Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[Dtail]

Florida and Texas have officially passed New Jersey in total cases according to Worldometer but their total deaths are much lower.

I also think that Arizona and Georgia will pass PA in a couple of days.

Yep fight for 3rd place.

 

[ABQ2015]

New Mexico has issued a 14 day quarantine for out of state travelers. My guess is bordered by TX and AZ gave the gov a right to be careful. Living 3 miles from NM will make travel difficult. Heck a trip to I-10 would add 45 min to my already 3 hour drive to Tucson only traveling through AZ. Luckley I have to plans to go to Tucson until August.

The NM Governor admits that much of this quarantine is "voluntary" although there is still "the possibility of enforcement."

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-new...quarantine-for-out-of-state-visitors/5779118/

Cases have been increasing significantly in NM near the El Paso border for a while and recently risen in some more rural areas near the AZ and TX border. I suspect many of those cases were due to TX opening their restaurants earlier than NM and then opening the bars, attracting New Mexicans. I also read that some near where you live were going to AZ to have high school graduation parties or to participate in a baseball tournament and brought the virus back. NM resort areas frequented by Texans have seen very small increases and I doubt there will be much quarantine enforcement in those towns with the possible exception of Santa Fe (where new cases have been steady).

Meanwhile in the center of the state, my county had a huge spike in new cases yesterday and the test sites are swamped today with twice as many people as usual. Thanks to predictions and advice on this forum, I restocked my cupboard and freezer this week so I could hunker down and continue my self isolation.

 

[Freedom56]

Or a history buff. The history of the Spanish flu pandemic is quite helpful to me in navigating this current mess.

There are some similarities to 1918 with respect to authorities downplaying the severity of the outbreak. However the Spanish flue came in waves. This one appears to be staying with us through the summer and is mutating to more infectious strains.

 

[gerntz]

There are some similarities to 1918 with respect to authorities downplaying the severity of the outbreak. However the Spanish flue came in waves. This one appears to be staying with us through the summer and is mutating to more infectious strains.

I'm aware of one new strain & it's been here for a couple of months.

 

[anethum]

Hmmmm

"In a peer-reviewed study of 2,541 patients hospitalized at Michigan’s six Henry Ford hospitals during the coronavirus peak, scientists found that hydroxychloroquine “cut the death rate significantly” without “heart-related side-effects.”

It's no wonder deaths have dropped: Med professionals are figuring out things that work for them.

Why didn't you include a link? Could it be because of the criticism the study received? Here's a link to an article about the study:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html

Here are some quotes from the article:

"Researchers not involved in the Henry Ford study pointed out it wasn't of the same quality of the studies showing hydroxychloroquine did not help patients, and said other treatments, such as the use of the steroid dexamethasone, might have accounted for the better survival of some patients."

"Researchers not involved with the study were critical. They noted that the Henry Ford team did not randomly treat patients but selected them for various treatments based on certain criteria."

"As the Henry Ford Health System became more experienced in treating patients with COVID-19, survival may have improved, regardless of the use of specific therapies," Dr. Todd Lee of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, Canada, and colleagues wrote in a commentary in the same journal

"Finally, concomitant steroid use in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine was more than double the non-treated group. This is relevant considering the recent RECOVERY trial that showed a mortality benefit with dexamethasone."

Hmmmm

 

[slingshot]

Florida and Texas have officially passed New Jersey in total cases according to Worldometer but their total deaths are much lower.

I also think that Arizona and Georgia will pass PA in a couple of days.

But masks are mandated in Az and by that reasoning, if masks are the answer, then Az cases should not rise?

TL/DR the summary is #flattenthefear Do everything you can to stay safe but get a POSITIVE outlook, this is not as bad as they told us it would be and we are going to be OK


I really don't mean to be contentious and realize that I've seen mods scold about the M*** word but...

For now, there is no ONE correct solution. Cloth masks might help a little bit but this is a tiny virus and only correctly fitted N95 masks + eye protection offer a 95% safety advantage. And we are told not to wear N 95 and save for the front line workers.

Social distance seems to help but there are particles of virus shed on things we may touch and we still don't really KNOW how far aerosol virus can be spread, we can only guesstimate based on models. Correct and frequent hand washing also mitigates infection spread.

Staying home if you are concerned about dying or becoming ill seems to be a safer bet. Real doctors and medical experts and scientists have been telling us this since February so I don't understand why anyone thinks they should disrespect local or federal politicians in July. There is a certain level of self responsibility and common sense that will lead to more desirable outcomes (like not getting sick) and poor decisions that will lead to poor outcomes.

There will always be outliers that do "everything" right and still have a poor outcome and there will be idiots that make dozens of poor choices and sail right through this.

Vaccine is going to be a toughie as this is a coronavirus. Treatment plans that save lives and drug combinations have already been modified and seem to be working. Death numbers have been reported to be going down. I only check my own county numbers so I can't say for all US or global.

I think this group is intelligent and well read and I would hope that we all decide on our own personal safety zone, it sounds like most have. We did the #flattenthecurve hashtag and it's now time to #flattenthefear!

 

[gerntz]

Why didn't you include a link? Could it be because of the criticism the study received? Here's a link to an article about the study:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html

Here are some quotes from the article:

"Researchers not involved in the Henry Ford study pointed out it wasn't of the same quality of the studies showing hydroxychloroquine did not help patients, and said other treatments, such as the use of the steroid dexamethasone, might have accounted for the better survival of some patients."

"Researchers not involved with the study were critical. They noted that the Henry Ford team did not randomly treat patients but selected them for various treatments based on certain criteria."

"As the Henry Ford Health System became more experienced in treating patients with COVID-19, survival may have improved, regardless of the use of specific therapies," Dr. Todd Lee of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, Canada, and colleagues wrote in a commentary in the same journal

"Finally, concomitant steroid use in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine was more than double the non-treated group. This is relevant considering the recent RECOVERY trial that showed a mortality benefit with dexamethasone."

Hmmmm

The data source was stated - HFHS. The criticisms don't refute the results that I see.

 

[easysurfer]

My two analogies about that state Texas and other states are in now:

1) If you fracture a bone and the doctors say wait 6 weeks for the bone to heal, then wait 6 weeks. Not 3 or 4 as that will just set things back. Better yet, wait 8 weeks.

2) Basketball analogy .... People were doing such a good job social distancing early on. Had we just kept that up, getting covid-19 under control shouldn't been a layup but not is like a half court shot.

Oh well, it is what it is .

 

[brewer12345]

There are some similarities to 1918 with respect to authorities downplaying the severity of the outbreak. However the Spanish flue came in waves. This one appears to be staying with us through the summer and is mutating to more infectious strains.

"History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes."

 

[brewer12345]

Looks like we are joining the party. Colorado reported 580 cases today, the most in at least several weeks.

 

[Aerides]

We did the #flattenthecurve hashtag and it's now time to #flattenthefear!

what curve is flat in AZ or TX or FL? fortunately, I did not flattenmyiq hashtag

 

[W2R]

Looks like we are joining the party. Colorado reported 580 cases today, the most in at least several weeks.

Ouch. I sure hope things improve soon for your state.

 

[brewer12345]

Ouch. I sure hope things improve soon for your state.

Actually, I goofed. That was the total cases for the last two days. Whew.

 

[W2R]

Actually, I goofed. That was the total cases for the last two days. Whew.

Oh good!

We had 1728 cases yesterday. Pretty discouraging. But not as bad as some parts of Texas from what I am reading.

 

[brewer12345]

Oh good!

We had 1728 cases yesterday. Pretty discouraging. But not as bad as some parts of Texas from what I am reading.

Wow. Louisina has a lower population than Colorado. Per capita, that is a lot of cases.

 

[timo2]

After seeing the upticks going on and pondering why, It seems governor of Texas has realized that if we are going to progress the economy at all then we need to get to the point where the folks that won't wear masks or social distance need to be the ones staying at home. So everyone else can get the economy running again. Right now a drag on the economy is people that are not following medical advice and wandering around in public cockily spreading the virus. Many mask wearing folks won't go participate in the reopening in a bid to avoid these people.

 

[6miths]

Herd immunity, AFAIK, with Covid, is an unknown. It might not exist. Or it might exist, but only for a short duration. Covid antibody immunity has not yet been proved or assigned any duration. At least I think that’s true. I’m not sure why this hasn’t been figured out yet.

Totally agree. At this point there is really no reason to be confident that there is a herd immunity scenario with this virus. It is a novel virus but from a family that the human population has not demonstrated the ability to develop herd immunity. At least four of the viruses from this family circulate continually in human populations causing the common cold (about 1 in 6 cases of the common cold). Also, no effective vaccine for humans has been developed against any member of this virus family despite some other members of the family being quite lethal in humans (SARS and MERS). Also, treatment with convalescent serum (giving antibodies from those previously infected) has not been shown to be highly effective in the disease caused by this virus as it is in some other infections. At this point, not getting infected seems like the best strategy but as one of my colleagues likes to say, 'You do what you want to do, you'll do it anyway.'

This absolutely may be true. And if so, you realize this is basically armageddon, right? As social animals, much of the population will lose their will to live if locked down and not allowed basic human comforts such as eating together.

The only solution would be absolute isolation for a month or so for the entire world. Lock everyone down completely 100% to break the chain. And I don't mean like last March/April, I mean complete break. Nobody allowed out of their home. Etc. I mean, really, really punitive lock down.

To save my sanity, I'm going to assume there is partial immunity. I'm also going to assume vaccines come on line, even if only partly effective. And finally, I fully expect us to get a vaccine shot perhaps twice a year for the rest of our lives. The early indications is there is some immunity in most people for at least a period of time. A vaccine would be similar.

No I don't really agree that it will be Armageddon. There have always been infectious diseases that could kill or injure a portion of the population. Some sporadic, some epidemic, some pandemic at various times. Some resulting in long lasting immunity and thus more amenable to protection with vaccination and others not at all or to a lesser degree. Several countries have seemingly been able to control this outbreak either before it really got going or after a significant outbreak. For various reasons, others have not. At some point though, it is very likely that all countries will take the necessary measures, either because they see them as necessary and wise or because they will be quarantined by the rest of the world if they do not. And yes if this virus is not controlled or its spread mitigated, then a large number of susceptible individuals will be lost and others impacted by whatever longer lasting non-lethal health outcomes occur.

I am sure there is some degree of immunity for some period of time in most challenged individuals. How protective this is remains to be seen as does whether vaccines can be developed that will induce useful levels of immunity. There is much hype about vaccines partly because there is now massive amounts of money at stake on the daily fluctuations of stocks but one needs to bear in mind that vaccine development in the past (and most of it is in the fairly remote past) was totally under the radar of the press and the general public was pretty much entirely unaware until a given vaccine was ready for use in the general population.

 

[Calico]

We had 2,099 cases today (NC). An increase of 470 from the day before.

Every day for a while now we have been exceeding the daily total from the day before.

I'm glad I restocked the fridge, freezer and pantry last week.

Meanwhile, I have family members (local but not in my household) who are planning to share a NC beach house for a week with six other people, starting on 7/11. The six other people come from four different households. Seven adults and two children in total.

They all claim they are "quarantining 100%" for ten days before the trip. Uh-huh. I'm sure that all five households define "100%" exactly the same way.

I love my family members, and I miss seeing them, but this just confirms the decision I made early on to not see any of them in person until corona goes on her way, or we have a treatment. I'm 64 and can't risk it.

 

[travelover]

Time to stock up on toilet paper again.

 

[brewer12345]

Time to stock up on toilet paper again.

Got plenty of that, but my supply of nitrile gloves is getting thin. Snooping around online for some is discouraging.

 

[LRDave]

Don’t fear the reaper.

More cowbell......

 

[CaptTom]

Got plenty of that, but my supply of nitrile gloves is getting thin. Snooping around online for some is discouraging.

I'm curious, why the gloves?

Is there any difference whether you touch your face (or anything) with your gloved hand or bare hand?

You can wash your hands between touching things, or use hand sanitizer. Unless you replace gloves between touching things, isn't that worse?

 

[Aerides]

I see a lot of folks still wearing gloves and I don't blame them. While we are now assured the virus doesn't readily transmit from surfaces - and I personally think that sounds logical - we've heard so many different directives over the months as there is still so much to learn. There are new revelations every day.

I think it's true the only risk from a surface is one that was recently sneezed upon directly. But if I had been in the habit of wearing gloves at the start there'd be no harm to keeping that up until there's a little more certainty.

And if we haven't all learned by now, we touch our faces a LOT. Unconsciously. Good intentions or not.

 

[Montecfo]

Gloves seem to provide mainly psychic benefits. I do not see anyone changing them.

 

[JoeWras]

I'm hoping that eventually N95 (or near N95) supply will catch up enough such that we can all wear them.