When will the restrictions be lifted?

[JustCurious]

When will the Coronavirus restrictions be lifted?

When do you think the coronavirus restrictions will be lifted in your area? To be specific, I am asking for your prediction for when the earlier of the following two dates will occur:

1) There are no longer any stay at home orders that apply to you in your state or local jurisdiction, or

2) You can go to a full service restaurant in your area and sit down and eat inside.

I predict June 15, 2020.

 

[Scuba]

Had hoped for sometime in May, but now I’m thinking now it won’t happen until my state runs out of money. Then our leaders will realize some risk must be taken or tax revenue dries up. I guess we must be flush with cash in CA because our governor just implemented a $125 million stimulus program for undocumented immigrants.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...yments-to-immigrants-hurt-by-coronavirus.html

 

[Just_Steve]

When do you think the coronavirus restrictions will be lifted in your area? To be specific, I am asking for your prediction for when the earlier of the following two dates will occur:

1) There are no longer any stay at home orders that apply to you in your state or local jurisdiction, or

2) You can go to a full service restaurant in your area and sit down and eat inside.

I predict June 15, 2020.

I foresee different opening times throughout NY, most of the issues are downstate so I expect upstate to be open soon.

 

[SecondCor521]

As a non-high-risk individual living in a state which some people think has already achieved phase 1 of the new federal government plan, and our governor stating in his address on Wednesday that he wanted to proceed in two week increments, I predict that both item 1 and item 2 will occur for me on April 30.

I am a relentless optimist. Some might say Pollyanna.

 

[Amethyst]

Federal Guidelines for Re-opening

Well, here we go again with "What's elderly"? The Federal guidelines for re-opening have an Appendix definining "vulnerable individuals" who should continue to shelter in place during the phases of opening.

1. Elderly individuals. [No age range listed]

2. Individuals with serious underlying health conditions, including high
blood pressure, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity , asthma, and
thosewhose immune system is compromised such as by chemotherapy
for cancer and other conditions requiring such therapy.

So, if you're 60ish and have no underlying issues, are you still "elderly"? A 20-something would of course say "Yes," but what about everyone else?

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...er_id=cd04b9671f7b414d639a1de903bfd0fc#page=1

 

[dixonge]

Our city started blocking off certain downtown streets at night and implementing fever checks and a bit of interrogation for drivers and pedestrians. The lockdown has been extended from 4/30 to 5/17. Our state (around the size of S. Carolina) has 22 confirmed cases and 2 deaths.

 

[DrRoy]

I have tickets to a concert that was moved to August that I doubt will occur then, and another event with about 250 people in Nov that I see as 50 - 50.

 

[Ronstar]

The Illinois governor has virtually met with 6 other midwest governors to set up a plan to coordinate the reopening of the economy.

The plan specifies four factors that will determine when to reopen:

Sustained control of the rate of new infections and hospitalizations.
Enhanced ability to test and trace.
Sufficient health care capacity to handle resurgence.
And best practices for social distancing in the workplace.

The plan also states that the economy may not reopen all at once or that all states will reopen at the same time.


The 4 factors are quite subjective and not very quantifiable IMO. Even so, I predict Illinois will ease some of the stay at home requirements May 10, 2020.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/cor...o-coordinate-on-reopening-of-economy/2256936/

 

[PatrickA5]

Well, here we go again with "What's elderly"? The Federal guidelines for re-opening have an Appendix definining "vulnerable individuals" who should continue to shelter in place during the phases of opening.

1. Elderly individuals. [No age range listed]

2. Individuals with serious underlying health conditions, including high
blood pressure, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity , asthma, and
thosewhose immune system is compromised such as by chemotherapy
for cancer and other conditions requiring such therapy.

So, if you're 60ish and have no underlying issues, are you still "elderly"? A 20-something would of course say "Yes," but what about everyone else?

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...er_id=cd04b9671f7b414d639a1de903bfd0fc#page=1

I would think over 60 would probably be elderly. My state has a "safer at home" policy which applies to people 65 or older and/or underlying conditions.

 

[FIREd]

I live on the border between 2 jurisdictions. One is supposed to lift the stay-at-home order on April 27th, the other on May 11th.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Honestly, we have not thought about it, and do not really care much. Our habbits have not changed hardly at all. What I do know is this month we have spend double what we spent last month on food!

 

[Golden sunsets]

I foresee different opening times throughout NY, most of the issues are downstate so I expect upstate to be open soon.

Cuomo just extended his Executive Order for the State of New York to 5-15.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Honestly, we have not thought about it, and do not really care much. Our habbits have not changed hardly at all. What I do know is this month we have spend double what we spent last month on food!

So you are not following your state's stay at home order, or you live in one of the states that have no orders?

 

[gwraigty]

Ohio is going to start a slow, gradual reopening in phases on May 1st. Details to be determined.

 

[Aerides]

Having read the new federal phasing guidance, they all seem to start once a state/area has seen 14 days of decline in cases and has hospital capacity, + robust testing in place. Then it's a phased approach to what will open and when.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-84eb-d46f-affb-a5fbcb410000

 

[Midpack]

It won’t be a single date, and it won’t be the same schedule for all people in all places, it’ll happen in steps. Some restrictions will be lifted in May-June in some places for lower risk people. Some restrictions may have to wait for a proven vaccine, reportedly 12-18 months. And other steps will be happen between May and mid-2021. Large public gatherings (concerts, movies, sports) and close personal contact (restaurants, haircuts, dentists, commercial travel) look like the toughest challenges. Schools?

It will be a long time until there aren’t any restrictions, but there will be some permanently changed practices - e.g. masks, temp monitoring, cleaning/disinfecting, etc. Some people will rush back in, some will be much more cautious regardless of government restrictions. Online alternatives will replace even more activities, sooner than they would have otherwise thanks to coronavirus.

We should lift restrictions and restart the economy as soon as we’re sure we won’t overwhelm health care resources - we’re not there yet, we need way more testing for starters.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

So you are not following your state's stay at home order, or you live in one of the states that have no orders?

Not what I said at all, you are speculating. I said it really has not affected us at all, and it has not. Went grocery shopping as normal yesterday, and picked up prescriptions as normal.

 

[jollystomper]

Just as I cannot predict what the market indices will be in the future, I cannot predict when the restrictions will be lifted.

IMHO though, the warmer it gets, the more pressure there will be to lift some restrictions regardless. Having a stay-at-home order during a sweltering heat wave in crowded areas is a potential recipe for disaster.

 

[mpeirce]

Honestly, we have not thought about it, and do not really care much. Our habbits have not changed hardly at all.

Same for us.

The only significant activity we aren't doing is going to the Y. Instead we're walking in the neighborhood more (when the weather permits) and using weights and an exercise bike at home. It's harder to keep to a schedule at home it seems.

DD works in a hospital in CA so she's still working going out to work most days. She says doing speech therapy has its challenges when people are wearing masks ;-)

DS is cooped up in a studio apartment in Manhattan. Still working though. It'll be a long time before he ventures back on the subway.

 

[Midpack]

Having read the new federal phasing guidance, they all seem to start once a state/area has seen 14 days of decline in cases and has hospital capacity, + robust testing in place. Then it's a phased approach to what will open and when.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-84eb-d46f-affb-a5fbcb410000

Lots of unanswered questions (many things we don’t know, or don’t have capability yet), but a good starting framework.

 

[Gumby]

0937 GMT on 08 SEP 2021 +/- 28 seconds.

 

[Chuckanut]

So, if you're 60ish and have no underlying issues, are you still "elderly"? A 20-something would of course say "Yes," but what about everyone else?

I don't consider myself elderly just older. But I do know that if I injure my body it takes longer to heal. So, when restrictions start to lift, I will be going out but avoiding people and places with higher risk factors. Taking the road less traveled sounds good to me.

Imoldernu? I did not hear about that. How sad. I enjoyed his writing.

 

[Just_Steve]

Cuomo just extended his Executive Order for the State of New York to 5-15.

Yes, I seen that, I was thinking in May more of upstate will be opened as opposed to NYC.

 

[Midpack]

Well, here we go again with "What's elderly"? The Federal guidelines for re-opening have an Appendix defining "vulnerable individuals" who should continue to shelter in place during the phases of opening.

1. Elderly individuals. [No age range listed]

2. Individuals with serious underlying health conditions, including high
blood pressure, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity , asthma, and
those whose immune system is compromised such as by chemotherapy
for cancer and other conditions requiring such therapy.

So, if you're 60ish and have no underlying issues, are you still "elderly"? A 20-something would of course say "Yes," but what about everyone else?

Probably because #2 is primary, and age is secondary. There are many active healthy 70 year olds who are at significantly lower risk than many 50 year olds because of underlying health conditions. The correlation with age is largely (not entirely) because health issues are more common with age, not age alone. Risk of dying from Covid-19 is along a continuum with age only one of many factors (age is secondary IMO), it's not as if at some particular age you're at risk and under that age you're not.

Even at age 85 and older, the highest risk age group, only 564 out of 1,000,000 have died from Covid-19 so far (pardon the "only") - though the final number is projected to be 4 to 6 times that. If we reach 60K deaths and extrapolate from current age data, about 2,600 per million of the 85+ age cohort will die from Covid-19. IOW, 99.7% of the 85+ age cohort will survive Covid-19 - and again this is the "age" group most at risk. I'm not saying any death is acceptable, just to put this in perspective.

Bottom line is the elderly are going to have to take some responsibility in making their own decisions regarding their individual risks and therefore how much exposure they're willing to take on - if at all before there's a proven vaccine. And the vaccine may not be 100% effective.

 

[Bestwifeever]

I would think over 60 would probably be elderly. My state has a "safer at home" policy which applies to people 65 or older and/or underlying conditions.

I had read earlier that one of the reasons we are at risk for Covid-19 at 60 plus is that our bone marrow is aging in spite of ourselves--one of those sneaky aging things we cannot control. So yes, 60 would likely be a cutoff age. It would be less disheartening to see an age number given vs using the term "elderly" as I'll never consider myself as elderly