Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[sengsational]

I just think that’s a much less likely way to get infected from contaminated surfaces compared to person to person contact as several medical/health folks have indicated. That doesn’t mean I’m going to ignore surface contamination. I’m just not going to freak out about every possible thing I could touch, and wash my hands often when I am in public areas or have just departed public areas. I’m going to focus more on staying away from other people.

I'm going to focus more on the surface contamination, because I think that's where a lot of the contamination happens. My reasoning includes two natural experiments: Diamond Princess and airline flight attendants.


The fact that people were stuck in their cabins on the DP, but the virus swept through quite completely suggests that surfaces (food plates, trays, and possibly the food itself) was the vector. True, the delivery person might have coughed inside peoples' cabins, but probably not enough to allow the kind of spread we saw.


The virus is transmitted long distances on aircraft, staffed by flight attendants that don't wear masks and are listening to people talking at higher than average volume (talking above the ambient noise). All of those interactions with infected people have resulted in very few (that I have heard of) flight attendant cases.

 

[Fermion]

But then why do 19 crew members of the cruise ship posted off the coast of California have the virus?

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Two things. First, the more important point is that while we're a pretty smart crowd here, even epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists are making educated guesses until they can study the real-world transmission of this particular virus.

But, since we're theorizing...

The fact that people were stuck in their cabins on the DP, but the virus swept through quite completely suggests that surfaces (food plates, trays, and possibly the food itself) was the vector. True, the delivery person might have coughed inside peoples' cabins, but probably not enough to allow the kind of spread we saw.

Note that the objects that the crew touched were objects that were very soon after put in the passengers' mouths: food & utensils. So this vector isn't that comparable to most other situations, with the exception of restaurants or other kinds of food prep and delivery. We also don't know about the volume of air circulation or recirculation, though, so it's hard to compare the two.

 

[Sunset]

But then why do 19 crew members of the cruise ship posted off the coast of California have the virus?

Crew get very small cabins that have to be shared by others. A crew member once told me his cabin had a total of 6 people inside.
This is perfect for infectious diseases to spread

 

[Sunset]

I'm going to focus more on the surface contamination, because I think that's where a lot of the contamination happens. My reasoning includes two natural experiments: Diamond Princess and airline flight attendants.


The fact that people were stuck in their cabins on the DP, but the virus swept through quite completely suggests that surfaces (food plates, trays, and possibly the food itself) was the vector. True, the delivery person might have coughed inside peoples' cabins, but probably not enough to allow the kind of spread we saw.


The virus is transmitted long distances on aircraft, staffed by flight attendants that don't wear masks and are listening to people talking at higher than average volume (talking above the ambient noise). All of those interactions with infected people have resulted in very few (that I have heard of) flight attendant cases.

One other significant difference is airplane air is recirculated through HEPA filters, which can filter out 99% of viruses.
Ship air is recirculated via ordinary filters and don't stop viruses.

So perhaps it's a little more airborne than proclaimed.

It would be interesting to know which cabins the infected people are from, as you would expect balcony cabins to have less infection rate than interior cabins if it was somewhat airborne (after accounting for the smaller number of interior cabins, and the less time an interior cabin is occupied)

 

[sengsational]

TCA, true, I've been discounting the air recirculation aspect aboard the DP. My cruising experience put that aspect lower on the list of transmission vectors, but without proof. I'm a super smeller (if you believe DW...also super smelly on occasion, bit that's not relevant here). Anyway, I'll smell something off in the kitchen trash can from the living room and DW has to open the lid and take a whiff to sense it. All that background to say that on my many cruise voyages (modern, large ships), I never picked up foreign scents from the air handling system. The cruise ships seem to do a great job removing bathroom smells and moisture. But the idea that viral droplets don't recirculate is just my gut feel.

 

[TromboneAl]

But then why do 19 crew members of the cruise ship posted off the coast of California have the virus?

Canoodling.

 

[Chuckanut]

I'll file this under "Quote without Comment"

An Australian newspaper has printed an extra eight pages to be used as toilet paper after coronavirus fears prompted customers to bulk buy supplies, leaving some supermarket shelves bare.

In a bid to tackle the shortage, The NT News provided a practical -- if unconventional -- solution.


Australians living in the Northern Territories would have noticed on Thursday that eight pages in the paper had been left bare, except for watermarks and a cut-out guide edition.
"Run out of loo paper? The NT News cares," the newspaper read.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

We are stocked up on cat litter and cat food. Definitely don’t want to run out of cat litter !

My son's cat uses wood pellets (sold in pet stores). Being the cheap person I am, I researched regular wood pellets for a pellet stove (as I have almost a ton of them). It turns out they are pretty much the same: https://www.energypelletsamerica.com/can-you-use-wood-pellets-for-cat-litter/

So I intend to start using these (about $5/40# = .1245/# when the $9/bag 20# = .45/# "cat litter" runs low.

 

[Fermion]

My son's cat uses wood pellets (sold in pet stores). Being the cheap person I am, I researched regular wood pellets for a pellet stove (as I have almost a ton of them). It turns out they are pretty much the same: https://www.energypelletsamerica.com/can-you-use-wood-pellets-for-cat-litter/

So I intend to start using these (about $5/40# = .1245/# when the $9/bag 20# = .45/# "cat litter" runs low.

Could you still burn them in the stove after they are used by the cat?

 

[GenXguy]

I'll file this under "Quote without Comment"

Yeah, read this upthread a well.

https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...redness-aspects-ii-102346-34.html#post2381566

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Could you still burn them in the stove after they are used by the cat?

I don't intend to find out.

In all seriousness, the pellets are broken down (by the cat Urine) into sawdust. While that would likely eventually burn (given a hot enough stove), it would at best be inefficient as energy is expended burning off the liquid.

Yuck.

 

[Elbata]

I'm not getting ahold of what's happening with the Corona virus. Why such panic when so few cases and thousands die of the flu?

Here's a distressing look at what could be only the beginning:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/al...rus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysis

 

[audreyh1]

Two things. First, the more important point is that while we're a pretty smart crowd here, even epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists are making educated guesses until they can study the real-world transmission of this particular virus.

But, since we're theorizing...


Note that the objects that the crew touched were objects that were very soon after put in the passengers' mouths: food & utensils. So this vector isn't that comparable to most other situations, with the exception of restaurants or other kinds of food prep and delivery. We also don't know about the volume of air circulation or recirculation, though, so it's hard to compare the two.

Exactly!

Infected crew, IMO, all bets are off.

 

[audreyh1]

I'm not getting ahold of what's happening with the Corona virus. Why such panic when so few cases and thousands die of the flu?

Because it’s more infectious, more lethal, and the number of cases could exceed the flu cases.

The number of cases is exploding. The very link you posted answers your why such panic question, doesn’t it?

 

[Fermion]

Right. If they don't over-react now, then when/if we do get in a full outbreak where 20% (say 60 million) americans get infected and 5% of those require hospitalization (3 million).

There are currently maybe a million hospital beds in the USA, but a lot of those are occupied by (insert various non corona disease here). What do you do with the 3 million people who need emergency medical care?

Starting to see the reason for a little pre panic?

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I'm not getting ahold of what's happening with the Corona virus. Why such panic when so few cases and thousands die of the flu?

Here's a distressing look at what could be only the beginning:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/al...rus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysis

A University of Australia study that examined seven scenarios found the best case is 15 million dead worldwide, worst case 68 million - https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...s-australian-national-university-study-2020-3.

 

[stepford]

A University of Australia study that examined seven scenarios found the best case is 15 million dead worldwide, worst case 68 million - https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...s-australian-national-university-study-2020-3.

i.e. 0.2-0.9% of world population, but presumably unevenly distributed. In comparison overall global death rate from all causes in a typical year is 0.8% and Spanish Flu killed 1-5% of the global population, depending on which figures you believe.

 

[ivinsfan]

A University of Australia study that examined seven scenarios found the best case is 15 million dead worldwide, worst case 68 million - https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...s-australian-national-university-study-2020-3.

Just because it's a university study doesn't mean it cant still be speculation. They are "speculating" on the death. rate when they model the entire study.

Can anyone, anywhere actually give the correct number of people who have had the virus? Don't forget to add in the people who had nothing more then a mild cold or perhaps an itchy throat for one day.

I guess these "experts" have to churn out some kind of data to get their governments grants or 15 minutes of fame on TV.

 

[GenXguy]

Don't forget to add in the people who had nothing more then a mild cold or perhaps an itchy throat for one day.

Most of those people just had a regular cold or seasonal flu, not COVID-19.

 

[Tailgate]

Lighten up..

I'm trying!

 

[ivinsfan]

Most of those people just had a regular cold or seasonal flu, not COVID-19.

That's the 64 dollar question isn't it and no one knows the answer some people have tested positive with no symptoms at all. If you live in China and had a mild illness and weren't tested, was it a cold or Covid…

 

[zinger1457]

Can anyone, anywhere actually give the correct number of people who have had the virus? Don't forget to add in the people who had nothing more then a mild cold or perhaps an itchy throat for one day.

There is no accurate number, up until a few days ago anyone in the USA with mild symptoms (no fever) weren't even allowed to get tested for the coronavirus.

 

[Rianne]

And Don't Pet My Dog

Anyone with pets are surely snuggling and playing with them. It occurred to me today on our hour long walk (which is an amazing prairie/wooded park with many trails) right next to a high end nursing home. The residents there are always on the trails enjoying wildlife and in the past, stopped to pet my Labrador, who's cute and cuddly.

I am now, not rudely, keeping him away from anyone to pet him. Sorry, Champaign-Urbana is not testing like they should with shortage of testing kits. I'm not taking any chances. I will say getting out in nature is a good way to get outside and stay away from crowds. But don't pet my dog

 

[GenXguy]

I'm trying!

Among various others that suddenly made headlines:

Monkeypox
MERS
Lyme Disease
Kissing Bug