to approve construction of 24 Tesla superchargers as well as 20 direct current fast chargers (for the Leaf, Bolt, and all the others soon to come) at the Pasadena outdoor mall. This is 4 miles from where I live. Approval is expected in one week. Permit/construction should be completed this summer.

 

[NW-Bound]

Sounds too good to be true, but if 300 mile range battery can be charged in 5 minutes this would be a game changer and create real challenge to Tesla. Have doubts, and no price or other info.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/electric-gt-piech-mark-zero-mysterious-battery/

Using other EVs as a guide, you need a 90kWh battery for the 300-mile range. Then, charging it in 5 min or 1/12 hr means a power input of more than 1MW. And the current will be approaching 3,000A for a typical EV battery voltage.

I wonder how big a cable they are using. And what is this mysterious battery that no one knows about, including all current major battery makers?


And here is a 5 MW power substation, good for supercharging 5 EVs at the above stupendous rate.

Sure sounds vague and 'vapory'. And if they can charge in 5 minutes versus 30, that means 6x the power delivery, which means 6x the cable size, etc. The chargers would likely need battery packs to buffer that sort of surge. Possible, but it seems like a stretch...

Would this guy just outright lie and spew BS?

I am sure the world will be watching.

 

[NW-Bound]

Early adopters feeling foolish, paid more for feature they never had chance to use and now Tesla offers to new buyers for less. Wonder how the "happy" meter will turn out in next survey of Tesla owners.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/tesla...it-and-switch/

...I dunno. Early adopters should expect prices to come down, it is the price they pay to be first in line. You can't please everybody - would they be happy if prices went up? No!

The problem here, it seems, is that the early buyers paid more for some features that were promised, but have not been delivered via software updates.

 

[Texas Proud]

Sounds too good to be true, but if 300 mile range battery can be charged in 5 minutes this would be a game changer and create real challenge to Tesla. Have doubts, and no price or other info.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/04/electric-gt-piech-mark-zero-mysterious-battery/

I read this article a few minutes ago and was going to post....


If this is true, it takes out a lot of the problems with an EV... the next question is at what price?

 

[bobandsherry]

I dunno. Early adopters should expect prices to come down, it is the price they pay to be first in line. You can't please everybody - would they be happy if prices went up? No!

-ERD50

Yes, early adopters paid more and expected. BUT guessing you missed the part where I mentioned they paid for something they couldn't use. The feature they paid for is still yet to be released. So those who get in line now pay less and will get access to the feature at same time as those who paid more.

Here's the quote direct from the right up. You still feel this is fair and should be expected by early adopters?

Along with several other changes in the last few days, one thing Tesla has done is*completely reworked how “Enhanced Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving” are differentiated. *Features for both of the systems have been shifted around, and FSD, which for a few months wasn’t even available on the cars, is back and available for purchase.

But one of the changes is that Tesla is offering Model 3 owners who already bought the car, but who didn’t previously purchase Enhanced Autopilot or Full Self-driving,*a discount to purchase the software unlock for either of those systems.

The problem with this is that these systems were originally billed as increasing in price if ordered after delivery, rather than decreasing. *Now, early buyers who took Tesla at their word, and paid full price for these systems, are being left out of the price drops, and will end up having paid more than people who buy it now.

 

[NW-Bound]

It would not surprise me to see a class action lawsuit filed.

Not that it would do the car buyers any good, but lawyers are keen on picking up things like this.

 

[bobandsherry]

Using other EVs as a guide, you need a 90kWh battery for the 300-mile range. Then, charging it in 5 min or 1/12 hr means a power input of more than 1MW. And the current will be approaching 3,000A for a typical EV battery voltage.

I wonder how big a cable they are using. And what is this mysterious battery that no one knows about, including all current major battery makers?


And here is a 5 MW power substation, good for supercharging 5 EVs at the above stupendous rate.

Would this guy just outright lie and spew BS?

I am sure the world will be watching.

Certainly would be bold to make such a claim if it isn't true. As I mentioned I have my doubts, maybe along same type of bold claims that Elizabeth Holmes/Theronos made for blood testing. And that didn't turn out well for Holmes.

 

[bobandsherry]

This article has more "good news" in regards to sales estimates for Q1 and confirms what several of us have already suspected in regards to sales.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246272-tesla-walls-closing

 

[gerntz]

APR 2019 Consumer Reports took Model 3 off its recommended list.

 

[Clone]

More support for the concept that ICE vehicles will soon be dead:

When Rockville Centre native Dean Kamen invented the Segway, the electric self-balancing scooter, in 2001, he envisioned it would “be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy.”

While the sales may not have lived up to the extraordinary hype leading up to the product’s launch at Bryant Park in Manhatttan, the two-wheeled device alternately known as the human transporter did become a cultural icon that changed the world nonetheless.

“I don’t know if people will be using Segways to get around cities in 20 years’ time, but I do know they won’t be using cars,” Kamen, 66, told The Economist in 2010. “The financial, emotional, political and environmental costs will be prohibitive.”

 

[gerntz]

^ OK that you think so. Me? meh.

 

[bobandsherry]

More support for the concept that ICE vehicles will soon be dead:

If true, still doesn't mean Tesla will be the winner. Old saying is "pioneer's get arrows, settlers get the land". Time will tell.

 

[ERD50]

Yes, early adopters paid more and expected. BUT guessing you missed the part where I mentioned they paid for something they couldn't use. The feature they paid for is still yet to be released. So those who get in line now pay less and will get access to the feature at same time as those who paid more.

Here's the quote direct from the right up. You still feel this is fair and should be expected by early adopters?

Looks like two issues to me. Price drops, and the vaporware aspect. I understand the two combined sort of multiply the effect, but they still seem separate to me.

Personally, I'd be more upset about the vaporware. How much depends on just how it was sold. But I think Tesla is on shaky ground to charge for 'real soon' features. But if people are willing to pay, despite Musk's promise history - well, I'm a Libertarian in that regard.

I just don't see how "fair" enters into it. A company is free to drop prices, or raise them.
Especially on new products. People can be mad about it if they want. The company can try to do something for them if they want.

I think maybe the bigger picture here is if a lot of Tesla owners are upset, that's a sign that the "honeymoon" may be over. Maybe Tesla can no longer rely on excited early adopters as customers? There were other signs of this, wasn't there uproar over charger costs?

-ERD50

 

[Hamlet]

This article has more "good news" in regards to sales estimates for Q1 and confirms what several of us have already suspected in regards to sales.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246272-tesla-walls-closingView attachment 30955

If you combine those sales numbers with their purchase obligations from Panasonic, you get a really ugly picture. They could face a cash crunch this year if those numbers are accurate and Panasonic holds them to their purchase obligations.

 

[ERD50]

It's tough not to think TSLA is in distress. It would be one thing if the recent store closing looked like a strategy, but it looks a lot more to me like a reaction.

Mar 1, 2019 - Tesla Inc. plans to shutter most of its retail stores...

but recently...


Jan 17, 2019 Tesla renews lobbying efforts to open more retail stores in New Jersey

Tesla, the California-based electric carmaker, is revving up its lobbying efforts in New Jersey to open new retail store locations, arguing that additional brick-and-mortar presence aligns with the clean energy goals of the Murphy administration.

"Revving up lobbying efforts" - well, that's a longer term strategy, right? And less than two months later they close stores?

Dec 11 2018 - Tesla expands its store network in the U.S. by about 10% in just one week. (insideevs.com)

Dec 10, 2018 - Tesla is launching a new retail offensive with a focus on malls. (electrek.co)


And not so long ago...

June 15, 2018 - Tesla expands Model 3 display fleet to 17 more stores. (electrek.co)

It's hard to put a positive spin on that, I just don't see it as anything other than a desperate move. TSLA was down 3.2% yesterday, and down another 3.5% as I type. Yikes!

-ERD50

 

[ncbill]

My bold above. This is generally not true that gasoline engines have fuel delivery at that PSI. In the case of tank pumps, we are looking at 100 psi max (and usually much lower), and that's only if the car is powered up.

Where high pressure fuel pumps are in use in a gasoline-fueled car, it is a "direct injection" type delivery (ex. GDI in Hyundai/Kia), and that pump runs off the camshaft or off the main drive pulley (many diesels) into a high strength steel fuel rail. So it's highly unlikely that an "event" would render the GDI type pump to operate in a damaged mode in the event of a head on collision, for instance.

So we generally don't have fuel spraying all over the place in these fires. It could happen, but it's not a significant probability.

Most recent vehicles (the ones ERD50 thinks are most comparable with Teslas) have been using GDI for some time now.

And it doesn't take a collision to breach the fuel line...mechanical failure of the line itself or an electrical fire in another under-hood component will do just fine.

EDIT: I will also confess to having a Panasonic plasma, which I will stop using when you pry it from my cold, dead....

 

[ncbill]

And a Tesla has far more surface area exposed. The only way to know how these potential problems play out in real life is to obtain real data on comparably aged vehicles.

As I've said, I'm not making a claim on this one way or the other, because I don't have the data. It's only on observation on my part, that with all that battery pack area that close to the ground, that I don't consider it a slam-dunk that a Tesla will experience fewer fires than a gas car. But I also don't rule it out. If you want to claim Teslas will experience fewer fires, you need to present the data to be taken seriously.

-ERD50

Have they stopped installing skid plates?

https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-ad...-shield-and-aluminum-deflector-plates-model-s

IIRC it's the same for the M3.

 

[kcowan]

"Revving up lobbying efforts" - well, that's a longer term strategy, right? And less than two months later they close stores?
...
It's hard to put a positive spin on that, I just don't see it as anything other than a desperate move.

Yes I agree. This is a troubling about face. I suspect The Board insisted on it as a cost-cutting measure. Buying a new technology car by mail-order? And with a demonstrated poor return policy? See you in two years after the dust settles.

(Probably prefer a Model Y anyway...)