Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?

[MRG]

What timeframe?

I don't know what the market will do but I expect more fear and uncertainty will make it go down. I don't think we have any idea how much fear will be generated as the death toll rises. Nor do I think the average person has the capacity to understand what the numbers indicate.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

 

[Rowej]

What do you think?

Nope, I think 14,500 is more likely

 

[brewer12345]

Everyone seems to be eagerly looking for the peak. That doesn't really mean squat. This stuff will still be loose and relaxing lockdowns will just result in more flare-ups. Watch for progress on vaccines.

 

[Ready]

I forecast the stock market curve to be inversely proportional to the infection curve.

 

[ckelly78z]

Sadly, the worst is yet to come with a mounting death toll.

I think the bottom (stock market) will be at the top of the curve (Covid19 U.S death rate) in another few weeks according to everything i've seen.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

10 days? If that is your timeline, abandon all hope.

That's a comment on Italy, not the world. If they are on the other side of the peak, new infection rate should be ramping down quickly.

They peaked on March 21 at about 6500 new cases. Last few days have been about 4000-4500. 10 days from now it could be below 1000, which would suggest they have gotten the lid back on in Italy.

 

[DrRoy]

I can say with absolute certainty that it may have been the bottom, or it may not.

 

[brewer12345]

That's a comment on Italy, not the world. If they are on the other side of the peak, new infection rate should be ramping down quickly.

They peaked on March 21 at about 6500 new cases. Last few days have been about 4000-4500. 10 days from now it could be below 1000, which would suggest they have gotten the lid back on in Italy.

And then what? Let everyone roam around free? Can't do that until we have a vaccine in a year or so. Ramping down new cases is effectively meaningless as far as the economy goes.

 

[PatrickA5]

All depends on how long the economy is shut down and how much of that shut down is priced in. I don't know the answer to either, but I suspect we're going to be in shutdown mode well into June. I don't see things opening up May 1st.

 

[RunningBum]

The question is, how much of this gloomy probable outlook priced into the market now?

 

[eytonxav]

I am waiting to see what the clinical trial of hydrochlorquine/Z Pack therapeutic treatment going on in NYC shows. If that is a silver bullet, market will rise.

 

[eytonxav]

The other words of wisdom "the market has already priced it in" go out the window in this environment, although I am not sure that was ever true.

 

[RunningBum]

The other words of wisdom "the market has already priced it in" go out the window in this environment, although I am not sure that was ever true.

I disagree. Some estimate of the future effects of the virus are priced in. How accurate those estimates are will determine the direction of the market.

The Dow was down to near 18,000 on March 23. In the days since then, there infection rate in the US has and continues to increase, job loss numbers are out and it is known they will get worse, yet the Dow is up something like 15% since then. How could that possibly be? Could it be that the virus effects were priced into the market on March 23, perhaps too much? Nobody has a crystal ball to foretell the future, but investors do try.

 

[Badger]

At the moment I don't really care which way it goes. If my wife and I don't survive Covid-19 it won't make any difference to me.


Cheers!

 

[RunningBum]

At the moment I don't really care which way it goes. If my wife and I don't survive Covid-19 it won't make any difference to me.

Well, that's true for all of us, but I figure my odds are low to catch the virus, and even lower to die from it, so I still monitor my investments in the likely case I stay around.

 

[razztazz]

Well, that's true for all of us, but I figure my odds are low to catch the virus, and even lower to die from it, so I still monitor my investments in the likely case I stay around.

Yes. I'm more worried about the worst case scenario: What if I keep living? Then what will I do?

 

[DAYDREAMER]

I don't think the Fed can backstop the trickle down affect of the millions of people not paying bills/debts. My bet, this black swan event takes out more than we can imagine.

 

[homestead]

I am waiting to see what the clinical trial of hydrochlorquine/Z Pack therapeutic treatment going on in NYC shows. If that is a silver bullet, market will rise.

Saw this yesterday...

"Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'"

I hope it's true!

 

[donheff]

Saw this yesterday...

"Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'"

I hope it's true!

Interesting. Dr Oskui is my cardiologist.

 

[razztazz]

Saw this yesterday...

"Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'"

I hope it's true!

Wrong. It might be the beginning of the end of many or most deaths from it but that's all.

 

[DallasGuy]

12-15k range is my guess for the low. There will NOT be a quick turn around...too much damage will be done with thousands of businesses going under or declaring bankruptcy.

 

[brewer12345]

Frankly, my concerns include none of us getting this plague, trying to scrounge groceries, worrying a less well prepared family and friends, and wondering when the crime wave will pick up. Where the market bottoms is of interest and I will certainly star buying when I think we are there, but I am guessing I will know it when some of these concerns are are alleviated.

 

[Dtail]

Frankly, my concerns include none of us getting this plague, trying to scrounge groceries, worrying a less well prepared family and friends, and wondering when the crime wave will pick up. Where the market bottoms is of interest and I will certainly star buying when I think we are there, but I am guessing I will know it when some of these concerns are are alleviated.

Could you elaborate on your crime wave statement? I was always wondering would this society ever get to a point of wide scale lawlessness.

 

[brewer12345]

Could you elaborate on your crime wave statement? I was always wondering would this society ever get to a point of wide scale lawlessness.

Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.

 

[razztazz]

Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.

Hardly catastrophic. It's like what happens every year. It's called Summer.