Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[daylatedollarshort]

Mass hysteria is not so helpful but neither is sticking your head in the sand thinking there is just nothing you can do.

It does make a difference if the mortality rate is 3.4% instead of 0.5%. I might risk some things at 0.5% that I would not at 3.4%...a 7x more likely chance of dying is pretty big.

+1. It is not just about travel any more. The WHO heads brought up 60+ seniors not even going to the supermarket if they can avoid it. Information and statistics can help us decide if we really need to bunker down that much.

 

[Gumby]

Mass hysteria is not so helpful but neither is sticking your head in the sand thinking there is just nothing you can do.

It does make a difference if the mortality rate is 3.4% instead of 0.5%. I might risk some things at 0.5% that I would not at 3.4%...a 7x more likely chance of dying is pretty big.

Do you think we're stupid? Or that we don't read widely? Or maybe you believe that only you can save us all from our pollyannish folly? What is the point?

If you like, assume it's 20% mortality rate and act accordingly. Why is it so necessary that you convince the rest of us that your more grim scenario is the correct one?

 

[DeborahB]

I live in RI and we already have 4 confirmed cases because of a school trip to Italy. This is near where I live (it’s a small state...) I’m taking it all seriously without panicking. I’m 71 and retired, prime candidate for respiratory issues.

Anyhow, I’ve already topped off OTC meds and prescriptions as best I can, and doubled up on my usual amount of food on hand. I buy almost everything online or delivered, all the time. Amazon has shelf stable milk and even lactose-free so I picked up some. I gave up on masks. I can cover my face with a scarf if it comes to that, leave the masks for hospital personnel.

I’m winging it. Keeping more cash at home than usual but not panicking.

Good luck to all of us.

 

[GenXguy]

I believe this thread may have run it's course. Supposition about world wide decimation just isn't in my thought process. On the bright side, until I came here, I never knew I was such an optimist!

As long as people have an interest in posting to this thread, I don't think it's run its course. I find the discussion interesting and don't mind hearing the scary stuff, either.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Better information

Of all the countries, the one I am most closely watching is South Korea.

Why? Because they are doing tons of testing and thus there we are getting the best picture of the eventual death rate, hospitalization rate, etc.

As of March 3, they have tested 125,851 with 4,812 confirmed cases. Of the 4,812 confirmed, 34 discharged, 4750 isolated and 28 deceased.

28 deceased/ 4812 confirmed = 0.58% death rate (so far). YES, I know that rate can rise, simply because some of the 4750 known confirmed and not discharged are likely to die. What would be nice to know is the lifecycle of say the first 5000 confirmed cases, i.e. a tracking of them from test to recovery or death. If we narrowed down on those 5k cases, we would have a good idea (after a few weeks) as to the expected fatality rate.

Source: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030

In terms of testing (as expressed in tests per million population), South Korea is way ahead of other countries. As of March 2:
South Korea 2,138 tests per million population
Italy 386
Austria 235
...
USA 1

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Note: South Korea also has a higher positivity rate. As of March 2, 4.3%. This means that 4.3% of the tests they have done indicate the patient has the virus. In a weird sense this is 'good' in combination with the testing per million - it gives a better indication of a population were the virus has a bigger spread in the population (and therefore perhaps a better understanding of the end results at an earlier date than other countries).

Hope this helps

 

[jayanu]

Preparedness

>>we are already good on toilet paper

Ah, we use Bidet from Amazon for $35-$50 for a lifetime of sanitation and cost savings on the toilet paper - no cutting trees!

 

[GenXguy]

As of March 3, they have tested 125,851 with 4,812 confirmed cases. Of the 4,812 confirmed, 34 discharged, 4750 isolated and 28 deceased.

So, of the 62 closed cases, 28 have deceased. I'm not liking that ratio!

 

[tulak]

>>we are already good on toilet paper



Ah, we use Bidet from Amazon for $35-$50 for a lifetime of sanitation and cost savings on the toilet paper - no cutting trees!

Uh oh. Now there’s going to be a run on bidets.

 

[Gumby]

Of all the countries, the one I am most closely watching is South Korea.

Why? Because they are doing tons of testing and thus there we are getting the best picture of the eventual death rate, hospitalization rate, etc.

As of March 3, they have tested 125,851 with 4,812 confirmed cases. Of the 4,812 confirmed, 34 discharged, 4750 isolated and 28 deceased.

28 deceased/ 4812 confirmed = 0.58% death rate (so far). YES, I know that rate can rise, simply because some of the 4750 known confirmed and not discharged are likely to die. What would be nice to know is the lifecycle of say the first 5000 confirmed cases, i.e. a tracking of them from test to recovery or death. If we narrowed down on those 5k cases, we would have a good idea (after a few weeks) as to the expected fatality rate.

Source: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030

In terms of testing (as expressed in tests per million population), South Korea is way ahead of other countries. As of March 2:
South Korea 2,138 tests per million population
Italy 386
Austria 235
...
USA 1

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Note: South Korea also has a higher positivity rate. As of March 2, 4.3%. This means that 4.3% of the tests they have done indicate the patient has the virus. In a weird sense this is 'good' in combination with the testing per million - it gives a better indication of a population were the virus has a bigger spread in the population (and therefore perhaps a better understanding of the end results at an earlier date than other countries).

Hope this helps

In case anyone is wondering, this ^^ is what I consider to be a good post regarding death rate calculation. Thank you.

 

[powerplay]

Today in Oregon we learned that hospital workers are quarantined because they may have been exposed to COVID-19 virus.


https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavi...d-hillsboro-hospital-workers-quarantined.html



HOSPITAL WORKERS IN QUARANTINE: Dozens of employees at Kaiser Permanente Westside Medical Center in Hillsboro, where the first Oregonian to come down with the virus sought treatment, have been quarantined after it was determined they may have had contact with the COVID-19 virus. Sources within local healthcare unions said as many as 70 Kaiser Westside workers were placed in quarantine at home.





A friends husband had surgery there a week ago so I'm hoping there was no exposure for him or my friend. Another friend had a hip replacement several weeks ago there and has been a couple times since for followups. This makes me think how vulnerable we may be and not know it until later.

 

[NW-Bound]

The various death rates reported for this virus are lower than the death rate I faced with a serious illness 7 years ago. Don't know about y'all, but I am not scared.

And I plan on not catching this virus. For people not getting infected, the death rate is 0. And there are many more people who are not infected than people who are. Even in Wuhan, obviously.

You can stock up on alcohol, on TP, if it makes you feel better. Just don't do as this woman whom I spotted in the following video at 1:23.

I posted this video early, which shows panic buying in Honolulu.

 

[Nemo2]

The various death rates reported for this virus are lower than the death rate I faced with a serious illness 7 years ago. Don't know about y'all, but I am not scared.

Amen. DW just said "Compared to sepsis it'd be a piece of cake"......for 11 months now I've felt like I'm on 'extra time'.

 

[Bongleur]

Right. We're nowhere near the limit of the population (7.5 billion). So maybe we're still in the exponential growth phase of the S curve.

Except that an individual is only concerned with his locality. What should that be? I might guess the regional catchment area for hospitals. The group that shares surge load. How many people in that region? How many ICU beds are there? Normally they are mostly filled with the usual sort of thing. How many can be made available by not filling them "as usual?"

Population x 40% attack rate x 15% hospitalized x 15% of those ICU = number of ICU beds needed.

If they are evenly spread over a year, you can figure number of people per bed, and how many days each can occupy it.

You can reduce the input numbers until your answer does not exceed the number of ICU "not otherwise occupied" ICU beds.

 

[Fermion]

i just think it is a tad hypocritical that we can have 1700 threads over people handwringing that their $3,000,000 portfolio might not last them until they are 102 years old if they use a 3.8% SWR instead of a 3.77% SWR but when a few of us get concerned that the World Health Organization is throwing out figures like 3 out of every 100 people you know will die, it is blasphemy.

I don't mind taking risk (heck, I invest in biotech!) but I like to know the odds.

Doesn't mean I am panicking or want others to panic.

 

[W2R]

The various death rates reported for this virus are lower than the death rate I faced with a serious illness 7 years ago. Don't know about y'all, but I am not scared.

And I plan on not catching this virus. For people not getting infected, the death rate is 0. And there are many more people who are not infected than people who are. Even in Wuhan, obviously.

You can stock up on alcohol, on TP, if it makes you feel better. Just don't do as this woman whom I spotted in the following video at 1:23.

I posted this video early, which shows panic buying in Honolulu.

Wow!!! What a nightmare!

My experience here in New Orleans was like day and night in comparison with your video. When I went to the grocery store today, there were the usual number of lines open - - maybe 6? 8? I don't know. Half of them had one person already lined up ahead of me, and half had two. I chose a line with one person ahead of me, that was only buying two items.

I lived in Honolulu for years, went to high school there, and, well, Hawaii is dear to my heart. I feel such sympathy and concern. I hope things get better over there soon.

I plan to not get the virus either.

 

[Gumby]

I don't mind taking risk (heck, I invest in biotech!) but I like to know the odds.

I think you are looking for a precision that does not and probably will never exist. For reasons that I'm sure we've all read about, calculating an actual case fatality rate is a difficult thing to do and we may never know the true answer. You say you have 7 times the risk of dying if the rate is 3.4% than if it is 0.5% and you would make different choices, so you want to know. But the same ratio holds true if the risk bounds are 10% at the lower end and 70% at the upper end, or 0.01% and 0.07%. And in each of those alternative scenarios, I'm sure you would decide differently, notwithstanding the ratio.

Based on the numbers currently being talked about, you have a very small probability of dying and a very large large (97% +) probability of living. I am sure you have done things in your life with greater risks of dying than this. I sure have.

 

[Bongleur]

What about a separate "COVID-19 projections & statistical analysis" thread?

 

[Fermion]

You say you have 7 times the risk of dying if the rate is 3.4% than if it is 0.5% and you would make different choices, so you want to know. But the same ratio holds true if the risk bounds are 10% at the lower end and 70% at the upper end, or 0.01% and 0.07%. And in each of those alternative scenarios, I'm sure you would decide differently, notwithstanding the ratio.

Based on the numbers currently being talked about, you have a very small probability of dying and a very large large (97% +) probability of living. I am sure you have done things in your life with greater risks of dying than this. I sure have.

Fair point. I think it is the media that has ingrained in us a fear of things that are more likely to happen if so and so, even though the odds of the event are pretty low.

Take smoking for example (I have never smoked in my life). The odds of a non smoker getting lung cancer at any point in their life is about 1% to 2% from what I have read. The odds of a smoker getting lung cancer is FIVE to TEN times higher! OMG smoking is so bad, we must spend billions educating people on how bad it is, FIVE TO TEN TIMES more likely to get lung cancer.

90% of people who smoke will never even get lung cancer.

 

[Bongleur]

Today in Oregon we learned that hospital workers are quarantined because they may have been exposed to COVID-19 virus.

And 5 police in Dallas, based on the word of a guy who was able to stay out of jail by going to the hospital instead... This is a really high attrition for public services. Procedures need to be created... Seems like testing priority might need to be given to criminals, just to get the cops back on the street.

Five Dallas police officers were told to stay home temporarily after arresting a man whom jail officers later reported had a “possible case of COVID-19” on Sunday.
David Tarrant
The Dallas Morning News
Mar 3rd, 2020

DALLAS -- Five Dallas police officers were told to stay home temporarily after arresting a man whom jail officers later reported had a “possible case of COVID-19” on Sunday.

Parkland Hospital officials also confirmed on Monday they were monitoring the 24-year-old “out of an abundance of caution.”

All five officers who came in contact with the person they arrested “were notified of the potential exposure and given a day off for precautionary reasons,” according to a Dallas police statement. The officers are expected to return to work at their next tour of duty, police said.

“Per our contagious disease policy, all five officers that came in contact with the arrested person were notified of the potential exposure and advised not to return to work until further notice,” the police statement said.

At about 9 a.m. Sunday, Dallas officers responded to a disturbance call at an East Dallas apartment. When officers arrived, Dallas Fire and Rescue had taken the 24-year-old man to a local hospital for injuries he sustained from an assault, according to a Dallas police statement.

Medical staff treated the man and released him back to Dallas officers, who drove him to jail and charged him with assault of a family member, police said.

At around 10:30 p.m., jail officers notified Dallas police of a possible case of COVID-19 involving the man, who was taken by private ambulance to Parkland Hospital.

A Parkland spokesperson confirmed that the 24-year-old suspect was taken to the hospital. “We are monitoring the person for symptoms out of an abundance of caution,” April Foran said. “We cannot offer comment beyond those facts.”

The Dallas County Sheriff’s Department, which oversees the jail, said in a statement that it has “an extensive intake screening process,” which was recently updated over concerns related to the virus outbreak.

“There has not been and are not currently any cases of the Coronavirus in the Dallas County Jail,” the sheriff’s department said.

Mike Mata, president of the Dallas Police Association, said Monday evening that the suspect knew he could stay out of jail by claiming to be sick.

When doctors examined him, Mata said, “the suspect had no indication of being ill. His claim had no merit.”

The squad cars involved in the man’s arrest were immediately removed from service for cleaning, police said.

Members of the department are currently working with medical professionals to draft a protocol to ensure officer safety.

 

[Ronstar]

I understand one’s need to know “what are my chances?”. It is a piece of the preparedness puzzle. But using such a small and early dataset to compute future survival chances is futile.

The data to date is subjective, not even knowing actual numbers of those infected by the virus, or the preexisting medical conditions of those who died.

And using current data to speculate future results doesn’t take into consideration forthcoming medical practices and preparedness measures that will certainly mitigate the deadliness of the virus.

So just like all other speculation that we see online, we must analyze all of the information in order to best come up with a prediction that makes sense. So while we see the percentages of various age brackets affected by the virus, I take these numbers with a grain of salt.

 

[Just_Steve]

IF the 14% mortality rate for 80 year olds holds true here, plus the 8% rate for 70's and IF 60% of that population gets the virus, 2 million will die. And that's just 70+people. There will be some younger than that, also.

And?

And Social Security will be saved.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Instead of buying bottled water we just filled up plastic jugs with water.

 

[NW-Bound]

Instead of buying bottled water we just filled up plastic jugs with water.

I suspect that many people don't realize it, and have to be told that.

 

[GenXguy]

And Social Security will be saved.

You're dancing about SS being saved on the premature deaths of millions of Americans?

 

[Just_Steve]

You're dancing about SS being saved on the premature deaths of millions of Americans?

Gallows humor. I'm sure you are familiar with the concept. But if not here is a little help.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gallows humor

Definition of gallows humor
: humor that makes fun of a life-threatening, disastrous, or terrifying situation