Ready
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I don't think there is anything long term wrong with the market.
I don’t either. But depending on your age, you may no longer be in a position to be considering long term returns.
I don't think there is anything long term wrong with the market.
I don't think there is anything long term wrong with the market.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
View attachment 34925
Earnings collapsing, Economy collapsing, prices rising.
Go Figure.
+1Boy, you sure do know everything.
There is some kind of freakish disconnect going on.
2019 peak earnings were 140 a share for s&p 500. Right?
So right now it’s trading at over 20x past peak earnings and a much bigger multiple for 2020 and almost certainly 2021 earnings.
If we are lucky we can get back to the previous level in 2022.
To me, it reeks of being overpriced, especially given the huge amount of uncertain stuff. Estimate are unemployment stays above 9% thru 2021 at this point (cbo).
I agree on equities for the long term. Always have (along with real estate).
But something is wrong, and when something is wrong like this it is time to dial down risk.
A lack of a long term plan leads to emotional decisions like these.
You now have to make at least one more correct decision or stay in cash the rest of your life.
I see more and more evidence on this board of people who do not have a strategy first investment plan.
Based on prior year posts made it seem like almost everyone on here had one.
Maybe this year is the great shakeout.
Reminds me of the Mike Tyson quote. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
And on the personal investing front:
We had another neighborhood street happy hour last Friday. A recently retired corporate lawyer (and very success senior partner) told me he is completely out of the stock market for the first time in his life because of unrealistic forward PE estimates. His firm was in Delaware, so he provided legal advice primarily for companies listed on the NYSE.
.
.
.
But what the hell does he know anyway?
+1
Takes an awful lot of arrogance to tell someone who decided to sell their stocks that they don't have a plan, or that they don't stick to it. It's really saying that if you ever change your asset allocation drastically then you're naive or worse.
All the critic is saying is that you're stupid if you don't agree with me as to the economic results of a worldwide pandemic given the amazing lack of knowledge or even lack of consensus opinion on how this will end.
Then there's this silly trope that now you have to make another smart decision as to when the op gets back in. One 1% pullback and she can go back in and be ahead if she wants.
If the facts change what do smart people do?
Maybe this should be placed in the COVID containment section? The fear driving this action seems to be 100% related to that issue, not based on any financial plan? JMHO.
A lack of a long term plan leads to emotional decisions like these.
You now have to make at least one more correct decision or stay in cash the rest of your life.
Not moving, as this took 3 pages to mention C.
Op here--I have had a long term plan for 40 years that I have closely followed until now.. But I have never seen an economic situation like we are in now and so decided that my long term plan was no longer working for me. Maybe it was an emotional decision but I think I will sleep much better tonight. Maybe I will stay cash/bonds/ CDs the rest of my life, that might be the best for me at my age (almost 70). But I will probably not. Some day there may be a vaccine or an antiviral and I will get back in the market. Or maybe some day our government will do a better job in managing things and I will get back into the market. We shall see.
You didn’t start it, the others did by ignoring your question and instead choosing to focus on the allocation aspect.OP here, wow I did not mean to start a war. I just thought it was worth mentioning that someone who was an investor for 40 years was getting out of the market. My situation is different than most--I feel I have won the game. DH gets SS and a pension and I get half his SS and we can live on that (especially now that we are spending little money). At age 70 (in 1.5 years) I will receive $3,000 a month in SS so we will be in the lap of luxury. We are not big spenders and have no debt and no one depending on an inheritance from us.
My actions were related to what I see as a very overpriced market that in my opinion has no justification.
I will decide what to do with all the money market funds in the near future--CDs? Bonds? Treasuries? but I just don't think stocks are the right place for me to be now.