Sweden’s “Bold Experiment?”

[donheff]

The Swedish curve looks just like other country curves. It will be interesting to see whether it continues to rise exponentially and how that plays out in deaths. If they stick to their guns we get some useful experimental data to add to the postmortems.

 

[Midpack]

The Swedish curve looks just like other country curves. It will be interesting to see whether it continues to rise exponentially and how that plays out in deaths. If they stick to their guns we get some useful experimental data to add to the postmortems.

Sure does, lower right. But then their theory is it’s all low risk Swede’s getting infected and they’ll survive, most easily, and the population will develop antibodies faster than other countries. I guess older citizens will be on lockdown until everyone else is in the clear. We’ll see how their death per cases track other countries.

 

[Ready-4-ER-at-14]

I'd be curious if test kit availability, decisions on use, and effectiveness has been skewing individual results.

I read something that said scarcity in testing kits let to use only on the seriously ill who often die.

I also read that there was a problem in the US with the WHO kits that led to confusion for a week or so. No idea if we got bad ones, if our people prepared them wrong, or what. Maybe other countries did not have that problem and could isolate earlier flattening their curves much more?

 

[Midpack]

I'd be curious if test kit availability, decisions on use, and effectiveness has been skewing individual results.

I read something that said scarcity in testing kits let to use only on the seriously ill who often die.

I also read that there was a problem in the US with the WHO kits that led to confusion for a week or so. No idea if we got bad ones, if our people prepared them wrong, or what. Maybe other countries did not have that problem and could isolate earlier flattening their curves much more?

IIRC the US did not use the WHO test kits and weren’t supposed to. There was a series of problems with the initial CDC test kits, that delayed testing/results in the US.

A problem with one (of three) ingredient in test kits that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention distributed to labs around the country had created a frustrating bottleneck in testing, requiring most testing to occur at the CDC in Atlanta.

 

[Freedom56]

Schools have been closed in the Amsterdam for at least a couple of weeks - it’s lessons at home. They are having to stay at home and only go out for groceries and pharmacy. Parks are closed - they can occasionally go out for bicycle ride or walk for exercise. Concert venues are shut down in multiple cities - no work for DB. So it seems to me Amsterdam at least is very much sheltering in place like several areas of the US, and maybe started a bit sooner. DB and family live there and we FaceTime once or twice a week.

Yes that's true but there is no requirement for real social distancing.

"Prime Minister Mark Rutte has essentially argued that social distancing will only prolong the disastrous effects of the virus. He believes — supposedly based on the knowledge of medical professionals — that the Dutch population should be somewhat exposed to the virus so that immunity can be formed and society can return to a sense of normalcy as quickly as possible.

The Dutch government did shut down schools, cafes, movie theaters, houses of worship and many offices, but we are still free here to move around, shop, pick up takeout and receive packages in the mail. Our extensive public transportation network hasn’t skipped a beat.

Sweden has a similarly lax policy. The United Kingdom, whose prime minister, Boris Johnson, had adhered to the same “herd immunity” policy as Rutte, introduced stricter measures on Monday, telling residents to stay home and ordering shops selling non-essential goods to shutter. Johnson on Monday finally ordered a full lockdown. "

You can employ a policy like that in places where most of the population is generally healthy. The obesity rates are relatively low in the Netherlands and Sweden. The U.K. is a different situation. As many doctors are seeing now, both young and old who are overweight or obese who have obstructive sleeping patterns, are at most risk. The hospital where my brother works has currently has four patients on ventilators and all four are under 40 and overweight. They lost one elderly patient who had multiple secondary issues. If you watched 60 minutes last night, New York is finding similar patterns.

 

[Badger]

I hope it succeeds. Natural selection, survival of the fittest. Darwin would be proud.

What if the virus only affects/kills smart people and only stupid people survive?




Cheers!

 

[Fermion]

I don’t know why we haven’t studied China and especially South Korea more closely, maybe the real experts (not politicians) in DC have. We’ve already proven our path hasn’t been as effective.

It is hard for us to copy countries that have a vastly different style of law and government. In China, they want to lock down a city, they lock down a city. There are no lawsuits against the government saying this is illegal. If you complain too much, you just sort of go away.

Here in the USA, we have medical professionals that will not even reveal the city that a diagnosed case is from, for privacy concerns. In other countries they track you with your cell phone if you are a carrier or have been in contact with one.

So when I hear "why can't we emulate China?", I do kind of roll my eyes a bit.

 

[Nemo2]

What if the virus only affects/kills smart people and only stupid people survive?

Phew.....now I feel better...off to the mall!

 

[teejayevans]

It doesn’t matter how many people get it, it matters how many people die.

If you can develop an immunity to it, and we were able to infect all those that won’t die, then the virus spread to be limited, and ideally fewer deaths. I bet computer models back this up, unfortunately people can’t be modeled, will they truly limit their exposure to just the healthy.

 

[Christine]

I live across the border in Norway.



110 deaths and 3 700 confirmed cases in Sweden. (Numbers from WHO)

22 deaths and 4 102 confirmed cases in Norway.


10.3 mill Swedes.

5.4 mill Norwegians.


My personal opinion is that the different approaches in handling C19 come down to the soul of the two countries.



In Norway there is a saying - if you want to start a company then get the creative Norwegians to invent a product, get the structured Swedes to make the product, and finally get the friendly Danes to sell the product.


It's my understanding that Swedes trust the governmental experts to know what they are talking about in larger extent than in other countries. We are a bit like that in Norway too - but not as much as in Sweden. Swedes are better at following rules and regulations.



And there is their strength - they have more large successful companies than Norway.


In Norway btw we do like many other countries - ban large groups, close schools, make people work from home, close hair dressers and restaurants and ask that everybody stay at home.

 

[Midpack]

It is hard for us to copy countries that have a vastly different style of law and government. In China, they want to lock down a city, they lock down a city. There are no lawsuits against the government saying this is illegal. If you complain too much, you just sort of go away.

Here in the USA, we have medical professionals that will not even reveal the city that a diagnosed case is from, for privacy concerns. In other countries they track you with your cell phone if you are a carrier or have been in contact with one.

So when I hear "why can't we emulate China?", I do kind of roll my eyes a bit.

Understood, so it's all or nothing?

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing, after they've exhausted all other possibilities...

 

[Midpack]

It doesn’t matter how many people get it, it matters how many people die. However, how many people die is also a function of healthcare capacity - e.g. flatten the curve.

If you can develop an immunity to it, and we were able to infect all those that won’t die, then the virus spread to be limited, and ideally fewer deaths. I bet computer models back this up, unfortunately people can’t be modeled, will they truly limit their exposure to just the healthy.

All true, except you have to factor healthcare capacity into your direction as I'm sure you realize. If too many people get infected too fast, some/many will die for lack of medical care.

 

[JoeWras]

Singapore can also control things pretty tight.

 

[GravitySucks]

Phew.....now I feel better...off to the mall!

To buy Lotto Tickets!

 

[FIREd_2015]

One big difference in approach with the Asian countries and the US was that the Asian countries (China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) are testing for COVID-19 antibodies whereas the US approach is to test for the virus itself.

The antibody test kits are much quicker and easier to manufacture so they were able to ramp up testing much faster but the antibody test has some drawbacks a key one being false negatives. For example, a person recently infected may not have developed enough antibodies to show up as positive. And as others have pointed out, the Governments in those Asian countries have a lot more control over their citizens so their approach worked out better for them.

Not sure where US would be today if we had started widespread antibody testing early on.

Added: The US took a targeted precision "rifle" approach meaning isolate each case as it is found whereas the Asian countries took the shotgun approach meaning test as many people as possible and isolate those that are positive. The rifle approach turned out not to be effective because we got overwhelmed and are now having to play catch up.

 

[teejayevans]

All true, except you have to factor healthcare capacity into your direction as I'm sure you realize. If too many people get infected too fast, some/many will die for lack of medical care.

True, but they are saying that for the young and healthy they don’t need hospital care, some are so mild that have it don’t even realize it’s not just a normal cold. Which is part of the problem, they become typhoid Marys. Although these days it’s hard to believe anyone would think that way.
The problem with flattening the curve, is you extend the curve time frame.
You’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t.

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

Which is part of the problem, they become typhoid Marys. Although these days it’s hard to believe anyone would think that way.

Like infamous patient 31 in South Korea, who inflected thousands.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/patient-31-upended-south-koreas-coronavirus-containment-efforts-showcasing-importance-of-testing-and-social-distancing.html

Definitely some stupidity involved.

 

[audreyh1]

True, but they are saying that for the young and healthy they don’t need hospital care, some are so mild that have it don’t even realize it’s not just a normal cold. Which is part of the problem, they become typhoid Marys. Although these days it’s hard to believe anyone would think that way.
The problem with flattening the curve, is you extend the curve time frame.
You’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t.

Typhoid Mary carried the disease for years. There have not been reports of asymptomatic Covid-19 folks remaining indefinitely contagious.

 

[mpeirce]

Ah, the Web is my friend.

Sweden, population of 10.12 million, 22377 hospital beds (2017). That's 2.2 beds per 1000.

For the US, the number is 2.8 beds per 1000. Italy: 3.2 beds per 1000.

The UK and Canada are comparable to the US.

Here are the shocking numbers.

Japan leads with 13 beds/1000. Next is South Korea with 12 beds/1000. Germany is 8 beds/1000.

From what I've read it's the number of ICU beds that's important.

Stats (critical care beds per 100,000 people) from https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...st-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/

34.7 USA
29.2 Germany
12.5 Italy
11.6 France
10.6 South Korea
9.7 Spain
7.3 Japan
6.6 UK
3.6 PRC
2.3 India

 

[audreyh1]

Right - ICU beds.

Didn’t know US was so high.

 

[Ready]

Typhoid Mary carried the disease for years. There have not been reports of asymptomatic Covid-19 folks remaining indefinitely contagious.

But there have been reports of infected people being cleared of all symptoms and then redeveloping the infection weeks later. Which brings up the question of whether our bodies can develop antibodies that give us any long term immunity. If we don’t have that the cycle may keep repeating itself and we may never reach that flat point at the end of the curve we are all hoping for some day.

 

[CardsFan]

But there have been reports of infected people being cleared of all symptoms and then redeveloping the infection weeks later. Which brings up the question of whether our bodies can develop antibodies that give us any long term immunity. If we don’t have that the cycle may keep repeating itself and we may never reach that flat point at the end of the curve we are all hoping for some day.

WADR, "reports" are not data. Were these people tested negative? Or were they simply past the isolation period? We don't know.

There have been "reports" (conjecture) that 1 million people in the US will die. There have been "reports (conjecture) that 5,000 people in the US will die.

We live in an "I want it now" society. Data on a disease like this does not work that way. So, people create "data" from "reports".

Take a deep breath, relax, and follow the guidelines.

Back on topic, Sweden's actions will actually provide some data (a year from now, not next week) on how to react in the future.

 

[audreyh1]

But there have been reports of infected people being cleared of all symptoms and then redeveloping the infection weeks later. Which brings up the question of whether our bodies can develop antibodies that give us any long term immunity. If we don’t have that the cycle may keep repeating itself and we may never reach that flat point at the end of the curve we are all hoping for some day.

I do not believe it was weeks, rather days. Few enough days that many experts believe that it was a relapse not a reinfection, or that the viral load was so low as to be undetectable for a couple of days before being detected again.

 

[brewer12345]

True, but they are saying that for the young and healthy they don’t need hospital care, some are so mild that have it don’t even realize it’s not just a normal cold. Which is part of the problem, they become typhoid Marys. Although these days it’s hard to believe anyone would think that way.
The problem with flattening the curve, is you extend the curve time frame.
You’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t.

You have to drink a jug of poison in order to leave your prison cell. Do you chug it all at once or take a small sip every day for a year?

 

[MuirWannabe]

You have to drink a jug of poison in order to leave your prison cell. Do you chug it all at once or take a small sip every day for a year?

I’ve always been a ‘chug it down’ kind of guy. Get it over with. But, I’m not advocating that as the smartest position.