Coronavirus - Health aspects

[brewer12345]

I am not a sophisticated trader but I agree that we are due for a retrenchment. This may be the time to take MRDs (all in Wellington) and invest in treasury bond funds. Brewer, is this a wise approach to preserve our gains?

What about total bond funds/etfs?

If the commode hits the windmill, you can expect to see treasury rates dive and prices rise. Of course, this could just be a blip and the party could be back in full swing next week...

 

[candrew]

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[SecondCor521]

It sure pounded down my Carnival and Royal Caribbean stocks. I might unload some of those and see if I can pick them up again when this blows over.

Ah, the ol' "Sell low, buy higher" approach. Good luck!

 

[audreyh1]

Treasury rates have been dropping.

Since we rebalanced first week Jan, we’re set to rid another year’s rollercoaster.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Never more then a temporary effect.

 

[USGrant1962]

Never more then a temporary effect.

That matches my memory. I don't ever remember one of these health scares really affecting the economy.

 

[brewer12345]

That matches my memory. I don't ever remember one of these health scares really affecting the economy.

None of them did. OTOH, we have never seen the equivalent of the population of California quarantined (including people who try to get out being shot at by the military).

 

[bobandsherry]

Never more then a temporary effect.

Interesting chart, thanks for sharing

 

[bobandsherry]

None of them did. OTOH, we have never seen the equivalent of the population of California quarantined (including people who try to get out being shot at by the military).

How many were mostly centered exclusively in China? A communist government can do a lot of things that other governments can't or won't.

 

[brewer12345]

How many were mostly centered exclusively in China? A communist government can do a lot of things that other governments can't or won't.

The Chinese gubmint has a long history of being less than truthful when it suits them. That being the case, I am paying more attention to what they are doing rather than what they are saying. I don't think I have ever seen a quarantine or other action on this scale outside of large scale wars.

 

[Brat]

The market is driven by sentiment. There is no doubt that many are getting ill in China, otherwise, their government wouldn't have taken such aggressive steps. We don't have good data about the death rate, their health care services are overwhelmed so some who might have survived won't.

I think this market will behave like the Pneumonic Plague on NYXPAT's chart. This appears to be much more contagious than the other epidemics on that chart and none of our vaccines can touch it.

Where will investors go? Lots of Asians save for retirement, IMHO that money is very likely to be headed to our and Canadian treasuries for safety. When this infection has run its course ... I have no idea where that money will go.

Economics aside the Chinese government will be tested. If their citizens are PO'd that country could be unstable. That would make the riots in Hong Kong look like a block party.

 

[Markola]

Next correction trigger in the works?

I’ve forgotten what the Pneumonic Plague was. Was that when millions of people started attaching words to other words so they could remember them or was that the crisis where people were suddenly transported around the city in vacuum tubes?

 

[Tiger8693]

I think this market will behave like the Pneumonic Plague on NYXPAT's chart.

So it's time to buy. Got it.

 

[bobandsherry]

So it's time to buy. Got it.

For every seller there's a buyer

 

[candrew]

I’ve forgotten what the Pneumonic Plague was. Was that when millions of people started attaching words to other words so they could remember them or was that the crisis where people were suddenly transported around the city in vacuum tubes?

You must be recalling the pneumatic plague in the late 80's - triggered by the savings and loan scandal. The virus was spread by drive-thru tellers.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Some of the scare is already reflected in prices. For example, Marriott was at 150+ a week ago, $141 as of end of trading Friday. This makes sense as the first hit would be travel stocks. The real question is whether the contagion spreads to the rest of the market (pun intended).

It would not surprise me in the least to see further near term downside, with the contravirus at least providing a good excuse to sell. Regardless, we had run up a LOT with a lot of catch up buying in the forth quarter in even into January. So a bit of a downturn here might even be healthy.

The real question is whether the bull is done. If this event gets a lot worse than anticipated, it would potentially hurt economic activity. But it is hard for us humans to see past the quickly escalating infection count, now at 2,116 confirmed cases worldwide (as of a few minutes ago, 3 in United States, 1 in Canada, 2062 in mainland China): https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Yesterday at Noon the count was 1,438 w/ 42 deaths, 11AM today 2116 w/56 deaths. Data can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/169AP3oaJZSMTquxtrkgFYMSp4gTApLTTWqo25qCpjL0/edit#gid=2116154334

 

[ncbill]

I'll hold out for bird flu, that ought to kill half the population of the world.

I'm hoping for the "hey, it really does turn you into a zombie" virus.

That should solve all the retirement worries we post about on this forum....

 

[MuirWannabe]

I'm hoping for the "hey, it really does turn you into a zombie" virus.



That should solve all the retirement worries we post about on this forum....

Would you still be able to collect SS as a walking member of the undead? If so, I’m holding out till 70.

 

[LRDave]

Were this to explode like the Spanish flu, would the coronavirus be a bonafide black swan?

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Were this to explode like the Spanish flu, would the coronavirus be a bonafide black swan?

Possibly. In 1918 the Spanish Flu resulted in 500,000 deaths in the United States. The estimates world wide are as high as 20-40% of the worlds population came down with illness and perhaps as high as 20 million deaths world wide.

In 1918 the SP 500 was down 24.7%, and up 8.9% in 1919.

Some differences between then and now. Our inter-connected world suggests higher R0 values (subsequent infections given one person infected) and higher economic impact. However scientific advances would suggest considerably lower R0 values. So who knows.

 

[Gumby]

Interesting 2018 New Yorker article on some of the non-medical aspects of the US response to a simulated pandemic flu.

https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/the-terrifying-lessons-of-a-pandemic-simulation

ETA: Another report about a John Hopkins simulation in summer of 2019 involving a coronavirus.
https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

 

[Running_Man]

 

[GravitySucks]

Flying day today.
Lots of people wearing surgical masks. Guess the fear of corona virus is pumped up.

 

[skipro33]

I've noticed a pattern where fear is spread to manage the populace. Every other medical emergency is measles BTW. Usually triggered when there's a wane in their particular nitch of what ever pot of money they want their mitts on. In the scope of things, all these medical scares add up to ziltch. Like the old Berma Shave signs;
When in worry
When in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and shout
Berma Shave

 

[candrew]

Flying day today.
Lots of people wearing surgical masks. Guess the fear of corona virus is pumped up.

I'd be more concerned about contracting norovirus from a dirty tray table or unclean bathroom surfaces on the aircraft.