Not So Fast-Here We Go Again

[W2R]

Not good news at all. We’re seeing an increase in cases, hospitalizations and fatalities here in Fl as well, and now not just South Fl.

How awful!!! My sympathies to you, your family, and other Floridians (like Moemg who posted above, and so many others too) who may need to hunker down again soon. What a frightening turn of events.

 

[Dtail]

+1

There is already talk of another shutdown.

Can't imagine any wide scale shutdowns irrespective of COVID levels.

 

[harllee]

I was planning a short trip this week but I now probably will not go because NC's numbers are looking so bad. DH and I are high risk so back to hunkering down at our house.

There may not be another official shut down in NC but there may be an economic shutdown if many people voluntarily go back to staying home. I don't know anyone who has eaten inside a restaurant yet and everyone I know says the numbers are too bad to go to a restaurant. I am afraid many of our restaurants will go out of business.

 

[brewer12345]

Can't imagine any wide scale shutdowns irrespective of COVID levels.

De gubmint don't need to forcibly shut things down. Consumers going to the mattresses can do so quite effectively.

 

[W2R]

Encouraging article today about Louisiana's COVID-19 situation:

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_a92f6c0a-acc7-11ea-ae0c-1fddc6e896e7.html

Summarizing our local COVID-19 history, the article says:

The rate at which confirmed cases were growing here in the 10 days after the first case was the fastest the world had seen over the first 10 days, [...]
By late March, Orleans Parish had the highest per-capita coronavirus death rate in the nation, and Jefferson Parish was No. 6. By early April, hospitals were on track to run out of beds and ventilators.

But then, among many other encouraging facts and statistics, the article concludes:

The state’s hospitals never ran out of beds or ventilators in the first wave of infections. And Louisiana parishes, once grossly overrepresented in indices of coronavirus misery, have by now mostly fallen out of national top 10 rankings for infections and deaths per capita.

Since we got clobbered by the first wave earlier than many other parts of the country, I have been hoping that the statistics in other states will also improve at some point. But I don't know that and it could be wishful thinking.

 

[Chuckanut]

Science Friday had a good interview with Dr. Fauci. He was upbeat on being able to test and trace as the summer progresses.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...une-12-2020-part-1/id73329284?i=1000477788425

Basically it comes down to what we already know/suspect: Keeping the nation/world locked down for long periods of time is not sustainable, we will see an increase in cases as we open up, the increases can be controlled with continued social distancing, proper hygiene, masks, and contact tracing, meds to treat CV19 will probably arrive before a vaccine, and wait until 2021 to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

He also had some interesting comments on why an AIDS vaccine was never developed, and why CV is not the same as AIDS.

 

[audreyh1]

Encouraging article today about Louisiana's COVID-19 situation:

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_a92f6c0a-acc7-11ea-ae0c-1fddc6e896e7.html

Summarizing our local COVID-19 history, the article says:



But then, among many other encouraging facts and statistics, the article concludes:


Since we got clobbered by the first wave earlier than many other parts of the country, I have been hoping that the statistics in other states will also improve at some point. But I don't know that and it could be wishful thinking.

I’ve been thinking that states that got hit hard early like LA - folks there will naturally be more cautious because they got to see how bad it could be.

It seems to be the states that weren’t hit so hard early on that have folks less willing to socially distance and the resulting spikes/ramping up of still the first wave.

 

[JustCurious]

Can't imagine any wide scale shutdowns irrespective of COVID levels.

I agree.

 

[Aerides]

I don't think we'll need widespread stay-at-home orders again. We have the data that was missing 3 months ago: we know where it's bad and getting worse, and where it's not. In early March there was basically zero testing, and no one had any idea.

With the testing finally at recommended levels in most places, hot spots can be identified in real time. You can see per capita by zip code cases and daily updates. This can be managed at city/county levels. You might have to do some targeted shutting down if people are stupid, but not widespread.

 

[USGrant1962]

I don't think we'll need widespread stay-at-home orders again. We have the data that was missing 3 months ago: we know where it's bad and getting worse, and where it's not. In early March there was basically zero testing, and no one had any idea.

With the testing finally at recommended levels in most places, hot spots can be identified in real time. You can see per capita by zip code cases and daily updates. This can be managed at city/county levels. You might have to do some targeted shutting down if people are stupid, but not widespread.

+1

 

[Ian S]

the increases can be controlled with continued social distancing, proper hygiene, masks, and contact tracing,

And therein lies the problem: none of these things are being done in any better than a haphazard way and resistance to such measures is only growing. The population has become inured to deaths equivalent to two 9/11 attacks every week. Restaurants, etc. will find they can't make a go of it under the distancing guidelines, so they'll force governments to abandon those guidelines. Those who remain concerned - and there are plenty of us - will just stay hunkered down until a vaccine is available.

 

[aiken]

And therein lies the problem: none of these things are being done in any better than a haphazard way and resistance to such measures is only growing. The population has become inured to deaths equivalent to two 9/11 attacks every week. Restaurants, etc. will find they can't make a go of it under the distancing guidelines, so they'll force governments to abandon those guidelines. Those who remain concerned - and there are plenty of us - will just stay hunkered down until a vaccine is available.

I assume the vast majority of people on this board are in the over 60 demographic. We SHOULD be concerned....particularly if we're overweight, have metabolic syndrome/type II diabetes, high BP, etc. Hunkering down is what we're supposed to be doing (as is yours truly). Young healthy people are at an extremely minor risk of dying from this virus.



The case data is increasing as one would expect from rapidly increased testing...the $64 dollar question is what will happen to daily deaths, which recently have been on a significant decline. Obviously it depends upon the demographic makeup of those increased cases.

 

[Moemg]

How awful!!! My sympathies to you, your family, and other Floridians (like Moemg who posted above, and so many others too) who may need to hunker down again soon. What a frightening turn of events.

We really expected it to happen so we are not shocked . We have no problem with hunkering down until the cases drop .

 

[audreyh1]

I assume the vast majority of people on this board are in the over 60 demographic. We SHOULD be concerned....particularly if we're overweight, have metabolic syndrome/type II diabetes, high BP, etc. Hunkering down is what we're supposed to be doing (as is yours truly). Young healthy people are at an extremely minor risk of dying from this virus.



The case data is increasing as one would expect from rapidly increased testing...the $64 dollar question is what will happen to daily deaths, which recently have been on a significant decline. Obviously it depends upon the demographic makeup of those increased cases.

Where %positive rate is climbing, it’s not due to increased testing. Also - increased hospitalization rates is not due more testing.

 

[explanade]

Restaurants, bars and churches are not the best places to be for extended time.

In the summer you can dine outside, where transmission is much harder. But around mid September, it becomes chilly in the evenings to dine outside.

 

[gwraigty]

I doubt that Ohio will shut down again, even if we start to see a spike. Literally, the state can't afford it.

Coronavirus: Next 100 days: ‘We’re going to have to live with this’

After the shutdown orders, sales and income tax revenues began to fall off sharply. DeWine ordered more than $700 million in spending cuts to balance the current fiscal year budget, which ends June 30. His administration estimates another $2.5 billion will have to be cut from the next fiscal year operating budget, which begins July 1. Nonunion employees will see a 3.8% pay cut; lawmakers are being asked to approve a pay freeze for exempt workers; unions are being asked to discuss ways to cut bargaining unit personnel costs.

About 6 weeks of a shutdown did this to the state economy. That doesn't include the hits to municipalities.

 

[brewer12345]

I assume the vast majority of people on this board are in the over 60 demographic. We SHOULD be concerned....particularly if we're overweight, have metabolic syndrome/type II diabetes, high BP, etc. Hunkering down is what we're supposed to be doing (as is yours truly). Young healthy people are at an extremely minor risk of dying from this virus.



The case data is increasing as one would expect from rapidly increased testing...the $64 dollar question is what will happen to daily deaths, which recently have been on a significant decline. Obviously it depends upon the demographic makeup of those increased cases.

I am 46 and although I am fatter than I would like, I am in good enough shape to go on strenuous high altitude hunts, cut and split 8 cords of wood a year, etc. I absolutely do not want to get this stuff. There are plenty of people like me who will withdraw until things get better.

 

[Midpack]

With an increasing lack of compliance with citizens wearing masks, maintaining distance and (presumably) heightened cleanliness practices, I’m much less interested in following Covid-19 as closely. So we watch out for ourselves and hope everyone else does OK. The only optimism may come from how uncommon the seriously vulnerable are, over 55 and with underlying health issues - most people under 55 are at low or very low risk. DW and I shouldn’t be high risk despite our age. We’ll see...

 

[harllee]

I assume the vast majority of people on this board are in the over 60 demographic. We SHOULD be concerned....particularly if we're overweight, have metabolic syndrome/type II diabetes, high BP, etc. Hunkering down is what we're supposed to be doing (as is yours truly). Young healthy people are at an extremely minor risk of dying from this virus.



The case data is increasing as one would expect from rapidly increased testing...the $64 dollar question is what will happen to daily deaths, which recently have been on a significant decline. Obviously it depends upon the demographic makeup of those increased cases.

My DH and I and all our friends (mostly age 65 plus) are continuing to hunker down. No one in my large circle of friends have dined in a restaurant yet and they all say they do not intend to do so for quite a while. My question is --what does this do to the economy? The over 65 year old age group account for 20% of consumer spending per the NY Times and for the over 60 year old age category it is at least 30%. If the over 60 year olds do not eat in restaurants, or travel or go to fitness centers etc how many of those businesses are going to make it? Some local restaurants have already closed for good and I fear many more will follow. If I were a restaurant owner I would be making every effort to try to get the business of the over age 60 crowd at this time by using any creative means I could think of but I have not seen this happening.

 

[brewer12345]

My DH and I and all our friends (mostly age 65 plus) are continuing to hunker down. No one in my large circle of friends have dined in a restaurant yet and they all say they do not intend to do so for quite a while. My question is --what does this do to the economy? The over 65 year old age group account for 20% of consumer spending per the NY Times and for the over 60 year old age category it is at least 30%. If the over 60 year olds do not eat in restaurants, or travel or go to fitness centers etc how many of those businesses are going to make it? Some local restaurants have already closed for good and I fear many more will follow. If I were a restaurant owner I would be making every effort to try to get the business of the over age 60 crowd at this time by using any creative means I could think of but I have not seen this happening.

Including all the knock on effects and all the outsized amounts of debt on balance sheets everywhere, I think the effect can most neatly be summed up by the vision of the circus train making a direct hit on the school bus full of boy scouts.

 

[Ronstar]

I don’t how anyone could expect anything but increased Covid cases after reopening.

Reopening just created more avenues by which the virus can spread.

 

[Corporateburnout]

Our state was one of hardest hit states in the country. As case positive numbers, hospitalizations and death rate been on a steady decline for the past two weeks (today's positives at 2%), we have started going to grocery stores and visiting with family and friends while social distancing outdoors with masks. All people we encounter in stores are wearing masks and the majority of people we encounter in our daily walks are either wearing masks or ready to put them on when they're close to us.

With the majority of people adhering to the recommended guidelines, we're hoping that our reopening phases that started 3 weeks ago will not increase to the numbers seen in other states. We're also hopeful that our extensive contact tracing program would help contain small outbreaks before they get out of control.

 

[Ian S]

In the summer you can dine outside, where transmission is much harder. But around mid September, it becomes chilly in the evenings to dine outside.

Here in Arizona especially in the Phoenix area, we're getting to the time of the year when eating outdoors becomes extremely unpleasant: 110F+ daytime temperatures and staying above 100 until well past supper time. Right now the humidity is low enough that patio misters can cool things a bit but in a couple of weeks, they won't work either as the monsoon humidity rises. With pretty much all covid-19 measures rising significantly right now in the state, I'm not optimistic about how the state will do health and economy wise this summer. So glad we made the move a year ago to red rock country where it's still fairly easy to avoid even the tourists.

 

[Gumby]

.... You might have to do some targeted shutting down if people are stupid....

No "ifs" about it. People will be stupid. They demonstrate that every day.

 

[audreyh1]

My DH and I and all our friends (mostly age 65 plus) are continuing to hunker down. No one in my large circle of friends have dined in a restaurant yet and they all say they do not intend to do so for quite a while. My question is --what does this do to the economy? The over 65 year old age group account for 20% of consumer spending per the NY Times and for the over 60 year old age category it is at least 30%. If the over 60 year olds do not eat in restaurants, or travel or go to fitness centers etc how many of those businesses are going to make it? Some local restaurants have already closed for good and I fear many more will follow. If I were a restaurant owner I would be making every effort to try to get the business of the over age 60 crowd at this time by using any creative means I could think of but I have not seen this happening.

Yes, opening or not, the economy will be reduced with a large segment not participating in many service industries where they traditionally have been big spenders.