Sweden’s “Bold Experiment?”

[Nemo2]

You have to drink a jug of poison in order to leave your prison cell. Do you chug it all at once or take a small sip every day for a year?

Do you develop immunity from it by daily sipping, or do you die from it either way?

 

[teejayevans]

You have to drink a jug of poison in order to leave your prison cell. Do you chug it all at once or take a small sip every day for a year?

That’s a straw man.

 

[Sunset]

Typhoid Mary carried the disease for years. There have not been reports of asymptomatic Covid-19 folks remaining indefinitely contagious.

Of course without testing everyone, we will never find the asymptomatic Covid-19 person remaining indefinitely contagious as they will never feel sick enough to come to our attention. They themselves won't even know, in fact I could be that person as I feel fine

 

[Rustic23]

Latest figures I have seen Sweden has 4,028 cases, and 146 deaths. That is about a 3.6% death rate. Now if they are protecting the most at risk population, I would expect a lower death rate. May be too small of a sample size to be meaningful. As has been said only time will tell.

 

[Just_Steve]

It is hard for us to copy countries that have a vastly different style of law and government. In China, they want to lock down a city, they lock down a city. There are no lawsuits against the government saying this is illegal. If you complain too much, you just sort of go away.

Here in the USA, we have medical professionals that will not even reveal the city that a diagnosed case is from, for privacy concerns. In other countries they track you with your cell phone if you are a carrier or have been in contact with one.

So when I hear "why can't we emulate China?", I do kind of roll my eyes a bit.

+1
?Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’"

https://news.yahoo.com/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-164859600.html

 

[Ready]

+1
?Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’"

https://news.yahoo.com/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-164859600.html

I tend to believe the article more than the numbers we are hearing from the Chinese government. I think the death toll in China is much worse than they are willing to admit.

 

[Spock]

I think a hybrid approach will work. Heavy isolation of the population at higher risk of dying from it. Still practice "social distancing" (no large crowds). Local restaurants have started posting photos of their brand spanking new "covid19 cleaning training" certificates, so let them stay open with reduced table capacity. Immediately quarantine those with symptoms (yes, it can be spread by asymptomatics, but all of these are steps to reduce not steps to 100% prevent). Etc.

At current pace the US is going to be on lock down until there is a vaccine... earliest trials of which are starting in Sept? There won't be an economy left by June. Inflation on consumables is already skyrocketing when you can find them. So you get the choice of maybe dying quick from the virus or dying slow by starvation. Given the choice I'd take the "maybe" of the virus.

 

[Corporateburnout]

I tend to believe the article more than the numbers we are hearing from the Chinese government. I think the death toll in China is much worse than they are willing to admit.

Add Iran to the list of countries with suspicious death toll numbers. Financial times reported (I can't find the link) that their infections and deaths are at least 3 times higher than the official numbers.

 

[brewer12345]

+1
?Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’"

https://news.yahoo.com/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-164859600.html

That, plus I can tell you if the authorities show up to try to weld the doors of my house shut as was done to people in Wuhan they are going to need a SWAT team to do it.

 

[brewer12345]

That’s a straw man.

It is an analogy. But do tell...

 

[audreyh1]

Of course without testing everyone, we will never find the asymptomatic Covid-19 person remaining indefinitely contagious as they will never feel sick enough to come to our attention. They themselves won't even know, in fact I could be that person as I feel fine

Well if new people around you keep getting sick, and you don’t, that might be a pretty big clue!

 

[RobbieB]

The picture of Dorian Grey

 

[Just_Steve]

That, plus I can tell you if the authorities show up to try to weld the doors of my house shut as was done to people in Wuhan they are going to need a SWAT team to do it.

For sure.

 

[P.S.]

Social distancing is the cultural norm in Sweden. Despite that, their back of the envelope fatality rate is climbing, so they may have just started farther left on the x-axis. I really think the Italian way of life may have contributed to SARS CoV2 spread. I don’t speak Italian, but when I lived in Italy, had no problem communicating well with my landlords. They speak with their upper extremities, not just hands, and I wonder if all that gesticulating, in churning the air help spread viral particles, kind of like insufflating virus into another’s nose and mouth.

 

[walkinwood]

This article may shed some light on what the Swedes are doing and a bit on their culture. I apologize if it has already been posted.


https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200328-how-to-self-isolate-what-we-can-learn-from-sweden

 

[Rustic23]

Mar 31
Sweden
Confirmed: 4,435
Deaths: 180 4.25%
Recovered: 16
Active: 4,239

 

[Freedom56]

I have been to Sweden many times. Their population is generally healthy with a fairly low prevalence of obesity. That isn't the case here. Obesity causes diabetes, heart conditions, obstructive sleep apnea, and digestive problems, that lead to worse outcomes when infected by the coronavirus. What may work for Sweden and other countries, would be dangerous here.

 

[Chuckanut]

Success or Failure, the Swedish experiment will help us learn how to deal with future infection threats. I wish them well.

 

[CRLLS]

According to the Johns Hopkins corona site, it would appear that Sweden's daily rate of infection has been increasing along a straight line over the past 4 weeks. While not exponential, they certainly do not have a handle on this yet. Maybe in a few more weeks.....?

 

[Ian S]

According to the Johns Hopkins corona site, it would appear that Sweden's daily rate of infection has been increasing along a straight line over the past 4 weeks. While not exponential, they certainly do not have a handle on this yet. Maybe in a few more weeks.....?

I really doubt that a straight line (i.e. constant slope) would be a good fit for that data! It may not be exponential but just eyeballing it, it looks to have a curve with increasing slope.

 

[BigNick]

I really doubt that a straight line (i.e. constant slope) would be a good fit for that data! It may not be exponential but just eyeballing it, it looks to have a curve with increasing slope.

If the daily rate of new cases (which is the first-order differential of the total cases since the start) is itself increasing (i.e., the second-order differential is also positive), you've got yourself an exponential curve.

 

[FIREd_2015]

My post earlier that was deleted wasn't meant to be political so leaving politics aside I've been casually following Sweden's infection rates on worldometers and have noticed that they are slowly moving up on the list. A couple of days ago they were below Norway and quite a few number of infections below Australia but now are above Norway and are very close to the same number of infections as Australia. I realize this is subjective and there isn't enough data points yet to know for certain but so far the "bold experiment" isn't looking so good. Given that asymptomatic transmissions are well documented it will be interesting to see at what point they decide to change course or do they continue on and try to achieve herd immunity.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[audreyh1]

We’ll see when their hospitals are overwhelmed - not enough ICU beds.

 

[FIREd_2015]

We’ll see when their hospitals are overwhelmed - not enough ICU beds.

Isn't that like closing the barn door after all the horses have bolted...

 

[audreyh1]

Well, yeah.

That seems to be the bet that they are making, that their health care system won’t be overwhelmed.

They are not in the top ten of ICU beds per capita.