Shooting for >100%
Sure, 80% success is no different from 100%... 4 out of 5 times.
But I have six decades of data which say that when the odds are fifty-fifty, I lose 90% of the time. So for me, 80% probability of success isn't good enough. I am targeting 100% plus a cushion.
Statistics deal with populations and sample sets. Out of one million chances, X percent will succeed, 1-X will fail, etc. But I don't have a million chances. I have only one retirement and it had better be successful.
***
There is some great stuff here:
3- I had a very good sense of what my expenses were; I've had my checkbook online since MacMoney and tracked even small cash outlays. However, my expenses never matched my plan.
This is my biggest concern. I know what my current expenses are, but they reflect being stuck in the salt mines for the best hours of each day. Once DW and I have lots more free time, we will undoubtedly undertake more activities, most of which won't be free. They might not all be expensive, but they won't be free.
4- I had been planning for early retirement before I got laid off but expected to do it a few years later. I would have liked additional cushion, especially when the market dropped last year. I've always held on through downturns before and did this time too, but it was more stressful than when I had real income coming in. My feelings were a surprise to me, because I had done the math before retiring and knew what I could expect to "lose" in a downturn.
People change; that includes me. My confidence in my own plan varies every day. I could hand in my notice feeling great about my plan, but I am certain I won't know how good I'll feel about it the on day I clock out.
5- When I worked, I never budgeted, because my desired lifestyle fit within my income. I haven't quite figured out yet whether I need to be on a budget now or not. There are some days when I feel I should be cautious about even small outlays and I really wish I could spend without even thinking about it like I used to, but there are also days when I trust the numbers.
This also is bullseye. DW & I don't operate under a rigorous budget. What we do is know what "fits" within our regular spending pattern and keep to that. When an extraordinary, i.e. "lumpy", expense looms we have a special discussion about it and figure out to to fit it in. This was an essential skill when we were young and poor, and it just kind of evolved into part of our daily approach to spending. Impulse buys, when they occur, are sufficiently infrequent or sufficiently minor that they are negligible as far as our overall spend pattern.
But I love the idea of not having to worry about every single purchase. The following inner monologue was excerpted from my recent trip to the grocery store. "Do we need more mushrooms? I'm not certain but I think we're running low. I'm in the produce section right now, and portobellos are on sale. Hmm, $2.99 a pound. That's a good price. They're not on the list, but I think I'll pick up a few anyway. We'll eat them before next Tuesday anyway, and life is short."
P.S. Note that there is a big difference between 3 ounces of mushrooms once a month and a new suit, rifle, computer or trip. A buck and a half is a rounding error; a thousand bucks isn't.