Does Anyone Else Wish We Would Enter a Bear Market?

[GoBugGo]

Typically it's when the average closes below the 20% mark.

For the Dow, a close below 23,640 would do it. We're several hundred points below this mark in the final hour of trading.

On the S&P, the close would need to be below 2,708... we're trading right on this level now.

 

[COcheesehead]

Make all your wishes come true!

But now watch what you wish for.

Things can get really ugly from here.

 

[GoBugGo]

Dow closed at 23,553. We are now down 20% and technically in a bear market.

FYI... bear markets historically see a 30% market delcine.

 

[audreyh1]

I found a definition last month that said the market had to stay down for 2 months for a bear market, so we’ll see if this persists.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I'm always quietly cheering for a big drop. I buy stocks every month and don't intend to draw on it for many years. I would much rather be buying the same shares for 30% or 40% less than I am right now.

 

[aja8888]

I found a definition last month that said the market had to stay down for 2 months For a bear market, so we’ll see if this persists.

Agreed, but the "news" has all been negative, except for the "plan" laid out by the Pres, which will be slow to implement (and maybe not that effective?)....meanwhile, the bad news worsens. I'm planning for a long Spring and Summer of poor earnings by companies and periodic bad news here and there.

With all the cancellations of big events, empty airplanes and ships, people hunkering down and not spending, and general fear of getting CV19, the landscape doesn't look "Rosy".

And the Astros, caught cheating last year, will have a bad year too.

 

[audreyh1]

Agreed, but the "news" has all been negative, except for the "plan" laid out by the Pres, which will be slow to implement (and maybe not that effective?)....meanwhile, the bad news worsens. I'm planning for a long Spring and Summer of poor earnings by companies and periodic bad news here and there.

With all the cancellations of big events, empty airplanes and ships, people hunkering down and not spending, and general fear of getting CV19, the landscape doesn't look "Rosy".

And the Astros, caught cheating last year, will have a bad year too.

I agree that it’s likely to persist and will probably drop further. There is an awful lot of unwinding to do. And we’ve got several years of animal spirits to overcome. Lots of folks are going to keep hoping this is quick and that the bull resumes.

 

[easysurfer]

My gut feeling says market has plenty of room to drop more before going back up.

With the downs and ups lately, I still don't have the feeling there was much panic selling yet. Could be wrong, but perhaps that is yet to come.

 

[COcheesehead]

If this is like 2008, we are only half way there.

 

[travelover]

What I wish doesn't change anything, but I've been waiting for a recession to get some remodeling done. Recently contractors often don't even return calls and if they do quote, the prices are ridiculous.

 

[razztazz]

If this is like 2008, we are only half way there.

If it's like 2008 we're more like 1/3 of the way there

 

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

The market is signalling much more than a recession.

A whole lot more chickens coming home to roost, including the virus, climate change, trillion-dollar deficits, etc. ... it is different this time.

Hope I'm wrong!

 

[steelyman]

Pretty naive, I know, but I’d really prefer it if the stock market could manage a slow descent into a bear market. This is like being a passenger on Air Kamikaze.

 

[Fermion]

The market is signalling much more than a recession.

A whole lot more chickens coming home to roost, including the virus, climate change, trillion-dollar deficits, etc. ... it is different this time.

Hope I'm wrong!

It is the end times huh?

Well, lets just say I am not worrying about the impact of straws in my soda right now.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Am I missing something? The S&P in August 2009 was ~1000 or so. Today after the carnage so far is ONLY 2,480! That is still up some ~150%. Why are folks who are in for the long haul so agitated?

Isn't it like home prices? So your home goes up 50% then drops 40% you are still up 10%.

 

[NW-Bound]

The drop of the market is disturbing if people have been counting on it to finance their retirement.

When your 4% WR becomes 8% WR, of course you worry, no matter what FIRECalc says.

I still will not like it, if my 1.25% WR becomes 2.5%.

 

[Fermion]

Am I missing something? The S&P in August 2009 was ~1000 or so. Today after the carnage so far is ONLY 2,480! That is still up some ~150%. Why are folks who are in for the long haul so agitated?

Isn't it like home prices? So your home goes up 50% then drops 40% you are still up 10%.

If your home goes up 50% and drops 40%, you are down 10%

 

[Fermion]

A lot of us slightly younger generation don't have pensions either and SS has been labeled as sketchy for us, so we depend on our 401Ks and can't afford to keep them in 1% bonds for 30 years.

If I had a pension and could rely on SS, heck yeah I would be at something like 10% stocks in our 401K

 

[NW-Bound]

What I wish doesn't change anything, but I've been waiting for a recession to get some remodeling done. Recently contractors often don't even return calls and if they do quote, the prices are ridiculous.

Now, if the contractors show up coughing, you won't like it either.

 

[NW-Bound]

If your home goes up 50% and drops 40%, you are down 10%

Good catch.

1.5 x 0.6 = 0.9

 

[Dogpeace]

A lot of us slightly younger generation don't have pensions either and SS has been labeled as sketchy for us, so we depend on our 401Ks and can't afford to keep them in 1% bonds for 30 years.

If I had a pension and could rely on SS, heck yeah I would be at something like 10% stocks in our 401K

You can rely on SS. You have been paying in and paying for others to retire. I don't think any future Congress is going to pass a law that says, in effect, sorry but you are getting nothing for what you contributed. The streets would be full of pitchforks. SS is here to stay. What WILL happen is they will raise the retirement age.

 

[Spock]

You can rely on SS. You have been paying in and paying for others to retire. I don't think any future Congress is going to pass a law that says, in effect, sorry but you are getting nothing for what you contributed. The streets would be full of pitchforks. SS is here to stay. What WILL happen is they will raise the retirement age.

And add "means testing" for benefits... "If you saved you don't need it".

 

[Fermion]

And add "means testing" for benefits... "If you saved you don't need it".

Yes, and it is another reason we decided to build a house. Means testing usually either is based on income or exempts certain things like house, 1 car, etc. Either way, owning rather than renting seems smart if means testing will be used.

 

[unclemick]

Mixed feelings here. Investing since 1966 thru a few Bulls and Bears and ER since 1993. I should be past all that.

However a few residual male hormones extent and 'The Chiefs won the Superbowl'.

heh heh heh - minor lust to buy low sell high, make a killing in the market, etc. I know better as a born again Boglehead. I can resist. Right? Plus there might be medication/therapy for this condition.

 

[Dogpeace]

And add "means testing" for benefits... "If you saved you don't need it".

No, means testing has been proposed by conservatives as a way to cut taxes but it hardly is a popular idea. It is not going to happen, much more likely to see benefit cuts ( the default option if nothing is done) and/or tax increases. Means testing would transform SS from an earned benefit into welfare.