Not So Fast-Here We Go Again

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My sister lives in TX, doesn’t look good at the moment https://www.newsweek.com/coronaviru...-started-texas-medical-officials-warn-1510550.

I’m afraid the state I live in is headed for the same, too many citizens have decided they’re invincible again. Everyone is an expert these days, except experts...
If you look at the graph, Texas is clearly still in it’s first wave, as there was very little reduction and they keep moving on to new highs.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...how&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu

That Newsweek article links the new surge to Memorial Day which sounds plausible to me.

Also, another article mentioned that not only are cases increasing quickly in several states but that the % testing positive is also rising, indicating that’s it’s not just a matter of more testing happening.
 
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If you look at the graph, Texas is clearly still in it’s first wave, as there was very little reduction and they keep moving on to new highs.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...how&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu

That Newsweek article links the new surge to Memorial Day which sounds plausible to me.

Also, another article mentioned that not only are cases increasing quickly in several states but that the % testing positive is also rising, indicating that’s it’s not just a matter of more testing happening.

Case numbers and hospitalizations in my state look to be bumping along the bottom. I am guessing that we will see a steady rise soon as things started opening back up around memorial day.
 
If you look at the graph, Texas is clearly still in it’s first wave, as there was very little reduction and they keep moving on to new highs.
...

Also, another article mentioned that not only are cases increasing quickly in several states but that the % testing positive is also rising, indicating that’s it’s not just a matter of more testing happening.

+1

The percentage of tests coming back positive here have increased by 25% in the past week.
 
So far we have gone down and are now plateaued at a much lower level than 2 months ago. I just had my teeth cleaned and I will be getting a haircut next week. I am concerned that recent demonstrations in my area will cause a significant upturn in infections and maybe even the dreaded spike. So, I want to get this stuff done before there are renewed shutdowns and/or an increase in infectious people walking about.
 
....

I'm doing a slow stock-up of cleaning supplies, and will keep ahead a bit in terms of TP, and maybe getting a couple of masks if I can. It was difficult to make ours with our old sewing machine. I'm keeping the freezer fairly full and have scoped out several local sources of eggs. We can get by without fresh or even any vegetables (there are people who have been carnivores for years), but without good protein sources, it will be hard.

By staying prepared, I won't be "hoarding" when the time comes. We'll be staying home when people in the stores are freaking out.

+1
I'm building up my supply of food (canned, pasta, coffee, etc) and keeping the freezer full each weekly curbside pickup.
Actually running out of shelf space for the stored food. :)

I know some folks think it's silly, but it's not a waste of money, as should a vaccine come soon, I just won't have to buy as much food for months as we eat into the stored food.
 
Our local test positive numbers are going up as well as deaths. And the mask free naysayers forge on.
 
I'm doing a slow stock-up of cleaning supplies, and will keep ahead a bit in terms of TP, and maybe getting a couple of masks if I can. It was difficult to make ours with our old sewing machine. I'm keeping the freezer fairly full and have scoped out several local sources of eggs. We can get by without fresh or even any vegetables (there are people who have been carnivores for years), but without good protein sources, it will be hard.

By staying prepared, I won't be "hoarding" when the time comes. We'll be staying home when people in the stores are freaking out.

I'm also keeping my pantry full and I'm stocking up on disposable masks and hand sanitizer now that they are back in stock everywhere. The number of COVID patients in ICUs has been dropping for the past 2 months here in France but, as a result, people are being more careless now. So far the test and trace method seems to work well enough to keep clusters from expanding out of control and generating a second wave,. But I'd better stay prepared. The garden is starting to produce fresh vegetables and fruits. We've been enjoying plenty of salads, radishes, rhubarb, and cherries so far. Fresh potatoes and zucchinis are only a few weeks away. And my freezer is packed with meat and fish.
 
Read an article that 80% of infections are spread by "super spreaders" meaning 70% of those infected don't pass on the infection.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...es-behind-80-of-transmission-studies-suggest/

But we don't know who will be super spreaders. We don't know why some people are asymptomatic -- never develop symptoms, while other people go on to suffer cytokine storms and die. Sure generally age and comorbidities.

What we do know are some of the super spreading events, like large gatherings, people spending extended time together in close quarters, etc.

I even read a blog where someone estimated the different amount of viral loads in different types of respiratory activities, such as coughing or sneezing vs. regular breaths, singing vs. heavy breaths from exercising, etc.
 
First, there is actually no health risk to wearing a mask. Your state provides exceptions. These exceptions most likely apply to machinery in the environment, not individual health risk, even though the language indicates otherwise.Your state also requires written justification. I'll see if my state requires it.

From Ohio's (your state) Department of Health website:

Q: Are there exceptions?

A: Yes. Employers and employees are not required to wear face coverings if it is not advised due to health reasons,
against documented industry best practices, prohibited for a specific position by law or regulation, or a violation of a company’s safety policy. A face covering also is not required if an employee is working alone in an enclosed workspace or if there is a practical reason one cannot be worn. If any of these exceptions apply, written justification must be provided upon request.

Surely you don't believe that half the employees are exempt from wearing a mask because of a health concern. And if they were exempt from wearing a mask, why were the masks on but over the chin?, which is completely useless?

Second, there really are not health issues that preclude wearing a mask. It does not restrict oxygen supply or diffusion of carbon dioxide away from the person. If masks cause health issues, what about the health care environment, with its PPE and procedures for taking care of infected patients and in the OR?

Is it snitching to call out systematic violations of state health department policy? Of course not.

It's interesting that you felt the need to respond to me and that you're lecturing me on my state's requirements as if I don't already know them. :rolleyes: I've watched my state's daily press conferences since March. I'm well aware, much more than you are, of my state's requirements for wearing a mask. The part you've quoted above is as they intended. It does allow for individual health risk, as well as industry safety and health risk. Your opinion of my state's mask-wearing requirements is not based on the facts as presented by my state governor and Lt. Gov.

DeWine & Co. talked about the mask requirements over several press conferences. I've posted on this forum about them as the whole saga was unfolding in Ohio in late April (masks being required for everyone, then masks only being required for employees, then exceptions being made because mask wearing is prohibited by law under certain working conditions including - but not limited to - industrial settings and for persons who have health conditions where wearing a mask can make someone ill). I've watched as DeWine flip-flopped, backtracked, whatever you want to call it, and pushed Lt. Gov. Husted to respond to the reporters grilling him over the issue. Here's the proof (employee requirements start at the 2 min. mark of this 6 min. video):


As far as your opinion that there are no health issues that would prevent someone from wearing a mask, it's quite easy to find from several sources via a Google search that mask wearing isn't recommended for people suffering from breathing problems, like pulmonary conditions. Asthma and COPD are sometimes specifically mentioned. I have no conditions that prevent me from wearing a mask, so I can't offer an opinion on the accuracy of that. I've had an elderly fellow shopper comment to me that wearing a mask makes it quite difficult for her to breathe after a few minutes. I didn't ask her to give me her health history to prove it.

I'm not a know-it-all or a mind reader, but I'd agree that it's unlikely that several employees stocking shelves, or whatever they were doing when you saw them, all have health conditions or that the working conditions allow for them to not have had their masks pulled up, unless the air conditioning happened to be broken at the time. :) Last week when I was at a grocery store, a young man was stocking paper towels. He had his mask on correctly. A middle aged older woman a few feet away from him was writing something on a clipboard. She had her mask down around her neck, like you're describing. She started coughing, noticed me, and hurriedly pulled her mask up over her face. :facepalm: At this same store, most employees wear their masks properly. What I saw is a rare outlier and I know that. I've seen the employees pull their masks down temporarily when they need to talk to each other for job related purposes, then they pull them back up. It can be hard to understand someone with the mask up and with ambient noise. I've been asked to repeat myself with my mask up, if I have to ask a question of an employee.

I've chosen to not report employees who don't have their masks up. I'm not following them around all day to know what the reason is, how long they have their masks down, if it's sanctioned by management, or the industry standards. What could be the consequences of reporting it? At the least, the employees are reprimanded and watched more carefully. Maybe that's what you're hoping for. At the worst, the health department shuts the store down for violating the state mask policy. Yikes, I certainly don't want that to happen to a grocery store! :eek: If I'm concerned enough, I'll do what I need to do for me. There are other options, as you well know. Shop at another store. Do curbside pickup. Shop online. I'm not interested in being the "mask police".
 
Which way was the wind blowing? I try to position myself upwind in situations like this.
And WHO still has one meter distancing and several countries put it at 1.5 meters. But then CDC now says 14 feet unmasked. In the future, have a mask with you I guess, and you putting it on might startle her? Maybe have a mask for her? She might be shocked into silence with that!

I was downwind. :( I hadn't heard of 14 feet. This neighbor isn't anyone I talk with regularly. A year or two might pass between conversations with her, seriously. Maybe now I know why. :LOL: I actually drove past her house later and she was standing in her driveway talking the ear off of a young couple who were standing about 10 feet away from her in the street.
 
+1
I'm building up my supply of food (canned, pasta, coffee, etc) and keeping the freezer full each weekly curbside pickup.
Actually running out of shelf space for the stored food. :)

I know some folks think it's silly, but it's not a waste of money, as should a vaccine come soon, I just won't have to buy as much food for months as we eat into the stored food.

It's not silly at all.
 
Let’s remember we’re among friends here. Let’s try to not personalize the discussion. We’re all here to share and learn.
 
From yesterday's AZ Central daily COVID watch:

"Arizona's number of identified COVID-19 cases has reached 32,918 (up 1,654 from Thursday), with 1,144 known deaths (up 17 from Thursday).

This was the most new cases ever reported in Arizona in a single day. Inpatient hospitalizations for patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 also hit its highest number to date, with 1,336."


Apart from the number of reported cases continuing to rise, of perhaps greater concern is the increase of inpatient hospitalizations.

Our state's reopening was predicated on individuals and businesses assuming responsibility for following CDC guidelines. We've witnessed far too much behavior that runs contrary to those guidelines.
 
Oregons continued reopening is on hold "yellow" for now, largest county, Multnomah, was set to open Phase one, most others had applied to move to Phase two.
Utah is on hold, also, I believe.
I have continued to keep restocking, keeping pantry and freezer full, and a supply of paper products. I bought quite a bit of bleach and hand sanitizer in the beginning. But that is also on the restock list. I will be making my own bleach cleaning wipes soon, as my last Costco box is almost gone. (No desire to go to Costco yet, although they do require masks). Hopefully, the supply chain has adapted, however, it would be workers/truck drivers/restockers who are ill that could cause shortages, too.

I wish I saw more folks wearing masks. I have asthma and do not have a problem with it, Before my Mom died, she was advised by her pulmonologist to wear a mask when she out and about (this was several years ago). She had severe COPD and was on oxygen. She never had a problem wearing a mask. As a nurse, I have not encountered a co-worker or client who was not able to tolerate a mask, but that is only my experience.
 
Whether it's a continuation of the first wave or a second wave is just a name to give to statistics. I agree with the idea that taking measures to limit spread must be balanced with impact on the capacity to manage the sick and perished. Since there's so little to be done for a sick person (O2 and administration of marginally effective drugs), hospitals are probably not a big bottle neck. Even staff isn't because putting someone on O2 doesn't take much expertise. Willing staff, that might be a problem, cuz who wants to expose themselves? The action to shut down those militarily-based treatment centers says a lot to me about how much to worry about hospital capacity. Like I said about Sweden, if an effective treatment shows up soon, they were idiots, if an effective treatment is a long time from now, much less so.



Spock, beans are easy. Soak overnight, simmer until tender, then add salt. I most frequently add garlic and onion to them while they are cooking, but whatever herbs or seasonings you like can be added.

I really wonder where you are because I haven't experienced anything as bad as what you are describing. Lots of stuff goes in and out of stock, but it isn't hard to buy most of what we need and things have gotten better in the last few weeks.
I'm not sure, but advanced search an Tucson gives me 3 hits.

Spock, where do you live? We can get everything and are a third of your size. Prices have gone up.

No, I've been to Vulcan a few times and things are pretty good there. Spock must be out of town on a 5-year mission.

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There were 2 Vulcan towns in Romania, but I didn't manage to get to either on my ride across. I really wanted to do the LL&P in front of the town's sign :) But neither of those had the Star Fleet logo. That is awesome!

Let’s remember we’re among friends here. Let’s try to not personalize the discussion. We’re all here to share and learn.
 
FL reported about 2600 new cases today. Infection rate is up too.

In Orange County, CA, the head of the public health agency resigned because people protested her mandatory mask order so they showed up at her home, threatening not only her but 3 young children.

The agency changed from a mandatory mask order to "highly recommended."

We're repeating history. During the 2018 flu pandemic, there are anti-mask leagues and people rebelling against social distancing orders.
 
I'd still contend cases is the least predictive metric. Hospitalizations per capita and deaths per capita are significantly better. As is some gauge regarding % of health care capacity used/available. Reopening without overwhelming our health care resources is the first priority IMO. Unfortunately how successful reopening is depends heavily on the precautions each of us take - and I don't like what I am seeing around me, fewer and fewer masks and less and less social distancing...thanks to so many self appointed experts (less so here).
 
I'd still contend cases is the least predictive metric. Hospitalizations per capita and deaths per capita are significantly better. As is some gauge regarding % of health care capacity used/available. Reopening without overwhelming our health care resources is the first priority IMO. Unfortunately how successful reopening is depends heavily on the precautions each of us take - and I don't like what I am seeing around me, fewer and fewer masks and less and less social distancing...thanks to so many self appointed experts.

I have actually been seeing social media diatribes about how masks can cause serious health problems. I assume this is political nonsense, but it's posting now is worrisome.
 
A friend tells me they have a medical reason to not wear a mask even though masks are now required by my county. But to my knowledge that person has no breathing issues. What would be the legitimate medical reason a person cannot wear mask? My 90 year old mother has asthma and COPD and still wears a mask whenever she leaves her apartment. At first she complained she could not breathe with the mask on but she seems to have gotten use to it. When I first started wearing a mask it was uncomfortable but I too got use to it.
 
Unfortunately how successful reopening is depends heavily on the precautions each of us take - and I don't like what I am seeing around me, fewer and fewer masks and less and less social distancing...thanks to so many self appointed experts (less so here).

This interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm, was published June 6, I couldn't find if it already had been posted here. Sorry if it's a repeat. The section that caught my interest was this: "DB: "So we should be continuing to lockdown and wear masks and proceed with caution?

MO: I think one of the things we have to understand is we can’t just lockdown. I look at this with two guardrails. On one side is a guardrail where we are locked down for 18 months to try to get us all to a vaccine without anyone having to get infected or die. We will destroy not just the economy but society as we know that if we try to do that. The other guardrail is to just let it go and see what happens. We will see the kinds of deaths we just talked about and we will see healthcare systems that will literally implode. And not just for COVID-19 care, but for heart attack, stroke, and all other causes of disease in our communities. That’s not acceptable.

And so we’ve got to thread the rope through the needle in the middle. The very question you asked me about, what do we recommend to our older citizens of this country — our parents, our grandparents — what do we tell them? That’s the part that we haven’t done a good job of addressing. We have to learn not only how to die with this virus, which tragically we’ve had to do, but we also have to learn how to live with it.

Those are the kinds of discussions we need to have now. If we’re not going to lock up and we’re not going to open up willy-nilly, then what is the approach? And what we’ve been trying to do is facilitate those very discussions so that people can make hard choices. What are the things that we can do to change society that will help us maintain society to the best we know but at the same time also reduce transmission? That’s a key activity right now that public health needs to be playing a very important role in".


https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...IlEI8NTG0DsJc7BeyLyqJmlydIm-fkU7ngN2u3LzaPVxM
 
UPDATE: Thursday June 12 the record high of a daily cases in Florida was 1,698. The next day, Friday June 13, that record was surpassed to 1,902 cases in one day.

There have been an average of 1,098 cases/day since May 28. More venues are now open and more people are coming to Florida from out of state for "fun in the sun".

The 4th of July numbers are going to be interesting.


The Worldometers page is showing 2625 new cases in Florida for today (6/13). Looks like numbers continue to rise in Florida and a number of other states also. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 
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