Coronavirus - Financial, Health and Other impacts II

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Please tell me I am wrong

I have not tried to read all 1000+ posts here yet. Wow!

My thoughts here are based on my observations and opinions, not data.

In my part of the country (north Washington State), we have a pretty thorough lockdown.

In our county, most jobs are in small business in spite of the size of city and county governments, a university and several colleges. Many businesses are on reduced hours or simply closed. Part-time, self-employed and contractors are not covered by unemployment insurance. (The bureaucrats have been interviewed on local TV, smiling, giving double-talk, dodging answering this question but the answer is "T.S.") If this necessary lockdown lasts even 2 or 3 weeks, I expect that most restaurants and bars will go out of business. Bankruptcies will match 2008-2009. Foreclosures as well. Unemployment will reach 20%. The homeless population will increase substantially.

If the contagion cannot be contained in the next 3 weeks, I worry that it will be a year before it is controlled and we will have a bona-fide depression. I think the market could drop a lot further, maybe down 50%. A paper from the UK in a link in a previous post even said that it might be 18 months, when an effective vaccine might be available, before it can be controlled.

I have a pretty solid record of making wrong projections. Let's hope I am wrong as usual. Now I will go back and try to read all those posts. I have time, for sure.

 

[audreyh1]

We were told by a friend of who is a part-timer working at our nearby Trader Joe's that there were 80 people waiting for the store to open yesterday morning. In less than an hour after the doors opened the store racked up $14K in sales and mostly empty shelves were left for those, like DW & I, who arrived later. She was appalled at the hoarding that was taking place.

This can only be counteracted by placing purchasing limits on most coveted items. Many stores are doing this already.

 

[audreyh1]

I do need a hair cut that I will postpone. US barber shops are fairly clean compared to Europe, but still don't like someone breathing down my neck during the procedure.

So glad we got haircuts last week!

 

[REWahoo]

So glad we got haircuts last week!

You referring to the barber or Wall St?

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

So glad we got haircuts last week!

Thanks for reminding me....time for my regular DIY haircut!

 

[razztazz]

Let the virus run its course? Did he mean that when our hospitals are overrun like in Italy, just tell patients to go home to die, instead of trying to limit the infection so we do not get there?

And seeing that the man had a quadruple bypass, I have to ask why did he not let his coronary problem run its course.

He sounds like a man psyching himself up to die. "I am so brave. You all should be brave like me." I've seen it many many times with people who had a close call in some way.

 

[audreyh1]

You referring to the barber or Wall St?

Well, that other haircut is still ongoing, isn’t it!

 

[Corporateburnout]

So glad we got haircuts last week!

We had to cancel ours this week.....I'm going look scary in a few weeks

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

To be fair, I think these events make you realize how comfortable you are with risk.

It’s easy to take a quiz and select moderate or aggressive but when you really lose 30% in a few weeks, you really know if you can take emotionally take those drops, especially once retired.

I just FIREd less than a year ago at over 70% equities... this month has really tested me and I will adjust the AA after the recovery.

Although I may shift bond allocations to specific stocks for some rebound value.

My sister sold all several days ago. I did nothing. She was only set back 6 months. I am down 20%. So far. No change in AA (60/40). Both my equities and bond components seem to have been hit about equally. We shall see how this plays out.

 

[Dtail]

My sister sold all several days ago. I did nothing. She was only set back 6 months. I am down 20%. So far. No change in AA (60/40). Both my equities and bond components seem to have been hit about equally. We shall see how this plays out.

If your bond funds are heavily weighted in Corporates, perhaps consider treasury funds. Many BBB rated bonds could eventually be down graded to junk status.
You still can keep the same AA.

 

[Ready]

The entire state of California goes on a “Stay At Home” order effective midnight. And now they expect to enforce the order. This is going to get tough.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Anyone else starting to get a little worried about running out of TP in the next few weeks, while panic buying/hoarding is still in full swing? I could probably muddle through for a while (since I have a bidet and can improvise), so it's not a major concern. But what other (more critical) things will start vanishing from store shelves over the coming days/weeks? So far, all I've not been able to buy is TP and hand sanitizer. Plenty of milk, bread, rice, beans, and every other basic food I might want or need. Very puzzling.

If you try IF (intermittent fasting), you will use much less TP. Try 4 days. No kidding!

 

[Freedom56]

The entire state of California goes on a “Stay At Home” order effective midnight. And now they expect to enforce the order. This is going to get tough.

But is it really?

The governor of California on Thursday evening issued a statewide stay at home order to help combat the spread of the novel coronavirus.

The order is effective Thursday night and asks residents to leave their homes only when necessary.

Gov. Gavin Newsom's announcement came less than an hour after officials in Los Angeles County ordered people to stay home except for essential needs or jobs for indoor shopping malls and non-essential retail to close.

San Francisco and surrounding counties had previously issued orders to stay at home as a way to stop the spread of the coronavirus and the illness it causes, COVID-19.

Newsom said the statewide order is consistent with the local orders. Places like grocery and convenience stores, delivery restaurants, gas stations, pharmacies, banks and laundromats will remain open.

The goal is to encourage "social distancing," which is something health experts have stressed can slow the spread of the disease and keep health systems from being overwhelmed.

The governor said he hopes people will voluntarily obey the order to stay at home if possible, saying “there's a social contract here.”

We still have people here doing their water and toilet paper runs at Walmart and Costco. The younger generation appears to be ignoring everything.

 

[Ready]

We still have people here doing their water and toilet paper runs at Walmart and Costco. The younger generation appears to be ignoring everything.

What is the alternative? People need to get groceries to survive and the delivery options are so overwhelmed that virtually nothing is available here.

 

[gwraigty]

What is the alternative? People need to get groceries to survive and the delivery options are so overwhelmed that virtually nothing is available here.

There is no alternative. It's not helping that the stores aren't able to get enough stock yet. It's forcing people to have to go out more often than they normally might, which is counterproductive to trying to limit trips out. Hopefully, this will resolve itself somewhat over the next few weeks, but who knows?

 

[Ready]

Every day I check for online availability for things like paper towels, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes, flushable wipes. There is just nothing in stock. There’s a possibility of getting these items at Costco but only if you arrive hours before they open and stand in line. And no matter how frequently people are told to stay six feet apart, they stand right next to each other for hours on end waiting to get their toilet paper. It’s even worse than actually being in the store.

I have a prescription I need to fill at Costco but I’ve been reluctant to go. I’ll survive if I run out because it’s not life threatening. But I’m at the point where I have to decide whether it’s worth the risk of exposure to get my medication at this point. I never though I’d see the day where I would be faced with decisions like these. It’s getting very stressful.

 

[Kwirk]

I have a prescription I need to fill at Costco but I’ve been reluctant to go.

There's an option for Costco home delivery of prescriptions with an online accout. https://www.costco.com/pharmacy/how-to-use-costco-pharmacy.html


You can transfer warehouse prescriptions to the online pharmacy.

 

[Ready]

There's an option for Costco home delivery of prescriptions with an online accout. https://www.costco.com/pharmacy/how-to-use-costco-pharmacy.html


You can transfer warehouse prescriptions to the online pharmacy.

I did not know about that, thank you for sharing!

 

[Freedom56]

Every day I check for online availability for things like paper towels, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes, flushable wipes. There is just nothing in stock. There’s a possibility of getting these items at Costco but only if you arrive hours before they open and stand in line. And no matter how frequently people are told to stay six feet apart, they stand right next to each other for hours on end waiting to get their toilet paper. It’s even worse than actually being in the store.

I have a prescription I need to fill at Costco but I’ve been reluctant to go. I’ll survive if I run out because it’s not life threatening. But I’m at the point where I have to decide whether it’s worth the risk of exposure to get my medication at this point. I never though I’d see the day where I would be faced with decisions like these. It’s getting very stressful.

Costco has a separate line for prescriptions. You go straight to the entrance and tell them you have a prescription to pick up. Someone will escort you to the pharmacy and wait with you to pick up your prescriptions and escort you back. My wife did this the other day and said it was fast and efficient.

 

[Freedom56]

What is the alternative? People need to get groceries to survive and the delivery options are so overwhelmed that virtually nothing is available here.

You can go to regular supermarkets just before they close. There are hardly any people there and they bring out their toilet paper and other items to start re-stocking.

 

[Bigdawg]

Full disclosure: I have not read every post so if someone already mentioned this mods please delete. DW and I (seperately) have made maybe 2-3 grocery store runs in the past 10 days. Nothing big. Just knick knacks. After just reading a story about the cheap gas prices (apples and oranges) I was wondering if anyone has noticed increase pricing (price gouging) on normal everyday groceries. I have not.

 

[Freedom56]

This is encouraging. Hardly anyone is at at the Santa Monica Pier. People are finally listening. It's a little cool today so that could be it also.

https://explore.org/livecams/zen-den/santa-monica-beach-cam

 

[ivinsfan]

Every day I check for online availability for things like paper towels, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes, flushable wipes. There is just nothing in stock. There’s a possibility of getting these items at Costco but only if you arrive hours before they open and stand in line. And no matter how frequently people are told to stay six feet apart, they stand right next to each other for hours on end waiting to get their toilet paper. It’s even worse than actually being in the store.

I have a prescription I need to fill at Costco but I’ve been reluctant to go. I’ll survive if I run out because it’s not life threatening. But I’m at the point where I have to decide whether it’s worth the risk of exposure to get my medication at this point. I never though I’d see the day where I would be faced with decisions like these. It’s getting very stressful.

Keep watching costco might start mailing or delivery RX. depending on price you can also have the RX switched to another place that has either drive thru or delivery. Just contact costco and tell them you want it transfered.

 

[jollystomper]

You can go to regular supermarkets just before they close. There are hardly any people there and they bring out their toilet paper and other items to start re-stocking.

Good point. This may not happen everywhere. But stopped at nearest grocery store to us late last just before they closed to pick up some snacks and found them restocking several items that were in short supply - TP, milk, eggs, etc.

 

[Time2]

I'm in the Panhandle of Florida with lots of beach, and lot's of out of state visitors, especially the young here. It's spring break, plus no school. I'm disappointed the commissioners have not closed the beaches. We have no confirmed cases in the county and only one in our neighboring county (return from Italy). I hope they get on the ball soon. Lots of local businesses are closed.