Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

$293.01, so I lost about $12,000. I shorted about 5 things in the last several months. I may have come out about even but I didn't add it up. I don't know whether the cash I had during that time hurt or helped.

Also, I bought SPY and IVV.

8/13/2019 10:24 AM Stock: Buy at Limit IVV 2000 $294.16 $588,324.99 Acct value: $1,208,656.11
8/13/2019 10:24 AM Stock: Buy at Limit SPY 2000 $292.43 $584,864.99 Acct value: $1,208,661.10
8/13/2019 10:19 AM Cover Stock: Cover at Market SPY 2000 $293.01 $586,024.99 Acct value: $1,208,666.09

So you went short about a week ago, covered at a higher price, and now are buying near that high price?

That's some strategy ya' got there. Let's see how it works.

Would it be alright with you if we used your username as a verb to mean "identifying alternative metrics to win by when the original relevant one isn't going so well"?

I think sengsational already beat you to it. He said something like 'I don't mean to Boho this...', I think it was in that 'Magic Formula' thread.

Ahhh, here it is, close:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/magic-formula-tracker-82446.html

Here's another attempt to Boho the results of this experiment...

-ERD50

 

[pb4uski]

So I used Yahoo finance. Lets see if I could get this right. If an indexer bought SPY at the start of the contest:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY...82400&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

March 29, 2017 SPY adjusted closing price: 225.63
1,000,000 / 225.63 = 4,432 shares

Aug 09, 2019 SPY adjusted closing price: 291.62

291.62 x 4,432 = 1,292,459.84

adjusted for 8/12/2019, 2:55 PM EDT (SPY down 1.45%):
1,292,459.84 - 1.45% = 1,273,719.17

And I currently have $1,217,821.08, so I'm $55,898.09 behind the theoretical indexer which is equal to 4.32% according to This. That's for over two years so it's fairly close.

Au contraire.... you got spanked.... bad!

	SPY	Bozo	Difference
XIRR	10.74%	8.66%	2.07%
03/29/17	-1,000,000.00	-1,000,000.00
08/12/19	1,273,719.17	1,217,821.08	55,898.09

P.S. I'm assuming your numbers are correct... which could be dangerous.

 

[Boho]

So you went short about a week ago, covered at a higher price, and now are buying near that high price?

That's some strategy ya' got there. Let's see how it works.

There will probably be trade talks. I expect that announcement soon. I wanted to cover the last short and start buying today or very soon because of that, plus now there's meaningful upward momentum, unlike China's recently announced good news which hardly mattered to me and made me short the market three times as it gained. With those three shorts I figured it doesn't matter if there was some influence that countered tariffs this time around. That would be temporary and the pressure of tariffs would increase. But now the good news looks to be coming in the near future rather than being a thing from this past quarter and I need to be long.

 

[ERD50]

There will probably be trade talks. I expect that announcement soon. I wanted to cover the last short and start buying today or very soon because of that, plus now there's meaningful upward momentum, unlike China's recently announced good news which hardly mattered to me and made me short the market three times as it gained. With those three shorts I figured it doesn't matter if there was some influence that countered tariffs this time around. That would be temporary and the pressure of tariffs would increase. But now the good news looks to be coming in the near future rather than being a thing from this past quarter and I need to be long.

...

Also, I bought SPY and IVV.

8/13/2019 10:24 AM Stock: Buy at Limit IVV 2000 $294.16 $588,324.99 Acct value: $1,208,656.11
8/13/2019 10:24 AM Stock: Buy at Limit SPY 2000 $292.43 $584,864.99 Acct value: $1,208,661.10
8/13/2019 10:19 AM Cover Stock: Cover at Market SPY 2000 $293.01 $586,024.99 Acct value: $1,208,666.09

Impeccable timing.

You covered your SPY short on 8/13 @ $293, we are now at $285.63, with an earlier day low of $283.97. You could have cleared almost $20,000 on that one trade!

And now you've bought at $292.43. Well, at least I can wish you luck on that trade, but I'd also be fine if the market just ran sideways for a long time, and maybe work off some of the 'over-value' (based on the CAPE measurements).

Shhhh - we might wake up nunnun.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I didn't read a lot on this (not even threads here) but...didn't people see this treasury bond issue getting near for days? I'm sure I heard about the inverse whatnot at some point within the last year or so but I feel I wasn't warned enough recently enough.

I think I made about $1000-$2000 on average per trade within the last year or more. My distance from the performance of the S&P was closing fast enough for a long time, but I had to keep trading. Now I may stop for a while.

 

[SecondCor521]

I didn't read a lot on this (not even threads here) but...didn't people see this treasury bond issue getting near for days? I'm sure I heard about the inverse whatnot at some point within the last year or so but I feel I wasn't warned enough recently enough.

Yes, people have been seeing it getting nearer for several months now. It's been talked about regularly on CNBC for a while now.

The universe has no obligation to warn you about stuff.

 

[Boho]

It's Burger King's fault for replacing CNN with their useless Burger King TV station.

 

[Boho]

This is why I don't have firm exit strategies or firm trading plans of any kind. Today the market was significantly up, then China said they would retaliate, then it was down. I'm not going to plan for something like that happening all in one day.

 

[Boho]

...instead of taking crazy fliers on stocks of companies you know absolutely nothing about, you've recently stuck mostly to index investing...

I'm going back to crazy fliers for now. I bought 1000 shares of ANTM at $268.06.

 

[pb4uski]

..... My distance from the performance of the S&P was closing fast enough for a long time....

Huh? As of 12 days ago the SPY was spanking you since the beginning of the contest. See post#1427.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Would it be alright with you if we used your username as a verb to mean "identifying alternative metrics to win by when the original relevant one isn't going so well"?

[emoji4]

The Cowboys may not have won any Super Bowls lately, but our cheerleaders sure Boho’d the rest of the league with their beauty. And how ‘bout that stadium?!

Not sure why I even glanced at this thread. I consider it the longest running troll thread in known board history.

 

[pb4uski]

.... Not sure why I even glanced at this thread. I consider it the longest running troll thread in known board history.

Perhaps, but the rationalizations are somewhat entertaining.

 

[Boho]

Huh? As of 12 days ago the SPY was spanking you since the beginning of the contest. See post#1427.

I'm talking about the last 1-1/2 years. Someone did an end-of-second-year comparison between me and the S&P for the previous 12 months (which I think was a bit less than 12 months), and I was a bit behind, and like a month later I had outperformed the index over the previous year.

 

[ERD50]

I'm going back to crazy fliers for now. I bought 1000 shares of ANTM at $268.06.

And exactly how do you identify the fliers from the lead balloons?

And even more importantly, identify the fliers that the rest of the market has not identified, because if the market has identified them, their price has already been driven up to levels on par with the market.

Do you still think the market looks at a stock and says "Wow, that stock is poised to fly way higher than the market, but I'm not going to buy it."? It doesn't work that way, the market, as it sees it, drives up the prices to par. In general, there are always exceptions because there are always unknowns. But those are unknowns, to you and the market. And they go both ways (fliers and lead balloons).

I'm talking about the last 1-1/2 years. Someone did an end-of-second-year comparison between me and the S&P for the previous 12 months (which I think was a bit less than 12 months), and I was a bit behind, and like a month later I had outperformed the index over the previous year.

Give it a break. This was your contest, you set it for three years. You are behind, and very likely will be behind at the end of the contest. That's the measure, not some cherry picked time frame where you outperformed. Even I can outrun a world class runner in a marathon, for a while.

If that cherry picked time frame means anything, than so does the cherry picked time frame where you under-performed. As I said early on, this would be expected - a less diversified portfolio can be expected to be more volatile than a more diversified one. All you are seeing is volatility, not skill.

Do you actually have a strategy? It isn't apparent. As close as I can come is:

Rock, Paper, Scissors

?-?-?

Profits!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

And exactly how do you identify the fliers from the lead balloons?...Do you actually have a strategy?

I don't get specific about that but there's a lot of decision making and only part of my method is easily explained. I thought I read a theory that stock picking ability is genetic but all I found in a search is something about genetic algorithms. I think you need to be a good decision maker. It's hard to teach.

 

[ERD50]

I don't get specific about that but there's a lot of decision making and only part of my method is easily explained. I thought I read a theory that stock picking ability is genetic but all I found in a search is something about genetic algorithms. I think you need to be a good decision maker. It's hard to teach.

Or maybe it was "geriatric", and only old people can pick stocks, or maybe I read something else, sometime, somewhere, by somebody?

IOW, it's all a bunch of hooey. As demonstrated by your random performance.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Another successful day trade:

edit: I just bought EHTH and MSGN

 

[pb4uski]

I'm talking about the last 1-1/2 years. Someone did an end-of-second-year comparison between me and the S&P for the previous 12 months (which I think was a bit less than 12 months), and I was a bit behind, and like a month later I had outperformed the index over the previous year.

Yeah... keep doing comparisons until you find a period that you win, then boisterously declare victory.... then you may have a career in marketing for a managed mutual fund.

 

[ERD50]

Another successful day trade:

Successful?

You made 0.39% on that trade, note the ZERO-dot, and I rounded up to be generous.

269105.01 ∕ 268064.99≈ 1.0038797

Meantime, while I was out, and nunnun was probably napping, SPY was up...waiting for the close.... OK, 0.80%, a more than double your 'successful' trade.

You can call it successful if it makes you feel better, but it isn't going to help you win the contest against a do-nothing buy-and-hold robot, (or doorstop, after all it does not need to do anything). Looks like that trade put you further behind?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Looks like that trade put you further behind?

More than half of it was on margin. Any gain from margin is gravy and my core was the S&P. Also, I bought it yesterday and the market was down then. Anyway, I updated my last post with my latest two trades.

 

[ERD50]

Margin works both ways. So what we can expect is even higher volatility. Could be positive, could be negative.

You have had some very bad months in the past. If you repeat one of those, on margin, well....

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Or maybe it was "geriatric", and only old people can pick stocks, or maybe I read something else, sometime, somewhere, by somebody?

IOW, it's all a bunch of hooey. As demonstrated by your random performance.

-ERD50

I think I found it.

A Combination of Dopamine Genes Predicts Success by Professional Wall Street Traders

What determines success on Wall Street? This study examined if genes affecting dopamine levels of professional traders were associated with their career tenure. Sixty professional Wall Street traders were genotyped and compared to a control group who did not trade stocks. [blah, blah, blah] This evidence suggests there may be a genetic basis for the traits that make one a successful trader.

I did 23andme. I should check.

 

[SecondCor521]

I think I found it.

A Combination of Dopamine Genes Predicts Success by Professional Wall Street Traders

I did 23andme. I should check.

From the article:

"It is difficult to gauge an individual trader's success based on portfolio performance because returns depend on overall activity in the stock market, growth of the economy, as well as the quality of their company's research. We therefore used years working as a measure of success as a trader since low performing traders are routinely laid off and typically move into different professions."

Emphasis added. Quite ironic that you found an NIH article where the authors boho'ed their research.

 

[ERD50]

From the article:

"It is difficult to gauge an individual trader's success based on portfolio performance because returns depend on overall activity in the stock market, growth of the economy, as well as the quality of their company's research. We therefore used years working as a measure of success as a trader since low performing traders are routinely laid off and typically move into different professions."

Emphasis added. Quite ironic that you found an NIH article where the authors boho'ed their research.

Very good!

Yes, before I read your response, I noticed that even within Boho's post, the excerpt was "examined if genes affecting dopamine levels of professional traders were associated with their career tenure". Hmmm, why not portfolio performance versus a benchmark, like, you know, a Total Market fund?

How long was Madoff's career tenure? Let's see, wiki says (Holy Cow!):
"Madoff founded Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC in 1960, and was its chairman until his arrest (December 11, 2008)...".

48 years! I guess that makes him an exceptional stock picker! So good, he had to turn to a Ponzi scheme. Oh, boy.

Ponzi, a mere 13 years. A piker.

Maybe Boho does share that gene? Maybe someday, "Ponzi", "Madoff" and "Boho" will all be used as synonyms for shady investments? Will we need to wait 13 to 40 years?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I just bought EHTH and MSGN

EHTH worked out well. I'm trying to sell MSGN now at a profit but I can only sell 1/4 of it because of volume restrictions. I'm selling it at market. I bought more yesterday and now I have 30000 shares.