Tesla is off the rails

[Bluegrass]

To me, “That said, I should note that I invest in biotech.....” makes much more sense than “And this coming from a guy....”

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Wikipedia says the 100 kWh battery pack for the Model S weighs 625 kg. Hopefully a little less in the future.

The Model S is a 10 year old design. The Batteries in the Model 3 have higher energy density (Wh/kg) by over 20%. And the Cybertruck will almost certainly use a newer generation of cells with further improvements in energy density.

This is one example of many why the leader in EV's is such a good long-term investment. Because the improvements in EV's are happening on a faster timeline and there is more headroom for further improvements when compared to the much more mature gasoline drivetrains.

 

[NW-Bound]

Wikipedia says the 100 kWh battery pack for the Model S weighs 625 kg. Hopefully a little less in the future.

That's an energy density of 100,000/625 = 160 Wh/kg.

Wikipedia also says this about the Tesla 3 battery: "The Long Range version carries 4,416 cells arranged in groups of 46, and weighs 1,060 pounds (480 kg) in a 0.40 m³ volume; a density of 150 Wh/kg."

That's going backward! Something is wrong here.

By the way, the above number is the total battery weight which includes the metal casing and all the supporting parts. There are structural differences between the two chassis, I am sure, and that impacts the battery mechanical aspects.

But how about the energy density of the basic cells themselves? The S model uses the 18650 cell format, which is common with laptops and other consumer electronic products, and the Model 3 uses the slightly larger format of 2170. Is there a difference in energy density between the two?

Out of curiosity, I looked, and this site claims there's no difference or improvement. See: https://insideevs.com/news/342679/tesla-model-3-2170-energy-density-compared-to-bolt-model-s-p10.

However, our calcs indicate that the P100D 18650 cell has about the same energy density by weight and volume as the new 2170. This implies that all Tesla did with the new 2170 cell was package their best 18650 cell into a larger 2170 cylinder.

And so, at the current state of the art, the truck's 250-kWh battery would weigh 1,560 kg using the number from the S battery. That's 3,400 lbs. It's still a lot better than the 5,000-lb number using the LiFePO4 cells that I have.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Wikipedia also says this about the Tesla 3 battery: "The Long Range version carries 4,416 cells arranged in groups of 46, and weighs 1,060 pounds (480 kg) in a 0.40 m³ volume; a density of 150 Wh/kg."

That's going backward! Something is wrong here.

What's wrong is the source (Wikipedia). It's important to realize that the anti-Tesla misinformation out there is directly attributable to the threat Tesla poses to a wide swath of multi-billion dollar industries from auto manufacturer and dealers to oil companies, refineries, etc. Even the aftermarket auto parts business supplying oil filters, fan belts, fuel injectors, fuel pumps, alternators, MAF sensors, catalytic converters, spark plugs, spark plug wires, etc. etc. etc. are poised to lose big. Then we have the TSLA short sellers (TESLAQ) that are particularly active at trying to slow down Tesla and their plan to accelerate the move to sustainable energy. These people will edit Wikipedia with glee and joy for sport and hobby. They literally hate Tesla with a passion and have lost billions of dollars betting against them. So it's not a good idea to use Wikipedia as a source if you want accurate info.

So I rely on expert Jack Rickards who is a real straight shooter and has 30 years, hands on experience with EV's and batteries and associated electrical systems.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/2...teardown-highlights-performance-improvements/

"His analysis found that the improvements Tesla made with Model 3’s battery were not only made at the cellular level, but even more impressively at the pack level. The improved design of the Model 3 pack translates to an improved energy density at the pack level, from 126.7 Wh/kg in the Model S to 159.5 Wh/kg in the Model 3."

And so, at the current state of the art, the truck's 250-kWh battery would weigh 1,560 kg using the number from the S battery. That's 3,400 lbs. It's still a lot better than the 5,000-lb number using the LiFePO4 cells that I have.

I assume you are speaking of the battery in the top of the line Cybertruck which will be rated in excess of 500 miles of range. Again, I'm not sure where that misinformation came from but there is no way the battery will weigh 3,400 lbs!

I'm also curious why you are so certain the Cybertruck will have a 250 kWh battery? To the best of my knowledge, Tesla has not released that info yet.

 

[BigMoneyJim]

I'd say the Model 3 has been a pretty smashing early success, and I expect the Model Y to do maybe as well or better.

I'm incredibly curious to see how the semi and Cybertruck do. I just don't have a feel for that yet. My best guess is that the electric semis will take over some segment of the market, and that Cybertrucks will become more popular once people see them running about and being real trucks.

It seems like everything Elon is involved in is a wonderful bystander show. I've never paid $20k or more for a car, so I'll have to wait a while longer it seems for the used Tesla market to establish itself. Meanwhile I have my Nissan Leaf.

I'm incredibly fascinated about all the emotion sparked by hybrids, EVs, and Tesla in particular. I'm really not sure what's going to happen or who's going to profit. I see little reason to doubt Tesla's ability to build and sell at this point, but there is far too much emotion around the stock for me to gauge whether or not it's a reasonable investment.

I kind of expect the company to succeed and stick around, but I have no idea what the ROI of the stock might be.

I've never driven a Tesla, and maybe I sat in a Model X in a showroom once, so I have no idea if I'd find the 3 or Y comfortable. I kind of expect I'll go for a used Y or a Cybertruck in a few years.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I'd say the Model 3 has been a pretty smashing early success, and I expect the Model Y to do maybe as well or better.

I think management has better data and a better feel for the market than we could ever hope to. Elon has said on at least two occasions that he expects the Model Y crossover to outsell Models 3, S and X combined! A recent tear-down of the Model Y by Sandy Munro found that the Model Y is dramatically cheaper to build vs. the Model 3 due to efficiencies of design. So Model Y will raise production efficiencies (and thus profit margins).

I'm incredibly curious to see how the semi and Cybertruck do. I just don't have a feel for that yet. My best guess is that the electric semis will take over some segment of the market, and that Cybertrucks will become more popular once people see them running about and being real trucks.

I totally agree. This is a product that will grow on people as they begin to understand that the polarizing design wasn't chosen to be different, it's simply a function of how the product is engineered and built. The body of a normal pick-up is just hundreds of pounds of dead weight with no purpose other than to shed water and wind. The Cybertruck body IS the frame! It's the part designed to carry the 3,500 lbs in the bed or tow up to 14,000 lbs. down the freeway. The polarizing design is precisely what makes it such a capable work truck. Yes, it will sell like hotcakes and be production constrained for YEARS after it's introduction. They already have well over 1/2 million reservations and if it's anything like the Models S, X and 3, that's only the tip of the iceberg.

It seems like everything Elon is involved in is a wonderful bystander show. I've never paid $20k or more for a car, so I'll have to wait a while longer it seems for the used Tesla market to establish itself.

I encourage fellow TSLA investors who have already made big money on TSLA stock and stock options to be generous with their personal Teslas by selling them on the used market for reasonable prices and upgrading to brand new ones. Most of us can certainly afford to without stretching the retirement budget. But used Teslas have been holding their value extremely well compared to comparable gas cars, probably because they tend to run just as well with 200,000 miles on them as when they were brand new, albeit with 5-15% less range (which for most usage is simply not a problem).

I see little reason to doubt Tesla's ability to build and sell at this point, but there is far too much emotion around the stock for me to gauge whether or not it's a reasonable investment.

The key to being able to value Tesla is whether you believe Elon Musk when he projects Compound Annual Growth Rates of 50% (or just a touch under, like 45%). I've learned to doubt him at my own peril. When Elon says he will do something, he tends to do. It doesn't matter how many people are scoffing on the sidelines claiming it is literally impossible to do what he is proposing. The one caveat is that he tends to underestimate how long something will happen (although he seems to have learned how to under-promise and over-deliver in recent years).

I kind of expect the company to succeed and stick around, but I have no idea what the ROI of the stock might be.

There are too many variables to accurately project that with any confidence but, suffice to say, it will be superior to the overall market.

I've never driven a Tesla, and maybe I sat in a Model X in a showroom once, so I have no idea if I'd find the 3 or Y comfortable. I kind of expect I'll go for a used Y or a Cybertruck in a few years.

The vast majority of motorists have never even ridden in a Tesla yet! Driving one is an eye-opening experience in terms of experiencing the smooth, direct power and quiet, spaceship like propulsion and braking. They handle well too. Owning one (or more) is also eye-opening in terms of how it simplifies your life. No more scheduled oil changes and no more stops at gas stations during your busy day (99% of all charging tends to happen at your own home).

 

[OldShooter]

... I'm really not sure what's going to happen or who's going to profit. I see little reason to doubt Tesla's ability to build and sell at this point, but there is far too much emotion around the stock for me to gauge whether or not it's a reasonable investment. ...

Wise man. Some mania-propelled stocks do very well, many more do not. It is not possible to know ahead of time unless you are @RetiredAtThirty-eight.

... There are too many variables to accurately project that with any confidence but, suffice to say, it will be superior to the overall market. ...

IOW, it is only the faith of the true believers and the arrival of greater fools that supports the stock price. No one can "accurately project" from current reality. You just have to have faith.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Wise man. Some mania-propelled stocks do very well, many more do not. It is not possible to know ahead of time unless you are @RetiredAtThirty-eight.

Hey now! Please. Personal jabs are not needed nor do they help communication.

IOW, it is only the faith of the true believers and the arrival of greater fools that supports the stock price. No one can "accurately project" from current reality. You just have to have faith.

I don't know why you say that. It is well established that expected growth rates are a central part of any rational stock valuation. Yes, valuation requires projections based upon reasonable assumptions. But it sounds like you are saying all companies should be valued at the same "standard" growth rates even if the evidence indicates higher growth rates are indicated. Because no company could be better than average? And anyone willing to judge a companies prospects as better than typical is a "greater fool"?

 

[OldShooter]

Hey now! Please. Personal jabs are not needed nor do they help communication. ...

No jab. Really just repeating what you have said here many times.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

No jab. Really just repeating what you have said here many times.

Sarcasm is easy to recognize. Yes, it was a personal jab. Now, can we stick to the subject matter and not make it personal?

 

[Born2Fish]

Sarcasm is easy to recognize. Yes, it was a personal jab. Now, can we stick to the subject matter and not make it personal?

So TSLA is at 80% of its recent high. I have $150k cash in my tIRA. Is TSLA a 100 share "no-brainer BUY" in your opinion at this price?

 

[NW-Bound]

What's wrong is the source (Wikipedia). It's important to realize that the anti-Tesla misinformation out there is directly attributable to the threat Tesla poses to a wide swath of multi-billion dollar industries from auto manufacturer and dealers to oil companies, refineries, etc. ... it's not a good idea to use Wikipedia as a source if you want accurate info.

I don't think so. The disparity in the reported numbers may be due to many inadvertent causes. For example, a Tesla model comes in many different battery capacities, and they share the same case and supporting parts. The smaller-capacity batteries simply have voids in the internal space that are not filled with cells. Hence, the largest battery option in the group will have the best energy density.

Additionally, I have watched teardown videos of the Tesla batteries. I wonder if some people include the weight of the associated electronics and cooling system, while others may leave them out.

So I rely on expert Jack Rickards who is a real straight shooter and has 30 years, hands on experience with EV's and batteries and associated electrical systems.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/28...-improvements/

"His analysis found that the improvements Tesla made with Model 3’s battery were not only made at the cellular level, but even more impressively at the pack level. The improved design of the Model 3 pack translates to an improved energy density at the pack level, from 126.7 Wh/kg in the Model S to 159.5 Wh/kg in the Model 3."

Here, even the poster of the above referenced page sells the Panasonic cell short when he writes that the 18650 cell in the Tesla S is 3 Ah. The commonly accepted number is 3.2 Ah, and this is also the spec for the Panasonic NCR18650B cell that is available to the public.

I have a few hundreds of LG Chem cells that I am going to build into another pack for my home solar system. I have measured a few samples, and both the LG MH1 and the LG D2 cells clock as high as 3.3 Ah, even though the MH1 is spec'ed at 3.2 Ah, and the D2 at only 2.95 Ah. It is a very competitive world out there for cell makers.

Also, note that the Web page above says the energy density of the 18650 cell in the Tesla S is 240 Wh/kg, while that of the 2170 cell in the Model 3 is 247 Wh/kg. That's not a large improvement.

And yet, the article also says that:

"The change in form factor of its battery cells isn’t all good news, though, according to Jack, as the new chemistry results in a flammability temperature of just 150–180°F due to the higher energy density of its cells — compared to a flammability point of 350°F with the 18650 cells. The increased risk of flammability of the new cell design is likely why Tesla chose to upgrade the cooling system of the Model 3 pack, mitigating the increased risk at the cellular level."

So, it appears to me that the new chemistry is to reduce the cost of the battery to use less of the expensive cobalt while not hurting the capacity, despite the drawback of higher flammability. And then, the slightly larger physical format of the cell is for reducing cost of assembling them into a pack.

I assume you are speaking of the battery in the top of the line Cybertruck which will be rated in excess of 500 miles of range. Again, I'm not sure where that misinformation came from but there is no way the battery will weigh 3,400 lbs!

I'm also curious why you are so certain the Cybertruck will have a 250 kWh battery? To the best of my knowledge, Tesla has not released that info yet.

No, I am not at all certain about the battery capacity of the Tesla truck, and only repeating what Fermion wrote. Come to think of it, I think I have seen the guesstimate number of 250 kWh somewhere. I think it is reasonable with the range and the towing capability that is promised. The 3,400 lb number is just my simple extrapolation from the Tesla S.

We will have to wait for the production truck to really know.


PS. I weigh the LG Chem cell that I have at 45 grams. Exactly the same weight as the Panasonic cell in the Tesla. Son of a gun!

 

[aja8888]

So TSLA is at 80% of its recent high. I have $150k cash in my tIRA. Is TSLA a 100 share "no-brainer BUY" in your opinion at this price?

Oh man! I need to know too! I have a few hundred $K just looking for a place to sit while it doubles! Then I could order my new C8!

 

[NW-Bound]

Boy. My cash level is a 7-figure number, after I reduced my stock AA down to 55%. I don't know what to do with it yet, but plowing it into TSLA never crosses my mind.

And so, I bought some LG Chem cells, 8 more solar panels, and a 4th 3-kW inverter to have something to play with while hiding from the Covid virus. It's self-educational and also satisfying to this inquiring mind.

PS. I did look into buying some puts, but they are expensive.

 

[Animorph]

I wouldn't buy now, just because the stock has already gone up 260% this year from a not unreasonable starting point. It's likely to dip at sometime, though S&P inclusion could boost it a bit more. Q2 results will be announced on July 22 I think. That will be one turning point.

Model Y demand seems strangely low according to delivery times. They're delivered more quickly than Model 3's. There are clearly quality issues to work out, which may be slowing orders. It was expected to do well because SUV's are more popular.

The Cybertruck has a waiting list of 600,000 reservations. I don't even recall a Model Y waitlist. The truck is looking hugely popular.

I haven't seen much Semi info. However I am looking forward to seeing them replace older diesel trucks on the highway. They'll be faster, less smelly, and driving on Autopilot so they won't be encroaching on my lane all the time.

 

[Born2Fish]

Retired -

I'm not being snarky now, buying TSLA is a legitimate option.

TSLA was never on my radar while the correction was ongoing.

I reallocated my stock-heavy AA from the 2019-early 2020 run up in Jan/Feb.

I did sell off some REIT holdings and oil MLP after the correction started but well before the bottom.

As SPY fell I bought lots of SPY at incremental levels. I sold 90% of these SPY holdings when SPY recovered to 300.

Now I have lots of cash. I have recovered my losses. Ready to play again.

I know this is market timing but we appear to be range bound between 300<SPY<320-ish.

So we seem to be range bound at the moment.

Would love to make a killing trading some TSLA.

 

[aja8888]

I saw a Model Y in Walmart's parking lot this morning. I was surprised it was a Y as I first thought it was a Model 3. It appears to be more of a hatchback rather than a true crossover. It looks like all that was done to the 3 body was to modify the roof and add a hatch. I lifted a comparison photo from the web and here it is:

Thoughts?

 

[MRG]

I saw a Model Y in Walmart's parking lot this morning. I was surprised it was a Y as I first thought it was a Model 3. It appears to be more of a hatchback rather than a true crossover. It looks like all that was done to the 3 body was to modify the roof and add a hatch. I lifted a comparison photo from the web and here it is:

Thoughts?

View attachment 35678

The Y is bigger than the 3 by about 10% sits 6" higher. They share 70% parts between the vehicles. After market accessories for the 3 may not fit the Y, notably mats, mud flaps.... I have some on a slow boat from China. Should be here any month.

The Y has a huge back seat where the 3 is smaller. A seven passenger Y is in the works.They're similar but different. Hey the Y even has an off road assist for off road power distribution.[emoji850]

ETA: Quality of the build. Much has been written about horrible quality of the Y. Misaligned panels, unmatched paint..... I've seen photos of some horrible builds, now everyone is wanting to reject builds. Whatever, I ordered June 6th, received the Y June 30, built on June 20th. Vehicle had zero, 0.0, issues. Went over it three times with different Internet provided checklists, no build issues and wow! DW calls it a Space Ship, it drives like one. I spend more time watching surrounding areas and happenings, game approaching, side traffic..., instead of just steering.

Three different times in 600 miles the vehicle has reacted to traffic hazards much quicker than a human. I know; I was out braked by the vehicle!

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

So TSLA is at 80% of its recent high. I have $150k cash in my tIRA. Is TSLA a 100 share "no-brainer BUY" in your opinion at this price?

I don't know if you are pulling my leg here or just new to stock investing.

Everyone's financial situation is unique to their situation and there is no such thing as a "no-brainer BUY" in the stock market that applies to everyone equally. I think you must know this.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I saw a Model Y in Walmart's parking lot this morning. I was surprised it was a Y as I first thought it was a Model 3. It appears to be more of a hatchback rather than a true crossover. It looks like all that was done to the 3 body was to modify the roof and add a hatch. I lifted a comparison photo from the web and here it is:

Thoughts?

The Model Y has 4 times the volumetric cargo capacity of a Model 3. That alone is huge differentiator.

It also has more ground clearance, an easier entry/egress due to the seats being mounted higher off the cabin floor (in addition to the extra ground clearance) and is newer in engineering and design of the chassis and body structure with major sections of the rear subframe made from high pressure cast aluminum alloy instead of stamped steel. The Model Y has a much more panoramic view through the all-glass roof since the main roof cross-member in the Model 3 has been moved back from the center of the cabin to behind the heads of rear seat passengers.

While the overall styling of the cars is very similar, they are very different vehicles from a functional perspective as well as a vehicular design perspective. The Model 3 is a sports sedan while the Model Y is a crossover SUV with an incredible range of over 300 miles.

Different strokes for different folks.

 

[aja8888]

The Y is bigger than the 3 by about 10% sits 6" higher. They share 70% parts between the vehicles. After market accessories for the 3 may not fit the Y, notably mats, mud flaps.... I have some on a slow boat from China. Should be here any month.

The Y has a huge back seat where the 3 is smaller. A seven passenger Y is in the works.They're similar but different. Hey the Y even has an off road assist for off road power distribution.[emoji850]

ETA: Quality of the build. Much has been written about horrible quality of the Y. Misaligned panels, unmatched paint..... I've seen photos of some horrible builds, now everyone is wanting to reject builds. Whatever, I ordered June 6th, received the Y June 30, built on June 20th. Vehicle had zero, 0.0, issues. Went over it three times with different Internet provided checklists, no build issues and wow! DW calls it a Space Ship, it drives like one. I spend more time watching surrounding areas and happenings, game approaching, side traffic..., instead of just steering.

Three different times in 600 miles the vehicle has reacted to traffic hazards much quicker than a human. I know; I was out braked by the vehicle!

Tesla would do themselves better if they made the Y more like a conventional crossover like Audi did. I'd bet that would appeal to a bigger audience. I suspect that a future Y model will be more like that, and the X, which is huge in person, is a legacy design. The X also has those troublesome articulating side doors. This Model Y appears to be a more streamlined design to aid in battery range statistics.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Would love to make a killing trading some TSLA.

TSLA share price can be unpredictable and volatile. If that's what you are looking for as a stock trader than have at.

I think the most predictable way to build wealth is to buy and hold companies with superior innovation, growth and margins for the long term.

 

[Texas Proud]

Where did you get your numbers from? According to Tesla's annual financials (which are independently audited) Tesla has been cash flow positive since 1998 (quite strongly cash flow positive while building up a positive cash balance of over $7 billion) and they have been GAAP profitable for the last three quarters in a row (and expected to announce their fourth profitable quarter in a row on July 22 which will likely result in S&P announcing their inclusion in the S&P 500 shortly thereafter).

Let's see... most companies that do not require new cash are not doing stock offerings...



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/tesla-prices-its-secondary-offering-at-767-a-share.html




Also, check the total cash flow and you will see a significant amount of debt financing each year going back to 2016...


Yes, positive cash from operations, but that is not the value of a company...


OH, just checked quarterly and the March qtr had negative cash from operations.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Tesla would do themselves better if they made the Y more like a conventional crossover like Audi did. I'd bet that would appeal to a bigger audience. I suspect that a future Y model will be more like that, and the X, which is huge in person, is a legacy design. The X also has those troublesome articulating side doors. This Model Y appears to be a more streamlined design to aid in battery range statistics.

How could Tesla "do better" by selling a different car than the one they chose? They will sell everyone they can make.

I think the key point here that differentiates Tesla from other auto makers that sell EV's is that Tesla understands how important a long range is to the EV ownership experience. For convenience sake, it's important to be able to do all your charging at home rather than looking for a way to grab a quick charge in the middle of your busy day. This is why an EV is typically more convenient than gasoline power. I don't know anyone that has an oil refinery in their garage!

By combining class-leading aerodynamics with Tesla's superior drivetrain efficiency, they create more compelling vehicles than their competitors at affordable price points. There is a reason why Tesla is selling a lot more volume than any of their EV competitors and that has to do with paying attention to the details that matter to the customer.

 

[Born2Fish]

I don't know if you are pulling my leg here or just new to stock investing.

Everyone's financial situation is unique to their situation and there is no such thing as a "no-brainer BUY" in the stock market that applies to everyone equally. I think you must know this.

I'm not toying with you. I have held individual stocks for ~ 15 years or so including T, SO, PG, D, GSK, MO, BX, SWKS, COHR, CELG.

I did well with the selection, but sold several when I felt they had risen too far. Sold CELG at $130, BX at $60, AAPL at $200, COHR at $250, SWKS at $120. All of these had been sold before the recent Covid collapse.

Selling AAPL was a mistake but I have no regrets on the others.

As the market has recovered I have stood on the sidelines with cash and done short term trading with volatile issues.

You are a seasoned, confident, successful investor, and you strongly endorse TSLA.

So tell me - what is your price target for TSLA? What is it worth in your opinion?