Thoughts on TESLA

[bobandsherry]

This is progress on improving charge times, Tesla now at 15 minutes. So perhaps the Piëch Automotive announcement of 5 minute charge may not be that hard to believe?

Tesla says new V3 Supercharger stations will reduce recharging times by 50%

 

[ERD50]

This is progress on improving charge times, Tesla now at 15 minutes. So perhaps the Piëch Automotive announcement of 5 minute charge may not be that hard to believe?

Tesla says new V3 Supercharger stations will reduce recharging times by 50%

Devil's in the details. They are not comparable.


Piëch claims 80% charge in under 5 minutes, that's ~ 249 miles on their claimed 311 mile range. That's 249 miles in 5 minutes versus Tesla's (proposed) claimed 75 miles in 5 minutes, 3.32x faster.

Tesla is talking about 75 miles worth of charge in 5 minutes. The rest of their claim is kinda fuzzy. Something about average charge times of 15 minutes? Based on some sort of typical usage from their data?

Hard to sort out, but one reason the 40 minute supercharger times are always with respect to 80% charge is that you can't fast charge the last 20% on a Lithium battery - that has to be topped of at a slow rate.

So it might be that the "75 miles in 5 minutes" is only for a portion of the charge curve, maybe even more restricted than just below 80%?

From wiki on present SC:

They take about 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100% on the original 85 kWh Model S.

For the incremental 30% above the 50% the charge rate drops about in half, and in half again for the final 20%.

And assuming that not every Supercharge user goes for the full 40 minutes every time, that 15 minute 'average' number is fuzzy (unless it is explained elsewhere). The 85 kWh MS has an EPA range of ~ 265, so 20 minutes gets you 132 miles so about 33 miles in 5 minutes.

So the new number is about 2x faster, but for what %?

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

Devil's in the details. They are not comparable.

Piëch claims 80% charge in under 5 minutes, that's ~ 249 miles on their claimed 311 mile range. That's 249 miles in 5 minutes versus Tesla's (proposed) claimed 75 miles in 5 minutes, 3.32x faster.


-ERD50

Just saying that Tesla is already finding way to significantly improve the charge time, don't think anyone saw that coming as I heard nothing prior to this announcement. So perhaps Piëch has found way to improve battery design and charging. Could all be vaporware, but I've read some other forums where there is discussion on some alternative material for creating battery packs. Could be interesting, could be a big old flop.

 

[ERD50]

Just saying that Tesla is already finding way to significantly improve the charge time, don't think anyone saw that coming as I heard nothing prior to this announcement. So perhaps Piëch has found way to improve battery design and charging. Could all be vaporware, but I've read some other forums where there is discussion on some alternative material for creating battery packs. Could be interesting, could be a big old flop.

It is interesting, and a positive for Tesla. Being able to top off 75 miles in 5 minutes could be just what someone needs once in a while.

I don't think it has anything to do with anything new from Tesla on battery technology, I think they are just allocating more power to the SuperChargers, and I'm guessing that they have enough data and time to have confidence that their batteries can handle this charge rate on occasion. To get a bit more technical for a moment, 75 miles at a typical 3 miles/kWh would be 25 kWhrs, which is 1/4 the capacity of a 100 kWh model. So you are charging 1/4 of the capacity in 1/12th the time, so that is a "C" rating of 3, compared to the nominal rating of charging/discharging the full capacity in an hour (C=1). So a C3 is not outrageously high - should be do-able.

For all of Musk's hyperbole on so many things, it does seem they have been pretty conservative on battery claims. Maybe the power management engineers have been 'winning' that conversation? Maybe those engineers need to talk to the 'Auto-Pilot' group?

As far as Piëch, I'll hold off o too much speculation, and see if they can actually demonstrate something.

A problem I see for EVs in general is these brand specific fast-chargers. For EVs to gain broader acceptance into the market segment that makes more longer trips, it sure would be better if all the fast-chargers were generic. Imagine if you pulled into a 'Ford" gas station with your GM car, and were told you can only get 1/4 tank unless you want to hang out for an hour?

-ERD50

 

[Lakewood90712]

Is this plausible ?

Model 3 production moves all to China. X ,S , and any new roadster on low volume line in Fremont. Existing Model 3 line in Fremont becomes model Y line, once the China Factory is up and running.

Battery and parts production both in US and China.

Imports and exports as needed should cancel out tariffs.

 

[Running_Man]

Is this plausible ?

Model 3 production moves all to China. X ,S , and any new roadster on low volume line in Fremont. Existing Model 3 line in Fremont becomes model Y line, once the China Factory is up and running.

Battery and parts production both in US and China.

Imports and exports as needed should cancel out tariffs.

It says all you need to know about TESLA when a retirement forum becomes a knowledgeable source for potential methods on how to run a car company.

 

[Ready]

With the price drops from last week I decided it was time to get rid of the Lexus and replace it with a new Model 3. I posted ad on Craigslist for the Lexus and placed an order for the Standard Range Plus model. Lead time was quoted two weeks so I figured I had plenty of time to sell the Lexus.

Well, to my surprise the Lexus sold on Wednesday. So I asked Tesla to match me to an inventory model so that I could get it right away. They found a mid range model for me and arranged a delivery for yesterday.

When I got the service center to pick it up I could see the doors and hood had some pretty bad panel gaps. The car was built in January 2019. I know they had this problem with early builds but I was surprised to see it in a 2019 model.

After reviewing a variety of options we determined the only practical course of action was to place a new order and wait several weeks for another car. I let them know that I sold my Lexus based on their commitment to have me a car that day. After a couple of rounds of conversations with the delivery coordinator and his manager they handed me the keys to a model S Performance car and told me to keep it until my new car arrives. And they upgraded my wheels on the new order to the 19” models, a $1,500 option, at no charge.

So while I was disappointed in the poor build quality of the car they wanted to sell me, I left overall feeling very good about how they handled it. And now I have a free Model S loaner to play with until my car arrives.

The only thing I find a bit comical about all of this is that when they handed me the keys to the Model S they didn’t ask me to sign any paperwork acknowledging I was in receipt of the car, or any of the typical things you would see in a rental agreement. They just literally handed me the keys and told me to keep it until my new car comes in, which will be at least two weeks from now. Very strange but that’s how Tesla operates I guess.

 

[NW-Bound]

...I don't think it has anything to do with anything new from Tesla on battery technology, I think they are just allocating more power to the SuperChargers, and I'm guessing that they have enough data and time to have confidence that their batteries can handle this charge rate on occasion. To get a bit more technical for a moment, 75 miles at a typical 3 miles/kWh would be 25 kWhrs, which is 1/4 the capacity of a 100 kWh model. So you are charging 1/4 of the capacity in 1/12th the time, so that is a "C" rating of 3, compared to the nominal rating of charging/discharging the full capacity in an hour (C=1). So a C3 is not outrageously high - should be do-able.

For all of Musk's hyperbole on so many things, it does seem they have been pretty conservative on battery claims. Maybe the power management engineers have been 'winning' that conversation? Maybe those engineers need to talk to the 'Auto-Pilot' group?

...

The difference is that with the autopilot, if the owner gets killed or kills someone else, it's the owner's fault. Tesla's caveat is plain about that.

With the battery, the company is liable for the warranty. Yet, super-duper charging/discharging will wear out most batteries. So, I would not be surprised if the cars will display a screen like this when you initiate a charge at this new higher rate:

"Super charging will shorten your battery life, hence to be used only in an emergency. You are allowed xx such charges before the warranty is void. You now have 22 charges left. Press Y to continue".

Have we forgotten the story of a guy whose supercharging was throttled because his battery was "weak" compared to the normal Tesla car?

Once you put in the right caveat, the more your customers supercharge, the more you win!

 

[Lakewood90712]

It says all you need to know about TESLA when a retirement forum becomes a knowledgeable source for potential methods on how to run a car company.

I had sent my plan to Tesla HQ via E mail early today. Just got a personal E mail reply from my new best friend Elon : " Thanks for the advise. I know you are wealthy and don't need any more money, so, as a token of my appreciation, I am sending you some really cool My other car is a Tesla bumper stickers via FedEx. Thanks, E. "

 

[ls99]

The real dirt... in Tesla

Tesla cars appear to be very good at collecting dirt. In northern climates.
https://electrek.co/2019/03/05/tesla-model-3-design-flaw-underbody/
"
In some more extreme cases, he extracted over 35 lbs of dirt from a Model 3’s underbody:

"

 

[Ronstar]

Just saw a Tesla with a “Student Driver” sticker. I’m not sure if driving should be taught in Teslas for a while yet.

 

[Running_Man]

I think it is likely that Elon Musk is about to be replaced at TESLA. Tesla just announced that the ill thought out closing of sales locations is stopped, probably because it saves little money as leases are enforceable. I suspect ELON will become figurehead of TESLA very soon.

Wonder how our connected fan boy from the Wall Street Journal is thinking about all of this.

 

[JoeWras]

Arrest made in supercharger vandalism case.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/08/tesla-supercharger-vandal-arrested/

 

[bobandsherry]

I think it is likely that Elon Musk is about to be replaced at TESLA. Tesla just announced that the ill thought out closing of sales locations is stopped, probably because it saves little money as leases are enforceable. I suspect ELON will become figurehead of TESLA very soon.

Wonder how our connected fan boy from the Wall Street Journal is thinking about all of this.

Seems there is indeed a gap in management as how do announce closures one week and then back peddle so quickly on that decision.

This article concludes:

It’s either turning into a poorly managed transition or it is intentionally made that way to push out employees like some are suspecting.

I don’t know which is worse. Probably the latter, which would reek of corporate greed and would be disappointing to see from Tesla.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/08/tesla-freezes-store-closure-layoffs-chaotic-sales-strategy/

 

[stephenson]

This is a great thread ... while I don’t have a Tesla, I do find the concept of all electric to be interesting. Do have a buddy who is in tech industry in Southern California who has one.

Two points keep popping into my head:
- cars are utility items and if one can only drive them limited distances, they are then speciality utility items only useful sometimes ... great idea for inner city or short commuters, though
- Musk is a bit of a nutcase, and while it is interesting he invested his own money in the beginning, he is using others’ money now, but still behaves as if it is his money, which means he is skirting the legal restrictions all the time, something he chafes at. Professional management might slough off the veneer of cult of personality and doom the entire company.

These two thoughts lead me to believe investing in Musk or Tesla has more risk than I want.

 

[ERD50]

...

When I got the service center to pick it up I could see the doors and hood had some pretty bad panel gaps. The car was built in January 2019. I know they had this problem with early builds but I was surprised to see it in a 2019 model.
...

So while I was disappointed in the poor build quality of the car they wanted to sell me, I left overall feeling very good about how they handled it. And now I have a free Model S loaner to play with until my car arrives. ...

While it's good that you feel they responded well, I'd be concerned that they still have such obvious quality issues. What about the stuff you can't see? Poor quality control in hidden places could have long term reliability, and very possibly safety issues down the road.

I'd guess that not having you sign for the loaner is another sign of their newness in this business. That just does not seem right. I got a loaner recently, and GM made me sign some documents for their protection. Just seems prudent, and good business. I suspect Tesla will get burned on this at some point, and will change. I doubt GM does it w/o a reason.

-ERD50

 

[Chuckanut]

- Musk is a bit of a nutcase, and while it is interesting he invested his own money in the beginning, he is using others’ money now, but still behaves as if it is his money, which means he is skirting the legal restrictions all the time, something he chafes at. Professional management might slough off the veneer of cult of personality and doom the entire company.

At times there seems to be two Elon Musks. One is the Tesla guy who does dumb things like spend 5 seconds out of a 90 minutes interview taking a puff of weed. Why do it at all? He over promises tech in his cars which are already technical marvels. Then he baits a government agency (SEC) in ways that just seem silly to me.

Another is the Musk who lands rocket boosters on barges out in the ocean, launches the world's more powerful rocket, takes a huge amount of the commercial launch business from Europe, China and Russia, just successfully test drove the Crew Dragon space craft to the ISS and back, and very humbly credits a government agency (NASA) for much of his company's success.

Will the real Elon Musk please stand up.

 

[JoeWras]

Re: The two Elons...

I'd even say what he's done with Tesla has been brilliant. But he's on the verge of tossing it away by doing some of these things that give the non-fans a lot of ammo.

Edison did a lot of weird things too. He did not like people calling his baby "ugly." Sound familiar? Edison electrocuted animals, including an elephant, to prove how terrible AC power is. Today, AC power is the standard, and for a good reason. A reason Edison knew, but denied because it wasn't his original business.

Wait! This was an accident! I used the example of Edison's fight against AC, which was Tesla's thing. Didn't mean it that way. Irony.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think Musk is cracking under financial pressures that Tesla is facing. He is a billionaire on paper. Nearly all of his wealth is tied up in shares of his companies, which he cannot easily liquidate without panicking other shareholders. All of his mansions are mortgaged.

He could easily lose it all. Perhaps the thought of that drove him crazy.

 

[jazz4cash]

With the price drops from last week I decided it was time to get rid of the Lexus and replace it with a new Model 3. I posted ad on Craigslist for the Lexus and placed an order for the Standard Range Plus model. Lead time was quoted two weeks so I figured I had plenty of time to sell the Lexus.

Well, to my surprise the Lexus sold on Wednesday. So I asked Tesla to match me to an inventory model so that I could get it right away. They found a mid range model for me and arranged a delivery for yesterday.

When I got the service center to pick it up I could see the doors and hood had some pretty bad panel gaps. The car was built in January 2019. I know they had this problem with early builds but I was surprised to see it in a 2019 model.

After reviewing a variety of options we determined the only practical course of action was to place a new order and wait several weeks for another car. I let them know that I sold my Lexus based on their commitment to have me a car that day. After a couple of rounds of conversations with the delivery coordinator and his manager they handed me the keys to a model S Performance car and told me to keep it until my new car arrives. And they upgraded my wheels on the new order to the 19” models, a $1,500 option, at no charge.

So while I was disappointed in the poor build quality of the car they wanted to sell me, I left overall feeling very good about how they handled it. And now I have a free Model S loaner to play with until my car arrives.

The only thing I find a bit comical about all of this is that when they handed me the keys to the Model S they didn’t ask me to sign any paperwork acknowledging I was in receipt of the car, or any of the typical things you would see in a rental agreement. They just literally handed me the keys and told me to keep it until my new car comes in, which will be at least two weeks from now. Very strange but that’s how Tesla operates I guess.

Congratulations!
Your experience highlights the value of having sales centers/dealers vs doing everything online. I suspect younger consumers don't care as much as us geezers that want someone to look us in the eye, apologize and give us something for free as compensation!

 

[NW-Bound]

Congratulations!
Your experience highlights the value of having sales centers/dealers vs doing everything online. I suspect younger consumers don't care as much as us geezers that want someone to look us in the eye, apologize and give us something for free as compensation!

Young buyers are excited to be able to jump into a new car and drive off.

They don't give a diddly squat about gaps in body panels, or some misaligned fenders.

Geezers are too picky. Who wants them for consumers?

 

[Totoro]

I suspect younger consumers don't care as much as us geezers that want someone to look us in the eye, apologize and give us something for free as compensation!

I can order online, delivered to my door and have 14 days (by law) to return a car. Which, in fact, I did once.

You still have physical delivery or pickup, so the looking in the eye stuff can still happen if you want.

 

[Running_Man]

And today, Tesla’s head engineer, resigned without any job lined up, supposedly because of the press conference announcing the model Y to be released.

 

[bobandsherry]

And today, Tesla’s head engineer, resigned without any job lined up, supposedly because of the press conference announcing the model Y to be released.

Not sure if he was the Head Engineer (not even sure what that title is), only see him mentioned as VP Engineering. Musk is the Chief Engineer. But he took no time in updating his LinkedIn. I've read it may be related to the Model Y, perhaps it's just not ready for being announced and Musk put the cart before the horse?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-michael-schwekutsch-a75b0310/

Back in July another top engineer left Tesla.
Tesla lost top engineer just before hitting Elon Musk’s Model 3 goal

 

[Totoro]

Young buyers are excited to be able to jump into a new car and drive off.

Not sure if that's true at all, especially for new cars. Significant part of your net worth goes in such a device the younger you are.

What is (probably?) true is that younger buyers have done more research online upfront, and obviously less experienced in asking the right questions on the spot.

Which is why the smarter ones take a knowledgeable person with them.